2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina explained

The 2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with a special election for South Carolina's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham won reelection to a third term. He faced Democratic state senator Brad Hutto and Independent Thomas Ravenel in the general election. He defeated both of them by a 15-point margin.

As of 2022, this is the last time that Barnwell County, Darlington County, and Calhoun County voted Democratic in a Senate election.

Republican primary

Of all the Republican senators up for re-election in the 2014 cycle, Graham was considered one of the most vulnerable to a primary challenge, largely due to his low approval ratings and reputation for working with and compromising with Democrats.^{[1] [2]} He expected a primary challenge from conservative activists, including the Tea Party movement,^[3] and Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, indicated that his organization would support a primary challenge if an acceptable standard-bearer emerged.^[4]

However, a serious challenger to Graham failed to emerge and he was widely viewed as likely to win,^[1] which has been ascribed to his "deft maneuvering" and "aggressive" response to the challenge. He befriended potential opponents from the state's congressional delegation and helped them with fundraising and securing their preferred committee assignments; he assembled a "daunting multimillion-dollar political operation" dubbed the "Graham machine" that built six regional offices across the state and enlisted the support of thousands of paid staffers and volunteers, including over 5,000 precinct captains; he assembled a "staggering" campaign warchest and "blanketed" the state with positive ads; he focused on constituent services and local issues; and he refused to "pander" to the Tea Party supporters, instead confronting them head-on, arguing that the Republican party needs to be more inclusive.^{[5] [6] [7]}

Candidates

Declared

• Det Bowers, pastor and businessman^[8]
• Lee Bright, state senator^[9]
• Richard Cash, businessman and candidate for South Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2010^[10]
• Bill Connor, attorney, lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Reserve and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010^[11]
• Benjamin Dunn, attorney^[12]
• Lindsey Graham, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Nancy Mace, businesswoman and author^[9]

Withdrew

• Dave Feliciano, police officer^[13]

Declined

• Bruce Carroll, co-founder of GOProud and blogger at gay conservative site GayPatriot^[14]
• Tom Davis, state senator^[15]
• Trey Gowdy, U.S. Representative^[16]
• Mark Sanford, U.S. Representative and former governor of South Carolina^{[17] [18]}
• Mick Mulvaney, U.S. Representative^[19]
• Thomas Ravenel, former South Carolina state treasurer (running as an independent)^{[20] [21]}
• Joe Wilson, U.S. Representative^[22]

Polling

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Det Bowers	Lee Bright	Richard Cash	Bill Connor	Benjamin Dunn	Nancy Mace	Undecided
align=left	Landmark/Rosetta Stone[24]	August 25, 2013	500	± 4.5%		42.4%	—	12.6%	6.7%	—	—	10%		28.3%
align=left	Harper Polling[25]	October 27–28, 2013	379	± 5.03%		51%	—	15%	4%	4%	—	4%	22%
align=left	Gravis Marketing[26]	November 30 – December 2, 2013	601	± 4%		54%	—	10%	5%	2%	—	6%	23%
align=left	North Star^[27]	January 20–26, 2014	600	± 4%		53%	—	11%	3%	3%	—	8%	23%
align=left	Wenzel Strategies [28]	February 3–4, 2014	623	± 3.9%		45.9%	—	17.4%	4.9%	4.2%	—	5.1%		22.5%
align=left	Winthrop University[29]	February 16–23, 2014	901	± 3.2%		45%	—	8.5%	2.9%	3.5%	—	3.7%		36.5%
align=left	Gravis Marketing[30]	March 6–7, 2014	735	± 4%		60%	—	10%	4%	2%	—	7%	17%
align=left	TargetPoint[31]	March 16–22, 2014	600	± 2.8%		56%	4%	6%	7%	1%	1%	5%	20%
align=left	Clemson University[32]	May 22–29, 2014	400	± 6%		49%	1%	9%	3%	1%	0%	2%		35%

• ^ Internal poll for Lindsey Graham campaign
• * Internal poll for Lee Bright campaign

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Jim DeMint	Undecided
align=left	Gravis Marketing	November 30 – December 2, 2013	601	± 4%	36%		47%	17%
align=left	Gravis Marketing	March 6–7, 2014	735	± 4%		44%	42%	14%

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Mark Sanford	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	559	± 4.1%		52%	34%	14%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 7–9, 2012	506	± 4.4%		64%	26%	10%

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	conservative	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	559	± 4.1%	37%		52%	11%
align=left	Public Policy Polling[34]	May 22–23, 2011	638	± 3.9%	32%		57%	11%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	December 7–9, 2012	506	± 4.4%		51%	40%	9%
align=left	Gravis Marketing	November 30 – December 2, 2013	601	± 4%	37%		39%	24%
align=left	Gravis Marketing	March 6–7, 2014	735	± 4%		43%	32%	25%

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Lee Bright	Undecided
align=left	Landmark/Rosetta Stone	August 25, 2013	500	± 4.5%		49.4%	23.7%	26.9%
align=left	North Star^	January 20–26, 2014	600	± 4%		57%	27%	16%

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Richard Cash	Undecided
align=left	Landmark/Rosetta Stone	August 25, 2013	500	± 4.5%		49.3%	20.5%	30.2%
align=left	North Star^	January 20–26, 2014	600	± 4%		58%	26%	16%

Poll source				Lindsey Graham	Nancy Mace	Undecided
align=left	Landmark/Rosetta Stone	August 25, 2013	500	± 4.5%		48.2%	23.2%	28.6%
align=left	North Star^	January 20–26, 2014	600	± 4%		59%	26%	15%

• ^ Internal poll for Lindsey Graham campaign

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Brad Hutto, state senator^[35]
• Jay Stamper, entrepreneur

Declined

• Jim Hodges, former governor of South Carolina^[36]

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Victor Kocher, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002^{[35] [38]}

Independent

In March 2014, with only controversial businessman and prankster Jay Stamper running for the Democrats, Dick Harpootlian, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, had stated that business leaders were working on an effort to recruit a potential independent candidate to run in case Graham was defeated in the primary.^[36] Such a "contingency" plan was rendered moot by the entry of Democratic state senator Brad Hutto into the race.^[36]

Former Republican state treasurer Thomas Ravenel had confirmed that was considering running for the Senate as an independent and was likely to do so if Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary.^[39] In April 2014, with Graham polling strongly in the primary, Ravenel announced he would run.^[40] He officially announced his candidacy on July 4.^[41]

Declared

• Thomas Ravenel, former Republican state treasurer^{[20] [21] [40]}

General election

Debates

Graham initially declined to debate his opponents. A spokesman said that his campaign was "in discussions with other groups, as well as looking at the schedule." Hutto said that Graham is "terrified at the thought of defending his own record in a public debate" and Ravenel said Graham's decision was "highly arrogant and disrespectful."^[42] Graham claimed he refused to debate because of the presence of independent candidate Thomas Ravenel, a convicted felon. He ultimately agreed to debate Hutto alone on October 27.^[43]

• Complete video of debate, October 27, 2014

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures for the pre-primary reporting period.

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements ....	Cash on hand	Debt
	(R)	$7,014,854	$9,063,768	$0	$276,312
	(D)	$399,770	$342,366	$132,401	$75,000

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[44]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[45]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[46]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Real Clear Politics[47]		November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source				Lindsey Graham (R)	Brad Hutto (D)	Thomas Ravenel (I)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Rasmussen Reports[48]	July 9–10, 2014	750	± 4%		49%	30%	—	10%	11%
align=left	Voter Survey Service[49]	July 7–13, 2014	1,000	± 4%		46%	33%	—	9%	12%
align=left rowspan=2	Voter Survey Service	July 16–20, 2014	650	± 4%		45%	33%	10%	4%[50]	8%
	46%				33%	—	9%	12%
align=left	CBS News/NYT/YouGov[51]	July 5–24, 2014	1,183	± 5.4%		48%	36%	—	7%	10%
align=left	CBS News/NYT/YouGov[52]	August 18 – September 2, 2014	833	± 5%		42%	29%	8%	2%	19%
align=left	Winthrop University[53]	September 21–28, 2014	1,082	± 3%		46.3%	28%	8%	3.5%[54]	14.3%
align=left	CBS News/NYT/YouGov[55]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	2,663	± 2%		44%	27%	8%	1%	20%
align=left	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	1,566	± 4%		43%	28%	8%	2%	19%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Barnwell (largest town: Barnwell)
• Calhoun (largest town: St. Matthews)
• Darlington (largest city: Hartsville)
• Dillon (Largest city: Dillon)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Chester (largest town: Chester)
• McCormick (largest town: McCormick)

See also

• 2014 United States Senate special election in South Carolina
• 2014 South Carolina gubernatorial election
• 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in South Carolina
• 2014 United States Senate elections
• 2014 United States elections

External links

• U.S. Senate elections in South_Carolina, 2014 at Ballotpedia
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
• South Carolina U.S. Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org

Official campaign websites

• Det Bowers for U.S. Senate
• Lee Bright for U.S. Senate
• Richard Cash for U.S. Senate
• Bill Connor for U.S. Senate
• Benjamin Dunn for U.S. Senate
• Lindsey Graham for U.S. Senate
• Brad Hutto for U.S. Senate
• Victor Kocher for U.S. Senate
• Nancy Mace for U.S. Senate
• Jay Stamper for U.S. Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Tom Kludt . Lindsey Graham Faces Big - But Weak - Field of Challengers . NBC News . April 8, 2014 . April 24, 2014 .
2. Web site: Tom Kludt . Poll: Lindsey Graham's Approval Rating Tumbles In S.C . Talkingpointsmemo.com . October 30, 2013 . February 14, 2014.
3. Web site: Rosen . James . WASHINGTON: Graham: 'I expect' a primary challenge | News . The State . February 14, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140221123003/http://www.thestate.com/2012/02/19/2159087/graham-i-expect-a-primary-challenge.html#.ULDuhYfoSIw . February 21, 2014 . dead .
4. News: Sullivan . Sean . Lindsey Graham, 2014 target? . The Washington Post . September 20, 2012 . April 24, 2014.
5. Web site: How Lindsey Graham outmaneuvered the tea party . April 23, 2014 . April 24, 2014 . Politico . Manu Raju.
6. Web site: How Lindsey Graham Stomped the Tea Party . June 10, 2014 . October 9, 2014 . The Atlantic . Molly Ball.
7. News: In South Carolina, Graham Prevails Without a Runoff . June 10, 2014 . July 17, 2014 . The New York Times . Jonathan Martin.
8. Web site: Pastor joins crowded GOP race to unseat Lindsey Graham . https://archive.today/20140205013546/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/04/pastor-joins-crowded-gop-race-to-unseat-lindsey-graham/ . dead . February 5, 2014 . February 4, 2014 . February 4, 2014 . . Hamby . Peter.
9. Web site: First Citadel female grad, Sen. Bright will take on Graham . August 1, 2013 . August 2, 2013 . The State . Andrew . Shain . https://web.archive.org/web/20130804061001/http://www.thestate.com/2013/08/01/2894539/mace-bright-expected-to-face-graham.html . August 4, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
10. News: Republican Cash to run against Graham in 2014 . April 16, 2013 . April 16, 2013 . Associated Press . . mdy-all .
11. Web site: SC Senate race: Bill Connor becomes Lindsey Graham's 4th GOP opponent . November 8, 2013 . November 10, 2013 . . Self . Jamie . https://web.archive.org/web/20131110030416/http://www.thestate.com/2013/11/08/3085217/bill-connor-becomes-lindsey-grahams.html . November 10, 2013 . dead .
12. Web site: Despite 'ambiguously gay' barb, four Graham foes unite . March 13, 2014 . March 18, 2014 . . Self . Jamie . https://web.archive.org/web/20140317105503/http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/13/3324965/despite-ambiguously-gay-barb-four.html . March 17, 2014 . dead .
13. Web site: Spartanburg police officer resigns to join U.S. Senate race . January 24, 2014 . February 26, 2014 . . Acosta . Adrian . March 7, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140307053952/http://www.foxcarolina.com/story/24544918/spartanburg-police-officer-resigns-to-join-us-senate-race . dead .
14. Web site: Bruce Carroll pulls a Judd, will not challenge Lindsey Graham . March 27, 2013 . March 28, 2013 . . Twitchy . Staff.
15. Web site: EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Tom Davis will not run for U.S. Senate, governor's office . February 1, 2013 . February 1, 2013 . . Gina . Smith . https://web.archive.org/web/20130208143929/http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/02/01/2363808/sen-tom-davis-will-not-run-for.html . February 8, 2013 . dead .
16. Web site: Trey Gowdy: No 'interest' in Graham race . July 15, 2013 . July 16, 2013 . Politico . James . Arkin.
17. Web site: Mark Sanford not ruling out run for DeMint's seat . December 6, 2012 . February 10, 2014 . Roll Call . Cameron Joseph.
18. Web site: Mark Sanford Mulls Senate Run In South Carolina: Report . December 6, 2012 . February 10, 2014 . The Huffington Post . Mollie Reilly.
19. Web site: Rep. Mulvaney won't run against Graham or his House colleagues for Senate . TheHill . December 12, 2012 . February 14, 2014.
20. Web site: Other views: Campaign cash packs new punch at the polls . July 14, 2013 . July 16, 2013 . Aiken Standard . July 21, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130721001807/http://www.aikenstandard.com/article/20130714/AIK02/130719724/1018/AIK02/other-views-campaign-cash-packs-new-punch-at-the-polls . dead .
21. Web site: Thomas Ravenel Mulling US Senate Bid . July 14, 2013 . July 10, 2013 . FITSNews.
22. Web site: Lindsey Graham may be tough to beat in 2014 - Scott Wong and David Catanese . Politico.Com . February 14, 2014.
23. https://www.c-span.org/video/?319650-1/south-carolina-republican-senate-primary-debate C-SPAN
24. Web site: Landmark/Rosetta Stone . September 17, 2017 . March 5, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160305145243/https://www.scribd.com/doc/167041028/SC-Sen-A-Landmark-Rosetta-Aug-2013 . dead .
25. https://web.archive.org/web/20131102002910/http://www.conservativeintel.com/1030-conservative-intel-poll-of-scsen-and-fits-primary-2016# Harper Polling
26. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/south-carolina-public-opinion-poll-us-senate-presidential-primary-republican/ Gravis Marketing
27. https://web.archive.org/web/20140221120627/http://www.thestate.com/2014/02/06/3249491/election-2014-lindsey-graham-would.html North Star^
28. https://www.scribd.com/doc/205478000/SC-Sen-A-Wenzel-Strategies-for-Lee-Bright-Feb-2014 Wenzel Strategies*
29. https://web.archive.org/web/20120321213048/http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804 Winthrop University
30. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/telephone-survey-latest-sc-political-poll/ Gravis Marketing
31. https://web.archive.org/web/20140606192852/http://www.thestate.com/2014/05/27/3471062/sc-politics-graham-could-avoid.html TargetPoint
32. http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/palmetto-poll-shows-voter-support-for-incumbents-in-s-c/ Clemson University
33. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0207.pdf Public Policy Polling
34. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2010/PPP_Release_SC_601.pdf Public Policy Polling
35. Web site: ELECTION 2014 (updated): Who's filed for statewide, State House, Congressional offices . https://archive.today/20140328202836/http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/28/3331775/election-2014-whos-filed-for-the.html . dead . March 28, 2014 . . Shain . Andrew . March 28, 2014 . March 28, 2014 .
36. Web site: Corey Hutchins . Independent 'contingency plan' in works if Lindsey Graham loses primary . . March 4, 2014 . March 18, 2014.
37. http://media.clemson.edu/newsroom/Palmetto-Poll-June-2014.pdf Clemson University
38. Web site: Hutto seeking U.S. Senate seat . March 29, 2014 . April 1, 2014 . Fort Mill Times.
39. News: Schuyler Kropf . Newly minted reality TV star Thomas Ravenel may challenge Lindsey Graham for U.S. Senate seat in fall . . March 4, 2014 . March 18, 2014.
40. Web site: Schuyler Kropf . Southern Charm recap: Thomas Ravenel and the U.S. Senate? . The State . April 8, 2014 . April 8, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140408223518/http://www.thestate.com/2014/04/08/3374664/southern-charm-recap-thomas-ravenel.html . April 8, 2014 . dead .
41. Web site: Callum . Lillia . GREENVILLE, SC: Ravenel makes US Senate run official | Politics . The State . July 25, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140711140847/http://www.thestate.com/2014/07/04/3547445/ravenel-announces-independent.html . July 11, 2014 . dead .
42. Web site: Graham not participating in debate with opponents . The State . October 3, 2014 . October 3, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141006092454/http://www.thestate.com/2014/10/02/3719443/graham-not-participating-in-debate.html . October 6, 2014 . dead .
43. Web site: Graham, Hutto plan first faceoff in Columbia. October 27, 2014. wyff4.com.
44. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
45. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
46. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
47. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
48. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/south_carolina/election_2014_south_carolina_senate Rasmussen Reports
49. http://www.abcnews4.com/story/26106533/poll-ravenel-not-a-factor-for-graham-in-senate-race Voter Survey Service
50. Victor Kocher (L)
51. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
52. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-south-carolina/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
53. https://web.archive.org/web/20141001212629/http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3 Winthrop University
54. Victor Kocher (L) 2.6%, Other 0.9%
55. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov