2004 United States presidential election in Illinois explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

The 2004 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Illinois was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 10.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A reliable blue state that no Republican has won since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, Illinois voted for Democratic Senator John Kerry in 2004 with almost 55% of the vote.

Kerry's victory in Illinois was primarily due to carrying seventy percent of the vote in the Chicago area's Cook County, where about 43% of Illinois' population resides. Amongst the remaining 57% of the population, President George W. Bush won 54.6% (1,749,203 votes) to 45.3% (1,452,265 votes). President Bush was victorious in Chicago's collar counties, although the results in those counties were narrower than his victories downstate.

As of the 2024 presidential election, this was the last presidential election in which a Democrat failed to carry any of Chicago's collar counties. This is the first election in which the Republican nominee has won the national popular vote without carrying Illinois. It also marks the only occurrence in which Illinois has voted for the losing candidate in two consecutive presidential elections (after it had voted against Bush in 2000). Bush was the first Republican to ever win two terms without ever carrying the state.

Primaries

The primaries and general elections coincided with those for Senate and Congress, as well as those for state offices.

Turnout

For the state-run primaries (Democratic and Republican), turnout was 25.23%, with 1,801,090 votes cast.^{[1] [2]} For the general election, turnout was 70.33%, with 5,274,322 votes cast.^{[1] [2]}

Democratic

See main article: 2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary.

The 2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary was held on March 16 in the U.S. state of Illinois as one of the Democratic Party's statewide nomination contests ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

By the time of the Illinois primary, Kerry was seen as having all but formally secured the nomination.

2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary^[3] ! style="text-align:left;"

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
John Kerry	873,230	71.72	155
John Edwards (withdrawn)	131,966	10.84	1
Carol Moseley Braun (withdrawn)	53,249	4.37	0
Howard Dean (withdrawn)	47,343	3.89	0
Al Sharpton (withdrawn)	36,123	2.97	0
Dennis Kucinich	28,083	2.31	0
Joe Lieberman (withdrawn)	24,354	2.00	0
Wesley Clark (withdrawn)	19,304	1.59	0
Lyndon LaRouche	3,863	0.32	0
Total	1,217,515	100%	156

Republican

See main article: 2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary. The 2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary was held on March 16, 2004, in the U.S. state of Illinois as one of the Republican Party's state primaries ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

Incumbent president George W. Bush won the primary. Bush was running for reelection without a major opponents, and with no opponents on the ballot in Illinois.

Illinois assigned 60 directly elected delegates (the state had another 13 delegates that were not directly elected by voters).^[4] The Illinois primary was a so-called "Loophole" primary. This meant that the statewide presidential preference vote was a "beauty contest", from which no delegates would be assigned. Instead, the delegates were assigned by separate direct-votes on delegate candidates (whose proclaimed presidential preferences were listed beside their names on the ballot).^[4] These delegates were noted voted on at-large by a state vote, but rather by congressional district votes.^[4] The number of delegates each congressional district would be able to elect had been decided based upon the strength of that district's vote for the Republican nominee (Bush) in the previous 2000 election.^[4] This meant that four delegates each were elected from Illinois's 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, and 19th congressional districts, three delegates each were elected from Illinois's 12th and 17th congressional districts, and two delegates each were elected from Illinois's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th congressional districts ^[4]

Ten of the remaining delegates not directly elected by congressional district were selected at the Illinois Republican Party Convention, and were unpledged delegates.^[4] The other three would be unplugged ex-officio delegates, roles filled by the states National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Illinois's Republican Party.^[4]

Colspan=4	2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
George W. Bush (incumbent)	583,575	100%	60
Totals	583,575	100%	60

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[5]

!Source!Ranking

D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. Out of the 12 polls taken, Kerry won 9 of them with 52% or higher. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 54% to Bush with 41%.^[6]

Fundraising

Bush raised $6,892,187.^[7] Kerry raised $7,100,400.^[8]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election season because it was expected not to be competitive and Kerry had a solid lead in the state.^{[9] [10]}

Analysis

Illinois has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 1992 on, each time by a double-digit margin. Prior to 1992, Illinois was considered a swing state with perhaps a slight Republican lean; until 2000, no Republican had won the White House without carrying Illinois, and it voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1988 except 1960 and 1964, even voting against Jimmy Carter in his winning 1976 campaign. The blue trend in the "Land of Lincoln" in presidential elections can be largely attributed to the dramatic expansion of the Democratic margin in Cook County, which contains the city of Chicago and its inner suburbs and makes up about 41.2% of the state's population.^[11] While Democrats routinely won Cook County following the New Deal realignment except in some Republican landslide years (1952, 1956, 1972), until 1996, they did not themselves crack 60% in the county except in their own landslides of 1936 and 1964. In 1992, however, Clinton got 58.2% of the vote in Cook County, approaching 60% and a higher vote share than any nominee had received in the county since 1964, despite the election having three major participants. In 1996, Clinton got 66.8% of the vote, blowing past Franklin Roosevelt's and Lyndon Johnson's vote shares in 1936 and 1964, respectively, and Gore only improved on this in 2000. In 2004, John Kerry became the first nominee of any party to crack 70% in Cook County since Warren G. Harding in 1920, and the Democrat has never been below 70% in the county since.

In addition, the historically Republican "collar counties" outside Chicago began trending less strongly Republican in the Clinton years, and this continued into the Bush years. In 1996, Clinton became the first Democrat to crack 40% in the largest collar county, DuPage County, since 1964, and Gore slightly improved on Clinton's vote share in 2000, holding Bush to a 13.3% margin in a county Ford had carried by 40.5% in 1976 and George H. W. Bush, by 39.4% in 1988. In 2004, John Kerry improved on Gore's vote share in DuPage County by 2.9%, holding Bush to a single-digit margin of 9.6%--the smallest Republican margin of victory in the county since 1892 (apart from the 1912 election, when the Republican Party was divided and DuPage County voted for Theodore Roosevelt).

Outside the Chicago area, Kerry performed well in the traditionally Democratic region of Metro East, as well as in Champaign County, a moderately populated historically Republican county that has voted Democratic in every election from 1992 on. Bush had done well in most of rural Illinois in 2000, and deepened his support there in 2004. However, given the developments in massively-populated Cook and DuPage Counties, this was not enough to materially influence the result.

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last election in which DeKalb County, DuPage County, Kane County, Lake County, Will County, and Winnebago County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.^[12]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Illinois
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,891,550	54.82%	21
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,345,946	44.48%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	32,442	0.62%	0
	Independent	Write-ins	4,384	0.08%	0
Totals			5,274,322	100.00%	21
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					56.0%

Results by county

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%		%
	Adams		10,511		33.39%		20,834		66.19%		132		0.42%		-10,323		-32.80%		31,477
	Alexander		2,016		52.05%		1,831		47.28%		26		0.67%		185		4.78%		3,873
	Bond		3,228		43.81%		4,068		55.20%		73		0.99%		-840		-11.40%		7,369
	Boone		8,286		42.40%		11,132		56.97%		123		0.63%		-2,846		-14.56%		19,541
	Brown		895		34.62%		1,679		64.95%		11		0.43%		-784		-30.33%		2,585
	Bureau		7,961		44.47%		9,822		54.87%		119		0.66%		-1,861		-10.40%		17,902
	Calhoun		1,367		50.52%		1,317		48.67%		22		0.81%		50		1.85%		2,706
	Carroll		3,537		43.48%		4,534		55.73%		64		0.79%		-997		-12.26%		8,135
	Cass		2,492		43.72%		3,163		55.49%		45		0.79%		-671		-11.77%		5,700
	Champaign		41,524		50.37%		39,896		48.40%		1,014		1.23%		1,628		1.97%		82,434
	Christian		6,112		40.03%		9,044		59.24%		111		0.73%		-2,932		-19.20%		15,267
	Clark		2,877		35.93%		5,082		63.47%		48		0.60%		-2,205		-27.54%		8,007
	Clay		2,101		32.06%		4,416		67.38%		37		0.56%		-2,315		-35.32%		6,554
	Clinton		6,797		39.68%		10,219		59.65%		115		0.67%		-3,422		-19.98%		17,131
	Coles		9,566		41.99%		13,015		57.13%		199		0.87%		-3,449		-15.14%		22,780
	Cook		1,439,724		70.25%		597,405		29.15%		12,305		0.60%		842,319		41.10%		2,049,434
	Crawford		3,194		34.23%		6,083		65.18%		55		0.59%		-2,889		-30.96%		9,332
	Cumberland		1,862		34.38%		3,497		64.57%		57		1.05%		-1,635		-30.19%		5,416
	DeKalb		19,263		47.25%		21,095		51.74%		410		1.01%		-1,832		-4.49%		40,768
	DeWitt		2,836		36.37%		4,920		63.09%		42		0.54%		-2,084		-26.72%		7,798
	Douglas		2,767		32.40%		5,702		66.77%		71		0.83%		-2,935		-34.37%		8,540
	DuPage		180,097		44.75%		218,902		54.39%		3,447		0.86%		-38,805		-9.64%		402,446
	Edgar		3,093		36.69%		5,258		62.38%		78		0.93%		-2,165		-25.69%		8,429
	Edwards		930		27.65%		2,412		71.70%		22		0.65%		-1,482		-44.05%		3,364
	Effingham		4,388		26.96%		11,774		72.33%		116		0.71%		-7,386		-45.37%		16,278
	Fayette		3,571		37.40%		5,880		61.58%		98		1.03%		-2,309		-24.18%		9,549
	Ford		1,912		29.51%		4,511		69.62%		56		0.86%		-2,599		-40.11%		6,479
	Franklin		8,816		45.56%		10,388		53.68%		148		0.76%		-1,572		-8.12%		19,352
	Fulton		9,080		53.30%		7,818		45.89%		137		0.80%		1,262		7.41%		17,035
	Gallatin		1,573		48.78%		1,619		50.20%		33		1.02%		-46		-1.43%		3,225
	Greene		2,457		40.49%		3,559		58.65%		52		0.86%		-1,102		-18.16%		6,068
	Grundy		8,463		42.68%		11,198		56.47%		170		0.86%		-2,735		-13.79%		19,831
	Hamilton		1,814		40.19%		2,653		58.77%		47		1.04%		-839		-18.59%		4,514
	Hancock		3,975		40.16%		5,837		58.97%		87		0.88%		-1,862		-18.81%		9,899
	Hardin		923		37.87%		1,501		61.59%		13		0.53%		-578		-23.72%		2,437
	Henderson		2,269		54.64%		1,857		44.71%		27		0.65%		412		9.92%		4,153
	Henry		11,877		47.05%		13,212		52.34%		152		0.60%		-1,335		-5.29%		25,241
	Iroquois		3,832		27.70%		9,914		71.66%		89		0.64%		-6,082		-43.96%		13,835
	Jackson		14,300		55.37%		11,190		43.33%		336		1.30%		3,110		12.04%		25,826
	Jasper		1,781		33.38%		3,529		66.14%		26		0.49%		-1,748		-32.76%		5,336
	Jefferson		6,713		39.61%		10,160		59.95%		75		0.44%		-3,447		-20.34%		16,948
	Jersey		4,597		45.35%		5,435		53.62%		105		1.04%		-838		-8.27%		10,137
	Jo Daviess		5,311		45.85%		6,174		53.30%		99		0.85%		-863		-7.45%		11,584
	Johnson		1,813		30.91%		3,997		68.15%		55		0.94%		-2,184		-37.24%		5,865
	Kane		73,813		44.12%		92,065		55.03%		1,419		0.85%		-18,252		-10.91%		167,297
	Kankakee		20,003		44.42%		24,739		54.93%		294		0.65%		-4,736		-10.52%		45,036
	Kendall		12,497		38.42%		19,776		60.80%		254		0.78%		-7,279		-22.38%		32,527
	Knox		13,403		54.25%		11,111		44.97%		194		0.79%		2,292		9.28%		24,708
	Lake		134,352		48.80%		139,081		50.52%		1,862		0.68%		-4,729		-1.72%		275,295
	LaSalle		24,263		47.83%		26,101		51.45%		365		0.72%		-1,838		-3.62%		50,729
	Lawrence		2,518		37.42%		4,162		61.85%		49		0.73%		-1,644		-24.43%		6,729
	Lee		6,416		40.41%		9,307		58.62%		153		0.96%		-2,891		-18.21%		15,876
	Livingston		5,632		35.11%		10,316		64.32%		91		0.57%		-4,684		-29.20%		16,039
	Logan		4,273		31.73%		9,112		67.66%		82		0.61%		-4,839		-35.93%		13,467
	Macon		23,341		45.11%		28,118		54.34%		287		0.55%		-4,777		-9.23%		51,746
	Macoupin		11,193		49.12%		11,413		50.09%		179		0.79%		-220		-0.97%		22,785
	Madison		63,399		51.26%		59,384		48.02%		895		0.72%		4,015		3.25%		123,678
	Marion		7,694		44.67%		9,413		54.65%		117		0.68%		-1,719		-9.98%		17,224
	Marshall		2,806		42.62%		3,734		56.71%		44		0.67%		-928		-14.09%		6,584
	Mason		3,215		44.76%		3,907		54.39%		61		0.85%		-692		-9.63%		7,183
	Massac		2,805		37.78%		4,578		61.66%		41		0.55%		-1,773		-23.88%		7,424
	McDonough		7,119		47.69%		7,656		51.28%		154		1.03%		-537		-3.60%		14,929
	McHenry		50,330		39.34%		76,412		59.72%		1,206		0.94%		-26,082		-20.38%		127,948
	McLean		29,877		41.72%		41,276		57.63%		467		0.65%		-11,399		-15.92%		71,620
	Menard		2,137		32.51%		4,408		67.05%		29		0.44%		-2,271		-34.55%		6,574
	Mercer		4,512		50.28%		4,405		49.09%		57		0.64%		107		1.19%		8,974
	Monroe		6,788		41.47%		9,468		57.84%		114		0.70%		-2,680		-16.37%		16,370
	Montgomery		5,979		46.24%		6,851		52.99%		100		0.77%		-872		-6.74%		12,930
	Morgan		5,650		37.22%		9,392		61.87%		138		0.91%		-3,742		-24.65%		15,180
	Moultrie		2,388		36.93%		4,028		62.30%		50		0.77%		-1,640		-25.36%		6,466
	Ogle		9,018		37.43%		14,918		61.92%		155		0.64%		-5,900		-24.49%		24,091
	Peoria		41,121		49.68%		41,051		49.60%		599		0.72%		70		0.08%		82,771
	Perry		4,770		45.76%		5,589		53.61%		66		0.63%		-819		-7.86%		10,425
	Piatt		3,124		36.38%		5,392		62.80%		70		0.82%		-2,268		-26.42%		8,586
	Pike		2,849		35.70%		5,032		63.06%		99		1.24%		-2,183		-27.36%		7,980
	Pope		918		37.68%		1,500		61.58%		18		0.74%		-582		-23.89%		2,436
	Pulaski		1,372		44.14%		1,720		55.34%		16		0.51%		-348		-11.20%		3,108
	Putnam		1,704		50.84%		1,623		48.42%		25		0.75%		81		2.42%		3,352
	Randolph		6,771		45.27%		8,076		54.00%		109		0.73%		-1,305		-8.73%		14,956
	Richland		2,529		32.64%		5,153		66.50%		67		0.86%		-2,624		-33.86%		7,749
	Rock Island		39,880		56.99%		29,663		42.39%		429		0.61%		10,217		14.60%		69,972
	Saline		4,697		39.76%		7,057		59.73%		60		0.51%		-2,360		-19.98%		11,814
	Sangamon		38,630		40.50%		55,904		58.61%		841		0.88%		-17,274		-18.11%		95,375
	Schuyler		1,594		39.54%		2,403		59.61%		34		0.84%		-809		-20.07%		4,031
	Scott		927		35.17%		1,696		64.34%		13		0.49%		-769		-29.17%		2,636
	Shelby		3,744		35.40%		6,753		63.85%		80		0.76%		-3,009		-28.45%		10,577
	St. Clair		62,410		55.14%		50,203		44.35%		576		0.51%		12,207		10.78%		113,189
	Stark		1,189		38.84%		1,841		60.14%		31		1.01%		-652		-21.30%		3,061
	Stephenson		8,913		41.81%		12,212		57.28%		195		0.91%		-3,299		-15.47%		21,320
	Tazewell		25,814		41.41%		36,058		57.84%		466		0.75%		-10,244		-16.43%		62,338
	Union		3,735		40.96%		5,333		58.48%		51		0.56%		-1,598		-17.52%		9,119
	Vermilion		14,726		43.68%		18,731		55.56%		257		0.76%		-4,005		-11.88%		33,714
	Wabash		1,752		29.17%		4,212		70.13%		42		0.70%		-2,460		-40.96%		6,006
	Warren		3,938		46.56%		4,474		52.90%		45		0.53%		-536		-6.34%		8,457
	Washington		2,986		36.85%		5,072		62.59%		46		0.57%		-2,086		-25.74%		8,104
	Wayne		2,139		25.81%		6,102		73.63%		46		0.56%		-3,963		-47.82%		8,287
	White		3,071		37.00%		5,180		62.40%		50		0.60%		-2,109		-25.41%		8,301
	Whiteside		13,723		51.07%		12,959		48.22%		191		0.71%		764		2.84%		26,873
	Will		117,172		46.94%		130,728		52.37%		1,709		0.68%		-13,556		-5.43%		249,609
	Williamson		11,685		39.00%		18,086		60.37%		189		0.63%		-6,401		-21.37%		29,960
	Winnebago		59,740		49.20%		60,782		50.06%		903		0.74%		-1,042		-0.86%		121,425
	Woodford		6,005		31.94%		12,698		67.54%		99		0.53%		-6,693		-35.60%		18,802
Totals	2,891,550	54.82%	2,345,946	44.48%	36,826	0.70%	545,604	10.34%	5,274,322

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Franklin (Largest city: West Frankfort)
• Gallatin (Largest city: Shawneetown)
• Henry (Largest city: Kewanee)
• LaSalle (Largest city: Ottawa)
• Macon (Largest city: Decatur)
• Macoupin (Largest city: Carlinville)
• Montgomery (Largest city: Litchfield)
• Perry (Largest city: Du Quoin)
• Pulaski (Largest city: Mounds)

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of the 19 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.^[13]

District	Kerry	Bush	Representative
		83%	17%		Bobby Rush
		84%	16%		Jesse Jackson Jr.
	59%	41%		Bill Lipinski
			Dan Lipinski
		79%	21%		Luis Gutierrez
		67%	33%		Rahm Emanuel
		47%	53%		Henry Hyde
		83%	17%		Danny K. Davis
	44%	56%		Phil Crane
			Melissa Bean
		68%	32%		Jan Schakowsky
		53%	47%		Mark Kirk
		46%	53%		Jerry Weller
		52%	48%		Jerry Costello
		45%	55%		Judy Biggert
		44%	55%		Dennis Hastert
		41%	59%		Timothy V. Johnson
		44%	55%		Donald Manzullo
		51%	48%		Lane Evans
		42%	58%		Ray LaHood
		39%	61%		John Shimkus

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Illinois. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry and Edwards:^[14]

1. Constance A. Howard
2. Carrie Austin
3. Shirley R. Madigan
4. Tony Munoz
5. James DeLeo
6. Joan Brennan
7. Vera Davis
8. Linda Pasternak
9. William Marovitz
10. Dan Pierce
11. Debbie Halvorson
12. Molly McKenzie
13. Beth Ann May
14. Mary Lou Kearns
15. Lynn Foster
16. John Nelson
17. Mary Boland
18. Shirley McCombs
19. Jerry Sinclair
20. Barbara Flynn Currie
21. John Daley

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter Turnout . www.elections.il.gov . Illinois State Board of Elections . 24 March 2020 . 30 May 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210530142655/https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/VoterTurnout.aspx . dead .
2. Web site: Election Results . www.elections.il.gov . Illinois State Board of Elections . 23 March 2020 . 22 February 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200222093629/https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx . dead .
3. Web site: Illinois Democratic Delegation 2004. www.thegreenpapers.com. 2020-03-21.
4. Web site: Illinois Republican Delegation 2004 . www.thegreenpapers.com . The Green Papers . 24 March 2020.
5. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 30 June 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . 21 November 2010 . dead.
6. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Illinois Polls. US Election Atlas.
7. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President.
8. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President.
9. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
10. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
11. Web site: Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20150717092519/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17031.html. 2015-07-17. 2008-12-13.
12. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
13. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project.
14. Web site: The Electoral College. 20 May 2019.