2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election explained

The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term.^[3]

Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.^[4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

• Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor^[5]

Withdrew

• Grace Ross, 2006 Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor^{[6] [7]}

Polling

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

• Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

• Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and former Secretary of Administration and Finance^{[9] [10] [11]}

Eliminated at convention

• Christy Mihos, independent candidate for governor in 2006^{[12] [13]}

Declined

• Kerry Healey, former Lieutenant Governor and nominee in 2006^[14]
• Bob Hedlund, State Senator from Weymouth^[15]
• Joe Malone, former State Treasurer ^[16] (ran for U.S. Representative)
• Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts^{[17] [18]}

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Charlie Baker	Christy Mihos
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	July 15–21, 2009		27%	20%
Suffolk University[20]	November 4–8, 2009	30%		33%
Suffolk University	February 21–24, 2010		47%	17%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

• Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate

General election

Candidates

• Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care^{[9] [10] [11]} (Republican)

• Running mate: Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate
• Tim Cahill, State Treasurer and Receiver-General^[21] (Independent)

• Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative
• Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor^[5] (Democratic)

• Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
• Jill Stein, medical internist and co-chairperson of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party^[22] (Green-Rainbow)

• Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor^[23]

Campaign

Defection of Loscocco

On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker.^[2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however.^[24] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection. Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises.^[25] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort.^[26]

Lottery ad

Soon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations.^[27] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people."^[28]

On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor.^[29] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy.^[30]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[31]		October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[32]		October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[33]		November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34]		October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[35]		October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll	Date	Deval Patrick (D)	Charlie Baker (R)	Tim Cahill (I)	Jill Stein (GR)
Rasmussen Reports[36]	June 24, 2009		41%	36%	–	–
The Boston Globe/UNH	July 15–21, 2009		30%	20%		30%	–
		35%		41%	–	–
Rasmussen Reports[37]	October 22, 2009		34%	24%	23%	–
Suffolk University[38]	November 4–8, 2009		38%	15%	26%	–
Rasmussen Reports	November 23, 2009		33%	28%	25%	–
The Boston Globe/UNH	January 2–6, 2010		30%	19%	23%	–
Public Policy Polling[39]	January 7–9, 2010		29%	27%	21%	–
Suffolk University	February 21–24, 2010		33%	25%	23%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010		35%	32%	19%	–
Rasmussen Reports	April 5, 2010		35%	27%	23%	–
April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated
Rasmussen Reports	May 10, 2010		45%	31%	14%	1%
Suffolk University[40]	May 25, 2010		42%	29%	14%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[41]	June 21, 2010		41%	34%	16%	–
The Boston Globe/UNH[42]	June 17–23, 2010		38%	31%	9%	2%
Rasmussen Reports[43]	July 22, 2010		38%	32%	17%	–
Statehouse News[44]	August 29–31, 2010		34%	28%	18%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	September 1, 2010		39%	34%	18%	–
Rasmussen Reports	September 17, 2010		45%	42%	5%	–
Suffolk University /7 News[45]	September 16–19, 2010		41%	34%	14%	4%
The Boston Globe/UNH[46]	September 17–22, 2010		35%	34%	11%	4%
Western New England College[47]	September 19–23, 2010		39%	33%	16%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	September 30, 2010		47%	42%	6%	–
Suffolk University 7 News[48]	October 10–12, 2010		46%	39%	10%	1%
Public Opinion Strategies[49]	October 11–13, 2010	35%		42%	10%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	October 18, 2010		47%	42%	6%	–
Western New England College[50]	October 22, 2010		44%	36%	8%	5%
Boston Globe[51]	October 24, 2010		43%	39%	8%	2%
Suffolk University/7News[52]	October 25–27, 2010		46%	39%	9%	2%
Rasmussen Reports[53]	October 27, 2010		46%	44%	6%	—
Western New England College[54]	October 24–28, 2010		42%	37%	11%	3%
Results (for comparison)	[November 2, 2010]		[48.4% ]	[42.0% ]	[8.0% ]	[1.4% ]

with Christy Mihos

Poll source	Dates administered	Deval Patrick	Christy Mihos	Jill Stein	Tim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports	June 24, 2009	40%		41%	––	––
The Boston Globe/UNH	July 15–21, 2009		31%	18%	––		31%
		40%		41%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports[55]	August 20, 2009	35%		40%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports	October 22, 2009		34%	23%	––	23%
Suffolk University[56]	November 4–8, 2009		36%	20%	––	26%
Rasmussen Reports	November 23, 2009		32%	26%	––	28%
The Boston Globe/UNH	January 2–6, 2010		32%	19%	––	23%
Public Policy Polling	January 7–9, 2010		28%	21%	––	25%
Suffolk University	February 21–24, 2010		34%	19%	3%	26%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010		34%	19%	––	30%
Rasmussen Reports	April 5, 2010		38%	15%	––	33%

with Grace Ross

Fundraising

As of October 31, 2010.^[57] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.

Candidate (Party)	Raised	Spent	Balance
	Tim Cahill (I)	align=right	$570,345.01	align=right	$277,655.73	align=right	$292,689.28
	Charlie Baker (R)	align=right	$736,877.30	align=right	$491,089.99	align=right	$245,787.31
	Deval Patrick (D)	align=right	$606,991.19	align=right	$459,858.16	align=right	$147,133.03
	Jill Stein (G)	align=right	$64,454.75	align=right	$22,068.50	align=right	$42,386.25

Results by county

2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [58]
County	Patrick %	Patrick #	Baker %	Baker #	Others %	Others #	Total #
		43.8%	47,124	47.0%	50,609	9.2%	9,876	107,609
		70.3%	30,269	21.5%	9,266	8.2%	3,527	43,062
		46.3%	81,059	41.8%	73,220	11.8%	20,724	175,003
		57.6%	4,908	32.3%	2,757	10.1%	862	8,527
		43.2%	116,360	47.5%	127,964	9.3%	25,148	269,472
		60.8%	17,068	24.4%	6,838	14.9%	4,170	28,076
		45.4%	62,816	39.5%	54,653	15.1%	20,857	138,326
		58.4%	33,317	28.0%	15,994	13.6%	7,752	57,063
		50.8%	283,221	40.6%	226,272	8.7%	48,481	557,974
		50.7%	2,454	38.2%	1,846	11.1%	538	4,838
		43.80%	119,806	43.81%	119,850	12.4%	33,882	273,538
		38.3%	74,355	49.8%	96,592	11.9%	23,105	194,052
		67.0%	125,961	24.9%	46,822	8.1%	15,292	188,075
		41.4%	113,565	48.2%	132,183	10.4%	28,440	274,188

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
• Essex (largest municipality: Lynn)
• Norfolk (largest municipality: Quincy)
• Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
• Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)

See also

• 2009–2010 Massachusetts legislature
• 2010 United States gubernatorial elections

External links

• Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth – Elections Division
• Massachusetts Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Massachusetts Governor from Follow the Money
• Massachusetts Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• News: 2010 Massachusetts Gubernatorial General Election: Charlie Baker (R) vs Deval Patrick (D) vs Tim Cahill (i) . The Huffington Post . October 24, 2010 . Emily . Swanson . June 15, 2010. (graph of multiple polls)
• Election 2010: Massachusetts Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Massachusetts Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Massachusetts Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

• Web site: Massachusetts Gubernatorial Debate . . September 24, 2010.
• Web site: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Debate . . October 21, 2010 . October 27, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110820180030/http://massachusetts.onpolitix.com/news/16806/video-gubernatorial-debate-on-22news . August 20, 2011 . dead . mdy-all .
• Web site: Final Mass. Governor's Debate . BostonChannel . October 25, 2010 . October 27, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101029013822/http://electionwire.wbur.org/2010/10/25/final-governors-debate . October 29, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .

Campaign

• Charlie Baker for Governor
• Tim Cahill for Governor
• Deval Patrick for Governor
• Jill Stein for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Our Campaigns - MA Governor Race - Nov 02, 2010. www.ourcampaigns.com. February 11, 2024.
2. Loscocco declared he would drop out and endorse the Republican ticket. However, there was no way to drop out by that time, so he remained on the ballot.News: 'I won't give in,' Cahill declares as he vows to stay in race . October 1, 2010 . . October 5, 2010 . Noah . Bierman . Michael . Levenson . John R. . Ellement.
3. News: Patrick roars to 2d term . . November 3, 2010 . November 3, 2010 . Frank . Phillips . Michael . Levenson.
4. News: Massachusetts primary election 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121008064159/http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/09/massachusetts-primary-election.html . dead . October 8, 2012 . September 14, 2010 . November 15, 2010. The Washington Post.
5. News: Chabot . Hillary . Deval: I will run again . . April 2, 2009 . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090403222612/http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/2009_04_02_Deval:_I_will_run_again/ . April 3, 2009 . dead . mdy-all .
6. News: Always on the run: Despite lack of funds, mounting string of losses, quixotic politicians carry on for their causes . Stephanie . Ebbert . June 2, 2010 . June 2, 2010 . .
7. News: Ross launches Patrick primary challenge . Alexander Burns . Politico . February 5, 2010.
8. http://www.suffolk.edu/40657.html Suffolk University
9. News: Hillary Chabot, Christine McConville & Jessica Van Sack . Charles D. Baker leaving Harvard Pilgrim to run for governor . . July 8, 2009 . January 25, 2010.
10. Web site: Baker a favorite for 2010 among Massachusetts delegates . Politicker.com .
11. Web site: Charlie Baker 2010 Governor . Draftcharlie.com . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100301154310/http://www.draftcharlie.com/ . March 1, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
12. News: Mihos plans another run for governor . Matt Collette . . April 27, 2009 . January 25, 2010.
13. News: GOP throws full support behind Charlie Baker for governor . Boston Herald . April 23, 2010.
14. Web site: Shore . South . Profile of Potential Candidates: Kerry Healey . Red Mass Group . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090821235219/http://www.redmassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3745 . August 21, 2009 . dead . mdy-all .
15. Web site: Shore . South . Profile of Potential Candidates: Bob Hedlund . Red Mass Group . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100128011027/http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/4115/profile-of-potential-candidates-bob-hedlund . January 28, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
16. Web site: Shore won . South . Profile of Potential Candidates: Joe Malone . Red Mass Group . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090424074947/http://www.redmassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4037 . April 24, 2009 . dead . mdy-all .
17. Web site: Draft Mike Sullivan for Governor . Draftsullivan.com . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090313235420/http://draftsullivan.com/ . March 13, 2009 . dead . mdy-all .
18. Web site: Shore . South . Profile of Potential Candidates: Michael Sullivan . Red Mass Group . January 25, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090810203756/http://www.redmassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3282 . August 10, 2009 . dead . mdy-all .
19. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/specials/072609_poll/ The Boston Globe/UNH
20. http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.SUPRC.Marginals.Nov.8.2009.pdf Suffolk University
21. Web site: Tim for Governor . 2010-09-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100305184707/http://www.timforgovernor.com/ . 2010-03-05 . dead .
22. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100107stein_to_jump_into_gov_race_with_green-rainbow_bid Stein to jump into gov race with Green-Rainbow bid
23. Web site: Gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein of Green-Rainbow Party, introduces lieutenant governor candidate Richard P. Purcell, of Holyoke . . April 3, 2010.
24. Web site: 2010 State Election Candidates . Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division . October 5, 2010.
25. News: Cahill files lawsuit alleging dirty political tricks in Mass . The Boston Globe . Frank . Phillips . October 7, 2010.
26. News: Campaign crossfire hotter still. Stephanie Ebbert and Michael Levenson . . October 9, 2010 . January 5, 2012.
27. News: Johnson. Glen. Mass. Lottery chief: No ad collusion with Cahill. 3 April 2012. The Boston Globe. October 8, 2010.
28. News: E-mails appear to link Mass. candidate, lottery ad. https://web.archive.org/web/20150315000743/http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9IRFL8O0.htm. dead. March 15, 2015. 3 April 2012. The Associated Press. October 14, 2010. Denise Lavoie. Glen Johnson.
29. News: Phillips. Frank. Timothy Cahill indicted on charges of using official funds for campaign-boosting ads. 2 April 2012. The Boston Globe. April 2, 2012.
30. News: Cassidy. Chris. Tim Cahill 'thrilled' that mistrial declared. December 12, 2012. Boston Herald. December 12, 2012.
31. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
32. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
33. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
34. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
35. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .
36. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/2010_massachusetts_governor_democrat_patrick_loses_ground Rasmussen Reports
37. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_governor Rasmussen Reports
38. http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.SUPRC.Marginals.Nov.8.2009.pdf Suffolk University
39. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_112.pdf Public Policy Polling
40. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/05/26/patrick_keeps_lead_in_new_poll_on_gubernatorial_race/ Suffolk University
41. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_governor_june_21_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
42. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/06/27/patrick_leads_but_baker_surging/ The Boston Globe/UNH
43. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_governor Rasmussen Reports
44. https://web.archive.org/web/20080715153808/http://www.statehousenews.com/th013030.htm Statehouse News
45. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100920poll_voters_clueless_about_charlie_baker/srvc=home&position=0 Suffolk University / 7 News
46. http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/09/26/new_poll_shows_baker_patrick_running_even The Boston Globe/UNH
47. http://assets.wnec.edu/112/Polling_-_MA_Governor_TABLES_%28Sept_2010%29.pdf Western New England College
48. http://suffolk.edu/research/44142.html Suffolk University 7 News
49. http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/10/bakers_pollster.html Public Opinion Strategies
50. https://web.archive.org/web/20110104071833/http://www1.wnec.edu/news/index.cfm?selection=doc.2507&DCIid=13969 Western New England College
51. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/articles/2010/10/24/patrick_opens_narrow_lead_poll_suggests/ Boston Globe
52. http://www.suffolk.edu/44312.html Suffolk University/7News
53. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/questions/questions_massachusetts_governor_october_28_2010 Rasmussen Reports
54. https://web.archive.org/web/20110104070324/http://www1.wnec.edu/news/index.cfm?selection=doc.2507&DCIid=13980 Western New England College
55. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/massachusetts/toplines_election_2010_massachusettes_governor_august_10_2009 Rasmussen Reports
56. http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.SUPRC.Marginals.Nov.8.2009.pdf Suffolk University
57. Source: Web site: OCPF Searchable Campaign Finance Database & Electronic Filing System . Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance . November 1, 2010 . November 15, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100726220851/http://www.efs.cpf.state.ma.us/ . July 26, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
58. Web site: PD43+ » Search Elections. PD43+. February 11, 2024.