2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Country:Wisconsin
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Next Year:2024
Turnout:61.2%
Image1:File:Tammy Baldwin, official portrait, 113th Congress (1).jpg
Nominee1:Tammy Baldwin
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,472,914
Percentage1:55.36%
Nominee2:Leah Vukmir
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,184,885
Percentage2:44.53%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Tammy Baldwin
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Tammy Baldwin
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kevin
Nicholson
Leah
Vukmir
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[18] July 26–28, 2018238± 6.5%35%35%3%27%
Marist College[19] July 15–19, 2018355± 6.1% align=center38%28%<1%34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[20] July 12–16, 2018600± 3.0% align=center33%20% align=center47%
Marquette University[21] July 11–15, 2018266± 7.0%32% align=center34%2%30%
Marquette University[22] June 13–17, 2018274± 6.9% align=center37%32%1%30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[23] June 7–12, 2018600± 3.0% align=center28%14% align=center58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)[24] May 31 – June 4, 2018800± 3.5%29% align=center36%35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)[25] May 29–31, 2018500± 4.4% align=center32%30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[26] April 30 – May 3, 2018240± 6.0% align=center46%15%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[27] April 2–4, 20181,028± 3.1% align=center45%27%28%
Marquette University[28] February 25 – March 1, 2018243± 8.2% align=center28%19%2% align=center49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[29] January 22–23, 2018350± 5.2% align=center48%9%1%42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)January 2–3, 2018350± 5.2% align=center27%10%2% align=center60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[30] December 6–7, 20171,004± 3.1% align=center30%23%2% align=center45%

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[32] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[33] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] November 5, 2018
Fox News[35] November 5, 2018
CNN[36] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[37] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Leah
Vukmir (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co.[38] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center50%39%11%
Emerson College[39] October 29–31, 2018604± 4.1% align=center53%44%3%
Marquette University[40] October 24–28, 20181,154 LV± 3.2% align=center54%43%1%
1,400 RV± 3.0% align=center52%42%3%
Ipsos[41] October 12–18, 20181,193± 3.0% align=center54%39%3%5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[42] October 10–11, 2018816± 3.4% align=center52%42%6%
Marquette University[43] October 3–7, 2018799 LV± 3.9% align=center53%43%2%
1,000 RV± 3.6% align=center53%42%3%
Marist College[44] September 30 – October 3, 2018571 LV± 4.8% align=center54%40%1%5%
781 RV± 4.1% align=center53%40%1%6%
IpsosSeptember 14–24, 20181,109± 3.0% align=center52%39%4%5%
Marquette University[45] September 12–16, 2018614 LV± 4.4% align=center53%42%2%
800 RV± 4.0% align=center52%40%4%
Suffolk University[46] August 18–24, 2018500± 4.4% align=center50%42%8%
Marquette University[47] August 15–19, 2018601 LV± 4.5% align=center49%47%2%
800 RV± 4.0% align=center51%43%4%
Emerson College[48] July 26–28, 2018632± 4.2% align=center50%36%4%10%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018906± 3.8% align=center55%38%1%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[49] June 11 – July 2, 2018968± 4.5% align=center56%40%4%
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018800± 4.0% align=center49%40%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[50] March 15–16, 2018910± 3.3% align=center51%39%10%

with Kevin Nicholson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Kevin
Nicholson (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[51] July 26–28, 2018632± 4.2% align=center49%40%3%9%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018906± 3.8% align=center54%39%1%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJune 11 – July 2, 2018968± 4.5% align=center55%42%3%
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018800± 4.0% align=center50%39%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)March 15–16, 2018910± 3.3% align=center51%38%11%

with generic Republican

with David Clarke

with Sean Duffy

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[53] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won 3 out of the state's 8 Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over 10 percentage points.

DistrictVukmirBaldwinRepresentative
50.3%49.6%Bryan Steil
26.4%73.4%Mark Pocan
43.5%56.4%Ron Kind
21.3%78.6%Gwen Moore
56.9%43.0%Jim Sensenbrenner
52.4%47.5%Glenn Grothman
52.2%47.7%Sean Duffy
51.5%48.5%Mike Gallagher

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission. elections.wi.gov. 2018-03-29. 2018-04-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20180417232937/http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/elections. dead.
  2. Web site: Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018. April 19, 2017. October 30, 2017. November 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171104130534/http://www.washingtonblade.com/2017/04/19/trouble-for-tammy-baldwin-in-2018/. live.
  3. News: Establishment-backed Vukmir wins Wisconsin GOP Senate primary. The Hill. August 14, 2018. Max. Greenwood. April 16, 2024. July 27, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210727133444/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/401605-leah-vukmir-wins-wisconsin-gop-senate-primary. live.
  4. Web site: BARMAN, CHARLES EDWARD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. April 10, 2018. September 11, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200911134244/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8WI00240/. live.
  5. Web site: JONES, GRIFFIN GILBERT - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. April 10, 2018. September 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180911081629/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8WI00232/. live.
  6. Web site: Wisconsin 2018 General Election. The Green Papers. June 16, 2018. June 16, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180616030521/https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/WI. live.
  7. Web site: Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson launches GOP Wisconsin Senate bid against Tammy Baldwin. Glabuer. Bill. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. July 26, 2017. July 27, 2017. July 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180714161431/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/07/26/former-marine-kevin-nicholson-launches-gop-wisconsin-senate-bid/511893001/. live.
  8. News: Super PAC wants David Clarke to run against Tammy Baldwin. WFRV-TV. Horning. Joe. January 19, 2017. January 19, 2017. January 31, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170131195843/http://www.wearegreenbay.com/news/local-news/super-pac-wants-david-clarke-to-run-against-tammy-baldwin/642497704. live.
  9. Web site: "Cop Under Fire:" Sheriff Clarke says he won't run for Senate, criticizes Gov. Walker in new book. March 1, 2017.
  10. News: Wisconsin's Sean Duffy Expected to Forgo Senate Bid. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. February 15, 2017. February 15, 2017. February 16, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170216060140/http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/wisconsins-sean-duffy-expected-forgo-senate-bid. live.
  11. Web site: Buoyed by Trump's win, Wisconsin Republicans eye Baldwin challenge. The Hill. Curtis. Jake. December 18, 2016. December 19, 2016. December 21, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161221155935/http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/310899-buoyed-by-trumps-win-wisconsin-republicans-eye-baldwin-challenge. live.
  12. News: Republican Eric Hovde won't decide Senate run for months. WQOW. Associated Press. November 17, 2016. November 17, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161118044641/http://www.wqow.com/story/33737641/republican-eric-hovde-wont-decide-senate-run-for-months. November 18, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
  13. Web site: Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch Rules Out 2018 Senate Run . June 19, 2017 . usnews.com . PDF . June 20, 2017 . May 2, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180502211305/https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wisconsin/articles/2017-06-19/lt-gov-rebecca-kleefisch-rules-out-2018-senate-run . live .
  14. Web site: Another GOP Name Surfaces in WI 2018 Senate Race. RightWisconsin. Bader. Jerry. March 28, 2017. March 28, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170329141225/http://www.rightwisconsin.com/opinion/perspectives/another-gop-name-surfaces-in-wi-2018-senate-race. March 29, 2017. dead. mdy-all.
  15. Web site: Nicole Schneider won't run for Senate against Tammy Baldwin. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Jason. Stein. June 27, 2017. June 28, 2017. September 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180911124255/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/27/nicole-schneider-wont-run-senate-against-tammy-baldwin/433095001/. live.
  16. News: Charlie Sykes: 'Absolutely no truth' to suggestion he'd challenge Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate. Wisconsin State Journal. Sommerhauser. Mark. October 6, 2016. October 11, 2016. October 9, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161009110735/http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/charlie-sykes-absolutely-no-truth-to-suggestion-he-d-challenge/article_9d7109a5-f47c-5ef0-86ac-e13fba610727.html. live.
  17. Web site: Gov. Scott Walker leaning toward re-election, rules out 2018 Senate bid. The Washington Examiner. Drucker. David M.. November 16, 2016. November 17, 2016. July 29, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170729012044/http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/walker-leaning-toward-re-election-rules-out-2018-senate-bid/article/2607557. live.
  18. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
  19. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Wisconsin-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_July-26-2018_1708251128.pdf Marist College
  20. http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180719Restoration.pdf Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)
  21. https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MLSP46Toplines.pdf Marquette University
  22. Web site: Marquette University . June 20, 2018 . June 20, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180620185813/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MLSP45Toplines.pdf . live .
  23. Web site: Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) . June 18, 2018 . November 8, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181108060014/https://www.scribd.com/document/382021495/WI-Sen-Hodas-Associates-R-for-Restoration-PAC-June-2018 . live .
  24. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/campaigns/whiteboard/2018/06/pro-vukmir-pac-poll-shows-her-leading-wisconsin-gop-primary-1350035 The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20180604144540/https://leahvukmir.com/post-convention-poll-shows-leah-momentum-moves-statistical-tie/ American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)
  26. Web site: Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) . June 15, 2018 . June 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180615190619/https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/667882/pro-nicholson-poll-shows-him-ahead-primary-31-points . live .
  27. Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . April 6, 2018 . November 28, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181128080828/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/05/first-pro-leah-vukmir-tv-ad-airs-wisconsin-u-s-senate-race/491064002/ . live .
  28. Web site: Marquette University . March 5, 2018 . March 5, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180305191712/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/03/05/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-wisconsin-voters-divided-on-benefits-of-foxconn-deal-but-together-in-support-of-background-checks-for-gun-sales/ . live .
  29. Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . February 8, 2018 . February 9, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180209063537/https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/bolton-super-pac-poll-suggests-ad-praising-nicholson-boosted-his-favorability/ . live .
  30. Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . December 15, 2017 . November 8, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181108060013/https://www.scribd.com/document/367193835/WI-Sen-WPI-Intelligence-R-for-Kevin-Nicholson-Dec-2017 . live .
  31. https://www.scribd.com/document/340027313/WI-Sen-Magellan-Strategies-for-Committee-to-Defend-the-President-Feb-2017 Magellan Strategies (R)
  32. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021. February 5, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210205112138/https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/187540. live.
  33. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021. September 12, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210912235626/https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2018-senate-ratings-november-1-2018. live.
  34. Web site: Skelley . Geoffrey . Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats' Direction . centerforpolitics.org . Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball . June 21, 2018 . June 21, 2018 . June 25, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180625021459/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-two-rust-belt-ratings-move-in-the-democrats-direction/ . live .
  35. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. July 10, 2018. July 4, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704201036/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html. live.
  36. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018. June 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180614221216/https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate. live.
  37. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018. July 9, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180709194218/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html. live.
  38. Web site: Research Co. . November 5, 2018 . November 6, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181106092812/https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf . live .
  39. Web site: Emerson College . November 2, 2018 . November 2, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181102154701/https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-tight-governor-races-georgia-wisconsin-iowa-democrats-look-pick-two-house-seats-iowa . live .
  40. Web site: Marquette University . October 31, 2018 . October 31, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181031190454/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/31/mlsp50release/ . live .
  41. Web site: Ipsos . September 26, 2018 . September 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180921022556/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html . live .
  42. Web site: Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015192515/https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WisconsinResults1.pdf . live .
  43. Web site: Marquette University . October 10, 2018 . August 31, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240831125402/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/10/mlsp49release/ . live .
  44. Web site: Marist College . October 11, 2018 . October 12, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181012014627/http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810081506.pdf . live .
  45. Web site: Marquette University . September 18, 2018 . September 18, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180918182207/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/09/18/mlsp48release/ . live .
  46. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_28_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
  47. Web site: Marquette University . August 22, 2018 . August 22, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180822185334/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/08/22/mlsp47release/ . live .
  48. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
  49. Web site: SurveyMonkey/Axios . July 10, 2018 . October 10, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181010153022/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view . live .
  50. Web site: Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) . March 21, 2018 . March 22, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180322015448/http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-WI-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf . live .
  51. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
  52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  53. Web site: Glauber . Bill . Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020 . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . 14 November 2018 . December 31, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20191231214441/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/12/wisconsin-election-tammy-baldwins-big-win-road-map-2020-races/1945908002/ . live .