2016 Icelandic parliamentary election explained

Parliamentary elections were held in Iceland on 29 October 2016. They were due to be held on or before 27 April 2017, but following the 2016 Icelandic anti-government protests, the ruling coalition announced that early elections would be held "in autumn".^[1]

The Independence Party emerged as the largest in the Althing, winning 21 of the 63 seats; the Progressive Party, which had won the most seats in 2013, lost more than half its seats as it was overtaken by the Left-Green Movement and the Pirate Party. Of the 63 elected MPs, 30 were female, giving Iceland the highest proportion of female MPs in Europe.^[2]

A new coalition was formed on 10 January 2017, consisting of the Independence Party, Viðreisn and Bright Future, with Bjarni Benediktsson becoming Prime Minister on 11 January 2017.^[3]

Background

In early April 2016, following revelations in the Panama Papers, leaks from law firm Mossack Fonseca about the financial dealings of then Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive Party) and his wife, there were calls for an early election from the opposition,^[4] who planned to present him with a motion of no confidence. Mass protests calling on the Prime Minister to quit followed. Although Sigmundur Davíð had stated he had no intention of resigning, he apparently resigned on 5 April. However, it was later stated by the Prime Minister's office that he had only taken a temporary leave of absence from his duties.^{[4] [5] [6] [7]} The Progressive Party's deputy leader, Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson, became acting Prime Minister the same day.

The President, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, then said he would speak to both coalition parties, Progressive Party and Independence Party, before considering whether to call new elections.^[8] Opposition parties continued to press for new elections.^[9] On 6 April, Sigurður announced, "We expect to have elections this autumn."^[10] On 11 August, Bjarni Benediktsson met with opposition parties and later announced that elections would be held on 29 October 2016.^[11]

Electoral system

The 63 members of the Althing were elected using open list proportional representation in multi-member constituencies of 10 to 11 seats.^[12] Of the 63 seats, 54 were elected using constituency results and determined using the d'Hondt method. The remaining nine supplementary seats were awarded to parties that crossed the 5% national electoral threshold in order to give them a total number of seats equivalent to their national share of the vote.^[12]

Participating parties

See main article: List of political parties in Iceland.

The final deadline for parties to apply for participation in the parliamentary election was 14 October 2016.

Parties with a list for all constituencies

• Bright Future, list letter A
• Progressive Party, list letter B
• Viðreisn, list letter C
• Independence Party, list letter D
• People's Party, list letter F
• Social Democratic Alliance, list letter S
• Dawn, list letter T
• Left-Green Movement, list letter V
• Pirate Party, list letter P

Parties with a list for only some constituencies

• Humanist Party in Reykjavík South, list letter H
• People's Front of Iceland in all constituencies apart from the Northwest, list letter R
• Icelandic National Front in the South and Northwest constituencies, list letter E

Campaign

Sigurður Ingi replaced Sigmundur Davíð as the party chairman of the Progressive Party on 2 October 2016.^[13]

The Pirate Party announced on 16 October 2016 that they would not participate in post-election negotiations to form a coalition government with either the Progressive Party or the Independence Party.^[14] The party did send letters to Reform, Bright Future, Social Democratic Alliance and Left-Green Movement about the possibility of forming an alliance prior to the election.

Opinion polls

Institute	Release date	V	S	P	A	B	D	C	Others	Lead
Gallup		16.5%	7.4%	17.9%	6.8%	9.3%	27.0%	8.8%		9.1%
MMR		16.2%	6.1%	20.5%	6.7%	11.4%	24.7%	8.9%	5.5%	4.2%
Háskóli Íslands		16.8%	5.7%	21.2%	6.7%	10.1%	22.5%	11.4%	5.5%	1.3%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		16.4%	5.7%	18.4%	6.3%	9.9%	27.3%	10.5%	5.5%	8.9%
MMR		16.0%	7.6%	19.1%	8.8%	10.0%	21.9%	9.3%	7.3%	2.8%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		16.4%	6.0%	20.3%	5.1%	11.2%	25.1%	10.8%	5.1%	4.8%
Háskóli Íslands		18.6%	6.5%	22.6%	6.0%	9.1%	21.1%	8.8%	7.3%	1.5%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		19.2%	6.5%	20.7%	7.4%	8.5%	23.7%	6.6%	7.4%	3.0%
MMR		14.5%	9.0%	19.6%	8.2%	9.2%	21.4%	10.2%	7.9%	1.8%
Háskóli Íslands		17.7%	6.9%	17.5%	7.7%	8.6%	21.5%	11.4%	8.7%	4.0%
Gallup		14.5%	7.1%	18.3%	7.7%	9.8%	22.6%	12.4%	7.6%	4.3%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		15.1%	7.3%	22.8%	8.2%	8.5%	22.7%	8.4%	7.0%	0.1%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		12.6%	8.8%	19.2%	6.9%	11.4%	25.9%	6.9%	8.3%	6.7%
Gallup		15.6%	8.5%	20.6%	4.7%	8.2%	23.7%	13.4%	5.4%	3.1%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		12.9%	5.9%	19.9%	3.6%	12.6%	34.6%	7.3%	3.2%	14.7%
MMR		11.5%	9.3%	21.6%	4.9%	12.2%	20.6%	12.3%	6.7%	1.0%
MMR		13.2%	8.1%	22.7%	4.1%	11.0%	22.7%	11.5%	6.7%	Tied
Gallup		13.5%	8.8%	23.1%	2.9%	9.4%	25.5%	12.2%	4.6%	1.4%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		12.7%	7.5%	29.5%	2.0%	10.7%	28.2%	6.7%	2.7%	1.3%
Gallup		16.2%	8.3%	25.8%	2.9%	9.0%	26.3%	10.6%	0.9%	0.5%
MMR		12.4%	9.1%	22.4%	4.5%	10.6%	24.6%	8.8%	7.6%	2.2%
Gallup		16.8%	8.0%	25.3%	4.2%	9.9%	26.2%	9.0%	0.6%	0.9%
MMR		12.9%	8.4%	26.8%	3.9%	8.3%	24.0%	9.4%	6.3%	2.8%
MMR		18.0%	10.9%	24.3%	2.9%	6.4%	25.3%	6.7%	5.4%	1.0%
Gallup		15.2%	8.2%	27.9%	3.4%	10.0%	25.1%	9.4%	0.8%	2.8%
Háskóli Íslands		17.0%	9.0%	28.0%	4.5%	9.5%	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	8.3%
Háskóli Íslands		15.9%	7.6%	29.9%	2.9%	11.1%	22.7%	9.1%	0.8%	7.2%
Háskóli Íslands		16.5%	7.2%	28.3%	3.8%	11.8%	23.9%	7.9%	0.6%	4.4%
Gallup		16.8%	7.7%	27.4%	4.0%	10.2%	28.5%	4.3%	1.1%	1.1%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir		18.1%	6.1%	28.7%	2.5%	7.3%	31.5%		5.8%	2.8%
Háskóli Íslands		18.9%	8.9%	25.8%	4.8%	8.2%	28.2%	3.5%	1.7%	2.4%
MMR		15.8%	7.5%	31.0%	4.9%	10.4%	26.3%		2.5%	4.7%
Fréttablaðið		19.8%	7.4%	30.3%	3.1%	6.5%	31.1%		1.8%	0.8%
Fréttablaðið		14.0%	8.4%	31.8%	4.0%	8.3%	29.9%		3.6%	1.9%
MMR		14.0%	9.7%	28.9%	3.4%	11.2%	27.8%		5.0%	1.1%
Gallup		18.4%	8.3%	26.6%	5.2%	10.5%	27.0%	3.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Gallup		19.8%	9.0%	29.3%	5.0%	6.9%	26.7%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
Háskóli Íslands		14.7%	9.5%	30.9%	4.8%	12.9%	23.3%		3.9%	7.6%
Maskína		20.0%	7.2%	34.2%	5.2%	9.4%	21.3%		2.7%	12.9%
Gallup		16.7%	7.6%	32.4%	5.6%	10.8%	21.9%	3.3%	1.7%	11.5%
MMR		12.8%	9.9%	36.7%	5.8%	8.7%	22.5%		3.6%	12.2%
Fréttablaðið		11.2%	10.2%	43.0%	3.8%	7.9%	21.6%		2.3%	21.4%
Háskóli Íslands		14.9%	8.1%	39.4%	4.4%	10.0%	18.8%		4.4%	20.6%
Gallup		11.0%	9.5%	36.1%	3.2%	12.0%	23.2%	2.1%	2.9%	12.9%
MMR		9.3%	9.2%	38.3%	4.2%	12.4%	22.9%		3.4%	15.4%
Fréttablaðið		8.4%	8.2%	38.1%	1.8%	12.8%	27.6%		3.1%	10.5%
MMR		7.8%	7.8%	37.0%	4.2%	12.8%	23.4%		7%	13.6%
Gallup		10.8%	9.7%	35.9%	3.3%	11.0%	23.7%		5.6%	12.2%
Gallup		10.8%	9.2%	35.3%	3.6%	12.0%	24.4%		4.7%	10.9%
MMR		11.0%	9.4%	35.6%	4.4%	12.2%	21.1%		5.9%	14.5%
Fréttablaðið		9.6%	9.9%	41.8%	1.6%	10.2%	23.2%		3.7%	18.6%
Gallup		10.2%	10.4%	33.1%	4.2%	12.0%	25.2%		4.9%	7.9%
MMR		11.4%	12.9%	34.9%	5.3%	11.5%	20.6%		3.4%	14.3%
Gallup		11.4%	10.1%	32.9%	3.9%	12.0%	24.8%		4.9%	8.1%
MMR		9.9%	10.5%	35.3%	4.6%	10.8%	23.7%		5.2%	11.6%
Gallup		11.1%	10.6%	35.5%	4.6%	9.6%	24.6%		4.4%	0.9%
MMR		11.8%	11.3%	34.2%	6.5%	10.4%	21.7%		4.1%	12.5%
Gallup		10.6%	10.1%	34.6%	5.6%	10.1%	24.4%		4.6%	10.2%
MMR		9.6%	10.6%	33.0%	5.8%	11.4%	25.3%		4.3%	7.7%
Gallup		11.8%	9.3%	35.9%	4.4%	11.1%	21.7%		5.8%	14.2%
Gallup		8.9%	12.2%	32.3%	5.0%	12.4%	24.0%		5.2%	8.3%
MMR		10.2%	9.6%	35.0%	4.4%	12.2%	23.1%		5.5%	7.9%
MMR		12.0%	9.3%	33.2%	5.6%	10.6%	23.8%		5.5%	9.4%
Rúv		10.3%	11.4%	32.0%	6.4%	11.3%	24.5%		4.1%	7.5%
MMR		10.5%	11.6%	32.4%	6.8%	10.0%	23.3%		5.4%	9.1%
FBL		7.3%	11.1%	37.5%	3.3%	8.5%	29.5%		2.8%	8.0%
MMR		11.1%	11.8%	34.5%	6.7%	11.3%	21.2%		3.5%	13.3%
Gallup		9.8%	12.4%	34.1%	7.4%	8.9%	23.0%		4.3%	11.1%
MMR		10.4%	13.1%	32.7%	6.3%	8.6%	23.1%		5.6%	9.6%
MMR		10.8%	10.7%	32.0%	8.3%	10.8%	21.9%		5.5%	10.1%
Gallup		10.6%	14.1%	30.1%	7.8%	10.1%	22.9%		4.4%	9.2%
Gallup		10.1%	15.8%	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	25.0%		5.7%	3.3%
Kjarninn		10.2%	16.1%	23.6%	10.1%	11.0%	24.8%		4.2%	1.2%
MMR		9.0%	16.3%	29.1%	9.0%	11.6%	23.4%		1.7%	5.7%
MMR		10.8%	15.5%	23.9%	10.3%	11.0%	23.4%		5.1%	0.5%
Fréttablaðið		10.4%	16.1%	21.9%	9.2%	10.1%	28.0%		4.3%	6.1%
Rúv		11.2%	17.1%	15.2%	13.3%	11.0%	26.1%		6.1%	9.0%
MMR		12.9%	14.5%	12.8%	15.0%	13.1%	25.5%		6.2%	10.5%
Gallup		11.0%	18.0%	12.0%	13.0%	13.0%	27.0%		6.0%	9.0%
MMR		11.9%	15.9%	12.8%	16.9%	9.4%	27.3%		5.8%	'10.4%
Mbl		11.6%	16.1%	11.4%	16.2%	11.0%	29.0%		4.7%	12.8%
Fréttablaðið		13.1%	19.2%	9.2%	12.5%	12.8%	32.9%			13.7%
MMR		10.7%	16.1%	11.3%	18.6%	12.3%	23.6%		7.4%	5.0%
Gallup		13.0%	19.0%	7.0%	16.0%	12.0%	27.0%			8.0%
MMR		10.4%	16.9%	9.2%	17.8%	11.3%	28.2%		6.2%	10.4%
MMR		9.6%	20.3%	10.3%	17.6%	9.6%	26.6%		6.0%	6.3%
MMR		11.6%	17.0%	9.6%	19.2%	11.8%	24.1%		6.7%	7.1%
MMR		11.4%	16.5%	8.3%	21.8%	11.4%	25.0%		5.6%	3.2%
MMR		11.6%	16.4%	9.6%	19.4%	12.3%	22.1%		8.6%	2.7%
MMR		11.7%	17.4%	9.0%	15.5%	14.1%	25.1%		7.2%	7.7%
MMR		11.5%	15.1%	11.0%	17.1%	14.4%	23.9%		7.0%	6.8%
MMR		10.4%	14.0%	9.3%	16.4%	14.6%	29.0%		5.6%	12.6%
RÚV		13.0%	16.8%	9.8%	15.8%	15.3%	23.7%		5.6%	6.9%
Capacent		12.7%	14.9%	8.1%	14.2%	18.3%	26.9%			8.6%
MMR		11.0%	17.1%	6.9%	15.9%	17.0%	26.3%		5.6%	9.2%
Capacent		13.3%	15.1%	10.7%	13.1%	16.4%	25.3%			8.9%
MMR		12.6%	13.8%	9.0%	15.2%	15.0%	26.8%			11.6%
2013 result		10.9%	12.9%	5.1%	8.3%	24.4%	26.7%			2.3%
Institute	Release date	V	S	P	A	B	D	C	Others	Lead

Results

Voter turnout was the lowest turnout in Iceland's history.^[15]

Government formation

Neither of the two main blocs — the outgoing coalition of the Independence Party and the Progressives, or the centre-left opposition (Left-Greens, Pirates, Bright Future and Social Democrats) — secured an overall majority, leaving the new centrist party Reform as possible kingmakers.^[16]

The leader of the Independence Party, Bjarni Benediktsson, expressed preference for a three-party coalition, although without saying which three parties. The Pirate Party proposed a five-party coalition with the Left-Green Movement, the Social Democrats, Bright Future and Reform, having previously ruled out working with either of the two outgoing coalition members.^[2] The Pirate Party then suggested a minority coalition of Left-Green Movement, Bright Future and Reform, with outside support from themselves and the Social Democrats, in order to simplify the process of government formation.^[17]

The leader of Reform ruled out a right-leaning three-party coalition with the Independence Party and the Progressives,^[18] and did not rule out supporting the centre-left bloc.^[19]

On 2 November, President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson gave the mandate to Bjarni to form a majority government.^[20] On 11 November, the Independence Party, Reform and Bright Future entered into formal coalition talks,^[21] but the three parties failed to agree with a new market-based fishing quota system and an EU referendum as the main stumbling blocks.

On 17 November, the mandate to form a majority government was in turn given to the leader of the Left-Greens, Katrín Jakobsdóttir.^[22] She instigated talks with Reform, Bright Future, the Pirates, and Social Democrats, and on 19 November the five parties agreed to start formal coalition talks. On 24 November, the coalition talks fell through and Katrín formally renounced the Presidential mandate to form a government.^[23]

On 2 December, the mandate to form a majority government was given to the leader of the Pirate Party, Birgitta Jónsdóttir.^[24] The Pirates were unable to form a government and the President chose not to give a new mandate to form a government, but asked the party leaders to discuss the matter informally.^[25]

On 2 January 2017, the Independence Party started official talks about a possible coalition deal with Viðreisn and Bright Future. Morgunblaðið also reported that the Left-Green Movement and the Progressive Party had also discussed possible coalition deals with the Independence Party.^[26] A new coalition was formed on 10 January 2017 between Independence Party, Viðreisn and the Bright Future with Bjarni Benediktsson becoming Prime Minister on 11 January 2017.^{[3] [27]}

Notes and References

1. http://ruv.is/frett/kosningar-i-haust-lilja-verdur-radherra Kosningar í haust - Lilja verður ráðherra
2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/30/iceland-elections-ruling-centre-right-party-pirate-party Iceland elections leave ruling centre-right party in driving seat
3. Web site: Arnarsdóttir. Eygló Svala. New Government Announced Tomorrow. Iceland Review. 10 January 2017. en. 9 January 2017. 10 January 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170110144428/http://icelandreview.com/news/2017/01/09/new-government-announced-tomorrow. live.
4. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/03/iceland-pm-calls-snap-election-offshore-revelations Iceland’s PM faces calls for snap election after offshore revelations
5. Web site: PM Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson Wavers On Resignation. The Reykjavik Grapevine. 5 April 2016 . 2016-04-06. 2016-04-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20160406024620/http://grapevine.is/news/2016/04/05/pm-sigmundur-david-gunnlaugsson-wavers-on-resignation/. live.
6. Web site: Iceland PM calls to dissolve parliament after tax scandal. Reuters UK. en-GB. 2016-04-05. 2016-04-05. https://web.archive.org/web/20160405175614/http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-panama-tax-iceland-idUKKCN0X21MX. dead.
7. News: Henley. Jon. Iceland PM steps aside after protests over Panama Papers revelations. 6 April 2016. The Guardian. 5 April 2016. 18 November 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171118220314/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/05/iceland-prime-minister-resigns-over-panama-papers-revelations. live.
8. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/05/europe/panama-papers-iceland-pm/ Iceland swears in new PM amid Panama Papers fallout
9. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35966412 Panama Papers: Iceland PM Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson steps down
10. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35983450 Panama papers: Iceland names PM replacement
11. News: Boða til kosninga 29. október. 11 August 2016. MBL. 11 August 2016. is. 14 August 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160814035649/http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2016/08/11/boda_til_kosninga_29_oktober/. live.
12. http://electionresources.org/is/ Elections to the Icelandic Althing (Parliament)
13. News: Sigurður Ingi kjörinn formaður Framsóknar. 2016-10-02. RÚV. 2016-10-17. 2016-10-20. https://web.archive.org/web/20161020144220/http://www.ruv.is/frett/sigurdur-ingi-kjorinn-formadur-framsoknar. live.
14. News: Píratar útiloka stjórnarflokkana. 2016-10-17. 2016-10-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20161019114633/http://www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2016/10/16/piratar_utiloka_stjornarflokkana/. live.
15. Web site: Kjörsókn aldrei verið minni . 30 October 2016 . Vísir . 2016-12-03 . 2016-11-02 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161102162048/http://www.visir.is/kjorsokn-aldrei-verid-minni/article/2016161039950 . live .
16. Web site: Duxbury . Charles . Iceland Lawmakers Face Tricky Negotiations After Inconclusive Election . WSJ . 2016-10-30 . 2016-12-03 . 2016-12-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161203022250/http://www.wsj.com/articles/iceland-election-leaves-government-with-no-clear-majority-1477793918 . live .
17. Web site: Pirates Suggest Minority Government . 31 October 2016 . Iceland Review . 2016-12-03 . 2016-11-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161106135030/http://icelandreview.com/news/2016/10/31/PIRATES-SUGGEST-MINORITY-GOVERNMENT . live .
18. Web site: grapevine.is . Elections 2016: What Will Iceland's Next Government Be? . The Reykjavik Grapevine . 2016-10-31 . 2016-12-03 . 2016-12-01 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161201190136/http://grapevine.is/news/2016/10/31/elections-2016-what-will-icelands-next-government-be/ . live .
19. Web site: Viðreisn útilokar ekki minnihlutastjórn með Bjartri framtíð og VG . 31 October 2016 . Vísir . 2016-12-03 . 2016-11-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161103063854/http://www.visir.is/vidreisn-utilokar-ekki-minnihlutastjorn-med-bjartri-framtid-og-vg/article/2016161039780 . live .
20. Web site: The Associated Press . Independence Party given mandate to form Iceland government . The Seattle Times . 2016-11-02 . 2016-12-03 . 2016-11-04 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161104024421/http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/independence-party-given-mandate-to-form-iceland-government/ . live .
21. Web site: Formal Talks Begin For 3-Party Centre-Right Coalition. The Reykjavík Grapevine. Fontaine. Paul. en. 11 November 2016. 12 November 2016. 12 November 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161112151340/https://grapevine.is/news/2016/11/11/formal-talks-begin-for-3-party-centre-right-coalition/. live.
22. News: Party leader Jakobsdottir given chance to form Iceland coalition. 16 November 2016. Europe Online. 19 November 2016. 20 November 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161120150041/http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/party-leader-jakobsdottir-given-chance-to-form-iceland-coalition_495548.html. live.
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