2018 United States Senate election in Arizona explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Arizona
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:64.85% [1]
Image1:File:Kyrsten Sinema (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kyrsten Sinema
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,191,100
Percentage1:49.96%
Nominee2:Martha McSally
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,135,200
Percentage2:47.61%
Map Size:210px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jeff Flake
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Kyrsten Sinema
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[5] and McSally conceded that day.[6] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained Republican, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[7]

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[8] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[9] [10] [11]

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio		Martha
McSally		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital[43] August 21–22, 2018600± 4.0%18% align=center48%22%1%8%
OH Predictive Insights[44] August 14–15, 2018578± 4.1%13% align=center47%27%–12%
OH Predictive Insights[45] July 23–25, 2018576± 4.1%15% align=center35%27%–23%
Gravis Marketing[46] June 27 – July 2, 2018501± 4.4%24% align=center36%27%–14%
Emerson College[47] June 21–22, 2018305± 5.9%18% align=center32%19%7%[48] 23%
Data Orbital[49] June 19–21, 2018550± 4.2%17% align=center38%23%2%21%
Marist College[50] June 17–21, 2018371± 6.7%21% align=center30%28%<1%21%
OH Predictive Insights[51] June 11–12, 2018600± 4.0%14% align=center39%25%–22%
Remington (R)[52] May 23–24, 20182,011± 2.3%25% align=center42%23%–10%
Magellan Strategies (R)[53] April 11–12 and 15, 2018755± 3.6%26% align=center36%25%6%7%
OH Predictive Insights[54] April 10–11, 2018302± 5.6%22%27% align=center36%–15%
Data Orbital[55] January 11–15, 2018500± 4.4%22% align=center31%19%–27%
OH Predictive Insights[56] January 9, 2018504± 4.4%29% align=center31%25%–15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[57] November 15–16, 2017500± 4.4%– align=center38%36%–26%
OH Predictive Insights[58] November 9, 2017323± 5.5%–34% align=center42%–24%
Revily (R)[59] October 28–31, 2017380± 3.0%–21% align=center32%15%[60] align=center34%

with Jay Heiler

with Jeff Flake

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake		Jeff
DeWit		Nicholas
Tutora		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
GBA Strategies[62] August 30 – September 7, 2017500± 4.4%31%–– align=center58%–11%
JMC Analytics (R)[63] August 26–27, 2017500± 4.4%21%–3% align=center47%–29%
HighGround Public Affairs[64] August 18–19, 2017273± 5.9%28%–– align=center43%5%24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward)[65] February 7, 2017921± 5.0%23%–– align=center30%– align=center47%
Remington Research Group[66] November 15–16, 20161,122± 2.9%30% align=center38%–15%–17%
33% align=center42%–––25%
35%35%–––30%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Deedra
Abboud		Kyrsten
Sinema		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital[83] June 25–27, 2018550± 4.2%7% align=center63%2%29%
Emerson College[84] June 21–22, 2018260± 6.2%8% align=center51%12%[85] 30%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[89] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[90] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] November 5, 2018
CNN[92] October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[93] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[94] November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[95] October 26, 2018
Fox News[96] October 30, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D)$19,287,249$20,249,341$1,301,542
Martha McSally (R)$16,211,836$13,688,178$2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[97]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Angela
Green (G)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[98] November 4–5, 20181,217± 2.8% align=center47%45%–2%6%
HarrisX[99] November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%44% align=center49%–––
HarrisX[100] November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%46% align=center47%–––
OH Predictive Insights[101] November 2–3, 2018631± 3.9% align=center49%48%0%–1%
Emerson College[102] November 1–3, 2018758± 3.7%48% align=center49%2%–2%
HarrisX[103] November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0% align=center48%46%–––
Research Co.[104] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%44% align=center45%–1%10%
HarrisX[105] October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0% align=center49%44%–––
Gravis Marketing[106] October 24 – November 2, 20181,165± 2.9% align=center47%46%––7%
HarrisX[107] October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0% align=center48%42%–––
The Trafalgar Group (R)[108] October 30 – November 1, 20182,166± 2.1%47% align=center50%–2%1%
HarrisX[109] October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0% align=center49%42%–––
Vox Populi Polling[110] October 27–30, 2018677± 3.7%48% align=center52%–––
HarrisX[111] October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6% align=center48%43%–––
FOX News[112] October 27–29, 2018643 LV± 3.5%46%46%–3%5%
710 RV± 3.5%44% align=center45%–4%6%
CNN/SSRS[113] October 24–29, 2018702 LV± 4.4%47% align=center51%–0%1%
867 RV± 4.0%45% align=center48%–0%3%
HighGround Public Affairs[114] October 26–28, 2018400± 4.9% align=center47%45%4%–5%
NBC News/Marist College[115] October 23–27, 2018506 LV± 5.4%44% align=center47%6%<1%3%
44% align=center50%–2%4%
793 RV± 4.4%43% align=center45%7%<1%5%
43% align=center49%–2%6%
CBS News/YouGov[116] October 23–26, 2018972± 4.1%44% align=center47%–3%5%
Ipsos[117] October 17–26, 2018799± 4.0% align=center48%46%–3%3%
OH Predictive Insights[118] October 22–23, 2018600± 4.0% align=center52%45%1%–2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[119] October 15–19, 2018606± 4.2% align=center48%46%1%–6%
Data Orbital[120] October 16–17, 2018600± 4.0%41% align=center47%3%1%8%
Change Research (D)[121] October 9–10, 2018783–44%44%––11%
CBS News/YouGov[122] October 2–5, 2018898–44% align=center47%–3%6%
OH Predictive Insights[123] October 1–2, 2018600± 4.0% align=center47%41%4%–8%
FOX News[124] September 29 – October 2, 2018716 LV± 3.5%45% align=center47%–2%6%
806 RV± 3.5%44% align=center45%–2%8%
Vox Populi Polling[125] September 29 – October 1, 2018702± 3.5% align=center52%49%–––
Suffolk University[126] September 27–30, 2018500± 4.4%42% align=center45%2%0%11%
Latino Decisions[127] September 10–25, 2018463 LV–41% align=center47%––11%
610 RV–37% align=center43%––17%
Emerson College[128] September 19–21, 2018650± 4.4%39% align=center45%–4%13%
NBC News/Marist College[129] September 16–20, 2018564 LV± 4.7%43% align=center45%6%<1%6%
45% align=center48%–<1%7%
763 RV± 4.2%41% align=center44%6%<1%8%
44% align=center47%–<1%9%
CNN/SSRS[130] September 11–15, 2018761 LV± 4.3%43% align=center50%–0%3%
854 RV± 4.1%41% align=center48%–1%6%
Ipsos[131] September 5–14, 20181,016± 4.0%44% align=center47%–4%5%
TargetSmart (D)[132] September 8–13, 2018800± 4.0%46% align=center51%–1%3%
FOX News[133] September 8–11, 2018710 LV± 3.5%44% align=center47%–2%5%
801 RV± 3.5%42% align=center46%–3%7%
Gravis Marketing[134] September 5–7, 2018882± 3.3% align=center49%48%––3%
OH Predictive Insights[135] September 5–6, 2018597± 4.0% align=center49%46%––6%
Data Orbital[136] September 4–6, 2018550± 4.2%42% align=center46%–2%[137] 9%
OH Predictive InsightsJuly 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%44% align=center48%––8%
Gravis Marketing[138] June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%39% align=center43%––19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[139] June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%44% align=center48%––7%
Emerson College[140] June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%32% align=center40%–9%20%
CBS News/YouGov[141] June 19–22, 2018869 LV–37% align=center45%–7%10%
998 RV± 3.7%34% align=center41%–8%14%
NBC News/Marist College[142] June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38% align=center49%–2%11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[143] April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%42% align=center51%––7%
OH Predictive Insights[144] April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%42% align=center48%––10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[145] March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2%41% align=center46%––13%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 9, 2017600± 4.0%45% align=center46%––9%
Revily (R)October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%29% align=center33%–– align=center37%

with Kelli Ward

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kelli
Ward (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive InsightsJuly 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%41% align=center51%–8%
Gravis Marketing[146] June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%37% align=center46%–17%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJune 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%41% align=center52%–7%
Emerson College[147] June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%26% align=center43%8%23%
YouGov[148] June 19–22, 2018867 LV± 3.7%38% align=center46%6%9%
996 RV35% align=center43%7%14%
Marist CollegeJune 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38% align=center48%2%12%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosApril 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%43% align=center51%–6%
OH Predictive InsightsApril 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%40% align=center50%–10%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 9, 2017600± 4.0%43% align=center46%–11%
Revily (R-Ward)[149] October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4% align=center34%33%–33%
HighGround Public Affairs[150] October 23–26, 2017500± 4.4%27% align=center34%– align=center39%
HighGround Public AffairsAugust 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%31% align=center32%– align=center38%

with Joe Arpaio

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive InsightsJuly 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%36% align=center54%–10%
Gravis Marketing[151] June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%33% align=center52%–14%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJune 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%34% align=center57%–9%
Emerson College[152] June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%30% align=center54%8%9%
YouGovJune 19–22, 2018868 LV± 3.7%29% align=center49%13%8%
996 RV28% align=center45%13%11%
Marist CollegeJune 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%32% align=center57%2%9%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosApril 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%32% align=center61%–7%
OH Predictive InsightsApril 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%33% align=center59%–8%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Morning Consult[153] June 29 – July 9, 20181,641± 2.0%35% align=center42%23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[154] March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2% align=center47%45%8%

with Jeff Flake

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Undecided
GBA StrategiesAugust 30 – September 7, 2017600± 4.0%40% align=center47%13%
HighGround Public AffairsAugust 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%33% align=center41%27%
Public Policy Polling[155] May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3% align=center38%36%27%

with Matt Salmon

Results

The race was too close to call on election day.[157] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[158] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[159] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[160] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[161] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[162]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[161] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[163]

County[164] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic		Martha McSally
Republican		Angela Green
Green		Write-inMarginTotal votes
data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" %
Apache16,29864.977,81031.139613.83180.078,48833.8325,087
Cochise17,38338.1626,92959.121,2122.66250.05-9,546-20.9645,549
Coconino34,24061.9419,24934.821,7573.18340.0614,99127.1255,280
Gila7,64337.2812,18059.426743.2920.01-4,537-22.1320,499
Graham3,36831.766,87064.773633.4250.05-3,502-33.0210,606
Greenlee1,04240.591,41655.161084.2110.04-374-14.572,567
La Paz1,60931.723,26564.361993.9200.00-1,656-32.645,073
Maricopa732,76150.96672,50546.7732,3712.253150.0260,2564.191,437,952
Mohave19,21426.8850,20970.252,0272.84190.03-30,995-43.3771,469
Navajo16,62445.3718,76751.221,2383.38110.03-2,143-5.8536,640
Pima221,24256.65160,55041.118,7102.23660.0260,69215.54390,568
Pinal50,39542.9363,78254.333,1832.71350.03-13,387-11.40117,395
Santa Cruz9,24168.513,82828.384183.1010.015,41340.1313,488
Yavapai40,16037.0665,30860.262,8702.65300.03-25,148-23.21108,368
Yuma19,88045.4222,53251.481,3513.0940.01-2,652-6.0643,767
data-sort-value="ZZZ" Totals1,191,10049.961,135,20047.6157,4422.415660.0255,9002.342,384,308
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Sinema won 5 of 9 congressional districts.[165]

DistrictSinemaMcSallyRepresentative
50.64%46.47%Tom O'Halleran
52.63%45.23%Ann Kirkpatrick
63.9%32.93%
32.85%64.49%Paul Gosar
42.35%55.54%Andy Biggs
47.4%50.81%David Schweikert
75.43%21.19%
42.88%54.89%Debbie Lesko
61.37%36.41%Greg Stanton

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[166] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[167] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress, and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[168] [169]

Sinema would later leave the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2022, although she would continue to caucus with them in the Senate until the end of her term.

Voter demographics

Sinema!
McSallyNo
answer		% of
voters
Gender
Men4949247
Women5147253
Age
18–24 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
25–29 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
30–39 years old5739417
40–49 years old5048217
50–64 years old4455129
65 and older5148129
Race
White4553275
BlackN/AN/AN/A2
Latino6830218
AsianN/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A3
Race and gender
White men4255334
White women4752141
Black menN/AN/AN/A1
Black womenN/AN/AN/A1
Latino men663229
Latina women702829
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less5046425
Some college education4554128
Associate Degree4353410
Bachelor's Degree5247323
Advanced degree6237114
Education and race
White college graduates5545N/A27
White no college degree3958348
Non-white college graduates722719
Non-white no college degree6533216
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5644N/A15
White women without college degrees4256226
White men with college degrees5347N/A12
White men without college degrees3561422
Non-whites6831125
Military service
Veteran3859314
Non-veteran5445186
Income
Under $30,0006234415
$30,000-$49,9996336118
$50,000-$99,9994849333
$100,000-$199,9994158124
Over $200,0004456N/A9
Party ID
Democrats973N/A32
Republicans1286238
Independents5047331
Party by gender
Democratic men946N/A14
Democratic women991N/A17
Republican men691315
Republican women1683123
Independent men5047318
Independent women5047313
Ideology
Liberals946N/A22
Moderates6335238
Conservatives1484240
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5344315
No4850285
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7720342
Immigration1683131
Economy3960118
Gun policyN/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban6039143
Suburban4454251
RuralN/AN/AN/A6
Source: CNN[170]

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2018 1203 Signed Official Statewide Canvass.pdf. December 6, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181207054635/https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/2018%201203%20Signed%20Official%20Statewide%20Canvass.pdf. December 7, 2018. live.
  2. Web site: McSally Has Early Lead Over Sinema in US Senate Race; Kirkpatrick Ahead of Marquez Peterson in CD2. Tucson Weekly. November 6, 2018.
  3. Web site: Martha McSally, Kyrsten Sinema win Arizona's Senate primary races. Yvonne Wingett. Sanchez. The Arizona Republic. August 28, 2018.
  4. Web site: John McCain, an American Original, Dies at Age 81. August 26, 2018. Time. Elliott . Philip.
  5. https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/667214148/democrat-kyrsten-sinema-wins-arizona-senate-seat Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Seat
  6. News: Republican Martha McSally concedes Arizona Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema . Chamberlain . Samuel . November 12, 2018 . Fox News . November 13, 2018 . en-US.
  7. Web site: 2016 Presidential Election Headquarters | Politics | Fox News . . July 29, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730055657/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-election-headquarters . July 30, 2017 . dead .
  8. News: Feldscher . Kyle . October 24, 2017 . Jeff Flake rips Trump while announcing his retirement in remarkable speech on Senate floor . . Washington, D.C. . October 24, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20171025002431/http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jeff-flake-rips-trump-while-announcing-his-retirement-in-remarkable-speech-on-senate-floor-watch-the-full-speech/article/2638474 . October 25, 2017 . live .
  9. Web site: Flake likely to face challenges from all sides, vows to be ready. Arizona Daily Star. March 11, 2017. March 12, 2017. Kimbel-Sannit. Arren. https://web.archive.org/web/20170313081233/http://tucson.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/flake-likely-to-face-challenges-from-all-sides-vows-to/article_71b648f5-49aa-5968-b5d2-9b80fc56d3e6.html. March 13, 2017. live.
  10. News: Hey, Democrats, Maybe You Should Run Someone Against Jeff Flake. July 12, 2017. FiveThirtyEight. July 20, 2017. en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20170721095107/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hey-democrats-maybe-you-should-run-someone-against-jeff-flake/. July 21, 2017. live.
  11. News: Trump's Big 2018 Gamble. July 17, 2017. Bloomberg.com. July 20, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170718002205/https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-17/jeff-flake-becomes-trump-s-big-2018-gamble. July 18, 2017. live.
  12. Web site: Joe Arpaio may challenge Jeff Flake for Arizona Senate seat: Exclusive. Nelson. Steven. August 28, 2017. The Washington Examiner. August 28, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170828205818/http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/joe-arpaio-may-challenge-jeff-flake-for-arizona-senate-seat/article/2632732. August 28, 2017. live.
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  17. News: Kelli Ward aims to oust Flake in 2018. Politico. Min Kim. Seung. October 27, 2016. October 27, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161028083706/http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/kelli-ward-jeff-flake-2018-230394. October 28, 2016. live.
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  19. News: Ward Eyes Sen. Flake's lack of "War Hero Status" with 2018 Senate launch. Outset. De Ford. Josh. October 30, 2016. November 4, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161105094717/http://outsetmagazine.com/2016/10/30/ward-eyes-sen-flakes-lack-war-hero-status-2018-senate-launch/. November 5, 2016. live.
  20. News: Former "Revenge Porn Website" Mastermind Declares Run For Arizona Senate. Roth. R.. September 25, 2017. Arizona Daily Independent. October 3, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171003230728/https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2017/09/25/revenge-porn-website-mastermind-declares-run-arizona-senate/. October 3, 2017. live.
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  24. News: By Donald Trump standards, Sen. Jeff Flake gets off easy at Phoenix rally. Nowicki. Dan. August 23, 2017. The Arizona Republic. August 24, 2017.
  25. News: Arizona's Jeff Flake announces he will not seek re-election to U.S. Senate. The Arizona Republic. Nowicki. Dan. October 24, 2017. October 24, 2017.
  26. News: Flake announces retirement as he rebukes Trump. Politico. Isenstadt. Alex. October 24, 2017. October 24, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171024201128/http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/24/flake-retiring-after-2018-244114. October 24, 2017. live.
  27. News: Flake retirement could help GOP save the Senate. Robillard. Kevin. October 25, 2017. Politico. October 25, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171025121859/http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/25/flake-retirement-senate-republicans-2018-244132. October 25, 2017. live.
  28. News: White House squeezes Jeff Flake. Politico. Isenstadt. Alex. July 17, 2017. July 17, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170717121026/http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/white-house-squeezes-jeff-flake-240613. July 17, 2017. live.
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  30. Web site: President Trump to nominate Arizona State Treasurer @JeffDeWitAZ to be @NASA's chief financial officer. DeWit had been mentioned for months as a possible #AZSEN candidate.pic.twitter.com/HjWWIR92m2. Nowicki. Dan. November 29, 2017. @dannowicki. en. November 30, 2017.
  31. News: Arizona Rep. Franks isn't interested in running for Flake's Senate seat. KTAR News. August 31, 2017. October 24, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171025132212/http://ktar.com/story/1712837/arizona-rep-franks-isnt-interested-in-running-for-flakes-senate-seat/. October 25, 2017. live.
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  33. News: Gosar eyes primary challenge to Flake. Arizona Capitol Times. Duda. Jeremy. January 30, 2017. January 31, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170131010323/http://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2017/01/30/gosar-eyes-primary-challenge-to-flake/. January 31, 2017. live.
  34. News: Morning Digest: Christie's 17 percent approval could cause some traffic problems for Jersey GOP. Daily Kos Elections. February 1, 2017. February 1, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170201161329/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/2/1/1628199/-Morning-Digest-Christie-s-17-percent-approval-could-cause-some-traffic-problems-for-Jersey-GOP. February 1, 2017. live.
  35. News: How Jeff Flake's retirement could help Republicans keep his Senate seat. CNN. Bradner. Eric. October 25, 2017. October 25, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171025114441/http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politics/jeff-flake-retires-arizona-senate-race-2018-midterms/index.html. October 25, 2017. live.
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  38. News: 'Cascading effect': Sen. Jeff Flake's announcement jolts political world, Senate race. The Arizona Republic. Nowicki. Dan. Wingett Sanchez. Yvonne. October 24, 2017. October 25, 2017.
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  80. News: Kirkpatrick joins the list of Democrats running for McSally's congressional seat. The Arizona Republic. Hansen. Ronald J.. July 20, 2017. July 20, 2017.
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  158. Web site: Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race. November 7, 2018. KGUN 9 Tucson News.
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  160. News: Zarrell . Matt . Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race . November 12, 2018 . ABC News. November 12, 2018.
  161. Web site: Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle'. Rachel. Leingang. The Arizona Republic.
  162. Web site: It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results. December 3, 2018. KTAR.com.
  163. Web site: Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona. November 13, 2018. Roll Call.
  164. Web site: 2018 Election Information . 2018 Election Information Arizona Secretary of State . Arizona Department of State . 16 May 2020.
  165. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.
  166. News: Martin . Jonathan . Hakim . Danny . Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will Replace McCain in Arizona . The New York Times . September 4, 2018 . 19 December 2018.
  167. News: Kyrsten Sinema, Martha McSally sworn in as US senators . 12news.com . January 3, 2019.
  168. Web site: Lawsuit Accuses Arizona Governor of Violating Constitution Over Appointment to John McCain's Senate Seat. Fortune.
  169. Web site: Kelly defeats McSally in Arizona Senate race. Marianne. LeVine. November 4, 2020. POLITICO.
  170. News: Arizona Senate Election exit poll . March 29, 2019 . . en.

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