Next Japanese general election explained

Country:Japan
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2024 Japanese general election
Previous Year:2024
Election Date:By 27 October 2028
Elected Mps:Representatives elected in the 2024 Japanese general election-->
Seats For Election:All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
Majority Seats:233
1Blank:Constituency vote
2Blank:% and swing
3Blank:Regional vote
4Blank:% and swing
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election
Leader1:Shigeru Ishiba
Party1:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
Leaders Seat1:Tottori 1st
Leader Since1:27 September 2024
Last Election1:191 seats
Seats Needed1:42
Seats Before1:191
Leader2:Yoshihiko Noda
Party2:Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan
Leaders Seat2:Chiba 14th
Leader Since2:23 September 2024
Last Election2:148 seats
Seats Needed2:85
Seats Before2:148
Leader3:Hirofumi Yoshimura
Seiji Maehara
Party3:Nippon Ishin no Kai
Leaders Seat3:N/A
Kyoto 2nd
Leader Since3:1 December 2024
Last Election3:38 seats
Seats Needed3:195
Seats Before3:38
Leader4:Motohisa Furukawa
(Interim)
Party4:Democratic Party For the People
Leaders Seat4:Aichi 2nd
Leader Since4:4 December 2024
Last Election4:28 seats
Seats Needed4:205
Seats Before4:28
Leader5:Tetsuo Saito
Party5:Komeito
Leaders Seat5:Hiroshima 3rd
Leader Since5:9 November 2024
Last Election5:24 seats
Seats Needed5:209
Seats Before5:24
Leader6:Tarō Yamamoto
Party6:Reiwa Shinsengumi
Leaders Seat6:Did not stand
Leader Since6:1 April 2019
Last Election6:9 seats
Seats Needed6:234
Seats Before6:9
Leader7:Tomoko Tamura
Party7:Japanese Communist Party
Leader Since7:18 January 2024
Leaders Seat7:Tokyo PR block
Last Election7:8 seats
Seats Needed7:225
Seats Before7:8
Leader8:Sohei Kamiya
Leaders Seat8:Did not stand
Leader Since8:30 August 2023
Party8:Sanseitō
Last Election8:3 seats
Seats Needed8:230
Seats Before8:3
Leader9:Naoki Hyakuta
Party9:Conservative Party of Japan
Leaders Seat9:N/A
Leader Since9:1 September 2023
Last Election9:3 seats
Seats Needed9:230
Seats Before9:3
Prime Minister
Before Party:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)

The 51st general election of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 176 proportional blocks.[1]

The 2024 general election resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the Prime Minister dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the House of Representatives passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the House of Representatives.

Background

The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.[2]

The election will likely take place after:

Electoral system

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Opinion polling

See main article: Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election.

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 選挙の種類. 総務省.
  2. News: Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM. Kyodo News. 2024-10-28.