2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska explained

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of Nebraska, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Overview

scope=col rowspan=3	District	scope=col colspan=2	Republican	scope=col colspan=2	Democratic	scope=col colspan=2	Others	scope=col colspan=2	Total	scope=col rowspan=3	Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"	!	scope=col colspan=2	!	scope=col colspan=2
scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	% !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	Votes !	scope=col data-sort-type="number"	%
	189,006	59.52%	119,622	37.67%	8,938	2.81%	317,566	100.0%	Republican hold
	171,071	50.77%	155,706	46.21%	10,185	3.02%	336,962	100.0%	Republican hold
	225,157	78.51%	50,690	17.68%	10,923	3.81%	286,770	100.0%	Republican hold
Total	585,234	62.17%	326,018	34.63%	30,046	3.19%	941,298	100.0%

District 1

See also: Nebraska's 1st congressional district. The 1st district is located in eastern Nebraska surrounding Omaha and its suburbs, taking in Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Norfolk. The incumbent was Republican Jeff Fortenberry, who was re-elected with 60.4% of the vote in 2018.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jeff Fortenberry, incumbent U.S. representative

Declined

• Nicholas Oviatt, part-time consultant^[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Kate Bolz, state senator^[3]
• Barbara "Babs" Ramsey, security analyst^[4]

Endorsements

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Dennis B. Grace, U.S. Navy veteran^{[5] [6]}

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[8]		July 2, 2020
align=left	Inside Elections[9]		June 2, 2020
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]		July 2, 2020
Politico[11]		September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[12]		June 3, 2020
RCP[13]		June 9, 2020
Niskanen[14]		June 7, 2020

Results

District 2

See also: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. The 2nd district covers the Omaha metropolitan area, including all of Douglas County, home to the city of Omaha, and suburban parts of western Sarpy County, including La Vista and Papillon. The incumbent was Republican Don Bacon, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.^[1]

Kara Eastman was the Democratic nominee.^[15] She started a nonprofit consulting company in 2019, and was previously the executive director of the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance.^[16] That organization focuses on reducing lead poisoning, and Lee Terry described it as a nonpartisan project.^[17] She is a former member of the Board of Governors of Metropolitan Community College.^[18]

President Donald Trump endorsed Bacon, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden endorsed Eastman.^[19]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Anderson, perennial candidate^[20]
• Don Bacon, incumbent U.S. representative^[21]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Ann Ashford, attorney and wife of former U.S. Representative Brad Ashford^[22]
• Kara Eastman, nonprofit executive and nominee for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2018^[23]
• Gladys Harrison, general manager of Big Mama's Kitchen^[24]

Withdrew

• Morgann Freeman, part-time communications consultant and activist^[25] (endorsed Ashford)
• Dustin Sedoris, U.S. Marine Corps veteran^[26] (endorsed Eastman)^[27]

Declined

• Heath Mello, chief lobbyist for the University of Nebraska system, former state senator, and nominee for mayor of Omaha in 2017^[28]
• Denise Blaya Powell, founder of Women Who Run^[29]

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Tyler Schaeffer^[30]

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[32]		July 16, 2020
align=left	Inside Elections[33]		October 28, 2020
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 2, 2020
Politico		September 9, 2020
Daily Kos		June 3, 2020
RCP		June 9, 2020
Niskanen		June 7, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Don Bacon (R)	Kara Eastman (D)	Tyler Schaeffer (L)	Other	Undecided
UNLV Lee Business School[34]	October 30 – November 2, 2020	191 (LV)	± 7%		47%	46%	–	–	–
Change Research[35]	October 29 – November 2, 2020	920 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%		48%	2%	0%	2%
Emerson College[36]	October 29–30, 2020	806 (LV)	± 3.5%		50%	47%	–	2%	–
FM3 Research (D)[37]	October 1–4, 2020	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	45%		47%	6%	–	–
Siena College/NYT Upshot[38]	September 25–27, 2020	420 (LV)	± 5.3%		45%	43%	3%	1%	8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[39]	September 14–16, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	45%	4%	–	7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[40]	July 27–29, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%		47%	42%	4%	–	7%
GQR Research (D)[41]	June 30 – July 5, 2020	502 (LV)	± 4.37%	49%		50%	–	–	–
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[42]	May 7–10, 2020	448 (LV)	± 4.6%	47%		48%	–	–	–
GQR Research (D)[43]	September 9–12, 2019	400 (LV)	± 4.9%		50%	49%	–	–	–

with Ann Ashford

with Gladys Harrison

Results

Despite Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden winning the district by 6.5 points, Bacon defeated Eastman by 4.6 points. Eastman underperformed Biden by over 11 points.^[44]

By county

County	Don Bacon Republican		Kara Eastman Democratic		Tyler Schaeffer Libertarian		Total votes
	%		%		%
	48.20%	132,230	48.79%	133,827	3.01%	8,252	274,309
	61.99%	38,841	34.92%	21,879	3.09%	1,933	62,653

District 3

See also: Nebraska's 3rd congressional district. The 3rd district covers most of the rural western part of the state, and includes Grand Island, Kearney, Hastings, North Platte, Alliance, and Scottsbluff. The incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who was re-elected with 76.7% of the vote in 2018.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Larry Lee Scott Bolinger,^[45] veteran, graduate from UNO, business owner in property preservation, author of 16 books, and self-defense instructor^[5]
• William Elfgren, grocery worker^{[5] [46]}
• Arron Kowalski, farmer^[5]
• Justin Moran, architectural draftsman, firefighter and welder^[5]
• Adrian Smith, incumbent U.S. representative^[47]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Mark Elworth, Jr., acting chair of the Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska, former Legal Marijuana Now nominee for president in 2020^{[5] [48]}

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Dustin C. Hobbs, reality television show participant^{[5] [49]}

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report		July 2, 2020
align=left	Inside Elections		June 2, 2020
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball		July 2, 2020
Politico		September 9, 2020
Daily Kos		June 3, 2020
RCP		June 9, 2020
Niskanen		June 7, 2020

Results

See also

• 2020 Nebraska elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of Nebraska . (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

• Kate Bolz (D) for Congress
• Jeff Fortenberry (R) for Congress
• Dennis B. Grace (L) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

• Don Bacon (R) for Congress
• Kara Eastman (D) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

• Adrian Smith (R) for Congress

Notes and References

1. Web site: Wasserman. David. Flinn. Ally. 2018 House Popular Vote Tracker. Cook Political Report. November 7, 2018. February 15, 2019. April 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190403141334/https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview. dead.
2. Web site: 25-year-old conservative may challenge Fortenberry in GOP primary. Walton. Don. JournalStar.com. October 2019 . 2019-10-02.
3. Web site: Bolz will challenge Fortenberry for District 1 U.S. House seat. Walton. Don. JournalStar.com. October 3, 2019 . 2019-10-03.
4. Web site: Democratic 1st District House candidate focuses on health care, ag trade. Walton. Don. JournalStar.com. September 12, 2019 . 2019-09-14.
5. Web site: Statewide Candidate List. Nebraska Secretary of State.
6. Web site: Libertarian Dennis Grace running unopposed in primary for congress. 1011 Now. April 16, 2020. August 6, 2020.
7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NDpPbaEN6o YouTube
8. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2019.
9. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 3, 2019.
10. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . August 28, 2019 . August 22, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190822073139/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ . dead .
11. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
12. Web site: Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020 . Daily Kos Elections. February 28, 2020.
13. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
14. Web site: 2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections. April 28, 2020. Niskanen Center. April 29, 2020. June 21, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200621124503/https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/. dead.
15. Web site: Fili. Sarah. 2020-05-13. Kara Eastman wins Democratic nomination for 2nd Congressional District. 2020-10-30. KETV.
16. News: Morton. Joseph. January 10, 2019. Kara Eastman set to launch a campaign and nonprofit consulting company. Omaha World-Herald. October 29, 2020.
17. Web site: Sanderford. Aaron. October 11, 2020. Kara Eastman's urge to help steered her to social work, now points her toward Washington. 2020-10-31. Omaha World-Herald.
18. Web site: Walton. Don. August 31, 2019. Kara Eastman making second bid for Omaha House seat. 2020-10-30. Lincoln Journal-Star.
19. News: September 13, 2020. Biden endorses Eastman in Omaha area House race; Trump backs Bacon. Omaha World-Herald. live. https://archive.today/20200913184441/https://omaha.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/biden-endorses-eastman-in-omaha-area-house-race-trump-backs-bacon/article_fe933a11-90f3-51b7-ab23-eef80b441b7a.html. September 13, 2020. September 23, 2020.
20. Web site: Hammel . Paul . Field is set in race for 20 Legislature seats as final candidates file . Scottsbluff News Herald . March 3, 2020.
21. News: Mauro . Erik . Don Bacon announces 2020 plans today . October 25, 2019 . November 10, 2019.
22. News: Moring. Roseann. Democrat Ann Ashford announces congressional bid for Nebraska's 2nd District. Omaha World-Herald. February 2, 2019. February 15, 2019.
23. News: Moring. Roseann. Kara Eastman seeks a rematch in 2020; Rep. Don Bacon questions early announcement. Omaha World-Herald. December 20, 2018. February 15, 2019.
24. Web site: Gladys Harrison files paperwork for congressional seat . KMTV . January 30, 2020.
25. Web site: Morgann Freeman. Morgann Freeman.
26. News: Moring. Roseann. Marine veteran throws his hat into crowded Democratic primary for Omaha's 2nd District. Omaha World-Herald. April 9, 2019. April 17, 2019.
27. Web site: Democrat Dustin Sedoris drops out of 2nd Congressional District primary, endorses Kara Eastman. Roseann. Moring. Omaha.com. September 11, 2019 . 2019-09-17.
28. News: Moring. Roseann. Ready for more politics? 2020 will be here before you know it, and here's what you can expect. Omaha World-Herald. November 17, 2018. February 15, 2019.
29. News: Cohen. Rachel M.. Grim. Ryan. Kara Eastman Fell Just Short in 2018. The DCCC Is Recruiting a 2020 Opponent Anyway.. The Intercept. June 27, 2019. June 27, 2019.
30. Web site: Election results: Eastman defeats Ashford, Omaha says yes to $200 million bond issue. KETV 7 Omaha. Staff Report. May 13, 2020. August 6, 2020.
31. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89FrxoL_-ik YouTube
32. Web site: 2020 House Race Ratings . The Cook Political Report.
33. Web site: Gonzalez . Nathan . House Ratings . Inside Elections . October 28, 2020 .
34. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201102_NE_UNLV.pdf UNLV Lee Business School
35. https://changeresearch.com/post/final-public-polling-2020/ Change Research
36. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/super-poll-sunday-pregame-polls-show-midwest-shift-for-biden-in-wisconsin-nebraska-s-2nd-district-and-vigo-county-indiana Emerson College
37. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520263-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-tight-house-race-in-key-nebraska-district FM3 Research (D)
38. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ne020920-crosstabs/38a068b5366d4c08/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot
39. https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/NE-02-poll-091720-.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
40. https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/NE-02-poll-091720-.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)
41. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506817-tight-race-brewing-in-nebraska-house-contest-internal-poll GQR Research (D)
42. https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1260396059685199872 DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)
43. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view GQR Research (D)
44. Web site: Livesey. Ben. Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. . 4 November 2020. 15 February 2021.
45. https://www.LarryBolinger.com Larry Lee Scott Bolinger
46. Web site: William Elfgren. Ballotpedia. August 6, 2020.
47. Web site: Adrian Smith Files for Re-Election to Third District Congressional Seat. KTIC Radio. January 24, 2020 . 2020-01-25.
48. Web site: Nebraska Legal Marijuana Now Party Leader Wins Democratic Congressional Nomination. Ballot Access News. Winger. Richard. March 12, 2020. April 17, 2020.
49. Web site: Nebraska man unhappy with portrayal on TV show 'Naked and Afraid'. Service. Jeff Bahr / World-Herald News. Omaha.com. December 18, 2015 . 2020-02-09.