11–26 March 2022 | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | 1,000 | 33.4% | |
| 7.6% | | In 15–20 years*"Neither Agree/Disagree"|-|October 2015|RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI|1,407|30%||27%| –||"...in your lifetime?"|}By religion, age and region
2024 poll
Answer | Age band |
---|
18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ |
---|
Yes (to a United Ireland) | | | | 42% | 28% | 36% | No | 43% | 41% | 42% | | | | Don't know | 9% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 13% | Lead | | | | | | | |
2022 poll
Answer | Age band | Religion |
---|
18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ | No religion | Catholic | Protestant |
---|
Yes (to a United Ireland) | | | 36% | 34% | 33% | 26% | 36% | | 8% | No | 24% | 37% | | | | | | 14% | | Don't know | 22% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 7% | |
2016 poll
In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[45]
| Belfast City | Greater Belfast | Down | Armagh | Tyrone/Fermanagh | Londonderry | Antrim |
---|
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | | | | | | | | Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 17% | 10% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 28% | 17% | Don't know | 17% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 19% | 16% | 6% | Would not vote | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% | | The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[46] Age band | 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ |
---|
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | | | | | | | Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 19% | 19% | 30% | 28% | 22% | 14% | Don't know | 12% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 7% | | Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,Answer | Community background |
---|
Protestant | Catholic | Neither |
---|
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | | 37% | | Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 5% | | 15% | Don't know | 5% | 17% | 30% | |
2014 poll
An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[47] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[48]
Answer | All persons | Religion | Age band |
---|
Protestant | Catholic | 18–24 | 25–44 | 45–64 | 65+ |
---|
Yes, for unity as soon as possible | 5.7% | 1.8% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | Yes, for unity in 20 years | 24.0% | 9.6% | | 27.8% | 26.6% | 23.0% | 19.7% | No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is | | | 20.7% | | | | | No opinion/would not vote | 26.3% | 30.8% | 30.1% | 23.4% | 29.9% | 27.6% | 23.0% | |
Brexit scenario polls
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote | Lead | Non standard question |
---|
October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[49] | 1,334 | 48% | 48% | 4% | – | Even | If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU | October–November 2018 | LucidTalk | 1,334 | | 42% | 3% | – | | No deal scenario | October–November 2018 | LucidTalk | 1,334 | 29% | | 11% | – | | If the UK remained an EU member state | September 2018 | OFOC/Deltapoll[50] | | | 39% | 9% | | "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..." | December 2017 | LucidTalk[51] [52] | | | 45% | 6% | 0.7% | | In the context of a hard Brexit | |
In the Republic of Ireland
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote | Lead | Notes |
---|
November 2023 | ARINS/ The Irish Times | >1,000 | | 16% | 13% | 5% | | | August & September 2022 | The Irish Times/Arins Project[53] | 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic | | 16% | 13% | 5% | | | December 2021 | Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI[54] | 1,200[55] | | 16% | 13% | 8% | | | November 2021 | Business Post/Red C[56] | 1,001 | | 25% | 15% | | | | March 2021 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[57] | 1,000 | | 19% | 28% | | | "Is it time for a united Ireland?" | May 2019 | RTÉ/REDC[58] | Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations | | 19% | 15% | | | January 2019 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[59] | 1,000 | | 21% | 25% | | | "Are you in favour of a united Ireland" | March 2017 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[60] | 1,200 | | 29% | 22% | | | | December 2016 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[61] [62] | | | 32% | 22% | | | "Is it time to have a united Ireland"54% aged 25–34 said yes | October 2010 | Red C/Sunday Times[63] | 1,005 | | 22% | 21% | | | | |
Short to medium term
"In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)[64] | Proportion |
---|
Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster | 9% | Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) | 35% | Unify with the rest of Ireland | 36% | Other | 1% | None of these | 2% | Don't know | 17% | |
Long term
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | Notes |
---|
February 2019 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[65] | 1,000 | | 18% | 19% | | "in their lifetime" | October 2015 | RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[66] | 1,407 | | 14% | 20% | | "in your lifetime?" | |
When asked about tax
"Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)[67] | You would have to pay less tax | There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay | You would have to pay more tax |
---|
In favour of a united Ireland | | | 31% | Against a united Ireland | 8% | 14% | | Don't know | 18% | 24% | 25% | |
In Great Britain
A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[68] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.
A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.[69]
See also
References
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