Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election explained

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

National poll results

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2024

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Lib Dems	Green	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	Others	Lead		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Opinium	The Observer	GB	2,050	29%	25%	21%	10%	9%		4
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,648	28%	27%	18%	13%	6%		1
	Find Out Now	N/A	GB	2,316	25%	27%	22%	12%	9%		2
	BMG Research	The i	GB	1,531	29%	27%	20%	12%	7%		2
	More in Common	N/A	GB	1,972	27%	30%	18%	12%	8%		3
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,632	29%	27%	17%	12%	7%		2
	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,002	25%	28%	19%	13%	8%		3
	Deltapoll	N/A	GB	1,749	29%	27%	18%	12%	8%		2
	JL Partners	The Sun / Politico	GB	2,024	27%	26%	20%	12%	9%		1
	Techne	N/A	GB	1,643	28%	27%	17%	13%	7%		1
	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,646	30%	24%	21%	12%	8%		6
	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,007	27%	29%	19%	11%	8%		2
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,636	29%	25%	18%	13%	7%		4
	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,007	28%	26%	18%	14%	8%		2
	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,548	31%	24%	20%	10%	10%		7
	BMG Research	The i	GB	1,511	28%	29%	17%	13%	8%		1
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,632	30%	24%	18%	14%	7%		6
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,644	29%	24%	19%	13%	7%		5
	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,565	31%	24%	20%	12%	8%		7
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,636	28%	25%	19%	13%	7%		3
	JL Partners	The Telegraph	GB	2,000	29%	25%	19%	14%	7%		4
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,651	29%	24%	19%	12%	7%		5
	More in Common	The Times	GB	2,000	27%	27%	21%	13%	7%		data-sort-value="0"	Tie
	More in Common	Politico	GB	2,023	29%	28%	19%	11%	7%		1
	Deltapoll	N/A	GB	2,108	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%		4
	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,491	31%	24%	20%	11%	8%		7
	BMG Research	i	GB	1,562	30%	25%	20%	13%	7%		5
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,643	31%	23%	18%	13%	7%		8
	Techne	N/A	UK	1,638	32%	22%	18%	13%	7%		10
	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,080	30%	26%	18%	13%	8%		4
	Techne	The Independent	UK	1,641	33%	21%	18%	13%	7%		12
	More in Common	Politico	GB	1,542	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%		4
	BMG Research	i	GB	1,560	30%	26%	19%	12%	8%		4
	We Think	N/A	GB	1,278	33%	20%	21%	11%	8%		12
	BMG Research	i	GB	1,523	33%	24%	18%	12%	8%	4%	9
	Stonehaven	N/A	GB	2,048	34%	22%	17%	12%	9%	6%	12
	We Think	N/A	GB	2,012	36%	22%	17%	11%	7%		14
	We Think	N/A	GB	2,005	39%	20%	16%	11%	9%	5%	19
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election	–	UK	–	33.7%	23.7%	14.3%	12.2%	6.8%	9.3%	10.0
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election	–	GB	–	34.7%	24.4%	14.7%	12.5%	6.9%	6.8%	10.3

Seat projections

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Samplesize	Area	Lab	Con	Lib Dems	SNP	Reform	Green	Plaid Cymru	Others	Majority
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Samplesize	Area	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	Others	Majority	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	UK	411	121	72	9	5	4	4		Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

Scotland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	SNP	Con	Lib Dems	Reform	Green	Others	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		Others	Lead	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Survation	Progress Scotland	3,016	28%	31%	15%	6%	13%	5%		3
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,013	23%	30%	15%	10%	14%	6%	2%	7
	Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
	Survation	Progress Scotland	2,059	31%	31%	14%	9%	11%	3%	1%	Tie
	Opinium	The Sunday Times	1,028	25%	32%	14%	8%	11%	7%	2%	7
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,011	32%	29%	12%	8%	12%	5%	2%	3
2024 general election^[2]	–	35.3%	30.0%	12.7%	9.7%	7.0%	3.8%	1.6%	5.3

Wales

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Green	Others	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		Others	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Andrew RT Davies resigns as leader of the Welsh Conservatives
	Survation	Reform UK	2,006	33%	18%	21%	13%	9%	5%	0%	12
2024 general election^[3]	–	37.0%	18.2%	16.9%	14.8%	6.5%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8

English Mayoral Regions

London

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dems	Green	Reform	Others	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	Others		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Savanta	N/A	?	36%	24%	12%	12%	13%	3%	12
2024 general election	–	43.1%	20.4%	11.0%	10.1%	8.7%	6.7%	22.7

Approval polling

Leadership approval

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Kemi Badenoch			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
26 Nov - Dec 2	Morning Consult	-	30%	59%	-29
	Opinium	2,020	22%	54%	–32	22%	28%	–6	29%	38%	–9	22%	21%	+1	–			–
	BMG Research	1,531	25%	53%	–28	23%	16%	+7	27%	34%	–7	23%	18%	+5	–			–
	More in Common	1,749	24%	53%	–29	20%	26%	–6	25%	41%	–16	–			–			–
	Deltapoll	1,749	29%	61%	–32	24%	38%	–14	–			–			–			–
	JL Partners	2,024	25%	48%	–23	22%	23%	–1	31%	41%	–10	20%	21%	–1	12%	12%	-	11%	10%	+1
	Opinium	2,068	25%	50%	–25	20%	25%	–5	29%	37%	–8	23%	19%	+3	–			–
8-11 Nov 2024	Ipsos	1,139	23%	52%	–29	21%	39%	–18	28%	48%	–20	21%	31%	–10	17%	26%	–9	16%	26%	–10
	More In Common	2,111	24%	48%	–24	17%	19%	–2	–			16%	21%	–5	–			–
	YouGov	2,099	28%	61%	–33	21%	41%	–20	30%	61%	–31	24%	31%	–7	7%	14%	–7	4%	12%	–8
	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Rishi Sunak			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
	BMG Research	1,511	23%	49%	–26	28%	33%	–5	28%	35%	–7	19%	19%	-	–			–
	Opinium	2,016	26%	50%	–24	23%	45%	–22	28%	40%	–12	23%	19%	+4	–			–
	Savanta	2,135	30%	48%	–18	28%	49%	–21	31%	46%	–14	22%	28%	–5	15%	20%	–5	13%	20%	–7
	Opinium	2,007	21%	53%	–32	20%	45%	–25	25%	39%	–14	22%	20%	+2	–			–
	More In Common	2,073	18%	56%	–38	18%	49%	–31	–			–			–			–
	More In Common	2,023	21%	54%	–33	19%	51%	–32	–			–			–			–
	Deltapoll	2,108	30%	61%	–31	27%	65%	–38	–			–			–			–
	YouGov	2,121	27%	63%	–36	24%	66%	–42	28%	63%	–35	25%	32%	–7	–			–
	Opinium	2,055	24%	52%	–28	18%	47%	–29	26%	42%	–16	21%	21%	-	–			–
	BMG Research	1,562	25%	50%	–25	23%	41%	–18	29%	32%	–4	21%	20%	+1	–			–
	Opinium	2,003	23%	53%	–30	20%	46%	–26	29%	40%	–11	22%	23%	–1	–			–
	More In Common	2,080	21%	48%	–27	17%	52%	–35	–			–			–			–
	YouGov	2,137	30%	60%	–30	24%	68%	–44	28%	63%	–35	27%	36%	–9	–			–
	Opinium	2,050	24%	50%	–26	21%	46%	–25	27%	39%	–12	24%	21%	+3	–			–
	More In Common	2,024	25%	45%	–20	–			–			–			–			–
	BMG Research	1,560	28%	44%	–16	22%	46%	–24	28%	37%	–9	19%	21%	–2	–			–
	More In Common	2,015	27%	43%	–16	17%	58%	–41	–			–			–			–
	Opinium	2,000	32%	38%	–6	20%	50%	–30	24%	43%	–19	21%	21%	-	–			–
	We Think	1,278	33%	42%		22%	57%	–35	29%	44%	–15	18%	36%	–18	14%	28%	–14	10%	26%	–16
	BMG Research	1,523	30%	33%		19%	42%	–23	23%	37%	–14	21%	16%	+5	–			–
	YouGov	2,163	37%	53%		23%	71%	–48	25%	67%	–42	–			–			–
	2024 United Kingdom riots end
	Opinium	2,063	35%	32%	+3	18%	48%	–30	25%	40%	–15	24%	19%	+5	19%	17%	+2	19%	17%	+2
	YouGov	2,233	40%	49%	–9	23%	70%	–47	27%	62%	–35	27%	33%		9%	12%		3%	10%
	We Think	2,012	42%	37%	+5	25%	61%	–36	30%	50%	–20	21%	36%		16%	34%		12%	32%
	Opinium	2,010	38%	20%	+18	20%	42%		–			25%	18%	+7	21%	15%	+6	21%	15%	+6
	Morning Consult	–	45%	25%	+20	–			–			–			–			–
	We Think	2,005	38%	15%	+23	21%	31%	–10	–			–			–			–
	YouGov^[4]	2,102	44%	47%		23%	70%	–47	27%	65%		34%	29%	+5	13%	16%	–3	7%	14%	–7
	Ipsos^[5]	1,141	40%	33%	+7	21%	57%	–36	26%	52%	–26	29%	26%	+3	–			–

Party approval

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Labour			Conservative			Reform			Lib Dems			Green

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
8-11 Nov 2024	More In Common	2,011	21%	47%		16%	43%		–			17%	23%		–
8-10 Nov 2024	YouGov	2,099	30%	61%		25%	67%		26%	59%		38%	42%		41%	39%	+2
2 Nov 2024	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9-10 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,072	24%	51%		15%	52%		–			–			–
5-7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,015	24%	51%		15%	53%		–			–			–
5-7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,082	24%	51%		15%	53%		–			–			–
20–22 Sep 2024	YouGov	2,132	32%	59%		24%	67%		26%	62%		37%	45%		40%	42%
24–27 Aug 2024	More In Common	2,015	25%	45%		15%	57%		–			–			–
5–6 Aug 2024	YouGov	2,163	39%	53%		23%	70%		–			–			–
5–8 Jul 2024	YouGov	2,102	47%	46%	+1	21%	72%		28%	62%		45%	37%	+8	46%	38%	+8
5–6 Jul 2024	Ipsos	1,141	40%	34%	+6	20%	59%	–39	25%	51%	–26	29%	28%	+1	33%	28%	+6

Preferred prime minister

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Kemi Badenoch	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Carla Denyer	Adrian Ramsay	None	Don't know	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		None	Don't know	Lead	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	YouGov	2,203	27%	22%	–	–	–	–	4%	47%	5
2 Nov 2024	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
	YouGov	2,234	27%	20%	–	–	–	–	–	47%	7
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Rishi Sunak	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Carla Denyer	Adrian Ramsay	None	Don't know	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		None	Don't know	Lead	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Savanta	2,135	39%	32%	–	–	–	–	45%	11%	7
	Opinium	2,003	25%	19%	–	–	–	–	45%	–	6
	Opinium	2,049	27%	18%	–	–	–	–	46%	10%	9
	Opinium	2,050	28%	18%	–	–	–	–	44%	10%	10
	Opinium	2,040	34%	15%	–	–	–	–	40%	11%	19
	Opinium	1,996	36%	16%	–	–	–	–	37%	12%	20
	We Think	1,278	26%	10%	20%	5%	2%	2%	20%	15%	6
	Opinium	2,063	38%	14%	–	–	–	–	37%	11%	24
	We Think	2,012	30%	11%	18%	4%	3%	1%	18%	15%	12
	Opinium	2,010	37%	14%	–	–	–	–	34%	15%	23
	We Think	2,005	30%	11%	14%	5%	4%	1%	20%	13%	16

Other polling

Hypothetical polling

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Datesconducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Samplesize	Hypothetical Conservative leader		Lab	Con	Lib Dems	SNP	Reform	Green	Plaid Cymru	Others	Majority / lead
Datesconducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Samplesize	Hypothetical Conservative leader		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	Others	Majority / lead	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
11–15 Oct 2024	Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)	Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick	GB	6,289	Kemi Badenoch	Seats	332	151	63	48	25	4	4	5	Lab 14
					Kemi Badenoch	Vote share	29%	22%	12%	4%	21%	10%	1%	1%	7
					Robert Jenrick	Seats	311	178	58	48	24	4	4	5	Hung
					Robert Jenrick	Vote share	28%	23%	12%	4%	20%	11%	1%	1%	5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Kemi Badenoch	Robert Jenrick	None	Don't know	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"	None	Don't know	Lead	data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
30–31 Oct 2024	YouGov	2,234	27%	20%	–	47%	6%	7
30–31 Oct 2024	YouGov	2,234	29%	–	21%	45%	5%	8
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	41%	23%	–	–	35%	18
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	41%	–	25%	–	35%	16

Notes and References

News: Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map . . 5 July 2024 . 8 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240708074246/https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/regions/N92000002 . live .
News: Scotland election results 2024 | Constituency map . . 27 November 2024 . 7 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240707000500/https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/regions/S92000003 . live .
News: Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map . . 5 July 2024 . 5 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240705074837/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/regions/W92000004 . live .
Web site: Smith . Matthew . Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory . 9 July 2024 . YouGov UK.
Web site: 5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB . Ipsos . PDF.