2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election explained

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.^[1]

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).^[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Lynch, incumbent Governor^[4]
• Timothy Robertson, state representative
• Frank Sullivan

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
• Jack Kimball, businessman^[5]
• John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner^[6]
• Karen Testerman, conservative activist^[5]

Declined

• Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General^[7]
• Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester^[8]
• Chuck Morse, former State Senator^[9]
• John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jack Kimball	John Stephen	Karen Testerman
Public Policy Polling[10]	September 11–12, 2010	24%	align=center	45%	8%
Public Policy Polling[11]	July 23–25, 2010	15%	align=center	26%	5%
Public Policy Polling[12]	April 17–18, 2010	10%	align=center	29%	15%

Results

General election

Candidates

• John Babiarz, Libertarian
• John Lynch, Democratic
• John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[13]		October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[14]		October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[15]		November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]		October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[17]		October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	John Lynch (D)	John Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports[18]	October 27, 2010	align=center	51%	45%
WMUR/UNH[19]	October 7–12, 2010	align=center	51%	38%
American Research Group[20]	October 3–5, 2010	align=center	51%	41%
Granite State Poll[21]	October 1, 2010	align=center	51%	34%
American Research Group	September 22–26, 2010	align=center	42%	40%
Rasmussen Reports[22]	September 15, 2010	align=center	48%	46%
Public Policy Polling[23]	September 11–12, 2010	align=center	51%	39%
Rasmussen Reports[24]	August 5, 2010	align=center	50%	39%
Public Policy Polling[25]	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	51%	34%
Rasmussen Reports[26]	May 26, 2010	align=center	47%	35%
Public Policy Polling[27]	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	36%
Rasmussen Reports[28]	April 7, 2010	align=center	47%	37%
Rasmussen Reports[29]	March 8, 2010	align=center	50%	35%
Granite State Poll[30]	January 27-February 3, 2010	align=center	50%	30%

With Kimball

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Jack Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	52%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	align=center	50%	31%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	align=center	50%	34%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Research 2000[31]	February 1–3, 2010	align=center	59%	13%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	January 12, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Rasmussen Reports[33]	September 14, 2009	align=center	52%	31%

With Morse

width='140'	Poll Source	width='180'	Dates Administered	width='100'	John Lynch (D)	width='100'	Chuck Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	align=center	51%	29%

With Sununu

width='140'	Poll Source	width='180'	Dates Administered	width='100'	John Lynch (D)	width='100'	John Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll[34]	September 25-October 2, 2009	align=center	50%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	align=center	48%	43%

With Testerman

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Karen Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	52%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	align=center	50%	33%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	align=center	54%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	January 12, 2010	align=center	53%	30%

Results

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

• Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

External links

• Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
• New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
• New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign sites (Archived)

• John Lynch for Governor
• John Stephen for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports . FOX44NOW.COM . August 21, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120301045713/http://www.fox44now.com/Global/story.asp?S=12327303&nav=menu660_2 . March 1, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
2. Web site: Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H. . Public Policy Polling . April 23, 2010.
3. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf
4. Web site: Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA . Eagletribune.com . April 18, 2010 . August 21, 2010 .
5. Web site: Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race . The Union Leader . December 9, 2009 . January 1, 2010 . John Distaso . https://web.archive.org/web/20100220053458/http://www.theunionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Testerman+steps+into+the+ring+in+governor%27s+race&articleId=713cdc3a-58b4-4590-8739-b16947c67672 . February 20, 2010 . dead .
6. Web site: John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire . Johnstephen.com . August 21, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080915212618/http://www.johnstephen.com/ . September 15, 2008 . mdy-all .
7. Web site: Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard . Politico.Com . 2010-08-21.
8. Web site: Frank Guinta for Congress . Teamguinta.com . 2010-07-29 . 2010-08-21.
9. Web site: Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA . May 27, 2010 . Eagletribune.com . 2010-08-21.
10. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_912907.pdf Public Policy Polling
11. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_728.pdf Public Policy Polling
12. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_421.pdf Public Policy Polling
13. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
14. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
15. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
16. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
17. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .
18. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/election_2010_new_hampshire_governor Rasmussen Reports
19. https://web.archive.org/web/20101105043035/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2010_gov101810.pdf WMUR/UNH
20. http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhgov10/ American Research Group
21. https://web.archive.org/web/20111208132212/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_fall_govapp100110.pdf Granite State Poll
22. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_new_hampshire_governor_september_15_2010 Rasmussen Reports
23. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf Public Policy Polling
24. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_2010_new_hampshire_governor_august_5_2010 Rasmussen Reports
25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_729.pdf Public Policy Polling
26. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/election_2010_new_hampshire_governor/ Rasmussen Reports
27. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_423.pdf Public Policy Polling
28. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_2010_new_hampshire_governor_april_7_2010 Rasmussen Reports
29. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_2010_new_hampshire_governor_march_8_2010 Rasmussen Reports
30. https://web.archive.org/web/20100215175443/http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_govapp20910.pdf Granite State Poll
31. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/23/NH/440 Research 2000
32. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_2010_new_hampshire_governor_january_12_2010 Rasmussen Reports
33. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_2010_new_hampshire_governor_september_14_2009/ Rasmussen Reports
34. http://lcvonlinenews.blogspot.com/2009/10/governor-new-hampshire-2010.html Granite State Poll