2016 United States presidential election in Florida explained

See main article: 2016 United States presidential election.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence, against the Democratic nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Trump carried the state with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote, which included a 1.2% winning margin over Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote. Trump consequently became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate to carry St. Lucie County since 1992, and the first to carry Jefferson and Monroe Counties since 1988; all three of these counties were last carried by George H. W. Bush.

Florida voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 1.19%.^[3] It was the fifth-closest state result, with only Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closer. According to the National Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from the Cuban-American voters in the state—in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.^[4] This is also the closest election contested by any of Trump's three Democratic opponents in his presidential bids, as the Florida electorate has decisively swung to the right in the Trump political era; relatedly, this would be the last time Trump ran for president as a resident of another state (New York) rather than of Florida.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary.

Democratic debate

March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida

Candidate	Airtime	Polls[5]
Clinton	23:29	51.0%
Sanders	17:51	39.6%

The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.^{[6] [7]} The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen."^[8] The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.^[9]

Results

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016

District	Delegates	Votes Clinton	Votes Sanders	Votes Qualified	Clinton delegates	Sanders delegates
1	3	26987	18497	45484	2	1
2	6	50190	34073	84263	4	2
3	4	32070	27974	60044	2	2
4	4	33920	22765	56685	2	2
5	6	55855	18639	74494	4	2
6	5	37995	24443	62438	3	2
7	5	37410	26795	64205	3	2
8	5	39384	24376	63760	3	2
9	5	40609	19880	60489	3	2
10	5	38011	22213	60224	3	2
11	5	38061	21590	59651	3	2
12	5	35498	23172	58670	3	2
13	6	44121	29707	73828	4	2
14	6	49146	23617	72763	4	2
15	5	32793	20712	53505	3	2
16	6	43921	25856	69777	4	2
17	4	29899	17045	46944	3	1
18	6	42804	20620	63424	4	2
19	4	31958	17235	49193	3	1
20	7	61998	15761	77759	6	1
21	7	57723	22100	79823	5	2
22	6	49602	22209	71811	4	2
23	6	44510	19974	64484	4	2
24	8	59274	13893	73167	6	2
25	3	24897	9287	34184	2	1
26	4	32069	14148	46217	3	1
27	4	30709	12258	42967	3	1
Total	140	1101414	568839	1670253	93	47
PLEO	28	1101414	568839	1670253	18	10
At Large	46	1101414	568839	1670253	30	16
Gr. Total	214	1101414	568839	1670253	141	73
Total vote		64.44%	33.28%	1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Republican primary

See main article: 2016 Florida Republican presidential primary.

Republican debate

March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida

Candidate	Airtime	Polls[10]
	28:11	38.6%
	21:42	21.8%
	21:23	18.0%
	18:49	12.0%

The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor Stephen Dinan. The Washington Times cohosted the debate.^[11] The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field.^[12] On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign."^[13] This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.^[14]

Results

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: .

Green primary

The Green Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.^[15]

On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary via instant-runoff voting.

Green Party of Florida primary – first round

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	18	52.9%
Elijah Manley	14	41.2%
William Kreml	1	2.94%
Kent Mesplay	1	2.94%
Sedinam Curry	0
Darryl Cherney	0
Total	34	100%

Green Party of Florida primary – second round

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	19	55.9%
Elijah Manley	14	41.2%
William Kreml	1	2.94%
Total	34	100

Green Party of Florida primary – third round

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	20	58.8%	15
Elijah Manley	14	41.2%	10
Total	34	100	25

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times[16]		November 6, 2016
CNN[17]		November 4, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[18]		November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]		November 7, 2016
NBC[20]		November 8, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[21]		November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[22]		November 8, 2016
Fox News[23]		November 7, 2016
ABC[24]		November 7, 2016

Polling

See also: Opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election in Florida. In early polling conducted in late 2015, Trump started with strong momentum and won almost every poll against Clinton by margins varying from 2 to 8 points. In March 2016, Trump's early momentum seemed to slow, as Clinton won every poll until June 2016, when Trump won a poll 45% to 44%. Most polling conducted throughout the summer was favorable to Clinton, but both candidates were neck and neck in late August and early September, with neither having a consistent lead. From mid September to October 20, Clinton won every poll but one. In the last weeks, polling was extremely close, with neither candidate taking the lead. The third to last and fourth to last poll ended in a tie, but Trump won the last poll 50% to 46%.^[25] The average of the last three polls showed Trump ahead 47.3% to 46.7%, where the race was essentially tied.

Results

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic		Various candidates Write-ins		Margin		Total votes cast
		%		%		%		%
	Alachua		46,834		36.00%		75,820		58.28%		7,446		5.72%		-28,986		-22.28%		130,100
	Baker		10,294		81.02%		2,112		16.62%		299		2.36%		8,182		64.40%		12,705
	Bay		62,194		70.50%		21,797		24.71%		4,231		4.79%		40,397		45.79%		88,222
	Bradford		8,913		73.31%		2,924		24.05%		321		2.64%		5,989		49.26%		12,158
	Brevard		181,848		57.16%		119,679		37.62%		16,614		5.22%		62,169		19.54%		318,141
	Broward		260,951		31.16%		553,320		66.08%		23,117		2.76%		-292,369		-34.92%		837,388
	Calhoun		4,655		75.96%		1,241		20.25%		232		3.79%		3,414		55.71%		6,128
	Charlotte		60,128		61.96%		33,445		34.41%		3,524		3.63%		26,773		27.55%		97,187
	Citrus		54,456		67.72%		22,789		28.34%		3,167		3.94%		31,667		39.38%		80,412
	Clay		74,963		69.85%		27,822		25.93%		4,532		4.22%		47,141		43.92%		107,317
	Collier		105,423		61.11%		61,085		35.41%		6,002		3.48%		44,338		25.70%		172,510
	Columbia		20,368		70.57%		7,601		26.33%		895		3.10%		12,767		44.24%		28,864
	DeSoto		6,778		62.17%		3,781		34.68%		344		3.15%		2,997		27.49%		10,903
	Dixie		5,822		80.35%		1,270		17.53%		154		2.12%		4,552		62.82%		7,246
	Duval		211,672		48.48%		205,704		47.12%		19,197		4.40%		5,968		1.36%		436,573
	Escambia		88,808		57.60%		57,461		37.27%		7,903		5.13%		31,347		20.33%		154,172
	Flagler		33,850		58.38%		22,026		37.98%		2,111		3.64%		11,824		20.40%		57,987
	Franklin		4,125		68.08%		1,744		28.78%		190		3.14%		2,381		39.30%		6,059
	Gadsden		6,728		30.29%		15,020		67.62%		466		2.09%		-8,292		-37.33%		22,214
	Gilchrist		6,740		79.56%		1,458		17.21%		274		3.23%		5,282		62.35%		8,472
	Glades		2,996		68.37%		1,271		29.01%		115		2.62%		1,725		39.36%		4,382
	Gulf		5,329		72.69%		1,720		23.46%		282		3.85%		3,609		49.23%		7,331
	Hamilton		3,443		62.70%		1,904		34.67%		144		2.63%		1,539		28.03%		5,491
	Hardee		5,242		68.57%		2,149		28.11%		254		3.32%		3,093		40.46%		7,645
	Hendry		6,195		55.40%		4,615		41.27%		372		3.33%		1,580		14.13%		11,182
	Hernando		58,970		62.30%		31,795		33.59%		3,886		4.11%		27,175		28.71%		94,651
	Highlands		29,565		64.26%		14,937		32.46%		1,509		3.28%		14,628		31.80%		46,011
	Hillsborough		266,870		44.19%		307,896		50.99%		29,124		4.82%		-41,026		-6.80%		603,890
	Holmes		7,483		87.46%		853		9.97%		220		2.57%		6,630		77.49%		8,556
	Indian River		48,620		60.20%		29,043		35.96%		3,106		3.84%		19,577		24.24%		80,769
	Jackson		14,257		67.38%		6,397		30.23%		505		2.39%		7,860		37.15%		21,159
	Jefferson		3,930		51.11%		3,541		46.05%		218		2.84%		389		5.06%		7,689
	Lafayette		2,809		82.35%		518		15.19%		84		2.46%		2,291		67.16%		3,411
	Lake		102,188		59.48%		62,838		36.58%		6,773		3.94%		39,350		22.90%		171,799
	Lee		191,551		58.12%		124,908		37.90%		13,095		3.98%		66,643		20.22%		329,554
	Leon		53,821		34.98%		92,068		59.83%		7,992		5.19%		-38,247		-24.85%		153,881
	Levy		13,775		70.64%		5,101		26.16%		623		3.20%		8,674		44.48%		19,499
	Liberty		2,543		76.78%		651		19.66%		118		3.56%		1,892		57.12%		3,312
	Madison		4,851		56.80%		3,526		41.29%		163		1.91%		1,325		15.51%		8,540
	Manatee		101,944		56.40%		71,224		39.40%		7,589		4.20%		30,720		17.00%		180,757
	Marion		107,833		61.30%		62,041		35.27%		6,026		3.43%		45,792		26.03%		175,900
	Martin		53,204		61.41%		30,185		34.84%		3,244		3.75%		23,019		26.57%		86,633
	Miami-Dade		333,999		33.83%		624,146		63.22%		29,046		2.95%		-290,147		-29.39%		987,191
	Monroe		21,904		50.97%		18,971		44.14%		2,102		4.89%		2,933		6.83%		42,977
	Nassau		34,266		72.92%		10,869		23.13%		1,857		3.95%		23,397		49.79%		46,992
	Okaloosa		71,893		70.42%		23,780		23.29%		6,423		6.29%		48,113		47.13%		102,096
	Okeechobee		9,356		67.99%		3,959		28.77%		446		3.24%		5,397		39.22%		13,761
	Orange		195,216		35.37%		329,894		59.77%		26,792		4.86%		-134,678		-24.40%		511,902
	Osceola		50,301		35.56%		85,458		60.41%		5,709		4.03%		-35,157		-24.85%		141,468
	Palm Beach		272,402		40.89%		374,673		56.24%		19,137		2.87%		-102,271		-15.35%		666,212
	Pasco		142,101		58.41%		90,142		37.06%		11,022		4.53%		51,959		21.35%		243,265
	Pinellas		239,201		48.08%		233,701		46.98%		24,583		4.94%		5,500		1.10%		497,485
	Polk		157,430		54.86%		117,433		40.92%		12,106		4.22%		39,997		13.94%		286,969
	Putnam		22,138		66.48%		10,094		30.31%		1,069		3.21%		12,044		36.17%		33,301
	St. Johns		88,684		64.34%		43,099		31.27%		6,063		4.39%		45,585		33.07%		137,846
	St. Lucie		70,289		49.50%		66,881		47.10%		4,823		3.40%		3,408		2.40%		141,993
	Santa Rosa		65,339		73.68%		18,464		20.82%		4,881		5.50%		46,875		52.86%		88,684
	Sarasota		124,438		53.79%		97,870		42.30%		9,045		3.91%		26,568		11.49%		231,353
	Seminole		109,443		48.10%		105,914		46.55%		12,169		5.35%		3,529		1.55%		227,526
	Sumter		52,730		68.27%		22,638		29.31%		1,870		2.42%		30,092		38.96%		77,238
	Suwannee		14,287		76.05%		3,964		21.10%		536		2.85%		10,323		54.95%		18,787
	Taylor		6,930		74.13%		2,152		23.02%		266		2.85%		4,778		51.11%		9,348
	Union		4,568		79.83%		1,014		17.72%		140		2.45%		3,554		62.11%		5,722
	Volusia		143,007		54.32%		109,091		41.44%		11,180		4.24%		33,916		12.88%		263,278
	Wakulla		10,512		68.07%		4,348		28.15%		584		3.78%		6,164		39.92%		15,444
	Walton		25,756		75.98%		6,876		20.28%		1,266		3.74%		18,880		55.70%		33,898
	Washington		8,637		77.04%		2,264		20.19%		310		2.77%		6,373		56.85%		11,211
Totals	4,617,886	48.60%	4,504,975	47.41%	379,886	3.99%	112,911	1.19%	9,502,747

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Jefferson (largest city: Monticello)
• Monroe (largest city: Key West)
• Pinellas (largest city: St. Petersburg)
• St. Lucie (largest city: Port St. Lucie)

By congressional district

Trump won 14 of 27 congressional districts, while Clinton won 13, including two held by Republicans.^[26]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
	68%	28%		Jeff Miller
			Matt Gaetz
	66%	31%		Gwen Graham
			Neal Dunn
		56%	40%		Ted Yoho
	62%	34%		Ander Crenshaw
			John Rutherford
	36%	61%		Corrine Brown
			Al Lawson
		57%	40%		Ron DeSantis
	44%	51%		John Mica
			Stephanie Murphy
		58%	38%		Bill Posey
	42%	55%		Alan Grayson
			Darren Soto
	35%	62%		Daniel Webster
			Val Demings
	65%	33%		Rich Nugent
			Daniel Webster
		57%	39%		Gus Bilirakis
	46%	50%		David Jolly
			Charlie Crist
		39%	57%		Kathy Castor
		53%	43%		Dennis Ross
		54%	43%		Vern Buchanan
		62%	35%		Tom Rooney
	53%	44%		Patrick Murphy
			Brian Mast
	60%	38%		Curt Clawson
			Francis Rooney
		18%	80%		Alcee Hastings
		39%	59%		Lois Frankel
		41%	57%		Ted Deutch
		36%	62%		Debbie Wasserman Schultz
		16%	81%		Frederica Wilson
		50%	48%		Mario Díaz-Balart
		41%	57%		Carlos Curbelo
		39%	59%		Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Interactive Map, 2016 Florida Primary Election Results - ap.com
• Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Florida

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter Turnout - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State. dos.myflorida.com.
2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. November 23, 2020.
3. News: Florida Election Results 2016 – The New York Times. November 10, 2016.
4. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/ Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump
5. [RealClearPolitics]
6. Web site: Miami Dade College To Host Democratic Presidential Debate. wlrn.org. November 2, 2015. 2016-01-08.
7. Web site: DNC/Florida Democratic Party Primary Debate Hosted by Univision News and The Washington Post to Take Place at the Nation's Largest and Most Diverse College, Miami Dade College, on March 9, 2016 - Univision. Univision. 2016-01-08. en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20160202034425/http://corporate.univision.com/2015/11/dncflorida-democratic-party-primary-debate-hosted-by-univision-news-and-the-washington-post-to-take-place-at-the-nations-largest-and-most-diverse-college-miami-dade-college-on-march-9-201/. February 2, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
8. News: Él impulsa el debate hispano entre los precandidatos demócratas. The Washington Post. 2015-12-18. 2016-01-08. 0190-8286. en-US. Alberto. Avendaño.
9. Web site: Univision/Washington Post Democratic debate to be held March 9. POLITICO. 2016-01-08.
10. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination.
11. News: CNN partnering with the Washington Times for March 10 debate in Miami. The Washington Post. January 20, 2016. February 13, 2016. 0190-8286. en-US. Erik. Wemple.
12. Web site: CNN announces March debate in Florida. Politico. January 18, 2016.
13. News: Republican Debate in Miami: What to Watch . CNN.com . March 10, 2016.
14. News: Peters. Jeremy. Barbaro. Michael. Marco Rubio Suspends His Presidential Campaign. The New York Times. March 15, 2016. March 15, 2016.
15. Web site: 2016 Presidential Primary. May 5, 2016. Green Party of Florida. en-US. June 1, 2016.
16. Web site: Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push. November 9, 2016. LA Times.
17. News: Road to 270: CNN's new election map. David. Chalian. November 9, 2016.
18. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
19. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President. November 9, 2016.
20. Web site: NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton. November 9, 2016.
21. Web site: ElectoralVote. November 9, 2016.
22. Web site: RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House. November 9, 2016.
23. Web site: Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge. November 7, 2016. November 9, 2016.
24. Web site: The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States. ABC News. November 8, 2016. November 9, 2016.
25. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton.
26. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. cookpolitical.com.