| Election Name: | Next Tasmanian state election |
| Country: | Tasmania |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2024 Tasmanian state election |
| Previous Year: | 2024 |
| Next Year: | Next |
| Seats For Election: | All 35 seats in the House of Assembly |
| Majority Seats: | 18 |
| Election Date: | No later than 3 June 2028 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Leader1: | Jeremy Rockliff |
| Leader Since1: | 8 April 2022 |
| Party1: | Tasmanian Liberal Party |
| Leaders Seat1: | Braddon |
| Last Election1: | 14 seats, 36.7% |
| Seats Before1: | 14 |
| Seats Needed1: | 4 |
| Leader2: | Dean Winter |
| Leader Since2: | 10 April 2024 |
| Party2: | Tasmanian Labor Party |
| Leaders Seat2: | Franklin |
| Last Election2: | 10 seats, 29.0% |
| Seats Before2: | 10 |
| Seats Needed2: | 8 |
| Leader4: | Rosalie Woodruff |
| Leader Since4: | 13 July 2023 |
| Party4: | Tasmanian Greens |
| Leaders Seat4: | Franklin |
| Last Election4: | 5 seats, 13.9% |
| Seats Before4: | 5 |
| Seats Needed4: | 13 |
| Leader5: | Jacqui Lambie |
| Leader Since5: | 14 May 2015 |
| Party5: | Jacqui Lambie Network |
| Leaders Seat5: | Ineligible |
| Last Election5: | 3 seats, 6.7% |
| Seats Before5: | 1 |
| Seats Needed5: | 17 |
| Premier | |
| Before Election: | Jeremy Rockliff |
| Before Party: | Liberal Party |
| Posttitle: | Elected Premier |
The next Tasmanian state election will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the House of Assembly. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).
The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. Minor parties, including the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
See also: 2021 Tasmanian state election.
The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[1] [2] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2025.[3]
The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne.[4] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly.[5] [6]
On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity.[7] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.[8] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.[9]
| Seat | Before | Change | After | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Member | Party | Type | Date | Date | Member | Party | |||||
| Braddon | Miriam Beswick | Jacqui Lambie Network | Expulsion | 24 August 2024 | Miriam Beswick | Independent | |||||
| Bass | Rebekah Pentland | Jacqui Lambie Network | Expulsion | 24 August 2024 | Rebekah Pentland | Independent | |||||
| Date | Firm | Political parties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| class=unsortable style=background:#10C25B | class=unsortable style=background:#F7CD47 | class=unsortable style=background:lightgray | |||||
| 5-14 November 2024 | EMRS[10] | style=background:#bbeafa | 35% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 14% |
| 2-11 October 2024 | EMRS[11] | 28% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 1% | |
| 14-21 August 2024 | EMRS | style=background:#bbeafa | 36% | 27% | 14% | 8% | 15% |
| August 2024 | Wolf & Smith[12] [13] | 32% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 20% | |
| 16-23 May 2024 | EMRS[14] | style=background:#bbeafa | 35% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 15% |
| 23 March 2024 | 2024 Election | 36.7% | 29% | 13.9% | 6.7% | 13.75 | |
| Date | Firm | Party leaders | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockliff | Winter | Unsure | ||||||
| 5–14 November 2024 | EMRS | 43% | 37% | 19% | ||||
| 14–21 August 2024 | EMRS | 45% | 30% | 25% | ||||
| 16–23 May 2021 | EMRS | 40% | 32% | 26% | ||||