2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election explained

The 2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election was held on 8 May 2022 to elect the 20th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Minister-President Daniel Günther.

The CDU won in a landslide, claiming 43% of the vote with a swing of over eleven percentage points and falling one seat short of an absolute majority in the Landtag. It is their best result since Uwe Barschel's 49 % showing in the 1983 state election. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered major losses and fell to third place with 16% of votes, its worst ever result in the state, while the Greens became the second-largest party with 18%. The FDP also declined to 6% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell below the 5% electoral threshold, losing representation in a state parliament for the first time. The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which represents the Danish and Frisian minorities in Schleswig-Holstein, won 6%, their best result since the first post-war state election in 1947.^[1]

The CDU's victory was attributed to the personal popularity of Minister-President Günther, as well as the federal government's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, for which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been criticised.^[1] In the lead-up to the election, Günther was the most popular Minister-President in Germany with an approval rating of 76%,^[2] and was preferred Minister-President even among opposition voters.^[3]

After the election, the CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President on 29 June.^[4]

Election date

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. The election must be held in or before June 2022.^[5]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 35 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 34 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 69 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold, and fail to win at least one constituency, are ineligible to receive seats. Parties representing the Danish minority of Southern Schleswig and the Frisians, such as the South Schleswig Voters' Association, are exempt from the threshold.^[6]

Background

See main article: article and 2017 Schleswig-Holstein state election. In the previous election held on 7 May 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 32.0% of votes cast, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The SPD lost three points and placed second with 27.3% of votes. The Greens won 12.9% (–0.3pp), the FDP won 11.5% (+3.3pp), and the SSW won 3.3% (–1.3pp). The AfD contested its first election in Schleswig-Holstein, winning 5.9%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens and SSW since 2012, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the Greens and FDP, and Daniel Günther became Minister-President.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 19th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.

Name	Ideology	Leader(s)	Leading candidate	2017 result
Votes (%)				Seats
bgcolor=		CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany	Christian democracy			32.0%
bgcolor=		SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany	Social democracy	Serpil Midyatli	Thomas Losse-Müller	27.3%
bgcolor=		Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens	Green politics	Ann-Kathrin Tranziska Steffen Regis	Monika Heinold	12.9%
bgcolor=		FDP	Free Democratic Party	Classical liberalism	Heiner Garg	Bernd Buchholz	11.5%
bgcolor=		AfD	Alternative for Germany	Right-wing populism	Vacant	Jörg Nobis	5.9%
bgcolor=		SSW	South Schleswig Voter Federation	Danish and Frisian minority interests	Flemming Meyer	Lars Harms	3.3%

Opinion polling

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	SSW	FW	Others	Lead
2022 state election	data-sort-value="2022-05-08"	8 May 2022	–		43.4	16.0	18.3	6.4	4.4	1.7	5.7	0.6	3.5	25.1
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-05-06"	4–6 May 2022	918		39	17.5	17.5	7	5.5	2	5.5	–	6	21.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	data-sort-value="2022-05-05"	2–5 May 2022	1,704		38	18	18	8	6	–	6	–	6	20
INSA	data-sort-value="2022-05-02"	25 Apr–2 May 2022	1,000		36	20	16	9	6	3	5	–	5	16
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-04-29"	25–29 Apr 2022	913		39	18.5	17.5	7	5	2	5	–	6	20.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	data-sort-value="2022-04-28"	25–28 Apr 2022	1,011		38	19	17	7	6	3	5	–	5	19
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2022-04-27"	25–27 Apr 2022	1,530		38	19	16	9	5	–	5	–	8	19
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-04-23"	16–23 Apr 2022	920		39.5	21	16	7	4.5	2	4	–	6	18.5
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2022-04-19"	13–19 Apr 2022	1,172		38	20	16	9	6	–	4	–	7	18
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-04-02"	23 Mar–2 Apr 2022	950		37	22	17	6.5	4.5	2	4	–	7	15
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2022-03-29"	24–29 Mar 2022	1,158		36	20	18	8	6	–	4	–	8	16
INSA	data-sort-value="2022-03-28"	21–28 Mar 2022	1,008		28	27	16	11	6	3	4	2	3	1
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-03-11"	3–11 Mar 2022	1,020		35	19.5	19.5	9	5	2.5	5	–	4.5	15.5
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2022-03-08"	3–8 Mar 2022	1,168		33	20	20	9	6	3	4	–	5	13
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-02-19"	10–19 Feb 2022	2,000		30	25	17	9	6	3	5	–	5	5
INSA	data-sort-value="2022-01-31"	24–31 Jan 2022	1,003	25		28	15	12	7	4	3	3	3	3
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2022-01-19"	19–27 Jan 2022	1,390		31	25	17	8	6	2	5.5	–	5.5	6
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2022-01-18"	13–18 Jan 2022	1,167		28	23	20	10	7	3	4	–	5	5
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2021-12-13"	1–13 Dec 2021	1,030	24		29	20	12.5	4	2	4.5	–	4	5
INSA	data-sort-value="2021-11-22"	15–22 Nov 2021	1,001	21		28	18	14	7	4	3	2	3	7
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2021-10-24"	14–24 Oct 2021	945	23		29	22	14	3	2	4	–	3	6
2021 federal election	data-sort-value="2021-09-26"	26 Sep 2021	–	22.0		28.0	18.3	12.5	6.8	3.6	3.2	1.0	4.6	6.0
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2021-05-28"	21–26 May 2021	1,220		28	15	27	11	6	4	3	–	6	1
INSA	data-sort-value="2021-05-19"	10–17 May 2021	1,000	25	21		27	11	6	3	3	2	2	2
Wahlkreisprognose	data-sort-value="2021-03-30"	21–30 Mar 2021	–	28	19		29	11	3	3	3.5	–	3.5	1
INSA	data-sort-value="2020-11-25"	16–23 Nov 2020	1,002		33	20	24	8	6	3	3	–	3	9
INSA	data-sort-value="2020-01-28"	13–20 Jan 2020	1,000		28	20	26	9	7	3	3	–	4	2
2019 European election	data-sort-value="2019-05-26"	26 May 2019	–	26.2	17.1		29.1	5.9	7.4	3.7	–	0.9	9.7	2.9
INSA	data-sort-value="2019-02-08"	28 Jan–4 Feb 2019	1,002		30	20	22	9	7	5	3	1	3	8
Infratest dimap	data-sort-value="2018-04-20"	12–18 Apr 2018	1,002		34	22	18	8	6	6	3	–	3	12
2017 federal election	data-sort-value="2017-09-24"	24 Sep 2017	–		34.0	23.3	12.0	12.6	8.2	7.3	–	0.6	1.9	10.7
2017 state election	data-sort-value="2017-05-07"	7 May 2017	–		32.0	27.3	12.9	11.5	5.9	3.8	3.3	0.6	1.7	4.7

Results

align=center colspan=10
Party	Constituency			List			Total seats	+/–
Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Swing
bgcolor=		Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)	577,506	41.9	32	601,964	43.4	11.4	34	9
bgcolor=		Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	260,122	18.9	3	254,158	18.3	5.4	14	4
bgcolor=		Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)	284,373	20.6	0	221,496	16.0	11.3	12	9
bgcolor=		Free Democratic Party (FDP)	84,520	6.1	0	88,593	6.4	5.1	5	4
bgcolor=		South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW)	48,551	3.5	0	79,301	5.7	2.4	4	1
bgcolor=		Alternative for Germany (AfD)	62,413	4.5	0	61,141	4.4	1.5	0	5
bgcolor=		The Left (DIE LINKE)	29,739	2.2	0	23,054	1.7	2.1	0	±0
bgcolor=		Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis)	9,684	0.7	0	15,400	1.1	New	0	New
bgcolor=		Die PARTEI	3,096	0.2	0	10,292	0.7	0.2	0	±0
bgcolor=		Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei)	–	–	–	10,227	0.7	New	0	New
bgcolor=		Free Voters (FW)	13,803	1.0	0	8,190	0.6	0.0	0	±0
bgcolor=		Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	–	–	–	4,753	0.3	0.8	0	±0
bgcolor=		Volt Germany (Volt)	1,896	0.1	0	4,215	0.3	New	0	New
	Future (Z.)	442	0.0	0	1,692	0.1	0.2	0	±0
bgcolor=		The Humanists (Die Humanisten)	302	0.0	0	1,603	0.1	New	0	New
bgcolor=		Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung)	–	–	–	1,319	0.1	New	0	New
bgcolor=		Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR)	368	0.0	0	–	–	0.2	0	±0
bgcolor=		Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE)	227	0.0	0	–	–	0.6	0	±0
bgcolor=		Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)	154	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	New
bgcolor=		Independents	1,656	0.1	0	–	–	–	0	±0
Valid		1,378,852	98.7		1,387,398	99.3
Invalid	17,895	1.3		9,349	0.7
Total		1,396,747	100.0	35	1,396,747	100.0		69	–4
Registered voters/turnout	2,314,417	60.4		2,314,417	60.4	3.8
Source: State Returning Officer

Voter demographics and analysis

Sociology of the electorate
Demographic		CDU	Grüne	SPD	FDP	SSW	AfD	Linke	Others
Total vote		43%	18%	16%	6.5%	6%	4.5%	2%	4%
Sex
Men		42%	16%	16%	8%	6%	6%	2%	4%
Women		44%	20%	16%	5%	6%	3%	2%	4%
Age
16–24 years old		23%	26%	13%	12%	8%	4%	5%	9%
25–34 years old		30%	22%	15%	8%	7%	7%	3%	8%
35–44 years old		38%	20%	14%	7%	6%	6%	2%	7%
45–59 years old		45%	19%	14%	6%	6%	5%	1%	4%
60–69 years old		47%	18%	18%	5%	5%	3%	1%	3%
70 or older		55%	12%	20%	5%	4%	2%	1%	1%
Education
Low		50%	7%	22%	5%	6%	6%	1%	3%
High		35%	27%	14%	7%	5%	4%	2%	6%
Socio-occupational classification
Blue-collar worker		39%	12%	14%	6%	7%	15%	7%
White-collar worker		40%	21%	15%	7%	6%	4%	8%
Self-employed		47%	19%	9%	10%	6%	4%	5%
Retired		52%	14%	20%	5%	5%	2%	2%
Agglomeration
Rural commune		47%	16%	14%	7%	7%	4%	5%
Small town		46%	16%	17%	6%	4%	5%	6%
Medium-sized town		39%	20%	17%	6%	6%	5%	7%
Large town		33%	27%	19%	6%	5%	3%	7%
Source: Infratest dimap[7] [8] [9]

Government formation

The CDU fell just one seat short of a majority in the Landtag and could form a coalition with any of the other parties. After the election, Minister-President Günther stated his intention to seek a renewal of the incumbent Jamaica coalition with both the Greens and FDP.^[10] On 19 May, he announced that exploratory talks had failed because neither of the smaller parties desired to continue a three-party coalition when only two parties were necessary for a majority.^[11] Four days later, the CDU extended an invitation to the Greens for coalition talks, which was accepted.^{[12] [13]} As negotiations proceeded in early June, the two parties emphasised their mutual commitment to climate protection and social justice, and a rapid transition to renewable energy and climate neutrality. Agreement was also found in policy areas such as digitalisation and education, while they disagreed on security, agriculture, transport, and housing.^{[14] [15]}

On 22 June, the CDU and Greens announced that they had finalised a coalition agreement. In the new cabinet, the number of ministers was increased by one as the agriculture portfolio will be split from that of environment and energy. The health ministry was also transferred from the social affairs ministry to the justice ministry. Five ministers – economy, justice, education, interior, and agriculture – were allocated to the CDU and three to the Greens. Among them, Monika Heinold remained Deputy Minister-President and finance minister, while Tobias Goldschmidt became environment minister and Aminata Touré minister for social affairs.^[16] The agreement was approved overwhelmingly by both parties' congresses on 27 June, with the Greens recording four dissenting votes and the CDU none.^[17]

Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 29 June, winning 47 votes out of 66 cast, including four abstentions.^[4]

Notes and References

1. Web site: Germany: CDU set to win Schleswig-Holstein state election. 8 May 2022. Deutsche Welle.
2. Web site: Landtagswahl am 8. Mai: CDU in Umfrage vor SPD und Grünen . .
3. Web site: NDR Umfrage in SH: CDU vor SPD und Grünen - Abstand wächst .
4. Web site: Daniel Günther is the old and new Prime Minister of SH. 29 June 2022. de. Norddeutscher Rundfunk.
5. Web site: The 19th Landtag. 12 May 2021. Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. 5 December 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201205031304/https://www.landtag.ltsh.de/parlament/der-19-lt/. dead.
6. Web site: Elections. 12 May 2021. Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.
7. Web site: Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Jüngere und Ältere?. Tagesschau.de. de. 8 May 2022. 9 May 2022.
8. Web site: Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wer wählte was?. tagesschau.de. de. 8 May 2022. 9 May 2022.
9. Web site: Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Angestellte und Arbeitende?. Tagesschau.de. de. 8 May 2022. 9 May 2022.
10. Web site: Günther wants to continue Jamaica. 11 May 2022. de. Der Spiegel.
11. Web site: Talks on renewal of the Jamaican government have collapsed. 19 May 2022. de. Die Zeit.
12. Web site: CDU wants to hold coalition talks with the Greens. 23 May 2022. de. Tagesspiegel.
13. Web site: CDU and Greens agree on timetable for government formation in SH. 25 May 2022. de. Norddeutscher Rundfunk.
14. Web site: Government formation in SH: coalition agreement should be in two weeks. 8 June 2022. de. Norddeutscher Rundfunk.
15. Web site: CDU und Grüne beraten weiter über gemeinsame Koalition. 15 June 2022. de. N-tv.
16. Web site: Black-Green coalition is set in Schleswig-Holstein. 22 June 2022. de. Norddeutscher Rundfunk.
17. Web site: CDU and Greens agree to coalition agreement. 27 June 2022. de. Der Spiegel.