2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election explained

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.

After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.

Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.^[1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. As of 2023, this election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii, chair, House District 29^[2]
• Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[3] [4] [5]}
• David Ige, incumbent governor^{[3] [6]}
• Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate^[7]
• Van Tanabe

Withdrew

• Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014^{[8] [9]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige	Colleen Hanabusa	Clayton Hee	Undecided
Merriman River Group[10]	July 19–21, 2018	871	± 3.3%	align=center	43%	34%	–	18%
Mason-Dixon[11]	July 6–11, 2018	494	± 4.5%	align=center	44%	40%	–	16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[12]	June 21 – July 6, 2018	518	± 4.4%	31%	align=center	57%	–	11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[13]	April 21 – May 7, 2018	888	± 3.4%	23%	align=center	52%	6%	19%
Merriman River Group[14]	May 3–5, 2018	707	± 3.7%	31%	align=center	37%	11%	16%
Mason-Dixon[15]	March 13–18, 2018	498	± 4.5%	27%	align=center	47%	11%	15%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Bernard Carvalho, Mayor of Kauai County^[16]
• Will Espero, State Senate Vice President and candidate for HI-01 in 2014^[17]
• Josh Green, state senator^{[4] [18] [17]}
• Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state Board of Education member^[19]
• Jill Tokuda, State Senator^[3]

Withdrew

• Alan Arakawa, Mayor of Maui County^[20] (running for Maui County Council)^[21]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bernard Carvalho	Will Espero	Josh Green	Kim Coco Iwamoto	Jill Tokuda	Undecided
Merriman River Group[22]	July 19–21, 2018	871	± 3.3%	13%	5%	align=center	31%	10%	17%	26%
Mason-Dixon	July 6–11, 2018	494	± 4.5%	14%	6%	align=center	34%	10%	14%	22%
Merriman River Group[23]	May 3–5, 2018	707	± 3.7%	align=center	19%	8%	16%	14%	11%	align=center	32%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	498	± 4.5%	14%	9%	align=center	19%	5%	12%	align=center	41%

Results

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator^[7]
• Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel^[24]
• Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives^{[25] [26]}

Withdrew

• Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002^{[27] [28]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Carroll	Raymond L'Heureux	Andria Tupola	Undecided
Merriman River Group[29]	July 19–21, 2018	219	± 6.6%	22%	4%	align=center	39%	22%
Mason-Dixon[30]	July 6–11, 2018	143	± 8.4%	28%	8%	align=center	41%	23%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	134	± 8.6%	align=center	40%	–	28%	32%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Marissa Kerns
• Steve Lipscomb
• Jeremy Low

Results

Green primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Jim Brewer

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Renee Ing

Results

Nonpartisan primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Selina Blackwell
• Link El
• Terrence Teruya

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Ernest Magaoay
• Paul Robotti

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[32]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[33]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[34]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[35]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[37]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[38]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[39]		November 5, 2018
Politico[40]		November 5, 2018
Governing[41]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige (D)	Andria Tupola (R)	Undecided
Merriman River Group[43]	October 8–12, 2018	961	± 4.3%	align=center	52%	31%	11%
Mason-Dixon[44]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	57%	34%	9%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	51%	24%	25%

with David Ige and John Carroll

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige (D)	John Carroll (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	62%	23%	15%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	52%	27%	21%

with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux

with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Colleen Hanabusa (D)	John Carroll (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	51%	31%	18%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	57%	31%	12%

with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Colleen Hanabusa (D)	Andria Tupola (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	48%	35%	17%
Mason-Dixon	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	56%	28%	16%

with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux

Results

By congressional district

Ige won both congressional districts.^[45]

District	Ige	Tupola	Representative
	64%	33%		Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress)
			Ed Case (118th Congress)
		61%	35%		Tulsi Gabbard

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• David Ige (D) for Governor (archived)
• Terrence Teruya (NP) for Governor (archived)
• Andria Tupola (R) for Governor (archived)

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

• Josh Green (D) for Lieutenant Governor (archived)
• Marissa Kerns (R) for Lieutenant Governor (archived)

Notes and References

1. News: Idaho is no longer safe for Republicans; Paulette Jordan trails by 8 points . August 19, 2018 . Mark . Trahant . Indian Country Today . News Maven . December 2, 2019 .
2. News: Ernest Caravalho . Ballotpedia . July 6, 2018 .
3. Web site: Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige. Singer. Jeff. June 6, 2017. Daily Kos. June 6, 2017.
4. Web site: Brace yourselves, primaries are coming. Hooser. Gary. The Garden Island. August 9, 2017. August 22, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170815033256/http://thegardenisland.com/news/opinion/guest/brace-yourselves-primaries-are-coming/article_48e46a51-e37e-5ddb-af81-86e17b39e016.html. August 15, 2017. dead.
5. Web site: U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor. Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. September 1, 2017.
6. News: Green saving up for run at higher office. Callis. Tom. Hawaii Tribune-Herald. January 3, 2016. November 15, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161116225732/http://hawaiitribune-herald.com/news/local-news/green-saving-run-higher-office. November 16, 2016. dead.
7. Web site: Familiar candidate aims for governor. Cook Lauer. Nancy. West Hawaii Today. January 6, 2018. January 7, 2018 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20180106130928/http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/news/local-news/familiar-candidate-aims-governor . January 6, 2018 .
8. Web site: Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor. Blair. Chad. Honolulu Civil Beat. February 27, 2018. February 28, 2018.
9. Web site: Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race. Blair. Chad. Honolulu Civil Beat. June 4, 2018. June 8, 2018.
10. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4622360/CB-July-2018-Dem-Gov.pdf Merriman River Group
11. https://www.scribd.com/document/383868978/Hawaii-Poll-Statewide-Name-Recognition-in-Governor-s-Race Mason-Dixon
12. https://www.scribd.com/document/383969550/HI-Gov-QMark-D-for-Colleen-Hanabusa-July-2018 QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
13. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/latest-poll-hanabusa-leads-ige-by-more-than-2-to-1-300655321.html QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
14. http://www.civilbeat.org/2018/05/civil-beat-poll-hanabusa-leads-ige-by-6-as-primary-draws-closer/ Merriman River Group
15. https://www.scribd.com/document/374711097/The-Hawaii-Poll-March-2018-Governor-s-Race Mason-Dixon
16. Web site: Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor. KHON 2. October 26, 2017. November 5, 2017.
17. Web site: Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018. Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. September 1, 2017.
18. News: 3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid. Cook Lauer. Nancy. June 13, 2017. Hawaii Tribune-Herald. August 22, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170823014913/http://hawaiitribune-herald.com/news/local-news/3-show-interest-green-s-seat-senator-eyes-lieutenant-gov-bid. August 23, 2017. dead.
19. Web site: Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor. Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. November 5, 2017. February 8, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180208002107/http://www.kitv.com/story/36768810/kim-coco-iwamoto-announces-bid-for-lieutenant-governor. dead.
20. Web site: Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor. Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. November 5, 2017.
21. Web site: Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant. MauiTime. Anthony. Pignataro. April 3, 2018. April 15, 2018.
22. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4623194/CB-July-2018-Dem-LG.pdf Merriman River Group
23. http://www.civilbeat.org/2018/05/civil-beat-poll-carvalho-ahead-in-lieutenant-governor-race/ Merriman River Group
24. News: Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona. West Hawaii Today. Dible. Max. April 14, 2018.
25. News: The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair. 2018-04-05. en.
26. Web site: Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race. Hawaii News Now. Daverta. Jobeth. Jan 21, 2018. Jan 26, 2018.
27. Web site: McDermott touts leadership, enters 2018 race for governor. Hawaii News Now. Nagaoka. Ashley. May 12, 2017. May 13, 2017.
28. Web site: Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race. Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Dayton. Kevin. August 29, 2017. August 30, 2017.
29. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4622361/CB-July-2018-GOP-Gov.pdf Merriman River Group
30. http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/07/15/hawaii-news/tupola-surges-from-behind-to-take-big-lead-in-gop-race/ Mason-Dixon
31. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4623193/CB-July-2018-GOP-LG.pdf Merriman River Group
32. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
33. Web site: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
34. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. en. October 17, 2018.
35. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
36. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball – 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
37. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
38. Web site: June 5, 2018. 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos.
39. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
40. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
41. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
42. https://www.c-span.org/video/?453889-1/hawaii-gubernatorial-debate Full debate
43. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5006014/CB-Oct-2018-Governor.pdf Merriman River Group
44. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mason_Dixon_Hawaii.pdf Mason-Dixon
45. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-18 . Daves Redistricting.