2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas explained

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his election bids in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.

The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump again easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. Republicans have held every statewide elected position in the state since 2015.

Now a deeply red state, Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64% margin. Trump became the first Republican to carry the Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary. The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Arkansas Republican presidential primary. The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	Cook Political Report		December 19, 2023
align=left	Inside Elections		April 26, 2023
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball		June 29, 2023
align=left	Decision Desk HQ/The Hill		December 14, 2023
align=left	CNalysis		December 30, 2023
align=left	CNN		January 14, 2024
align=left	The Economist		June 12, 2024
538		June 11, 2024
RCP		June 26, 2024
NBC News		October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies	data-sort-value="2024-05-01"	April 13–21, 2024	385 (LV)	–	48%	42%	10%
Emerson College	data-sort-value="2023-10-15"	October 1–4, 2023	435 (RV)	± 4.7%	57%	24%	19%
Echelon Insights	data-sort-value="2022-09-07"	August 31 – September 7, 2022	600 (LV)	± 7.7%	58%	33%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Results

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Arkansas		3,951		71.23%		1,503		27.10%		93		1.68%		2,448		44.13%		5,547
	Ashley		5,145		73.19%		1,774		25.23%		111		1.58%		3,371		47.96%		7,030
	Baxter		16,253		77.57%		4,341		20.72%		360		1.72%		11,912		56.85%		20,954
	Benton		79,907		62.14%		45,231		35.17%		3,457		2.69%		34,676		26.97%		128,595
	Boone		13,968		81.63%		2,854		16.68%		290		1.69%		11,114		64.95%		17,112
	Bradley		2,213		68.96%		961		29.95%		35		1.09%		1,252		39.01%		3,209
	Calhoun		1,674		80.02%		379		18.12%		39		1.86%		1,295		61.90%		2,092
	Carroll		7,470		64.74%		3,812		33.04%		256		2.22%		3,658		31.70%		11,538
	Chicot		1,658		47.51%		1,796		51.46%		36		1.03%		-138		-3.95%		3,490
	Clark		4,526		59.11%		2,959		38.64%		172		2.25%		1,567		20.47%		7,657
	Clay		3,968		79.89%		907		18.26%		92		1.85%		3,061		61.63%		4,967
	Cleburne		10,595		83.17%		1,941		15.24%		203		1.59%		8,654		67.93%		12,739
	Cleveland		2,804		83.11%		521		15.53%		46		1.36%		2,280		67.58%		3,374
	Columbia		5,367		67.59%		2,466		31.06%		107		1.35%		2,901		36.53%		7,940
	Conway		5,893		69.00%		2,449		28.67%		199		2.33%		3,444		40.33%		8,541
	Craighead		25,152		67.54%		11,210		30.10%		880		2.36%		13,942		37.44%		37,242
	Crawford		18,615		78.10%		4,753		19.94%		466		1.96%		13,862		58.16%		23,834
	Crittenden		7,028		47.87%		7,362		50.15%		291		1.98%		-334		-2.28%		14,681
	Cross		4,753		72.74%		1,642		25.13%		139		2.13%		3,111		47.61%		6,534
	Dallas		1,482		63.77%		798		34.34%		44		1.89%		684		29.43%		2,324
	Desha		1,805		51.50%		1,638		46.73%		62		1.77%		167		4.77%		3,505
	Drew		4,203		66.03%		2,050		32.21%		112		1.76%		2,153		33.82%		6,365
	Faulkner		35,357		64.92%		17,752		32.59%		1,356		2.49%		17,605		32.33%		54,465
	Franklin		5,582		80.07%		1,232		17.67%		157		2.25%		4,350		62.40%		6,971
	Fulton		4,040		80.11%		906		17.97%		97		1.92%		3,134		62.14%		5,043
	Garland		28,359		67.00%		13,015		30.75%		953		2.25%		15,344		36.25%		42,327
	Grant		6,755		83.62%		1,192		14.76%		131		1.62%		5,563		68.86%		8,078
	Greene		12,617		79.75%		2,935		18.55%		268		1.69%		9,682		61.20%		15,820
	Hempstead		4,193		68.86%		1,776		29.17%		120		1.97%		2,417		39.69%		6,089
	Hot Spring		9,226		75.11%		2,818		22.94%		239		1.95%		6,408		52.17%		12,283
	Howard		3,246		72.57%		1,158		25.89%		69		1.54%		2,088		46.68%		4,473
	Independence		11,023		78.67%		2,689		19.19%		299		2.13%		8,334		59.48%		14,011
	Izard		4,854		81.92%		949		16.02%		122		2.06%		3,905		65.90%		5,925
	Jackson		3,509		73.49%		1,183		24.77%		83		1.74%		2,326		48.72%		4,775
	Jefferson		8,468		39.19%		12,802		59.25%		338		1.56%		-4,334		-20.06%		21,608
	Johnson		6,766		74.69%		2,107		23.26%		186		2.05%		4,659		51.43%		9,059
	Lafayette		1,589		68.34%		698		30.02%		38		1.63%		891		38.32%		2,325
	Lawrence		4,608		80.96%		965		16.95%		119		2.09%		3,643		64.01%		5,692
	Lee		1,181		46.87%		1,270		50.40%		69		2.74%		-89		-3.53%		2,520
	Lincoln		2,502		74.20%		813		24.11%		57		1.69%		1,689		50.09%		3,372
	Little River		3,744		76.42%		1,084		22.13%		71		1.45%		2,660		54.29%		4,899
	Logan		6,567		80.04%		1,464		17.84%		174		2.12%		5,103		62.20%		8,205
	Lonoke		23,225		75.85%		6,790		22.18%		605		1.98%		16,435		53.67%		30,620
	Madison		5,885		78.46%		1,491		19.88%		125		1.67%		4,394		58.58%		7,501
	Marion		6,230		79.35%		1,501		19.12%		120		1.53%		4,729		60.23%		7,851
	Miller		11,842		74.94%		3,769		23.85%		192		1.21%		8,073		51.09%		15,803
	Mississippi		6,963		64.97%		3,574		33.35%		180		1.68%		3,389		31.62%		10,717
	Monroe		1,385		56.93%		1,002		41.18%		46		1.89%		383		15.75%		2,433
	Montgomery		2,987		80.58%		645		17.40%		75		2.02%		2,342		63.18%		3,707
	Nevada		2,002		68.87%		849		29.21%		56		1.93%		1,153		39.66%		2,907
	Newton		3,063		81.25%		644		17.08%		63		1.67%		2,419		64.17%		3,770
	Ouachita		5,056		58.61%		3,412		39.55%		158		1.83%		1,644		19.06%		8,626
	Perry		3,559		77.64%		923		20.14%		102		2.23%		2,636		57.50%		4,584
	Phillips		2,098		42.49%		2,754		55.77%		86		1.74%		-656		-13.28%		4,938
	Pike		3,746		85.96%		560		12.85%		52		1.19%		3,186		73.11%		4,358
	Poinsett		5,731		80.96%		1,235		17.45%		113		1.60%		4,496		63.51%		7,079
	Polk		6,987		84.30%		1,145		13.82%		156		1.88%		5,842		70.48%		8,288
	Pope		18,118		74.90%		5,487		22.68%		586		2.42%		12,631		52.22%		24,191
	Prairie		2,628		82.13%		524		16.38%		48		1.50%		2,104		65.75%		3,200
	Pulaski		57,977		37.67%		92,038		59.79%		3,909		2.54%		-34,061		-22.12%		153,924
	Randolph		5,367		80.88%		1,138		17.15%		131		1.97%		4,229		63.73%		6,636
	St. Francis		2,909		48.65%		2,953		49.39%		117		1.96%		-44		-0.74%		5,979
	Saline		39,736		68.98%		16,609		28.83%		1,264		2.19%		23,127		40.15%		57,609
	Scott		2,913		86.08%		425		12.56%		46		1.36%		2,488		73.42%		3,384
	Searcy		3,305		85.42%		511		13.21%		53		1.37%		2,794		72.21%		3,869
	Sebastian		30,719		67.59%		13,652		30.04%		1,081		2.38%		17,067		37.55%		45,452
	Sevier		3,772		80.02%		862		18.29%		80		1.70%		2,910		61.73%		4,714
	Sharp		5,978		80.38%		1,316		17.70%		143		1.92%		4,662		62.68%		7,437
	Stone		4,808		79.73%		1,089		18.06%		133		2.21%		3,719		61.67%		6,030
	Union		10,196		66.00%		5,019		32.49%		233		1.51%		5,177		33.51%		15,448
	Van Buren		6,023		79.03%		1,437		18.86%		161		2.11%		4,586		60.17%		7,621
	Washington		50,243		51.71%		43,779		45.06%		3,136		3.23%		6,464		6.65%		97,158
	White		24,514		79.50%		5,641		18.29%		682		2.21%		18,873		61.21%		30,837
	Woodruff		1,513		65.27%		760		32.79%		45		1.94%		753		32.48%		2,318
	Yell		5,147		79.47%		1,213		18.73%		117		1.81%		3,934		60.74%		6,477
Totals	759,241	64.20%	396,905	33.56%	26,530	2.24%	362,336	30.64%	1,182,676

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Desha (largest municipality: Dumas)

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.^[1]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
		71.71%	26.37%		Rick Crawford
		56.60%	40.99%		French Hill
		61.09%	36.18%		Steve Womack
		69.05%	29.11%		Bruce Westerman

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arkansas
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2024 Pres by CD .