2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee should not be confused with 2024 Tennessee Senate election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee |
| Country: | Tennessee |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Tennessee |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) official headshot - 116th Congress (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Marsha Blackburn |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,918,743 |
| Percentage1: | 63.80% |
| Nominee2: | Gloria Johnson |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,027,461 |
| Percentage2: | 34.16% |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Marsha Blackburn |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Marsha Blackburn |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn significantly improved on her performance from 2018.
The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.[1]
Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Madison, Shelby, and Washington. She also outperformed Trump in Haywood County—a county he lost and where she had also previously lost—but this time, she managed to flip it.
Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race.[2]
At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.
Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.
| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | $36,054 | $35,691 | $364 | |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,046,183 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marquita Bradshaw | Gloria Johnson | Civil Miller-Watkins | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 282 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 7% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 52% | |||
| Targoz Market Research | December 14–28, 2023 | 251 (LV) | ± 2.66% | 11% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 45% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[9] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[10] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | June 8, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily[13] | May 4, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[14] | November 21, 2023 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[15] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Split Ticket[16] | October 23, 2024 | ||
| 538[17] | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 | |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,069,008 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18] | ||||
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Gloria Johnson (D) | Undecided | Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538 | through October 28, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | 55.0% | 35.7% | 9.3% | Blackburn +19.3 | |||
| RCP | October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024 | September 9, 2024 | 50.5% | 33.0% | 16.5% | Blackburn +17.5 | |||
| TheHill/DDHQ | through October 28, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | 59.4% | 36.5% | 4.1% | Blackburn +22.9% | |||
| Average | 55.0% | 35.1% | 9.9% | Blackburn +19.9% | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Gloria Johnson (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | October 7–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – | ||
| ActiVote | September 14 – October 18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – | ||
| Targoz Market Research | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,159 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 29% | 18% | ||
| 971 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | ||||
| ActiVote | July 25 – September 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – | ||
| Targoz Market Research | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 49% | 32% | 19% | ||
| 944 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 32% | 16% | ||||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% | ||
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 955 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 45% | 29% | 26% | ||
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Marquita Bradshaw (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 51% | 33% | 17% | ||
| 942 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 33% | 14% | ||||
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 46% | 22% | 32% | ||
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 48% | 36% | 17% |