SpaceX Mars colonization program explained

SpaceX Mars colonization program (colloquially also referred to as Occupy Mars) is a planned objective of the company SpaceX and particularly of its founder Elon Musk to colonize Mars. The main element of this ambition is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement and colony on Mars, claiming self-determination under direct democracy. The main motivation behind this is the belief that the colonization of Mars allows humanity to become multiplanetary and therefore secures the long-term survival of the human species in case of Earth being rid of human life.[1]

Colonization is to be achieved via the development and use of reusable and mass-produced super heavy-lift launch vehicles called Starship. Starship has been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for extraplanetary colonization.[2]

These plans for colonization have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality.

History

Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in space advocacy relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the Mars Society.[3]

As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[4]

Subsequently, SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species,[5] proposing since the 2000s and early 2010s different concepts for reaching Mars, including space tugs.

Red Dragon

Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 concept mission which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy, and land solely via the use of its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters,[6] as parachutes would have required significant vehicle modifications.

In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022,[7] [8] [9] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.

In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles[10] in 2018,[11] [12] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding.[13] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft.[14]

Starship

The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.

The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time.

On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, aligning with the next Earth-Mars transfer window. Elon Musk shared on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing the reliability of landing Starships intact on Mars. SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during that transfer window.[15] If successful, the company plans to begin crewed flights to Mars in about four years.[16]

Composition

Goals

As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[4]

SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species by becoming multiplanetary.

Launch system

SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called Starbase and more recently a factory called Starfactory on the previously populated and wildlife area Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico,[17] partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective,[18] to launch and build an in development fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle with the name Starship. Aiming with its reusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights,[19] this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities.[20]

Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.[21] Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day.[22]

The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft,[23] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines.[24] Both stages are made from stainless steel.[25]

Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons,[26] and can be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction.[27] The engine family uses a new alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain of pressure, the highest of all current engines. In the future, it may be mass-produced and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per kilonewton.[28]

First missions

Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing,[29] including in 2022, that a crewed mission to Mars could take place no earlier than 2029.[30]

SpaceX's early missions to Mars are to involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships.[31]

SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony.[32] [33]

Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[34] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth.[35] [36] As of September 2024, SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026.

Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,[37] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant.[38]

Populating

The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin.

After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly.

A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.[39] [40] [41]

For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.[42]

Musk has stated in 2024 that in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years".[43] Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats.[44]

The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months.[45] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041).[46]

Reception and feasibility

Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s.

Support

Some experts, like Robert Zubrin, support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources like carbon dioxide and nitrogen.[47] According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers, material science, making mining profitable as well and space-based economy and colonization practical.

Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth.[48]

Criticism

SpaceX's plan and colonization of Mars in general, has been criticized ethically and technically.

It has been argued that settling Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that may also become problems on Mars,[49] with the reasoning that plans about Mars are always about the plans we have for Earth.[50] Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, SpaceX's competitor in commercial spaceflight, has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead to preserve Earth through space development and moving all heavy industrial activity to space.[51] SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the idea of colonialism.[52] It has been pointed out that the impact of human settlement on Mars, with regards to planetary protection, a crucial issue in space exploration, has not been comprehensively answered.[49]

It has been argued that there are physical and social consequences that need to be addressed with regards to long-term survival on the surface of Mars.[50] Former U.S. President Barack Obama has characterized Mars as more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a nuclear war",[53] with others pointing out that Earth and underground shelters on Earth could still provide better conditions and protection for more people from apocalyptic scenarios.[49] Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom.[54] Musk has stated that staying on Mars is a life threatening endeavor that needs to be glorious to be worth it.[55] Exploration of Mars has also been argued to be better left to the already successful robotic missions, with crewed missions simply being too expensive, dangerous and boring.[49]

Regarding the execution of SpaceX's Mars program, the plans have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties in its financing and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization.[56] George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".[57]

Law

SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on self-determination,[58] and direct democracy (instead of representative democracy).[59] Some of this has been introduced through the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's Starlink platform, stating the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".[60]

In contrast to such claims, international space law, proclaiming space being "province of all mankind", holds that Mars is not free to be claimed, its legal status sharing some elements of the legal status of international waters.[61] Furthermore, the realization of direct-democracy by technocratic colonizers[59] and the legal accommodation of a diverse population is thought to be challenging.[62]

Trivia

It has been pointed out that, coincidentally, rocket engineer Wernher von Braun envisioned colonies on Mars lead by a publicly elected leader titled the "Elon" in his book, . [63]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Sheetz . Michael . 2021-04-23 . Elon Musk wants SpaceX to reach Mars so humanity is not a 'single-planet species' . 2024-01-12 . CNBC . en . October 2, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211002130927/https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/elon-musk-aiming-for-mars-so-humanity-is-not-a-single-planet-species.html . live .
  2. Web site: Sheetz . Michael . November 5, 2019 . Elon Musk: SpaceX is chasing the 'holy grail' of completely reusing a rocket . July 23, 2024 . CNBC.
  3. Book: Zubrin, Robert . Robert Zubrin . The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility . 14 May 2019 . . 978-1-63388-534-9 . Amherst, New York . 1053572666.
  4. News: Hoffman . Carl . 2007-05-22 . Elon Musk Is Betting His Fortune on a Mission Beyond Earth's Orbit . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20121114052527/http://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/15-06/ff_space_musk?currentPage=all . November 14, 2012 . 2014-03-14 . Wired Magazine.
  5. Web site: Chang . Kenneth . 27 September 2016 . Elon Musk's Plan: Get Humans to Mars, and Beyond . limited . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20160929095051/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-mars-exploration.html . 29 September 2016 . 27 September 2016 . The New York Times.
  6. News: David . Leonard . 7 March 2014 . Project 'Red Dragon': Mars Sample-Return Mission Could Launch in 2022 with SpaceX Capsule . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210302085401/https://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-dragon.html . 2 March 2021 . 8 March 2014 . Space.com.
  7. http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/06/spacex-dragon-lander-could-land-on-mars.html Spacex Dragon lander could land on Mars with a mission under the NASA Discovery Program cost cap.
  8. News: Wall . Mike . July 31, 2011 . 'Red Dragon' Mission Mulled as Cheap Search for Mars Life . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20111201051520/http://www.space.com/12489-nasa-mars-life-private-spaceship-red-dragon.html . 1 December 2011 . 1 May 2012 . SPACE.com.
  9. Web site: 1 November 2011 . NASA ADVISORY COUNCIL (NAC) - Science Committee Report . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130120203325/http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2012/01/23/NAC_Science_Meeting_ReportOctober_31-November_1_2011-finalTAGGED.pdf . 20 January 2013 . 1 May 2012 . Ames Research Center, NASA.
  10. News: Agamoni Ghosh . 11 May 2017 . Nasa says SpaceX may send two Red Dragon spacecraft to Mars in 2020 in case one fails . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20170518160945/http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nasa-says-spacex-may-send-two-red-dragon-spacecraft-mars-2020-case-one-fails-1621053 . 18 May 2017 . 25 May 2017 . International Business Times.
  11. News: Davenport . Christian . 2016-06-13 . Elon Musk provides new details on his 'mind blowing' mission to Mars . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20160610202809/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/ . 2016-06-10 . 2016-06-14 . Washington Post.
  12. News: Drake . Nadia . Nadia Drake . April 27, 2016 . SpaceX Plans to Send Spacecraft to Mars in 2018 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20180919211253/https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160427-spacex-mars-red-dragon-china-mission/ . 2018-09-19 . 2016-04-28 . National Geographic News.
  13. Web site: Newmann . Dava . Exploring Together . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20160501034413/http://blogs.nasa.gov/newman/2016/04/27/exploring-together/ . 1 May 2016 . 27 April 2016 . NASA Official Blog. April 27, 2016 .
  14. Web site: Ralph . Eric . 2017-07-19 . SpaceX skipping Red Dragon for "vastly bigger ships" on Mars, Musk confirms . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210526153614/https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-skipping-red-dragon-vastly-bigger-ships-mars-confirms-musk/ . 2021-05-26 . 2020-04-15 . TESLARATI . en-US.
  15. Web site: SpaceX plans to send five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, Musk says . . 22 September 2024 . 23 September 2024.
  16. News: Musk says SpaceX to launch first uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years . 7 September 2024 . Reuters . 8 September 2024.
  17. Web site: Reilly . Patrick . Residents of Elon Musk's 'space city' say he destroyed quiet beach town . New York Post . 2023-02-19 . 2024-07-15.
  18. Korpershoek . Karlijn . Accessibility to Space Infrastructures and Outer Space: Anthropological Insights from Europe's Spaceport . International Journal of the Commons . 17 . 1 . December 26, 2023 . 1875-0281 . 10.5334/ijc.1284 . free . 481–491.
  19. Inman . Jennifer Ann . Horvath . Thomas J. . Scott . Carey Fulton . 24 August 2021 . SCIFLI Starship Reentry Observation (SSRO) ACO (SpaceX Starship) . Game Changing Development Annual Program Review 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211011134426/https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20210020835 . 11 October 2021 . 12 October 2021 . live . NASA.
  20. Mann . Adam . 20 May 2020 . SpaceX now dominates rocket flight, bringing big benefits—and risks—to NASA . live . . en . 10.1126/science.abc9093 . 219490398 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211107024440/https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa . 7 November 2021 . 28 November 2021 .
  21. Web site: Duffy . Kate . Elon Musk says he's 'highly confident' that SpaceX's Starship rocket launches will cost less than $10 million within 2-3 years . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240119200111/https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2 . January 19, 2024 . 2024-01-12 . Business Insider . en-US.
  22. Web site: Garofalo . Meredith . June 8, 2024 . SpaceX wants to build 1 Starship megarocket a day with new Starfactory . June 10, 2024 . Space.com . en.
  23. Web site: Amos . Jonathan . 6 August 2021 . Biggest ever rocket is assembled briefly in Texas . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210811063944/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58120874 . 11 August 2021 . 30 May 2022 . BBC News.
  24. Web site: Ryan . Jackson . 21 October 2021 . SpaceX Starship Raptor vacuum engine fired for the first time . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20220609051830/https://www.cnet.com/science/spacex-starship-raptor-vacuum-engine-fired-for-the-first-time/ . 9 June 2022 . 9 June 2022 . CNET.
  25. Web site: Chang . Kenneth . Sep 28, 2019 . Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20200407093459/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html . April 7, 2020 . 8 July 2022 . The New York Times.
  26. Web site: O'Callaghan . Jonathan . 31 July 2019 . The wild physics of Elon Musk's methane-guzzling super-rocket . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210222232043/https://www.wired.co.uk/article/spacex-raptor-engine-starship . 22 February 2021 . 9 December 2021 . Wired UK.
  27. Web site: Sommerlad . Joe . 28 May 2021 . Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html . 23 August 2021 . 4 December 2021 . The Independent.
  28. Sesnic . Trevor . Starbase Tour and Interview with Elon Musk . 12 October 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210812114027/https://everydayastronaut.com/starbase-tour-and-interview-with-elon-musk/ . 12 August 2021 . live . . 11 August 2021.
  29. News: Chang . Kenneth . Sep 28, 2019 . Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20200407093459/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html . April 7, 2020 . 8 July 2022 . The New York Times.
  30. News: Torchinsky . Rina . 17 March 2022 . Elon Musk hints at a crewed mission to Mars in 2029 . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20220608022151/https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 . 8 June 2022 . 16 June 2022 . .
  31. Web site: 2024-04-16 . SpaceX Mars Plans for 1,000 Spaceships to Deliver First Colonists Within 7 to 9 Years . 2024-04-16 . International Business Times UK . en.
  32. https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-first-mars-bound-bfr-spaceships-martian-habitats/ "SpaceX wants to use the first Mars-bound BFR spaceships as Martian habitats"
  33. https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/mars-2024-elon-musk "We're going to Mars by 2024 if Elon Musk has anything to say about it"
  34. Gwynne Shotwell . 2014-03-21 . Broadcast 2212: Special Edition, interview with Gwynne Shotwell . audio file . 2014-03-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140322013556/http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3 . March 22, 2014 . mp3 . 29:45–30:40 . The Space Show . 2212 . would have to throw a bunch of stuff before you start putting people there. ... It is a transportation system between Earth and Mars. . dead .
  35. News: Huge Mars Colony Eyed by SpaceX Founder . 2012-12-13 . 2014-03-14 . Discovery News .
  36. News: Carroll. Rory . Elon Musk's mission to Mars . 2014-02-05 . TheGuardian . 2013-07-17 .
  37. Web site: Sommerlad . Joe . 28 May 2021 . Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html . 23 August 2021 . 4 December 2021 . . en.
  38. News: Killelea . Eric . 16 December 2021 . Musk looks to Earth's atmosphere as source of rocket fuel . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20211220173105/https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-rocket-fuel-16707544.php . 20 December 2021 . 31 March 2022 . . en-US.
  39. News: Berger . Eric . 2016-09-28 . Musk's Mars moment: Audacity, madness, brilliance—or maybe all three . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20161013144816/http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/musks-mars-moment-audacity-madness-brilliance-or-maybe-all-three/ . October 13, 2016 . 2016-10-13 . Ars Technica.
  40. News: Foust . Jeff . 2016-10-10 . Can Elon Musk get to Mars? . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20161013071335/http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/can-elon-musk-get-to-mars/ . October 13, 2016 . 2016-10-12 . SpaceNews.
  41. News: Boyle . Alan . September 27, 2016 . SpaceX's Elon Musk makes the big pitch for his decades-long plan to colonize Mars . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20161003205159/http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spacex-elon-musk-colonize-mars/ . October 3, 2016 . October 3, 2016 . GeekWire.
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