Lies, damned lies, and statistics explained

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.[1] However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself.

History

Mark Twain popularized the saying in Chapters from My Autobiography, published in the North American Review in 1907. "Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"[2] [1]

Alternative attributions include, among many others (for example Walter Bagehot and Arthur James Balfour), the radical English journalist and politician Henry Du Pré Labouchère (1831–1912), Jervoise Athelstane Baines,[3] and British politician and scholar Leonard H. Courtney, who used the phrase in 1895 and two years later became president of the Royal Statistical Society. Courtney is quoted by as attributing the phrase to a "wise statesman",[4] but he may have been referring to a future statesman rather than a past one.[5] The phrase has also been attributed to Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington.[6] [7]

The phrase is quoted frequently in 1895, but here is a 1894 example: "His less enthusiastic neighbor thinks of the proverbial kinds of falsehoods, “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” and replies: “Reports of large numbers of cases subjected to operation seldom fail to beget a suspicion of unjustifiable risk.”"[8] [9]

A Dictionary of English Folklore claims that the earliest instance resembling the phrase found in print is a letter written in the British newspaper National Observer on June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891, p. 93(–94):NATIONAL PENSIONS[To the Editor of The National Observer]London, 8 June 1891"Sir, —It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds offalsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and mostaggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statisticsthat the advocate of national pensions relies ..." Later, in October 1891, as a query in Notes and Queries, the pseudonymous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date. The pseudonym has been attributed to Eliza Gutch.[10]

The American Dialect Society list archives include numerous posts by Stephen Goranson that cite research into uses soon after the above.They include:

"Sir Charles Dilke [1843–1911] was saying the other day that false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics." The Bristol Mercury and Daily Post, Monday, October 19, 1891

The Derby Mercury (Derby, England), October 21, 1891; Issue 9223 "Sir Charles Dilke and the Bishops" "A mass meeting of the slate quarry-men of Festiniog [Ffestiniog, Wales] was held Wednesday night [Oct. 14] to protest against certain dismissals from one of the quarries ...." He [Dilke] observed that the speeches of the Bishops on the disestablishment question reminded him that there were three degrees of untruth—a fib, a lie, and statistics (Laughter)"

Colin White traces the origins to François Magendie (1783–1855). According to White, while arguing against using blood-letting to treat fever and confronted with statistical numbers he believed to be manufactured, this French physiologist stated: "Thus the alteration of the truth which is already manifesting itself in the progressive form of lying and perjury, offers us, in the superlative, the statistics." In White's opinion, the world had a need of this phrase, many people "would have been proud" to coin it, and the origins are now obscured, as the phrase passed "from wit to wit". White is referring to the work of Paul Delaunay, however, Delaunay's text, while using the phrase, does not explicitly attribute it to Magendie. John Bibby and David R. Bellhouse also mention Magendie's authorship.

Uses

The phrase has been used in the title of a number of popular expositions, including:

The essay The Median Isn't the Message by Stephen Jay Gould begins by repeating this quote. Gould explains how the statistic that peritoneal mesothelioma, the form of cancer with which he was diagnosed in 1982, has a "median survival time of eight months" is misleading.[16]

"Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" is the title of episode 21 in the first season of NBC drama The West Wing.[17]

Sources

Further reading

Notes and References

  1. Book: Oxford Dictionary of Quotations. 7. Elizabeth Knowles. Oxford University Press. 2009. 9780199237173. 10.1093/acref/9780199237173.001.0001. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. attributed to Disraeli in Mark Twain Autobiography (1924) vol. 1; .
  2. Web site: Chapters from My Autobiography . Mark Twain . Mark Twain . 1906-09-07 . . . 2007-05-23.
  3. .
  4. . The quote is on p. 87.
  5. Web site: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics . . 2007-05-23.
  6. Book: Anglo-Norman Studies XIX: Proceedings of the Battle Conference, 1996. Boydell & Brewer Ltd. 1997. 978-0-85115-707-8. 307–. Christopher Harper-Bill.
  7. News: How to succeed by stating the obvious. https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220614/https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-to-succeed-by-stating-the-obvious-1152929.html . 2022-06-14 . subscription . live. 1998-03-28. The Independent. 2017-02-22. en-GB.
  8. SOME SURGICAL SINS. ADDRESS OF CHAIRMAN OF THE SECTION. BY JOHN B. ROBERTS, A.M., M.D.
  9. https://books.google.com/books?id=7GDwpLipBtoC&dq=lies+damned+lies+and+statistics&pg=PA12 ADDRESSES, PAPERS AND DISCUSSIONS IN THE SECTION ON ... SURGERY AND ANATOMY AT THE Forty-Fifth Annual Meeting OF THE American Medical Association, ... HELD AT ... SAN FRANCISCO, CAL., JUNE 5–8, 1894., CHICAGO: PRINTED AT THE OFFICE OF THE JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 1894.
  10. [Jacqueline Simpson]
  11. Economic Journal 2 (6) (1892), 209–238, first paragraph
  12. 1892 Jan talk, June pub
  13. Web site: Nature November 26 1885 . 1869 . 2015-07-07.
  14. Web site: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics . . 2011-05-14.
  15. [Leonard Huxley (writer)|Huxley, Leonard]
  16. 2013-01-01 . The Median Isn't the Message . AMA Journal of Ethics . en . 15 . 1 . 77–81 . 10.1001/virtualmentor.2013.15.1.mnar1-1301 . 23356812 . 2376-6980. Gould . S. J. . free .
  17. Web site: The West Wing: Season 1, Episode 21 : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. IMDb.com. 2014-01-31.

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