| Election Name: | 2002 Portuguese legislative election |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 1999 Portuguese legislative election |
| Previous Year: | 1999 |
| Next Election: | 2005 Portuguese legislative election |
| Next Year: | 2005 |
| Seats For Election: | 230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly |
| Majority Seats: | 116 |
| Registered: | 8,902,713 0.4% |
| Turnout: | 5,473,655 (61.5%) 0.4 pp |
| Election Date: | 17 March 2002 |
| Leader1: | José Durão Barroso |
| Party1: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| Leader Since1: | 2 May 1999 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Lisbon |
| Last Election1: | 81 seats, 32.3% |
| Seats1: | 105 |
| Seat Change1: | 24 |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,200,765 |
| Percentage1: | 40.2% |
| Swing1: | 7.9 pp |
| Leader2: | Ferro Rodrigues |
| Party2: | Socialist Party (Portugal) |
| Leader Since2: | 20 January 2002 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Lisbon |
| Last Election2: | 115 seats, 44.1% |
| Seats2: | 96 |
| Seat Change2: | 19 |
| Popular Vote2: | 2,068,584 |
| Percentage2: | 37.8% |
| Swing2: | 6.3 pp |
| Leader3: | Paulo Portas |
| Party3: | CDS – People's Party |
| Leader Since3: | 22 March 1998 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Aveiro |
| Last Election3: | 15 seats, 8.3% |
| Seats3: | 14 |
| Seat Change3: | 1 |
| Popular Vote3: | 477,350 |
| Percentage3: | 8.7% |
| Swing3: | 0.4 pp |
| Colour4: | FF0000 |
| Leader4: | Carlos Carvalhas |
| Party4: | PCP |
| Alliance4: | CDU |
| Leader Since4: | 5 December 1992 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Lisbon |
| Last Election4: | 17 seats, 9.0% |
| Seats4: | 12 |
| Seat Change4: | 5 |
| Popular Vote4: | 379,870 |
| Percentage4: | 6.9% |
| Swing4: | 2.0 pp |
| Leader5: | Francisco Louçã |
| Party5: | Left Bloc (Portugal) |
| Leader Since5: | 24 March 1999 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Lisbon |
| Last Election5: | 2 seats, 2.4% |
| Seats5: | 3 |
| Seat Change5: | 1 |
| Popular Vote5: | 153,877 |
| Percentage5: | 2.7% |
| Swing5: | 0.4 pp |
| Prime Minister | |
| Posttitle: | Prime Minister after election |
| Before Election: | António Guterres |
| Before Party: | Socialist Party (Portugal) |
| After Election: | José Manuel Barroso |
| After Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.
With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.
As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.
Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.
After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis.[1] Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district.[2]
See also: 2001 Portuguese local elections. The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections.[3] The party lost major municipalities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp".[4] Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002.[5]
After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized.[6] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute.[7] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | José Manuel Durão Barroso| align=right | 469| align=right | 50.3|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Pedro Santana Lopes| align=right | 313| align=right | 33.6|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Luís Marques Mendes| align=right | 150| align=right | 16.1|-|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"| colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Turnout| align=right | 932| align=center | |-| colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results|}
Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,[8] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote.[9] In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes.[10] The results were the following: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%|-|bgcolor=|| align=left | Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues| align=right | | align=right | 96.5|-|bgcolor=|| align=left | Paulo Penedos| align=right | | align=right | 2.7|-| colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots| align=right | | align=right | 0.8|-|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"| colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Turnout| align=right | | align=center | |-| colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results|}
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[11]
The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[12] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[13]
For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[14]
| District | Number of MPs | Map |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 48 | |
| Porto | 38 | |
| Braga | 18 | |
| 17 | ||
| 15 | ||
| 10 | ||
| 9 | ||
| 8 | ||
| 6 | ||
| 5 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 3 | ||
| Europe and Outside Europe | 2 |
The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:
| Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | 1999 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Seats | ||||||
| PS | Socialist Party | Social democracy | Centre-left | Ferro Rodrigues | 44.1% | ||
| PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party | Centre-right | José Manuel Durão Barroso | 32.3% | |||
| PCP | Portuguese Communist Party | Communism Marxism–Leninism | Far-left | Carlos Carvalhas | 9.0% | ||
| PEV | Ecologist Party "The Greens" | Eco-socialism Green politics | Left-wing | Isabel Castro | |||
| CDS-PP | CDS – People's Party | Christian democracy Conservatism | Paulo Portas | 8.3% | |||
| BE | Left Bloc | Left-wing | Francisco Louçã | 2.4% | |||
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Refs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | « Fazer bem » | "Doing well" | [15] | ||
| PSD | « Somos todos Portugal » | "We are all Portugal" | [16] | ||
| CDU | « Mudar para melhor » | "Change for the better" | [17] | ||
| CDS–PP | « O braço direito de Portugal » | "Portugal's right-hand man" | [18] | ||
| BE | « Com Razões Fortes » | "With Strong Reasons" | [19] | ||
| 2002 Portuguese legislative election debates | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | |||||||||||||||||||
| PS | PSD | CDU | CDS–PP | BE | Refs | ||||||||||||||||
| 26 Feb | SIC | P | P | N | N | N | [20] | ||||||||||||||
| 12 Mar | RTP1 | Judite de Sousa José Alberto Carvalho | P | P | P | P | P | [21] | |||||||||||||
See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll. The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.
| Date Released | Polling Firm | PS | Others | Lead | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2002 | Leg. election | 37.8 | 40.2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | ||
| 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | RTP1 - Universidade Católica | 36.0–41.0 | 37.0–42.0 | 5.5–8.0 | 7.5–10.0 | 3.0–4.0 | — | 1.0 | ||
| 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | SIC - Eurosondagem | 35.5–39.3 | 40.1–43.9 | 6.2–8.4 | 6.2–8.4 | 2.0–3.4 | — | 4.6 | ||
| 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | TVI - INTERCAMPUS | 35.5–40.5 | 37.8–42.8 | 6.8–9.8 | 5.3–8.3 | 1.6–4.2 | — | 2.3 | ||
| 15 Mar 2002 | Marktest | 35.2 | 43.7 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 8.5 | ||
| 15 Mar 2002 | Lusófona | 40.9 | 43.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | |||
| 15 Mar 2002 | Eurosondagem | 39.3 | 41.4 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | ||
| 15 Mar 2002 | Eurequipa | 33.9 | 44.7 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 10.8 | ||
| 15 Mar 2002 | Universidade Católica | 37.5 | 42.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.7 | ||
| 14 Mar 2002 | INTERCAMPUS | 39.0 | 41.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | ||
| 14 Mar 2002 | Aximage | 40.0 | 44.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | ||
| 13 Mar 2002 | SIC/Visão | 36.2 | 41.0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 4.8 | ||
| 8 Mar 2002 | Marktest | 36.0 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| 2 Mar 2002 | Eurosondagem | 35.0 | 38.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | ||
| 27 Feb 2002 | Universidade Católica | 35.6 | 43.5 | 20.9 | 7.9 | |||||
| Feb 2002 | Marktest | 34.7 | 45.7 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 11.0 | ||
| Jan 2002 | Marktest | 33.8 | 41.8 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 8.0 | ||
| 22 Dec 2001 | Marktest | 34.0 | 39.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
| 16 Dec 2001 | Local elections | 37.1 | 41.0 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 3.9 | ||
| Nov 2001 | Marktest | 35.4 | 33.7 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | ||
| Oct 2001 | Marktest | 35.9 | 33.9 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | ||
| 26 Jan 2001 | Marktest | 37.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | ||
| 8 May 2000 | Universidade Católica | 40.9 | 32.5 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | ||
| 10 Oct 1999 | Leg. election | 44.1 | 32.3 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 11.9 | ||
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas. Due to lack of data from the 1999 election, it's not possible to compare the turnout throughout election day between the two elections.
| Turnout | Time | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | |||||||
| 1999 | 2002 | 1999 | 2002 | 1999 | 2002 | ± | |||
| Total | 18.00% | 45.88% | 61.09% | 61.48% | 0.39 pp | ||||
| Sources[22] [23] | |||||||||
|-| colspan=11| |-! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" |MPs %/
votes %|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center|1999! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center|2002! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±|-| |2,200,765||40.21||7.9||81||105||24||45.65||10.4||1.14|-| |2,068,584||37.79||6.3||115||96||19||41.74||8.3||1.10|-| |477,350||8.72||0.4||15||14||1||6.09||0.4||0.70|-| |379,870||6.94||2.1||17||12||5||5.22||2.2||0.75|-| |149,966||2.74||0.3||2||3||1||1.30||0.4||0.47|-| |36,193||0.66||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| |15,540||0.28||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| |12,398||0.23||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| |11,472||0.21||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-| |4,712||0.09||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-| |4,316||0.08||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#8b0000 align="center" ||align=left|Left Bloc/People's Democratic Union|3,911||0.07||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#000080 align="center" ||align=left|National Solidarity[24] |0||0.00||0.2||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid|width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,365,881|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|98.03|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—|-|colspan=2|Blank ballots|55,121||1.01||0.1||colspan=6 rowspan=4||-|colspan=2|Invalid ballots|52,653||0.96||0.0|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total|width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,473,655|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"||-|colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout||8,902,713||61.48||0.4|-| colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições|}
|- class="unsortable"!rowspan=2|Constituency!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!rowspan=2|Total
S|- class="unsortable" style="text-align:center;"!colspan=2 | PSD!colspan=2 | PS!colspan=2 | CDS–PP!colspan=2 | CDU!colspan=2 | BE|-| style="text-align:left;" | Azores| style="background:; color:white;"|45.4| 3| 41.0| 2| 8.4| -| 1.4| -| 1.4| -| 5|-| style="text-align:left;" | Aveiro| style="background:; color:white;"|46.4| 8| 33.5| 5| 12.9| 2| 2.6| -| 1.8| -| 15|-| style="text-align:left;" | Beja| 21.2| -| style="background:; color:white;"|43.5| 2| 3.7| -| 24.2| 1| 1.9| -| 3|-| style="text-align:left;" | Braga| style="background:; color:white;"|44.4| 9| 37.4| 8| 9.3| 1| 4.4| -| 1.7| -| 18|-| style="text-align:left;" | Bragança| style="background:; color:white;"|53.2| 3| 30.0| 1| 10.9| -| 1.9| -| 0.9| -| 4|-| style="text-align:left;" | Castelo Branco| 38.3| 2| style="background:; color:white;"|46.1| 3| 7.1| -| 3.3| -| 1.5| -| 5|-| style="text-align:left;" | Coimbra| 41.0| 5| style="background:; color:white;"|41.3| 5| 6.7| -| 5.1| -| 2.4| -| 10|-| style="text-align:left;" | Évora| 25.3| 1| style="background:; color:white;"|42.8| 1| 4.6| -| 21.8| 1| 1.8| -| 3|-| style="text-align:left;" | Faro| 37.7| 4| style="background:; color:white;"|40.5| 4| 8.3| -| 6.3| -| 2.8| -| 8|-| style="text-align:left;" | Guarda| style="background:; color:white;"|48.5| 2| 34.7| 2| 9.6| -| 2.2| -| 1.2| -| 4|-| style="text-align:left;" | Leiria| style="background:; color:white;"|50.8| 6| 29.5| 3| 9.8| 1| 4.1| -| 2.2| -| 10|-| style="text-align:left;" | Lisbon| 35.7| 18| style="background:; color:white;"|38.7| 20| 8.5| 4| 8.8| 4| 4.7| 2| 48|-| style="text-align:left;" | Madeira| style="background:; color:white;"|53.5| 4| 25.8| 1| 12.1| -| 2.5| -| 3.1| -| 5|-| style="text-align:left;" | Portalegre| 30.6| 1| style="background:; color:white;"|45.2| 2| 6.4| -| 12.4| -| 1.6| -| 3|-| style="text-align:left;" | Porto| 40.0| 16| style="background:; color:white;"|41.2| 17| 8.4| 3| 4.6| 1| 2.7| 1| 38|-| style="text-align:left;" | Santarém| 38.1| 4| style="background:; color:white;"|38.4| 4| 8.4| 1| 8.6| 1| 2.9| -| 10|-| style="text-align:left;" | Setúbal| 24.7| 5| style="background:; color:white;"|39.3| 7| 6.9| 1| 20.5| 4| 4.6| -| 17|-| style="text-align:left;" | Viana do Castelo| style="background:; color:white;"|45.5| 3| 35.3| 3| 10.3| -| 3.5| -| 1.8| -| 6|-| style="text-align:left;" | Vila Real| style="background:; color:white;"|54.1| 3| 31.9| 2| 8.1| -| 2.0| -| 0.9| -| 5|-| style="text-align:left;" | Viseu| style="background:; color:white;"|52.1| 5| 31.1| 3| 10.6| 1| 1.5| -| 1.4| -| 9|-| style="text-align:left;" | Europe| 36.9| 1| style="background:; color:white;"|42.1| 1| 5.0| -| 4.8| -| 1.1| -| 2|-| style="text-align:left;" | Outside Europe| style="background:; color:white;"|66.3| 2| 21.5| -| 3.4| -| 0.9| -| 0.4| -| 2|-|- class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"| style="text-align:left;" | Total| style="background:; color:white;"|40.2| 105| 37.8| 96| 8.7| 14| 6.9| 12| 2.7| 3| 230|-| colspan=12 style="text-align:left;" | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições|}
After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's.[25] This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, even hosting a summit at Lajes Field, in the Azores, between the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain, which divided public opinion.[26] In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33 percent of the votes, against the 44 percent of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission.[27] Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister.[28]
Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions.[29] One of these disputes was the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful".[30] Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit",[31] and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a President.[32] [33] Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation.[34] A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005.[35]
