2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas explained

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas occurred on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.

As the result of redistricting following the 2010 United States census, the boundaries of the state's congressional districts were redrawn, heavily favoring Republicans. Governor Mike Beebe, who signed the new map into law in April 2011, described it as the "status quo"^[1] and not partisan.^[2] In the new map, five counties are split between districts, the first time in Arkansas history that counties have not been kept intact in congressional districts.^[1]

Overview

Statewide

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arkansas.

United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012[3]
Party	Votes	Percentage	Seats	+/–
	Republican	637,591	61.4%	4	+1
	Democratic	304,770	29.4%	0	align="right"	-1
	Green	57,706	5.6%	0	align="right"	-
	Libertarian	37,987	3.7%	0	align="right"	-
Totals		1,038,054	100%	4	—

By district

Results of the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:

scope=col rowspan=3	District	scope=col colspan=2	Republican	scope=col colspan=2	Democratic	scope=col colspan=2	Green	scope=col colspan=2	Libertarian	scope=col colspan=2	Total	scope=col rowspan=3	Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2
scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	%
	138,800	56.23%	96,601	39.13%	6,427	2.60%	5,015	2.03%	246,843	100.0%	Republican Hold
	158,175	55.19%	113,156	39.48%	8,566	2.99%	6,701	2.34%	286,598	100.0%	Republican Hold
	186,467	75.90%	0	0.00%	39,318	16.01%	19,875	8.09%	245,660	100.0%	Republican Hold
District 4	154,149	59.53%	95,013	36.69%	4,807	1.86%	4,984	1.93%	258,953	100.0%	Republican Gain
Total	637,591	61.42%	304,770	29.36%	57,706	5.56%	37,987	3.66%	1,038,054	100.0%

District 1

See also: Arkansas's 1st congressional district. The 1st district had lost population,^[4] and so was drawn in the new map to incorporate counties in southeastern Arkansas which were previously a part of the 4th district.^[1] Republican incumbent Rick Crawford was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Rick Crawford, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Scott Ellington, prosecuting attorney^[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Clark Hall, state representative^[6]
• Gary Latanich, professor of economics at Arkansas State University^[7]

Declined

• Paul Bookout, president pro tempore of the Arkansas Senate;^[8]
• L. J. Bryant, business owner and nominee for Land Commissioner in 2010^[9]
• Chad Causey, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Marion Berry and nominee for this seat in 2010^[10]
• David Cook, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2010^[9]
• Keith Ingram, state representative^[11]
• Robert S. Moore Jr., Speaker of the state house of representatives;^{[9] [11]}
• Steve Rockwell, businessman (who had considered running in 2010)^{[9] [5]}
• Robert F. Thompson, state senator^[8]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Scott Ellington	Clark Hall	Gary Latanich	Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College[12]	April 24–25, 2012	497	± 4.4%	align=center	15%	10%	4%	align=center	71%

Primary results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jacob Holloway, graduate student at Arkansas State University.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jessica Paxton, wife of Libertarian Party of Arkansas chairman Rodger Paxton

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[14]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg[15]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Roll Call[16]		November 4, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[17]		November 5, 2012
align=left	NY Times[18]		November 4, 2012
RCP[19]		November 4, 2012
align=left	The Hill[20]		November 4, 2012

Results

District 2

See also: Arkansas's 2nd congressional district. Population growth in Arkansas's central counties meant that the 2nd district had to shrink in the new map.^[4] Under the new map, the 2nd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.^[1]

Republican incumbent Timothy Griffin was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tim Griffin, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Herb Rule, attorney and former state representative

Declined

• David Boling, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Vic Snyder and candidate for this seat in 2010^[21]
• Bob Edwards, attorney (who had considered running in 2010)^[9]
• John Charles Edwards, state representative ^[22]
• Drew Pritt, political consultant^[23]
• Bill Halter, former Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas and candidate for Senate in 2010^{[9] [11]}
• Pat Hays, Mayor of North Little Rock;^{[9] [24]}
• David Johnson, state senator^[9]
• Jay Martin, lawyer and former state representative^[25]
• Tracy Steele, state representative ^[9]
• Robbie Wills, former speaker of the state House of Representatives and candidate for this seat in 2010^[9]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Chris Hayes

General election

Results

District 3

See also: Arkansas's 3rd congressional district. Population growth in Arkansas's northwestern counties meant that the 3rd district had to shrink in the new map.^[4] Under the new map, the 3rd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.^[4]

Republican incumbent Steve Womack was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Womack, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Ken Aden, former director for West Memphis-based nonprofit Residents 4 Arkansas^[26]

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Rebekah Kennedy, nominee for Senate in 2008 and for state attorney general in 2010.^[27]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Pangrac, Libertarian Party of Arkansas Vice Chairman

General election

Campaign

Aden would withdraw from the race after admitting to exaggerating his military record. Under Arkansas law, the Democratic Party was unable to field a replacement candidate for Aden and no Democrat appeared on the general election ballot.^[28] On August 14, 2012, Kennedy received the endorsement of the Arkansas state AFL-CIO labor union.

Results

District 4

See also: Arkansas's 4th congressional district. Under the new map, the 4th district loses some territory in the east of the state to the 1st district and gains some Republican-leaning northwestern Arkansas counties from the 3rd district.^{[1] [9]} The district also gains Yell County from the 2nd district, which is expected to make the 4th district more favorable to Democrats.^[9]

Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, who was first elected in 2000, chose not to seek re-election.^[29]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Gene Jeffress, state senator^[30]

Eliminated in primary

• D.C. Morrison, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2010
• Q. Byrum Hurst Jr., attorney and small business owner^[31]

Declined

• Robin Carroll, prosecutor and former legal counsel to the Democratic Party;^[32]
• Conner Eldridge, U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas^{[29] [32] [33]}
• Steve Faris, former state senator^[32]
• Greg Hale, consultant for The Markham Group;^[34]
• Steve Harrelson, state senator ^[32]
• Mike Hathorn, former state representative and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010^[33]
• Carlton Jones, prosecutor from Texarkana^[29]
• Chris Masingill, head of the Delta Regional Authority and a former staff member for Ross and Governor Mike Beebe^[32]
• Bruce Maloch, state representative^[32]
• Gregg Reep, state representative^[32]
• Mike Ross, incumbent U.S. Representative
• Larry Teague, state senator^{[29] [32] [33]}
• Chris Thomason, former state representative and chancellor of the University of Arkansas Community College at Hope^[21]
• Jeff Weaver, district director for Mike Ross^[35]
• Hank Wilkins, state representative^[32]

Primary runoff results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tom Cotton, consultant and Army reservist^[29]

Eliminated in primary

• John Cowart, police officer and currently serving U.S. Marine Corps Reserve lieutenant colonel in Afghanistan^[37]
• Beth Anne Rankin, teacher, former Miss Arkansas & nominee for this seat in 2010^[30]

Withdrew

• Marcus Richmond, business owner and retired Marine Corps lieutenant colonel^[30]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Cotton	John Cowart	Beth Anne Rankin	Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College[38]	May 10, 2012	437	± 4.7%	align=center	51%	6%	33%	10%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[39]	April 17, 2012	542	± 4.2%	38.5%	4%	38.5%	19%

Primary results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• J. Joshua Drake

Libertarian primary

Bobby Tullis had considered seeking Libertarian nomination for the seat;^[40] however in December 2011 Tullis gave his support to Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin;^[35] nevertheless, he was subsequently nominated as the Libertarian candidate.

Candidates

Nominee

• Bobby Tullis, former Democratic state representative and unsuccessful Green Party nominee for state treasurer in 2010

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[41]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg		November 2, 2012
align=left	Roll Call		November 4, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 5, 2012
align=left	NY Times		November 4, 2012
RCP		November 4, 2012
align=left	The Hill		November 4, 2012

Results

External links

• Elections Division from the Arkansas Secretary of State
• United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012 at Ballotpedia
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
• Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation

Notes and References

1. Web site: Beebe signs Ark. redistricting plan into law. April 14, 2011. April 23, 2011. San Antonio Express-News. Andrew. DeMillo. https://web.archive.org/web/20110427062947/http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Beebe-signs-Ark-redistricting-plan-into-law-1336895.php. April 27, 2011. dead.
2. Web site: Beebe Says Redistricting Map Isn't Partisan. April 14, 2011. April 23, 2011. KUAR. Kelly. MacNeil. https://web.archive.org/web/20110928110942/http://www.kuar.org/kuarnews/19379-beebe-says-redistricting-map-isn-t-partisan.html. September 28, 2011. dead.
3. News: New York Times Election Results 2012 . The New York Times.
4. Web site: Steve Barnes: Congressional redistricting brings state something new. April 15, 2011. April 23, 2011. The Baxter Bulletin. Steve. Barnes.
5. Web site: Possible 1st District candidates. July 6, 2011. July 6, 2011. Arkansas Times. https://web.archive.org/web/20110712141543/http://www.arktimes.com/arkansas/possible-1st-district-candidates/Content?oid=1852353. July 12, 2011. live.
6. Web site: Rep. Clark Hall to enter first district congressional race. October 17, 2011. October 18, 2011. Talk Business & Politics. https://web.archive.org/web/20111019093854/http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/REP-CLARK-HALL-TO-ENTER-FIRST-DISTRICT-CONGRESSIONAL-RACE/2640/. October 19, 2011. live.
7. Web site: First District Democrats Have Contested Primary. November 2, 2011. November 2, 2011. Talk Business & Politics. Michael. Cook. https://web.archive.org/web/20120502161347/http://talkbusiness.net/2011/11/first-district-democrats-have-contested-primary/. May 2, 2012. live.
8. Web site: 3 Democrats not running in Arkansas' 1st District. September 7, 2011. September 8, 2011. Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Nomaan. Merchant.
9. Web site: Arkansas Election Line: New Congressional options. April 22, 2011. April 23, 2011. The City Wire. Roby. Brock. https://web.archive.org/web/20110426084737/http://www.thecitywire.com/index.php?q=node%2F15550. April 26, 2011. dead.
10. Web site: Chad Causey won't run again in 2012. September 7, 2011. September 7, 2011. Arkansas Times. Max. Brantley.
11. Web site: Race Ratings: Can Democrats Reclaim Arkansas Territory?. June 2, 2011. June 3, 2011. Roll Call. Joshua. Miller.
12. http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/first-district-democrats-far-from-decided-on-nominee-crawford/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
13. https://web.archive.org/web/20121005212947/http://scottellington.com/assets/files/SummaryAR01-GE-Poll-July-2012.pdf Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)
14. Web site: The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races . Cookpolitical.com . November 5, 2012 . November 6, 2012.
15. Web site: House Ratings . Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . November 2, 2012 . November 4, 2012.
16. http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html
17. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball
18. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings
19. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
20. Web site: House Ratings . The Hill . November 4, 2012. November 3, 2012 .
21. Web site: Chris Thomason, David Boling Not Seeking U.S. House Seats. July 27, 2011. July 29, 2011. Arkansas Business.
22. Web site: Edwards is staying in the state house - will not run for Congress. October 16, 2011. October 18, 2011. Tolbert Report.
23. Web site: Drew Pritt drops out of Arkansas Congressional Race. November 1, 2011. November 2, 2011. Today's THV. Lauren. Clark.
24. Web site: Pat Hays political future a source of speculation. August 23, 2011. August 23, 2011. Talk Business & Politics.
25. Web site: Jay Martin confirms interest in 2nd District Congress. January 17, 2012. January 28, 2012. Arkansas Times. Max. Brantley.
26. Web site: Democrat announces for NW Arkansas congressional seat. August 30, 2011. August 30, 2011. Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Andrew. Demillo.
27. Web site: Rebekah Kennedy. May 15, 2012. August 15, 2012. Arkansas Secretary of State.
28. Web site: Ken Aden dropping out of 3rd District congressional race. July 9, 2012. August 15, 2012. Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Max. Brantley.
29. Web site: In Ross's wake. Arkansas Times. July 27, 2011. July 27, 2011.
30. Web site: Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.. August 29, 2011. August 30, 2011. RealClearPolitics. Andrew. Demillo.
31. Web site: Democrat Q. Byrum Hurst Enters Fourth District Congressional Race. February 27, 2012. March 1, 2012. Talk Business & Politics. Roby. Brock.
32. Web site: Ross will not seek re-election in 2012 (updated). July 25, 2011. July 31, 2011. Talk Business & Politics. https://web.archive.org/web/20110830121638/http://talkbusiness.net/article/ROSS-WILL-NOT-SEEK-RE-ELECTION-IN-2012/2167/. August 30, 2011. dead.
33. Web site: Can Dems hold the Ross seat?. Politico. July 25, 2011. July 27, 2011. David. Catanese.
34. Web site: Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race. January 18, 2012. January 24, 2012. Talk Business & Politics. Roby. Brock.
35. Web site: Ross District Director Rules Out Fourth District Run. December 12, 2011. January 24, 2012. Talk Business & Politics. Roby. Brock.
36. http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-democrats-run-off-likely-as-large-undecided-vote-still-looms/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
37. Web site: Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress. December 12, 2011. January 24, 2012. Arkansas Times. Max. Brantley.
38. http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-gop-cotton-opens-lead-on-rankin/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
39. http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/fourth-district-gop-primary-a-dead-heat/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
40. Web site: Fourth District Gains More Candidates - Cowart and Tullis. November 1, 2011. November 2, 2011. Talk Business & Politics. Jason. Tolbert.
41. Web site: The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races . Cookpolitical.com . November 5, 2012 . November 6, 2012.