List of election bellwether counties in the United States explained

Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.

The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States[1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.

Significant bellwethers

Deviation in one election

The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980.[2] [3]

Election year of deviation!scope="col"
CountyStateCounty winnerVotesNational winnerLast deviation
1988BlaineMichael Dukakis1,4601,402George H. W. Bush1912
1992EssexGeorge H. W. Bush8,2786,717Bill Clinton1976
2000PinellasAl Gore200,657184,849George W. Bush1976
2004NicolletJohn Kerry8,7978,689
Sullivan11,43410,142
2012AlbanyMitt Romney7,8667,458Barack Obama
2016MercedHillary Clinton37,31728,725Donald Trump1968
San Bernardino340,833271,2401976
San Joaquin121,12488,936
Stanislaus81,64778,4941968
Winnebago55,71355,6241976
2020BremerDonald Trump8,2945,958Joe Biden
Cortland10,78910,369
Essex1,7731,405
Hidalgo1,1208231968
Juneau8,7494,7461960
Marquette5,7193,2391976
Otsego14,38212,975
Ottawa14,6289,0081960
Richland4,8713,9951976
Sawyer5,9094,4981960
Shiawassee23,14915,3471976
Valencia17,36414,6231948
Van Buren21,59116,8031976
Vigo23,54518,2131952
Warren4,6763,0901976
Washington10,1946,761
Westmoreland5,3184,5011960
Wood35,75730,6171976
2024ClallamKamala HarrisTBATBADonald Trump1976

Deviations in two elections

The following 95 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[2]

Comparision with random distribution

The 125 bellwether counties have had 85% accuracy over the course of 44 years. While this might seem impressive, it's not.The 125 most accurate bellwether counties from a 50/50 distribution would have an accuracy of 80%, but since the winner of the presidential elections from 1980 on got about 53.1% of votes (excluding third parties), the best comparison would be a random distribution with 53.1% accuracy, making the accuracy 84%.

See also

Notes

  1. Web site: How many counties are in the United States?. August 3, 2018 . Reunion Technology Inc.. June 10, 2022.
  2. Web site: Leip . David . Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . 2024-11-08 . uselectionatlas.org.
  3. Web site: Obeng. Adam. 26 April 2016. There Are No Bellwether Counties. November 18, 2020. The Huffington Post.

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