2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin explained
Election Name: | 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
Country: | Wisconsin |
Type: | presidential |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
Previous Year: | 2012 |
Next Election: | 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
Next Year: | 2024 |
Turnout: | 61.2% |
Image1: | File:Tammy Baldwin, official portrait, 113th Congress (1).jpg |
Nominee1: | Tammy Baldwin |
Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Popular Vote1: | 1,472,914 |
Percentage1: | 55.36% |
Nominee2: | Leah Vukmir |
Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
Popular Vote2: | 1,184,885 |
Percentage2: | 44.53% |
U.S. Senator |
Before Election: | Tammy Baldwin |
Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
After Election: | Tammy Baldwin |
After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader[3]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff[8] [9]
- Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[10]
- Scott Fitzgerald, State Senate Majority Leader
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. Representative
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative[11]
- Eric Hovde, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[11] [12]
- Rebecca Kleefisch, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin[13]
- Dale Kooyenga, state representative[11]
- Nicole Schneider, businesswoman[14] [15]
- Duey Stroebel, state senator
- Charlie Sykes, talk radio host[16]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (running for reelection)[17]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kevin Nicholson | Leah Vukmir | Other | Undecided |
---|
Emerson College[18] | July 26–28, 2018 | 238 | ± 6.5% | 35% | 35% | 3% | 27% |
Marist College[19] | July 15–19, 2018 | 355 | ± 6.1% | align=center | 38% | 28% | <1% | 34% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[20] | July 12–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 33% | 20% | – | align=center | 47% |
Marquette University[21] | July 11–15, 2018 | 266 | ± 7.0% | 32% | align=center | 34% | 2% | 30% |
Marquette University[22] | June 13–17, 2018 | 274 | ± 6.9% | align=center | 37% | 32% | 1% | 30% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[23] | June 7–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 28% | 14% | – | align=center | 58% |
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)[24] | May 31 – June 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 29% | align=center | 36% | – | 35% |
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)[25] | May 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 32% | 30% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[26] | April 30 – May 3, 2018 | 240 | ± 6.0% | align=center | 46% | 15% | – | – |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[27] | April 2–4, 2018 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Marquette University[28] | February 25 – March 1, 2018 | 243 | ± 8.2% | align=center | 28% | 19% | 2% | align=center | 49% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[29] | January 22–23, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | align=center | 48% | 9% | 1% | 42% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) | January 2–3, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | align=center | 27% | 10% | 2% | align=center | 60% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[30] | December 6–7, 2017 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 30% | 23% | 2% | align=center | 45% | |
Results
General election
Debates
Predictions
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Leah Vukmir (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|
Research Co.[38] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Emerson College[39] | October 29–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 53% | 44% | – | 3% |
Marquette University[40] | October 24–28, 2018 | 1,154 LV | ± 3.2% | align=center | 54% | 43% | – | 1% |
1,400 RV | ± 3.0% | align=center | 52% | 42% | – | 3% |
Ipsos[41] | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,193 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[42] | October 10–11, 2018 | 816 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Marquette University[43] | October 3–7, 2018 | 799 LV | ± 3.9% | align=center | 53% | 43% | – | 2% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.6% | align=center | 53% | 42% | – | 3% |
Marist College[44] | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 571 LV | ± 4.8% | align=center | 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
781 RV | ± 4.1% | align=center | 53% | 40% | 1% | 6% |
Ipsos | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,109 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
Marquette University[45] | September 12–16, 2018 | 614 LV | ± 4.4% | align=center | 53% | 42% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | align=center | 52% | 40% | – | 4% |
Suffolk University[46] | August 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
Marquette University[47] | August 15–19, 2018 | 601 LV | ± 4.5% | align=center | 49% | 47% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | align=center | 51% | 43% | – | 4% |
Emerson College[48] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | align=center | 50% | 36% | 4% | 10% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | align=center | 55% | 38% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[49] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 56% | 40% | – | 4% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 49% | 40% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[50] | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 51% | 39% | – | 10% | |
with Kevin Nicholson
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Kevin Nicholson (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|
Emerson College[51] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | align=center | 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | align=center | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 55% | 42% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 50% | 39% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 51% | 38% | – | 11% | |
with generic Republican
with David Clarke
with Sean Duffy
Results
Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[53] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won 3 out of the state's 8 Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over 10 percentage points.
See also
External links
Official campaign websites
Notes and References
- Web site: Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission. elections.wi.gov. 2018-03-29. 2018-04-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20180417232937/http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/elections. dead.
- Web site: Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018. April 19, 2017. October 30, 2017. November 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171104130534/http://www.washingtonblade.com/2017/04/19/trouble-for-tammy-baldwin-in-2018/. live.
- News: Establishment-backed Vukmir wins Wisconsin GOP Senate primary. The Hill. August 14, 2018. Max. Greenwood. April 16, 2024. July 27, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210727133444/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/401605-leah-vukmir-wins-wisconsin-gop-senate-primary. live.
- Web site: BARMAN, CHARLES EDWARD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. April 10, 2018. September 11, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200911134244/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8WI00240/. live.
- Web site: JONES, GRIFFIN GILBERT - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. April 10, 2018. September 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180911081629/https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8WI00232/. live.
- Web site: Wisconsin 2018 General Election. The Green Papers. June 16, 2018. June 16, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180616030521/https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/WI. live.
- Web site: Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson launches GOP Wisconsin Senate bid against Tammy Baldwin. Glabuer. Bill. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. July 26, 2017. July 27, 2017. July 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180714161431/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/07/26/former-marine-kevin-nicholson-launches-gop-wisconsin-senate-bid/511893001/. live.
- News: Super PAC wants David Clarke to run against Tammy Baldwin. WFRV-TV. Horning. Joe. January 19, 2017. January 19, 2017. January 31, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170131195843/http://www.wearegreenbay.com/news/local-news/super-pac-wants-david-clarke-to-run-against-tammy-baldwin/642497704. live.
- Web site: "Cop Under Fire:" Sheriff Clarke says he won't run for Senate, criticizes Gov. Walker in new book. March 1, 2017.
- News: Wisconsin's Sean Duffy Expected to Forgo Senate Bid. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. February 15, 2017. February 15, 2017. February 16, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170216060140/http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/wisconsins-sean-duffy-expected-forgo-senate-bid. live.
- Web site: Buoyed by Trump's win, Wisconsin Republicans eye Baldwin challenge. The Hill. Curtis. Jake. December 18, 2016. December 19, 2016. December 21, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161221155935/http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/310899-buoyed-by-trumps-win-wisconsin-republicans-eye-baldwin-challenge. live.
- News: Republican Eric Hovde won't decide Senate run for months. WQOW. Associated Press. November 17, 2016. November 17, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161118044641/http://www.wqow.com/story/33737641/republican-eric-hovde-wont-decide-senate-run-for-months. November 18, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
- Web site: Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch Rules Out 2018 Senate Run . June 19, 2017 . usnews.com . PDF . June 20, 2017 . May 2, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180502211305/https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wisconsin/articles/2017-06-19/lt-gov-rebecca-kleefisch-rules-out-2018-senate-run . live .
- Web site: Another GOP Name Surfaces in WI 2018 Senate Race. RightWisconsin. Bader. Jerry. March 28, 2017. March 28, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170329141225/http://www.rightwisconsin.com/opinion/perspectives/another-gop-name-surfaces-in-wi-2018-senate-race. March 29, 2017. dead. mdy-all.
- Web site: Nicole Schneider won't run for Senate against Tammy Baldwin. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Jason. Stein. June 27, 2017. June 28, 2017. September 11, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180911124255/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/27/nicole-schneider-wont-run-senate-against-tammy-baldwin/433095001/. live.
- News: Charlie Sykes: 'Absolutely no truth' to suggestion he'd challenge Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate. Wisconsin State Journal. Sommerhauser. Mark. October 6, 2016. October 11, 2016. October 9, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161009110735/http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/charlie-sykes-absolutely-no-truth-to-suggestion-he-d-challenge/article_9d7109a5-f47c-5ef0-86ac-e13fba610727.html. live.
- Web site: Gov. Scott Walker leaning toward re-election, rules out 2018 Senate bid. The Washington Examiner. Drucker. David M.. November 16, 2016. November 17, 2016. July 29, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170729012044/http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/walker-leaning-toward-re-election-rules-out-2018-senate-bid/article/2607557. live.
- https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
- http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Wisconsin-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_July-26-2018_1708251128.pdf Marist College
- http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180719Restoration.pdf Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)
- https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/MLSP46Toplines.pdf Marquette University
- Web site: Marquette University . June 20, 2018 . June 20, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180620185813/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MLSP45Toplines.pdf . live .
- Web site: Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) . June 18, 2018 . November 8, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181108060014/https://www.scribd.com/document/382021495/WI-Sen-Hodas-Associates-R-for-Restoration-PAC-June-2018 . live .
- https://subscriber.politicopro.com/campaigns/whiteboard/2018/06/pro-vukmir-pac-poll-shows-her-leading-wisconsin-gop-primary-1350035 The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)
- https://web.archive.org/web/20180604144540/https://leahvukmir.com/post-convention-poll-shows-leah-momentum-moves-statistical-tie/ American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)
- Web site: Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) . June 15, 2018 . June 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180615190619/https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/667882/pro-nicholson-poll-shows-him-ahead-primary-31-points . live .
- Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . April 6, 2018 . November 28, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181128080828/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/05/first-pro-leah-vukmir-tv-ad-airs-wisconsin-u-s-senate-race/491064002/ . live .
- Web site: Marquette University . March 5, 2018 . March 5, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180305191712/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/03/05/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-wisconsin-voters-divided-on-benefits-of-foxconn-deal-but-together-in-support-of-background-checks-for-gun-sales/ . live .
- Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . February 8, 2018 . February 9, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180209063537/https://www.wispolitics.com/2018/bolton-super-pac-poll-suggests-ad-praising-nicholson-boosted-his-favorability/ . live .
- Web site: WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) . December 15, 2017 . November 8, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181108060013/https://www.scribd.com/document/367193835/WI-Sen-WPI-Intelligence-R-for-Kevin-Nicholson-Dec-2017 . live .
- https://www.scribd.com/document/340027313/WI-Sen-Magellan-Strategies-for-Committee-to-Defend-the-President-Feb-2017 Magellan Strategies (R)
- Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021. February 5, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210205112138/https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/187540. live.
- Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021. September 12, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210912235626/https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2018-senate-ratings-november-1-2018. live.
- Web site: Skelley . Geoffrey . Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats' Direction . centerforpolitics.org . Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball . June 21, 2018 . June 21, 2018 . June 25, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180625021459/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-two-rust-belt-ratings-move-in-the-democrats-direction/ . live .
- Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. July 10, 2018. July 4, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704201036/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/midterms-2018.html. live.
- Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018. June 14, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180614221216/https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races/senate. live.
- Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018. July 9, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180709194218/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html. live.
- Web site: Research Co. . November 5, 2018 . November 6, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181106092812/https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf . live .
- Web site: Emerson College . November 2, 2018 . November 2, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181102154701/https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-tight-governor-races-georgia-wisconsin-iowa-democrats-look-pick-two-house-seats-iowa . live .
- Web site: Marquette University . October 31, 2018 . October 31, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181031190454/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/31/mlsp50release/ . live .
- Web site: Ipsos . September 26, 2018 . September 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180921022556/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html . live .
- Web site: Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015192515/https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WisconsinResults1.pdf . live .
- Web site: Marquette University . October 10, 2018 . August 31, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240831125402/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/10/10/mlsp49release/ . live .
- Web site: Marist College . October 11, 2018 . October 12, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181012014627/http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810081506.pdf . live .
- Web site: Marquette University . September 18, 2018 . September 18, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180918182207/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/09/18/mlsp48release/ . live .
- https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_28_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
- Web site: Marquette University . August 22, 2018 . August 22, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180822185334/https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2018/08/22/mlsp47release/ . live .
- https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
- Web site: SurveyMonkey/Axios . July 10, 2018 . October 10, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181010153022/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view . live .
- Web site: Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) . March 21, 2018 . March 22, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180322015448/http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-WI-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf . live .
- https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-wi-7.28.18.pdf Emerson College
- https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH6AbyU5kapsnOLZGf3ydy7MYKjbUo-A/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
- Web site: Glauber . Bill . Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020 . Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . 14 November 2018 . December 31, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20191231214441/https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/12/wisconsin-election-tammy-baldwins-big-win-road-map-2020-races/1945908002/ . live .