Foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections explained

Several nations have interfered in the 2024 United States elections. U.S. intelligence agencies have identified China,[1] Iran,[2] [3] [4] and Russia[5] [6] [7] as the most pressing concerns,[8] with Russia being the most active threat.[9]

Interference has included propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation campaigns using inauthentic accounts and websites on social media and the internet;[1] [6] [10] successful and unsuccessful attempts to hack presidential campaigns;[3] the promotion and denigration of specific candidates and causes;[5] and the posting of divisive content and conspiracy theories to cause domestic unrest and criticize the United States and democracy more broadly.[1]

Background

Before the election, current and former U.S. officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[11]

In March 2021, the National Intelligence Council released a report that found Russia and Iran carried out operations to influence the 2020 election. It also stated that China "considered but did not deploy" influence efforts in 2020,[12] although it increased efforts by the 2022 midterms.[13] A declassified U.S. intelligence report released in December 2023 found with "high confidence" that a "diverse and growing group of foreign actors" including China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba had all interfered in the 2022 midterms with influence campaigns on social media to covertly advance the interests their respective nations, exacerbate social divisions, and sow doubt in democracy, voting, and the result of elections.[14]

In 2022, the Foreign Malign Influence Center was set up at the Intelligence Community Campus-Bethesda as a command hub to fight electoral disinformation surrounding the 2024 presidential election.[15]

Analysis

In a statement on September 12, 2024, Matthew G. Olsen head of the Justice Department's National Security Division warned that foreign interference is a "clear and present danger" in the lead up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Among the nations he listed as posing a significant threat of interfering with the contest are Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea.[16] There are also indications Cuba is attempting to influence U.S. elections by targeting Spanish language social media users.[17] U.S. intelligence officials have described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy.[18]

The Associated Press cites U.S. intelligence officials as describing Chinese interference as being more aggressive in recent months but overall cautious and nuanced, instead focusing on American policy towards Taiwan and undermining "confidence in elections, voting and the U.S. in general." Iran was also described as more aggressive than in the past, while Russia was described as remaining the top threat.[18] Iranian interference is described as attempting to tip the election against Trump, which is believed to be partly in response to Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani. However, Iran has also targeted the Biden and Harris campaigns, which The New York Times described as suggesting "a wider goal of sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."[2] U.S. intelligence has described Russian interference as supporting Trump, viewing him as more skeptical towards arming Ukraine.[7] China, Russia, and Iran have all promoted disinformation criticizing the Democratic nominee for president.[1] [2] [7] Officials from the ODNI and FBI have stated that Russia, Iran, and China are using generative artificial intelligence tools to create fake and divisive text, photos, video, and audio content to foster anti-Americanism and engage in covert influence campaigns. China's efforts are primarily focused on down-ballot races.[19] The use of artificial intelligence was described as an accelerant rather than a revolutionary change to influence efforts.[20]

The scale of electoral disinformation has been described by experts as a "firehose of disinformation" and exceeding anything in prior elections.[21] Several social media platforms have scaled back efforts to remove disinformation on their platforms[11] following criticism from American conservatives who allege political bias.[22] The New York Times has described Elon Musk's X as "perhaps the single biggest factor in today's disinformation landscape"[21] after gutting most of the websites content moderation team and safety features.[23] Musk has repeatedly shared and posted "demonstrably false anti-Harris disinformation to his 200 million followers" according to a USA Today investigation,[22] has repeatedly posted false claims about the results of the 2020 election, and played "an outsize role in amplifying content promoted by Tenet Media" according to a researchers.[21] CISA has reportedly changed its strategy towards educating the American public about electoral disinformation instead of asking social media companies to take down false information.[22]

In advance of the 2024 election, American intelligence assessments found that Iran had covertly supported college protests against the war in Gaza using social media posing as students and having operatives offer financial assistance.[2] Pro-Israel groups have also spent large sums of money to support pro-Israel candidates against candidates critical of the Israeli government.[24] [25] Jordanian-American journalist Rami George Khouri wrote that "Such aggressive funding campaigns by AIPAC and other pro-Israeli forces may soon be perceived as another dimension of foreign interference in US elections, which has grown as a national concern since 2016."[26]

State-sponsored interference

Russia

On 25 October 2024, U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that a viral video depicting the destruction of mail-in ballots in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, was a hoax orchestrated by Russia to support Donald Trump's campaign and undermine Kamala Harris. The video, which showed an unidentified man tearing up ballots, was identified as part of a broader Russian disinformation campaign aimed at sowing doubt about the integrity of the U.S. election.[27]

Suspected state-sponsored interference

On August 28, 2024, a CNN investigation in collaboration with the Centre for Information Resilience found an orchestrated effort to influence voters through an orchestrated campaign "with hallmarks that could be consistent with a state-sponsored actor" highlighting 56 fake, pro-Trump accounts on X using stolen and altered images of "attractive young women" to espouse pro-Trump propaganda, conspiracy theories, and "anti-LGBTQ, anti-transgender, anti-vaccination, racist and xenophobic sentiments."[10]

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Hsu. Tiffany. Myers. Steven Lee. April 1, 2024 . China's Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms. April 3, 2024. . April 3, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240403091121/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/business/media/china-online-disinformation-us-election.html . live .
  2. News: Myers . Steven Lee . Hsu . Tiffany . Fassihi . Farnaz . September 4, 2024 . Iran Emerges as a Top Disinformation Threat in U.S. Presidential Race . The New York Times. September 4, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240904160052/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/business/media/iran-disinformation-us-presidential-race.html/. live. 0362-4331.
  3. Web site: Collier . Kevin . August 14, 2024 . Google says it observed Iran trying to hack the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns . August 16, 2024 . USA Today . August 16, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240816091952/https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/google-says-observed-iran-trying-hack-trump-biden-harris-campaigns-rcna166645 . live .
  4. Web site: Morrison . Dan . August 12, 2024 . FBI probes Trump hack, Harris team says it was also targeted in failed attempt . USA Today . August 15, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815191443/https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/12/trump-hack-harris-fbi/74775669007/ . live .
  5. Web site: De Luce. Dan. February 26, 2024 . Russia's 2024 election interference has already begun. April 3, 2024. . April 1, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240401102919/https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/russias-2024-election-interference-already-begun-rcna134204 . live .
  6. Web site: Barnes. Julian E.. Sanger. David E.. March 27, 2024 . Russia Amps Up Online Campaign Against Ukraine Before U.S. Elections. April 3, 2024. . April 2, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240402012022/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/us/politics/russian-ukraine-us-interference.html . live .
  7. News: Barnes. Julian E.. Thrush. Glenn. Myers. Steven Lee. September 4, 2024. U.S. Announces Plan to Counter Russian Influence Ahead of 2024 Election. September 4, 2024. The New York Times. 0362-4331. September 11, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240911074009/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/us/politics/russia-election-influence.html. live.
  8. News: Green. Justin. September 4, 2024. 2024's triple threats on election disinformation. September 5, 2024. Axios . September 5, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240905040909/https://www.axios.com/2024/09/04/election-disinformation-russia-china-iran. live.
  9. Web site: Zadrozny . Brandy . October 16, 2024 . The disinformation pipeline: How Russian propaganda reaches and influences the U.S. . 2024-10-17 . NBC News . en . Russia is the most active foreign threat to the 2024 election, according to U.S. officials..
  10. Web site: Polglase. Katie. Munsi. Pallabi. Arvanitidis. Barbara. Platt. Alex. Baron. Mark. Featherstone. Oscar. August 28, 2024 . 'My identity is stolen': Photos of European influencers used to push pro-Trump propaganda on fake X accounts . September 4, 2024. CNN . August 31, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240831193004/https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/28/europe/fake-maga-accounts-x-european-influencers-intl-cmd/index.html . live .
  11. Web site: Chalfant. Morgan. March 6, 2024 . U.S. braces for foreign interference in 2024 election. March 6, 2024. . March 11, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240311102441/https://www.semafor.com/article/03/06/2024/us-braces-for-foreign-interference-in-2024-election . live .
  12. Web site: Samuels . Brett . June 4, 2024 . Biden on foreign election meddling: 'All the bad guys are rooting for Trump' . September 4, 2024 . The Hill . August 27, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240827100426/https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4701991-joe-biden-foreign-election-meddling-china-taiwan-2024/ . live .
  13. News: Lyngaas. Sean. Lee. MJ. January 31, 2024 . Exclusive: Xi promised Biden China wouldn't interfere in 2024 election . September 4, 2024 . CNN . May 1, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240501141907/https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/politics/xi-biden-china-us-2024-election/index.html . live .
  14. News: Bo Lillis. Katie. December 18, 2024 . China, Russia, Iran and Cuba all tried to meddle in 2022 US congressional elections, intelligence assessment finds . September 7, 2024 . CNN . August 18, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240818235322/https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/politics/china-russia-iran-cuba-2022-midterm-election-meddling/index.html . live .
  15. Kirkpatrick . David D. . October 21, 2024 . The U.S. Spies Who Sound the Alarm About Election Interference . The New Yorker . November 3, 2024 . live .
  16. News: Thrush . Glenn . September 12, 2024 . Justice Dept. Official Calls Election Meddling a 'Clear and Present Danger' . New York Times.
  17. Web site: Reporter . Micah McCartney China News . 2024-10-08 . US detects China interference in 2024 election . 2024-10-08 . Newsweek . en.
  18. Web site: Klepper . David . September 3, 2024 . China-linked 'Spamouflage' network mimics Americans online to sway US political debate. September 4, 2024 . The Associated Press . September 4, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240904180359/https://apnews.com/article/china-disinformation-network-foreign-influence-us-election-a2b396518bafd8e36635a3796c8271d7 . live .
  19. News: Bond . Shannon . September 23, 2024 . U.S. officials say Russia is embracing AI for its election influence efforts . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20241107013737/https://www.npr.org/2024/09/23/nx-s1-5123927/russia-artificial-intelligence-election . 7 November 2024 . NPR.
  20. News: Menn . Joseph . September 23, 2024 . Russia, Iran use AI to boost anti-U.S. influence campaigns, officials say . The Washington Post . September 23, 2024 . September 24, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240924000713/https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/09/23/us-election-foreign-influence-russia-china-iran-ai/ . live . 0190-8286 .
  21. News: Myers . Steven Lee . October 23, 2024 . As Election Looms, Disinformation 'Has Never Been Worse' . The New York Times . November 3, 2024 . 0362-4331 .
  22. News: Meyer . Josh . November 1, 2024 . Fake video of Georgia voter fraud is Russian misinformation, US officials say . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20241107014209/https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/01/georgia-voter-fraud-video-fake-russia/75993122007/ . 7 November 2024 . November 3, 2024 . USA Today.
  23. News: Meyer . Josh . November 1, 2024 . Fake video of Georgia voter fraud is Russian misinformation, US officials say . USA Today . November 3, 2024 .
  24. News: Pro-Israel US groups plan $100m effort to unseat progressives over Gaza . The Guardian . 22 April 2024 . 5 September 2024 . 27 September 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240927075117/https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/20/pro-israel-groups-gaza-us-elections . live .
  25. News: The pro-Israel groups planning to spend millions in US elections . The Guardian . 22 April 2024 . 5 September 2024 . 27 September 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240927075143/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/aipac-pro-israel-lobby-group-us-elections . live .
  26. News: Rami . G Khouri . AIPAC is growing desperate . Al Jazeera . 11 August 2024 . 5 September 2024 . 15 September 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240915024727/https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/8/11/aipac-is-growing-desperate . live .
  27. News: Meyer . Josh . 27 October 2024 . US intelligence says Russia is behind video of ballots being destroyed in Pennsylvania . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20241107013939/https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/26/russia-fake-video-pennsylvania-ballots/75868222007/ . 7 November 2024 . 28 October 2024 . USA Today.

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