Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public), along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar.[1] The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is expected to take place in late 2026.
The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | data-sort-type="number" style="width:40px;" | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-value="2024-11-28" | 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 31 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | – | – | 1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-11-27" | 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 3 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-11-24" | 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 28.5 | 28 | 13.5 | 9 | 6.5 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.5 | |
| 10–19 Nov 2024 | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-11-10" | 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-11-10" | 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3.3 | – | – | 1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-10-20" | 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-10-09" | 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 37 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 8 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-10-07" | 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 4.6 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-09-22" | 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 37.5 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-09-10" | 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 26.7 | 11 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 12.3 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-09-10" | 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 37 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | – | 5 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-08-25" | 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 36 | 26.5 | 13 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-08-14" | 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 38 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 8 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 32.5 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 6.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 11.7 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-06-23" | 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-06-19" | 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 9 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 6 | |
| 30 May 2024 | Budget 2024 is delivered. | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-05-19" | 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 33.5 | 30 | 14 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-05-10" | 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 7.3 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-04-30" | 30 Apr 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-04-24" | 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 6 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-04-21" | 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13 | 11 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-04-04" | 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3 | 11.4 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-03-24" | 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38 | 23 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 15 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-03-10" | 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 38 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | – | – | – | 10 | |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[2] | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-03-05" | 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 12.1 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-02-25" | 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14 | |
| 21 Feb 2024 | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49.[3] | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-14" | 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 10 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-02-10" | 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – | 9 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-07" | 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9 | 13.7 | 5 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 | 11.7 | |
| 30 Jan 2024 | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[4] | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-01-31" | 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 22 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 16 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-01-10" | 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | – | 12.6 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-12-31" | 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36 | 22 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-12-05" | 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | – | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5 | – | 4.6 | 7.7 | |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[5] | ||||||||||||
| 27 Nov 2023 | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | ||||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2023-11-30" | 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-11-06" | 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 8.7 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-10-14" | 14 Oct 2023 | data-sort-value="z" | 2023 election result | N/A | 38.08 | 26.92 | 11.61 | 8.64 | 6.09 | 3.08 | 2.22 | 3.36 | 11.16 |
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | Lead | ||
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | Luxon | Hipkins | Swarbrick | Seymour | Peters | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-value="2024-11-28" | 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 22.1 | 22.7 | – | – | – | 0.6 | |||
| data-sort-value="2024-11-27" | 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 41 | 42 | – | – | – | 1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-11-10" | 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.5 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 11 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-11-10" | 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 23 | – | – | – | 2 | |||
| data-sort-value="2024-10-09" | 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-10-07" | 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.7 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 10.8 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-09-10" | 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.7 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-09-10" | 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 26 | 22 | – | – | – | 4 | |||
| data-sort-value="2024-08-14" | 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.5 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 15.8 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-06-19" | 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.4 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-05-10" | 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 25 | – | – | – | Tie | |||
| data-sort-value="2024-04-24" | 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | ||||||||||
| data-sort-value="2024-03-10" | 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 24 | 23 | – | – | – | 1 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-14" | 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-10" | 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 27 | 23 | – | – | – | 4 | |||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-07" | 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-01-10" | 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 13 | – | – | – | 18 | ||
| data-sort-value="2023-12-05" | 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 30 | 22 | – | – | – | 8 | |||
| data-sort-value="2023-11-06" | 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | ||
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-value="2024-11-27" | 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 48 | 17 | 13 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-11-24" | 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 46.5 | 42.5 | 11 | 4 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-11-10" | 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 40 | 46 | 14 | 6 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-10-20" | 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 36.5 | 50.5 | 13 | 14 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-09-22" | 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 39 | 46.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-09-10" | 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 42 | 47 | 11 | 5 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-08-25" | 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 43 | 45.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 38 | 48 | 14 | 10 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 47.3 | 33.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-06-23" | 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35.5 | 52.5 | 12 | 17 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-05-19" | 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 43 | 47 | 10 | 4 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-05-10" | 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 52 | 10 | 14 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 45.1 | 42.6 | 12.3 | 2.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-04-21" | 25 Mar–21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 34.5 | 49 | 16.5 | 14.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-03-24" | 26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 35 | 54 | 11 | 19 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-03-10" | 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 40 | 48 | 12 | 8 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-03-05" | 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 43.4 | 17 | 3.9 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-02-25" | 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 2 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-02-10" | 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 43 | 41 | 16 | 2 | ||
| data-sort-value="2024-02-07" | 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.7 | 35.2 | 25.1 | 4.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2024-01-28" | 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 1 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-12-17" | 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 45 | 17 | 7 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-11-26" | 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 36.5 | 46 | 17.5 | 9.5 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-11-14" | 9–12 Nov 2023 | Guardian Essential | 1,193 | 29 | 48 | 23 | 19 | |
| data-sort-value="2023-11-06" | 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 49 | 22 | 20 |