See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| College Voted: | no |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Country: | New Mexico |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Electoral Vote1: | 5 |
| Electoral Vote2: | 0 |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Turnout: | 66.78% (of eligible voters) (1.89 pp) |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Percentage1: | 51.85% |
| Percentage2: | 45.85% |
| Popular Vote1: | 478,802 |
| Popular Vote2: | 423,391 |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| President | |
| Type: | Presidential |
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
A Southwestern state, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since statehood except for 1976 (backing the losing candidate, Republican Gerald Ford, by merely 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state. The last Republican to win the state was George W. Bush from neighboring Texas in 2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state since 2008.
Before President Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some.[1] However, after incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column.
Although Harris won New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004, and the narrowest Democratic win at this level since Al Gore's 0.06% margin of victory in 2000. Despite this, New Mexico voted 7.7% to the left of the nation in this election, about 1 percent more Democratic than in 2020, during which it voted 6.3% to the left of the nation. Trump flipped majority-Hispanic Socorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. It is also the second time since statehood that it voted for a different candidate than Nevada, another Southwestern state, after 2000.
See main article: 2024 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary. The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
See main article: 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary. The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
See main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries. The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% | |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% | |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% | |
| Source: | |||
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report | June 12, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis | November 1, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist | August 20, 2024 | |
| 538 | June 11, 2024 | ||
| NBC News | October 6, 2024 | ||
| YouGov | October 16, 2024 | ||
| Split Ticket | November 1, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights[2] | data-sort-value="2024-10-31" | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49.6% | 44.7% | 5.7% |
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-10-31" | October 28–31, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-10-26" | October 24–26, 2024 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-09-22" | September 19−22, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-09-06" | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | |||||||
| Emerson College | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% | |
| 54% | 46% | – | |||||
| Democratic National Convention begins | |||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-10-14" | October 12–14, 2024 | 382 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-09-06" | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-08-22" | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-03" | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | data-sort-value="2024-10-18" | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 6% | |
| Research & Polling Inc. | data-sort-value="2024-09-13" | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-24" | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2024-06-14" | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% | |
| John Zogby Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-05-01" | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% | |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2022-10-28" | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2022-09-11" | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% | |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Harris won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[3]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative | Cook PVI | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.10% | 43.16% | Melanie Stansbury | D+6 | ||||
| 48.33% | 50.25% | Gabe Vasquez | R+1 | ||||
| 51.67% | 46.83% | Teresa Leger Fernandez | D+2 |
Partisan clients
New Mexico2024United States presidential