2024 United States Senate election in Nevada explained

Election Name:2024 United States Senate election in Nevada
Country:Nevada
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2030 United States Senate election in Nevada
Next Year:2030
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Last Update:Nov. 16, 5:29 PM
Image1:File:Senator Jacky Rosen Official Portrait (2022) (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Jacky Rosen
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:701,105
Percentage1:47.87%
Nominee2:Sam Brown
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:677,046
Percentage2:46.22%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jacky Rosen
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jacky Rosen
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Sam Brown.[1] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Nevada on the same ballot. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024.[2]

Background

A typical swing state, Nevada is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Nevada by about two percentage points. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one seat in its congressional delegation, while Republicans flipped the governorship and lieutenant governorship in 2022.[3] [4] [5]

As of 2024, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. This race was considered to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings showed Rosen to be the favorite to win.[6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jacky Rosen (D)$27,387,983$17,316,743$10,249,429
Troy Walker (D)$705$675$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Sam
Brown		Tony
Grady		Jeff
Gunter		Jim
Marchant		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive InsightsJune 4–5, 2024424 (LV)± 4.8%50%4%15%8%12%12%
Kaplan StrategiesMay 30, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%30%4%31%7%1%27%
Tarrance GroupMay 13–16, 2024500 (LV)± 4.5%52%–14%7%–27%
Tarrance GroupApril 7–10, 2024500 (LV)± 4.5%58%3%3%6%–29%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 27 – March 5, 2024296 (RV)± 5.7%39%––26%–35%
Tarrance GroupOctober 23–26, 2023600 (LV)± 4.1%24%5%1%9%–41%
Public Opinion StrategiesAugust 15–17, 2023500 (LV)± 4.38%33%2%1%15%3%44%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Sam Brown (R)$7,084,690$4,605,289$2,479,400
William Conrad (R)$12,476$7,098$9,161
Tony Grady Jr. (R)$278,061$255,593$22,467
Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R)$3,317,546$2,980,286$337,260
Ronda Kennedy (R)$27,786$18,620$9,165
Barry Lindemann (R)$64,106$63,947$2,783
Jim Marchant (R)$434,323$374,665$59,657
Stephanie Phillips (R)$82,761$81,427$1,333
Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

Fundraising

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[21] August 15, 2024
align=left Inside Elections[22] October 18, 2024
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] November 9, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] October 3, 2024
align=left Elections Daily[25] October 9, 2024
align=left CNalysis[26] November 4, 2024
align=left RealClearPolitics[27] October 18, 2024
Split Ticket[28] October 23, 2024
538[29] October 23, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jacky Rosen (D)$46,500,385$44,212,365$2,466,209
Sam Brown (R)$20,000,962$17,751,273$2,249,688
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jacky
Rosen (D)		Sam
Brown (R)		Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.2%43.4%7.4%Rosen +5.8%
RealClearPoliticsOctober 24 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.8%43.9%7.3%Rosen +4.9%
270toWinOctober 22 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.7%44.2%7.1%Rosen +4.5%
TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%44.7%6.7%Rosen +3.9%
Average48.8%44.1%7.1%Rosen+4.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jacky
Rosen (D)		Sam
Brown (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024707 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%4%5%
Patriot Polling (R)November 1–3, 2024792 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
AtlasIntelNovember 1–2, 2024782 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%5%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024840 (LV)± 3.3%50%44%3%3%
NYT/Siena CollegeOctober 24 – November 2, 20241,010 (LV)± 3.6%52%43%–5%
1,010 (RV)± 3.4%52%40%–8%
Emerson CollegeOctober 29–31, 2024700 (LV)± 3.6%49%45%2%4%
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 28–31, 2024593 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%5%2%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)October 28–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%47%5%2%
YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024753 (LV)± 4.6%51%44%–5%
AtlasIntelOctober 27–30, 2024845 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%5%3%
Data for Progress (D)October 25–30, 2024721 (LV)± 4.0%49%42%4%4%
AtlasIntelOctober 25–29, 20241,083 (LV)± 3.0%49%44%4%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%3%6%
CNN/SRSSOctober 21–26, 2024683 (LV)± 4.6%50%41%8%1%
OnMessage Inc. (R)October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%2%3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%4%4%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 16–18, 2024529 (LV)± 3.9%48%41%4%6%
AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,171 (LV)± 3.0%47%43%3%6%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)		October 8–15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%44%4%3%
Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 2024496 (LV)± 4.0%52%37%–6%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 2024838 (LV)± 3.1%46%41%5%7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 10–13, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%48%43%3%6%
Emerson CollegeOctober 5–8, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%50%42%3%5%
RMG ResearchSeptember 30 – October 3, 2024782 (LV)± 3.5%56%40%1%4%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 2024514 (LV)± 4.0%48%41%5%7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%42%2%7%
AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024858 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%3%3%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–52%38%4%6%
53%40%–7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19–22, 2024738 (LV)± 3.0%50%40%4%7%
Remington Research Group (R)September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%–12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-09-23" September 16–19, 2024652 (LV)± 3.5%47%38%4%11%
The Tarrance Group (R)September 16–19, 2024600 (LV)± 4.1%48%41%4%6%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 15–18, 2024895 (LV)± 3.2%48%41%3%9%
Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 2024474 (LV)± 5.0%52%39%–9%
Noble Predictive InsightsSeptember 9–16, 2024692 (LV)± 3.7%53%38%–9%
50%36%6%7%
812 (RV)± 3.4%52%34%–15%
49%33%8%10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 11–13, 20241,079 (LV)± 2.9%48%40%7%4%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024698 (LV)± 4.1%47%39%5%9%
Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024516 (LV)± 4.0%50%40%–10%
YouGovAugust 23 – September 3, 2024800 (RV)± 4.7%51%39%–10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%39%2%10%
CNN/SRSSAugust 23–29, 2024626 (LV)± 4.9%50%40%9%1%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 25–28, 2024490 (LV)± 4.1%43%39%4%14%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-08-29" August 25–28, 20241,168 (LV)± 2.8%50%40%4%6%
Fox NewsAugust 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%55%41%3%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 12–15, 2024536 (LV)± 3.9%41%37%5%19%
NYT/Siena CollegeAugust 12–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.2%48%37%–15%
677 (LV)± 4.4%49%40%–11%
Strategies 360August 7–14, 2024350 (RV)± 5.2%50%38%5%6%
Providence PollingAugust 3–5, 2024991 (LV)± 3.0%52%40%9%–
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-08-06" July 31 – August 3, 2024470 (LV)± 4.16%41%38%3%19%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" July 26 – August 2, 2024403 (LV)–54%36%–10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 2024435 (LV)± 4.14%45%40%3%10%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential election
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 16–18, 2024412 (LV)–41%37%4% 16%
YouGovJuly 4–12, 2024800 (RV)± 4.7%47%40%1%11%
731 (LV)–47%41%1%10%
Remington Research Group (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 29 – July 1, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%–6%
National Public Affairsdata-sort-value="2024-07-03" June 28 – July 1, 2024817 (LV)± 3.4%41%33%8%18%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%38%–13%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)		data-sort-value="2024-06-25" June 12–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
June 11, 2024Primary elections held
The Tyson Groupdata-sort-value="2024-05-28" May 22–25, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%47%33%4%16%
Mainstreet Research/FAUMay 19–21, 2024522 (RV)± 4.3%48%35%8%9%
494 (LV)± 4.3%48%37%7%8%
NYT/Siena CollegeApril 28 – May 9, 2024614 (RV)± 4.0%40%38%–22%
614 (LV)± 4.0%41%41%–18%
Emerson CollegeApril 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%37%–18%
Emerson CollegeMarch 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%39%–21%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%41%35%–24%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%38%–22%
Change Research (D)December 3–7, 20232,532 (V)–39%38%0%23%
Tarrance Group (R)October 23–26, 2023600 (LV)± 4.1%45%40%5%10%
Jacky Rosen vs. Jim Marchant
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jacky
Rosen (D)		Jim
Marchant (R)		OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeMarch 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%34%–22%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%43%34%–23%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%36%–22%
Jacky Rosen vs. Jeff Gunter
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jacky
Rosen (D)		Jeff
Gunter (R)		OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeApril 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%33%–21%
Emerson CollegeMarch 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%34%–23%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%32%–25%

Results

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Democratic US Sen. Jacky Rosen is reelected in Nevada, securing battleground seat. Nicholas. Riccardi. Rio. Yamat. Associated Press. November 9, 2024. November 9, 2024.
  2. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-08-06 . www.ncsl.org.
  3. Web site: Edelman . Adam . November 11, 2022 . Republican Joe Lombardo has won the race for governor in Nevada, defeating Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak . 2023-03-14 . NBC News . en.
  4. Web site: Sonner . Scott . November 11, 2022 . Nevada Democrats Sweep 3 Key House Seats in Close Battles . March 14, 2022 . en.
  5. News: Anguiano . Dani . 2022-11-13 . Catherine Cortez Masto wins Nevada Senate race to hold Democratic seat . en-GB . The Guardian . 2023-03-14 . 0261-3077.
  6. Web site: Coleman . J. Miles . The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms – Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 27, 2022 . 2023-02-25 . en-US.
  7. Web site: Rosen announces re-election bid for U.S. Senate, touts bipartisan record. April 5, 2023.
  8. News: Birenbaum, Gabby . March 19, 2024 . Why is an elected official in California running for Nevada's Senate seat?. . March 19, 2024 .
  9. News: Certified Candidate List . Nevada Secretary of State . March 4, 2024.
  10. News: Retired Army Captain Sam Brown launches second run for Nevada Senate . 2023-07-10 . The Hill . Vakil . Caroline.
  11. Web site: Former ambassador, others enter Nevada's crowded GOP race for Senate . 2023-08-12 . reviewjournal.com. August 7, 2023 .
  12. Web site: Haas . Greg . Tony Grady announces Republican U.S. Senate bid, joining 3 other candidates in race for Rosen's seat . . 8 August 2023.
  13. News: . 7 August 2023 . Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was Trump's ambassador to Iceland, is running for Nevada Senate. 7 August 2023 .
  14. News: EIN News . 22 August 2023 . Senate candidate Barry Lindemann finds common ground with Nevada Republicans. 21 August 2023 .
  15. News: Ritter . Ken . Cooper . Johnathan . Jim Marchant to run for Senate in Nevada . 2 May 2023 . KOLO . 2 May 2023.
  16. Web site: Rosen announces 2024 election plans with few Republican challengers so far. April 5, 2023. Hill, Jessica . Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  17. Web site: Birenbaum . Gabby . March 2, 2023 . Amodei says he won't run for Senate in 2024 . March 2, 2023 . The Nevada Independent.
  18. Web site: Haas . Greg . April Becker announces run for County Commission seat held by Ross Miller . . 23 May 2023.
  19. News: Solis . Jacob . 1 August 2023 . 1 August 2023 . The Nevada Independent . GOP Senate leader Heidi Seevers Gansert won't run for re-election in 2024.
  20. News: 7 possible Republicans who may run against Jacky Rosen . 9 March 2023 . 10 March 2023 . Hill, Jessica . Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  21. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
  22. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
  23. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  24. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . June 8, 2024.
  25. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
  26. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.
  27. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2024 . August 5, 2024 . . en-US.
  28. Web site: 2024 Senate Forecast . Split Ticket . May 25, 2023 . 23 October 2024.
  29. Web site: 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . 23 October 2024.
  30. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Nevada . fec.gov . . August 4, 2024.

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