| Election Name: | Next Northern Ireland Assembly election |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Outgoing Members: | 7th Northern Ireland Assembly |
| Seats For Election: | All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly |
| Election Date: | No later than 6 May 2027 |
| Leader1: | Michelle O'Neill |
| Party1: | Sinn Féin |
| Last Election1: | 27 seats, 29.0% |
| Leader2: | Gavin Robinson |
| Party2: | Democratic Unionist Party |
| Last Election2: | 25 seats, 21.3% |
| Leader3: | Naomi Long |
| Party3: | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
| Last Election3: | 17 seats, 13.5% |
| Leader4: | Mike Nesbitt |
| Party4: | Ulster Unionist Party |
| Last Election4: | 9 seats, 11.2% |
| Leader5: | Claire Hanna |
| Party5: | Social Democratic and Labour Party |
| Last Election5: | 8 seats, 9.1% |
| Leader6: | Jim Allister |
| Party6: | Traditional Unionist Voice |
| Last Election6: | 1 seat, 7.6% |
| Leader7: | Richard Boyd Barrett |
| Party7: | People Before Profit |
| Last Election7: | 1 seat, 1.1% |
| First Minister and deputy First Minister | |
| Posttitle: | First Minister and deputy First Minister |
| Before Election: | Michelle O'Neill (SF) and Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) |
| Leader Since1: | 23 January 2017 |
| Leader Since2: | 29 March 2024 |
| Leader Since3: | 26 October 2016 |
| Leader Since4: | 30 August 2024 |
| Leader Since5: | 5 October 2024 |
| Leader Since6: | 7 December 2007 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Mid Ulster |
| Leaders Seat2: | MP (not an MLA) |
| Leaders Seat3: | Belfast East |
| Leaders Seat4: | Strangford |
| Leaders Seat5: | MP (not an MLA) |
| Leaders Seat6: | MP (not an MLA) |
| Leaders Seat7: | TD (not an MLA) |
| Leader Since7: | 10 October 2024 |
A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.
After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[1] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[2] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[3] [4] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[5] [6] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[7] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[8]
This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[9] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Mike Nesbitt, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Claire Hanna, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, and People Before Profit (PBP) led by Richard Boyd Barrett.
See main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation. Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 (c. 13) specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[10] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.
After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[11] No government was formed by the deadline.[12] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline, the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 (c. 48).[13] [14] [15] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[16] [17] [18] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[19] [20]
On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[21] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[22] However, the DUP boycott continued.[23] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024.[24] [25] [26]
On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[27] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2" | Sample size | SF N | DUP U | APNI O | UUP U | SDLP N | TUV U | Green O | Aontú N | PBP O | Other | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | |||||||||
| 1–4 Nov 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,209 | 29% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 10% | |||
| 10 October 2024 | Richard Boyd Barrett becomes the leader of People Before Profit (PBP) | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 October 2024 | Claire Hanna becomes the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 August 2024 | Mike Nesbitt becomes the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | ||||||||||||||||
| 29 August 2024 | Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | ||||||||||||||||
| 19 August 2024 | Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | ||||||||||||||||
| 16–19 August 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,443 | 30% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | |||
| 2024 general election | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 7.6% | ||||||
| 10 May-13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,021 | 29% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% | |||
| Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | |||||||||||||||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 24% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 7% | |||
| Establishment of the new executive | |||||||||||||||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,046 | 31% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | ||||
| 14 January – 7 September 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey | ARK | 1,200 | 19% | 15% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 3% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 31% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | ||||
| 2023 local elections | – | 30.9% | 23.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 7.6% | ||||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,557 | 29% | 25% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | ||||
| Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | N/A | 30.6% | 23.9% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 6.7% | |||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,499 | 31% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 32% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 30% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | 1,000 | 30.9% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 10.8% | ||||
| 2022 Assembly election | – | 29.0% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 7.7% | ||||||
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 54% | 29% | 17% | +25% | |
| 3 February 2024 | O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland | |||||||
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% | |
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% | |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 March 2024 | Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | |||||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 36% | 48% | 16% | –12% | |
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | –42% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | –38% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | –38% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | –36% | |
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | –37% | |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 38% | 36% | 26% | +2% | |
| 3 February 2024 | Long becomes Minister of Justice | |||||||
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | –1% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | –1% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% | |
| 27 October 2022 | Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive | |||||||
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% | |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 August 2024 | Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | |||||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 35% | 35% | 30% | 0% | |
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | –4% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | –14% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% | |
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% | |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 August 2024 | Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | |||||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 41% | 28% | –10% | |
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | –17% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | –8% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | –5% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | –8% | |
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% | |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2024 | Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim | |||||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 20% | 70% | 10% | –50% | |
| 11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | –40% | |
| 21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | –34% | |
| 20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | –30% | |
| 4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | –32% | |
| 12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | –23% | |
The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Gavin Robinson DUP leader | Michelle O'Neill Sinn Féin VP - NI First Minister | Naomi Long Alliance leader | Colum Eastwood SDLP leader | Doug Beattie UUP leader | Jim Allister TUV leader | Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) NI deputy First Minister | NI Executive | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | ||||||||
| 29 August 2024 | Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | |||||||||||||
| 16 August 2024 | Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | |||||||||||||
| 4 July 2024 | Jim Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim | |||||||||||||
| 29 May 2024 | Gavin Robinson is elected as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | |||||||||||||
| 10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 46% | 53% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 29% | 52% | 39% | 1% | ||
| 29 March 2024 | Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | |||||||||||||
| 3 February 2024 | Naomi Long becomes Minister of Justice | |||||||||||||
| Emma Little-Pengelly becomes deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland | ||||||||||||||
| Michelle O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland | ||||||||||||||
| Establishment of the new Executive | ||||||||||||||
| 27 October 2022 | Naomi Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive | |||||||||||||
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Simon Harris Taoiseach Ireland | Mary Lou McDonald Sinn Féin President | Chris Heaton-Harris NI Secretary of State | Rishi Sunak UK Prime Minister | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | ||||||
| 5 July 2024 | Hilary Benn becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | ||||||||
| Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 36% | 39% | 20% | 16% | 3% | |
| 9 April 2024 | Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach | ||||||||
| 17 December 2022 | Leo Varadkar becomes Taoiseach | ||||||||
| 25 October 2022 | Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||||
| 6 September 2022 | Chris Heaton-Harris becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | ||||||||
| Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 7 July 2022 | Shailesh Vara becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | ||||||||