2024 United States presidential election in Indiana explained

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Indiana
Country:Indiana
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:y
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Indiana
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:JD Vance
Electoral Vote1:11
Popular Vote1:1,720,347
Percentage1:58.58%
Nominee2:Kamala Harris
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:California
Running Mate2:Tim Walz
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,163,603
Percentage2:39.62%

The 2024 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Indiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Republican Donald Trump won Indiana for the third time in a row this year, with a comfortable margin of 18.9%; he had swept the state in the previous two presidential election cycles with former Governor of Indiana Mike Pence on the ticket: by 19% in 2016 and by 16% in 2020. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a red state.

Indiana has a reputation for being the most conservative state in the Great Lakes region, with the southern region of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt. The only Democrat to carry Indiana at the presidential level after landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 was Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois, who narrowly won the state in 2008. In addition, Indiana was decided by single digits in the elections of 1976, 1992, and 1996, all three of which consisted of the state being won by a Republican as a former Southern governor won under the Democratic banner.

Trump flipped the swing county of Tippecanoe, home to Lafayette and Purdue University, which had voted Republican in 2012 and 2016 but flipped Democratic in 2020. Trump also became the first presidential Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988 to carry the Chicago exurban county of Porter by a double-digit margin and the first since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to achieve likewise with neighboring LaPorte County.

Despite Democrat Kamala Harris's loss, she slightly improved on Joe Biden's margins of defeat in a handful of suburban Indianapolis counties — most notably Hamilton, which went for Trump by less than 7% in both this election and 2020; and Boone, in which she became the first presidential Democrat to garner over 40% of the vote since LBJ, who lost the county by a mere 4.9% in 1964.[1] With Harris narrowly winning St. Joseph County, home to South Bend, this was the first election since 1976 in which said county did not vote for the winner of the nationwide popular vote.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Indiana Democratic presidential primary. The 2024 Indiana Democratic presidential primary was held on May 7, 2024. 88 delegates, 79 pledged and 9 superdelegates, to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.

In Indiana, candidates have to gather at least 500 signatures from each congressional district, for a total of 4,500 signatures, to make the primary ballot. Incumbent President Joe Biden was the only candidate that met the requirements. Uncommitted will not appear on the ballot and write-in votes are not allowed.

With no opposition, President Biden won 100% of the primary vote.

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Indiana Republican presidential primary. The Indiana Republican primary was held on May 7, 2024. Nikki Haley, who had already dropped out, and Donald Trump appeared on the ballot.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political ReportDecember 19, 2023
align=left Inside ElectionsApril 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallJune 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The HillDecember 14, 2023
align=left CNalysisDecember 30, 2023
align=left CNNJanuary 14, 2024
align=left The EconomistJune 12, 2024
538September 23, 2024
RCPJune 26, 2024
NBC NewsOctober 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Kamala
Harris
Other /
Undecided
ActiVotedata-sort-value="2024-10-28" October 3–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%
ActiVotedata-sort-value="2024-09-30" August 28 – September 30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%57%43%
ARW Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-09-25" September 23–25, 2024600 (LV)55%39%6%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 12–13, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%57%40%3%
58%41%1%
Lake Research Partners (D)data-sort-value="2024-09-02" August 26 – September 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%6%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-05-01" April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)47%43%10%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-03-07" March 2–5, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%34%11%
Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023462 (RV)± 4.5%48%29%24%
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

Partisan clients

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . 2024-11-20 . uselectionatlas.org.