| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Country: | Maine |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | y |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Electoral Vote1: | 3 |
| Popular Vote1: | 435,351 |
| Percentage1: | 52.39% |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
| Electoral Vote2: | 1 |
| Popular Vote2: | 377,837 |
| Percentage2: | 45.47% |
| Map Size: | 401px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Donald Trump |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Maine is a sparsely populated rural state in Northern New England. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020.
Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the November 2024 general election. Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Hillary Clinton. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Trump also flipped Kennebec County, which he had won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020.[1] [2]
See main article: 2024 Maine Democratic presidential primary.
The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
See main article: 2024 Maine Republican presidential caucuses.
The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary. On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, and the appeal was dismissed on January 24.[3] On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson[4] that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not. The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.[5]
| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist | September 5, 2024 | ||||
| Cook Political Report | August 27, 2024 | ||||
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | November 4, 2024 | ||||
| CNalysis | November 4, 2024 | ||||
| 538 | July 15, 2024 | ||||
| CNN | January 14, 2024 | ||||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | June 29, 2023 | ||||
| Inside Elections | April 26, 2023 | ||||
| NBC News | October 6, 2024 | ||||
| YouGov | November 1, 2024 | ||||
| Split Ticket | November 1, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% | |
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-11-02" | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,485 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-10-29" | October 24–29, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | |
| Pan Atlantic Research | data-sort-value="2024-09-15" | September 5–15, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | |
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-05-01" | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% | |
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 38% | 30% | ||
| Digital Research | data-sort-value=2023-11-02 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value=2022-09-20 | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | Elim | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | Elim | Elim | Elim | ||||
| 5 | 51% | 49% | Elim | Elim | Elim | Elim |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | data-sort-value="2024-09-15" | September 5–15, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 58% | 32% | 10% | |
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-11-02" | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 60% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-10-29" | October 24–29, 2024 | 482 (LV) | – | 58% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 31% | 31% | ||
| Digital Research | data-sort-value=2024-01-11 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis Research | data-sort-value="2024-09-15" | October 17–20, 2024 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 41% | 8% | |
| Pan Atlantic Research | data-sort-value="2024-09-15" | September 5–15, 2024 | 398 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% | |
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-11-02" | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | |
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-10-29" | October 24–29, 2024 | 484 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 25% | 30% | ||
| Digital Research | data-sort-value=2024-01-11 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | ||||||||||||||||
| Androscoggin | 27,019 | 45.91% | 30,605 | 52.01% | 1,223 | 2.08% | -3,586 | -6.10% | 58,847 | ||||||||||
| Aroostook | 12,900 | 36.18% | 22,246 | 62.40% | 507 | 1.42% | -9,346 | -26.22% | 35,653 | ||||||||||
| Cumberland | 127,971 | 66.42% | 59,964 | 31.12% | 4,721 | 2.46% | 68,007 | 35.30% | 192,656 | ||||||||||
| Franklin | 7,990 | 44.80% | 9,459 | 53.03% | 387 | 2.17% | -1,469 | -8.23% | 17,836 | ||||||||||
| Hancock | 19,817 | 54.66% | 15,551 | 42.90% | 885 | 2.44% | 4,266 | 11.76% | 36,253 | ||||||||||
| Kennebec | 34,585 | 47.45% | 36,589 | 50.20% | 1,712 | 2.35% | -2,004 | -2.75% | 72,886 | ||||||||||
| Knox | 15,076 | 58.22% | 10,262 | 39.63% | 555 | 2.15% | 4,814 | 18.59% | 25,893 | ||||||||||
| Lincoln | 13,110 | 54.62% | 10,409 | 43.37% | 484 | 2.01% | 2,701 | 11.25% | 24,003 | ||||||||||
| Oxford | 14,765 | 42.69% | 19,228 | 55.59% | 597 | 1.72% | -4,463 | -12.90% | 34,590 | ||||||||||
| Penobscot | 37,945 | 43.58% | 47,438 | 54.48% | 1,690 | 1.94% | -9,493 | -10.90% | 87,073 | ||||||||||
| Piscataquis | 3,510 | 34.39% | 6,487 | 63.57% | 208 | 2.04% | -2,977 | -29.18% | 10,205 | ||||||||||
| Sagadahoc | 13,982 | 57.17% | 9,917 | 40.55% | 557 | 2.28% | 4,065 | 16.62% | 24,456 | ||||||||||
| Somerset | 10,134 | 35.63% | 17,826 | 62.68% | 481 | 1.69% | -7,692 | -27.05% | 28,441 | ||||||||||
| Waldo | 12,661 | 50.38% | 11,815 | 47.02% | 654 | 2.60% | 846 | 3.36% | 25,130 | ||||||||||
| Washington | 6,763 | 37.48% | 11,001 | 60.96% | 282 | 1.56% | -4,238 | -23.48% | 18,046 | ||||||||||
| York | 71,813 | 54.22% | 58,054 | 43.83% | 2,585 | 1.95% | 13,759 | 10.39% | 132,452 | ||||||||||
| Total | 435,351 | 52.39% | 377,837 | 45.47% | 17,801 | 2.14% | 57,514 | 6.92% | 830,989 | ||||||||||