Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election explained

In preparation for the next presidential elections in Romania, which took place on November 24 (first round) and second round who will take place on December 8, 2024, various polling companies and organizations in Romania have already conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intention among the electorate in assembly. The results of all these opinion polls are shown in the annual tables below in this Wikipedia article.

Second round

Georgescu vs Lasconi

PollDateSampleGeorgescu
Ind.		Lasconi
USR
Curs1 December 202424,62957.842.2
Sociopol27 - 29 November 20241,00060.040.0
AtlasIntel26 - 28 November 20242,11645.347.5

First round

After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD		Simion
AUR		Ciucă
PNL		Lasconi
USR		Kelemen
UDMR		Diaconescu
Ind.		Terheș
PNCR		Birchall
Ind.		Orban
FD		Georgescu
Ind.		Others
Election24 Nov 20246.319.113.98.819.24.53.11.00.50.222.90.5
AtlasIntel20–22 Nov 20241.6926.923.716.914.317.82.96.21.00.70.88.10.7
Verifield for USR20–21 Nov 20241.8037.924.519.08.619.03.45.10.70.6—10.60.6
AtlasIntel15–20 Nov 20242.0037.024.315.412.115.35.93.32.14.21.56.22.7
INSOMAR14–20 Nov 20241.0428.424.416.215.612.73.64.43.8——6.8—
Verifield for USR8–14 Nov 20249688.126.318.87.317.14.76.82.8—1.14.92.1
INSCOP7–12 Nov 20241.10013.325.319.19.114.34.14.62.10.81.05.40.6[1]
BCS7–10 Nov 20241.1577.627.111.917.714.35.74.92.90.51.05.8—
Sociopol4–8 Nov 20241.0019.029.021.015.012.02.09.03.0————
CIRA1–6 Nov 20241.1509.029.017.019.0161.0——1.0—1.0—
Verifield for USR1–6 Nov 20241.06413.225.921.28.515.72.94.40.31.21.14.61.0[2]
CURS[3] 30 Oct–5 Nov1.0679.028.017.017.012.05.05.04.02.0——1.0
Argument18-23 Oct 20241.10014.626.818.412.915.91.34.80.40.50.7—3.6
Sociopol14-18 Oct 20241.00310.026.020.017.013.02.09.01.0—1.01.0—
INSCOP11-18 Oct 20241.10618.124.120.78.215.03.85.11.90.91.9—0.3
CURS[4] 11-16 Oct 20241.00615.026.017.015.014.02.05.02.02.02.0—2.0
Verifield for USR7-9 Oct 20241.00917.223.419.86.217.13.87.63.10.70.7—0.4
Sociopol[5] 7-9 Oct 20241.00410.026.019.017.012.02.09.02.02.01.02.0—

Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD		Simion
AUR		Ciucă
PNL		Șoșoacă
S.O.S.		USR[6] Kelemen
UDMR		Cioloș
REPER		Kövesi
Ind.		Others
INSOMAR-Avangarde15–27 Sep 20241.10015.030.011.017.07.014.02.0———
CURS10–23 Sep 20241.06716.029.011.018.07.012.0————
INSCOP11–16 Sep 20241.10220.820.512.45.612.516.03.6
FlashData5–13 Sep 20241.10016.024.019.013.08.013.0———7.0
Verifield15–30 august 20241.79317.821.914.95.912.916.31.8——8.5
Sociopol26 Aug-3 Sep 20241,00514.026.019.010.09.014.01.0
Verifield for USRAug 2024TBA21.017.214.17.313.915.32.38.8
The Center for International Research and Analyses24–30 Aug 20241,09914.025.013.016.011.013.03.0——5.0
CURS6–22 Aug 20241,06715.032.014.019.05.011.0———4.0
ARA for Antena39–26 Jul 20241,00920.028.010.06.012.012.0———14.0
CURS18–26 Jul 20241,06715.031.015.019.04.012.03.0———
Sociopol9–17 Jul 20241,00215.025.019.012.09.014.01.0———
CURS26 Jun–2 Jul 20241,06717.030.013.020.06.09.03.0——2.0
INSCOP19–27 June 20241,10026.717.811.211.913.414.33.41.2
CSPSJune 20241,01324.016.028.06.04.017.05.0———
INSCOP20–25 May 20241,10023.718.213.511.512.58.65.56.4
AtlasIntel5–9 April 20241,76433.611.810.710.91.46.9
279.612.6510.611.30.76.1
27.39.212.49.813.63.06.4-
INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00026.024.013.012.08.03.09.0-
INSCOP Research16–24 Jan 20241,10026.518.913.311.414.05.93.65.1-1.3
Snap Market Research3–8 Jan 2024998122913814—5—109

Opinion polls with Geoană (independent) (2023)

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD		Simion
AUR		Ciucă
PNL		Șoșoacă
S.O.S.		Drulă
USR		Lasconi
USR		Orban
FD		Kelemen
UDMR		Cioloș
REPER		Kövesi
Ind.		Hellvig
Ind.		Others
INSCOP20–27 Nov 20231,10026.220.814.012.114.44.2——2.43.9——1.9
INSCOP23 Oct–2 Nov 20231,10027.721.818.9—10.5—12.1—3.14.3———
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00020.410.37.70.713.36.92.33.43.02.410.96.413.4
INSCOP15–22 Sep 20231,55025.319.518.711.210.15.6——2.74.1——3.4
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00022.6—10.64.96.18.0—3.84.42.016.40.420.9
14.66.29.74.65.54.5—5.12.95.116.90.524.2
ElectionNov 201922.2637.820.34! 15.02—3.87————

Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)

PollDateSampleCiucă
PNL		Ciolacu
PSD		Drulă
USR		Kelemen
UDMR		Kövesi
Ind.		Simion
AUR		Șoșoacă
S.O.S.		Cioloș
REPER		Orban
FD		Hellvig
Ind.		Others
INSCOP20–27 Nov 20231,10014.127.47.12.7—18.019.16.7——4.9
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,0008.013.37.42.115.710.45.95.35.02.924.1
ElectionNov 201937.8222.2615.023.87—0.34! ————

Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)

PollDateSampleCîțuPNLOrbanPNLCiolacuPSDBarnaUSR PLUSCioloșUSR PLUSDrulăUSR PLUSDiaconescuPMPKelemenUDMRSimionAURȘoșoacăNR/S.O.S.GeoanăInd.DragneaPAINE/ApPOthers
[7] 15–31 Jul 20211,11211.04.022.05.033.06.0
INSOMAR[8] 1–8 May 20211,03012.0316.122.0013.48.314.24.06.63.37
INSOMAR[9] 8–11 Feb 20211,0303.011.423.021.012.63.017.00.08.96
ElectionNov 201937.8222.2615.025.723.870.34-! 14.97

The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD		Simion
AUR		Ciucă
PNL		Șoșoacă
S.O.S.		Drulă
USR		Kelemen
UDMR		Cioloș
REPER		Piedone
PUSL		Others/
N/A
iDATA22 – 26 Apr 20241,00615.03.12.43.44.80.71.05.56.158.0[10]
34.67.15.57.811.11.6[11] 2.312.714.1
CBS-Research6 – 13 Apr 20241,00814.14.71.02.44.10.972.8[12]
51.917.33.715.014.03.3

Hypothetical second round

Geoană vs Ciolacu

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD
INSCOP19 - 27 June 20241,10063.736.3
INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00061.039.0
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00064.935.1

Geoană vs Simion

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Simion
AUR
INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00075.025.0
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00071.828.2
INSCOP15–22 Sep 20231,55063.536.5
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00069.530.5

Geoană vs Ciucă

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP19–27 June 20241,10063.936.1
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00076.223.8

Geoană vs Kövesi

PollDateSampleGeoană
Ind.		Kövesi
Ind.
INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00066.034.0
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00061.238.8
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00053.146.9

Ciolacu vs Simion

PollDateSampleCiolacu
PSD		Simion
AUR
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00069.530.5
INSCOP15–22 Sep 20231,55058.841.2
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00054.145.9

Ciolacu vs Ciucă

PollDateSampleCiolacu
PSD		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00063.037.0
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00051.748.3

Ciolacu vs Kövesi

PollDateSampleKövesi
Ind.		Ciolacu
PSD
AtlasIntel20–29 Oct 20232,00058.641.4
AtlasIntel27–30 Jan 20232,00057.842.2

Notes

  1. Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.6%
  2. Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%
  3. Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
  4. Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
  5. Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
  6. Cătălin Drulă in January, February, April and May 2024

    Elena Lasconi since june 2024

  7. Web site: Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni. Gazeta Civică Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. 2021-08-05. ro-RO. 2021-08-04. https://web.archive.org/web/20210804211517/https://www.gazetacivica.ro/politica/va-prezentam-cifrele-ultimului-sondaj-pentru-palatul-cotroceni/. dead.
  8. Web site: Opțiuni politice de mai INSOMAR.ORG. insomar.org. 2021-05-14. ro-RO.
  9. News: SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice. Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12.
  10. None of the above – 15% Don't know/No answer – 41.6% Dan Barna – 1.4%Dan Barna – 1,4%
  11. Dan Barna 3.2%
  12. 44% of respondents indicated that they have not yet decided who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, while 24.8% would not participate in the vote. 4.0% NR

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