2024 United States Senate election in Montana explained

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Sheehy's victory gave Republicans control of both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.^[2] Although Tester outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 12.8 points, which was the strongest overperformance of any Democratic Senate candidate, it was still not enough to win.^[3]

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. Tester's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.^[4]

Background

Montana has generally been considered a red state at the federal executive level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Republicans have also won all of the state's U.S. House elections since 1996. Within this time frame, Democrats have been more successful in elections for state offices and the U.S. Senate, with its governorship, state legislature, and Senate seats alternating between Democratic and Republican control. Leading up to the 2024 election, Republicans controlled both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and had supermajority control of both houses of the state legislature.

Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy had since gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting. He has refused to endorse fellow Democrat Kamala Harris for president, a contributing factor towards the Senate race not being nationalized. In 2012, the last election that featured Tester on the same ballot as the presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won by 13.64%, while Tester won by 3.72% without receiving a majority (50%) of the vote.^{[5] [6] [7] [8]}

In October 2024, total campaign spending for both sides, much of it coming from out-of-state dark money groups, was on track to be $487 for each voter in Montana, making it the most expensive congressional campaign as measured per capita in U.S. history, with Democrats outspending Republicans by $50 million.^[9]

Top-two primary proposal

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."^{[10] [11]}

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.^[12] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.^[13] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.^[14]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)^[15]

Eliminated in primary

• Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor^[16]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tim Sheehy, founder and former CEO of Bridger Aerospace^[18]

Eliminated in primary

• Brad Johnson, former chair of the Montana Public Service Commission (2015–2023) and former Montana Secretary of State (2005–2009)^[19]
• Charles Walkingchild Sr., environmental contractor and candidate for in 2022

Withdrew

• Jeremy Mygland, construction company owner (endorsed Rosendale, ran for state senate)^[20]
• Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (endorsed Sheehy)^[21]

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present) (endorsed Sheehy, ran for re-election)^[22]
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) (endorsed Sheehy, ran for re-election)^{[23] [24]}

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
	Brad Johnson (R)	$42,967	$39,697	$3,270
	Tim Sheehy (R)	$10,547,437	$8,324,164	$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brad Johnson	Matt Rosendale	Tim Sheehy	Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R)	November 12–14, 2023	888 (LV)	± 3.28%	–	24%		40%	36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	October 23–25, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	6%	35%		38%	21%
				0%	41%		44%	15%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	418 (LV)	?	–		52%	21%	28%
Public Policy Polling (D)	June 19–20, 2023	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	–		64%	10%	26%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Sid Daoud, Kalispell city councilor and chair of the Montana Libertarian Party^[25]

Green primary

Candidates

Withdrew after nomination

• Michael Downey, drought program coordinator

Replacement nominee

• Robert Barb, nominee for governor in 2020^[26]

Aftermath

Michael Downey, the winner of the Green Party primary election, dropped out of the race on August 12, citing the possibility that he might be a spoiler candidate in a close race.^[27] The Green Party of Montana selected the runner-up, Robert Barb, to replace Downey. The Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that the Montana Green Party did not follow its procedure for designating a replacement candidate and asking for Barb to be removed from the ballot.^[28] Kathy Seeley, the district court judge hearing the case, denied the request. The Montana Democratic Party appealed to the Montana Supreme Court, but the justices refused to take the case.^[29]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[30]		September 12, 2024
align=left	Inside Elections[31]		September 12, 2024
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[32]		September 6, 2024
align=left	Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[33]		October 20, 2024
align=left	Elections Daily[34]		August 9, 2024
align=left	CNalysis[35]		November 4, 2024
align=left	RealClearPolitics[36]		September 12, 2024
Split Ticket[37]		October 23, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
	Jon Tester (D)	$88,163,151	$84,499,372	$4,144,352
	Tim Sheehy (R)	$26,161,679	$22,284,629	$3,877,050
Source: Federal Election Commission

Debates

Dates	Host	Tester	Sheehy	Link
June 10, 2024	Montana Broadcasters Association	Participant	Participant	align=left	YouTube
September 30, 2024	Montana PBS	Participant	Participant	align=left	YouTube

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Tim Sheehy (R)	Jon Tester (D)	Undecided	Margin
RealClearPolitics	October 5 - November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024		50.7%	43.0%	6.3%		Sheehy +7.7
538	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024		49.7%	42.7%	7.6%		Sheehy +7.0%
270toWin	October 10–27, 2024	November 4, 2024		51.0%	45.0%	4.0%		Sheehy +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024		50.0%	43.1%	6.9%		Sheehy +6.9%
Average				50.4%	43.5%	6.1%		Sheehy +6.9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Tim Sheehy (R)	Other	Undecided
AtlasIntel	November 1–4, 2024	752 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%		50%	5%	6%
Emerson College	October 23–25, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%		51%	2%	–
				46%		50%	2%	3%
MSU Billings	September 30 – October 16, 2024	760 (LV)	± 3.6%	43%	43%	6%	8%
NYT/Siena College	October 5–8, 2024	656 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%		52%	–	4%
		656 (RV)		44%		51%	–	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	September 29 – October 1, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%		51%	2%	2%
Remington Research Group (R)	September 16–20, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%		52%	–	4%
RMG Research	September 12–19, 2024	491 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%		50%	2%	4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)	August 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%		51%	–	4%
41%					49%	5%	5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	August 18–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%		51%	3%	2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	data-sort-value="2024-08-15"	August 13–20, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.0%	43%		50%	–	7%
RMG Research	data-sort-value="2024-08-15"	August 6–14, 2024	540 (RV)	± 4.2%		49%	44%	2%	4%
American Pulse Research & Polling	data-sort-value="2024-08-12"	August 10–12, 2024	538 (RV)	± 4.2%	45%		51%	–	4%
Emerson College	data-sort-value="2024-08-08"	August 5–6, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%		48%	–	5%
Expedition Strategies	data-sort-value="2024-10-21"	June 24 – July 8, 2024	251 (LV)	–	47%		48%	–	4%
Remington Research Group (R)	data-sort-value="2024-06-20"	June 29 – July 1, 2024	570 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%		50%	–	5%
Torchlight Strategies (R)	June 22–26, 2024	649 (RV)	± 3.9%	41%		47%	5%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	June 11–13, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	4%	4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)	June 3–5, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	48%	–	4%
43%					46%	4%	7%
J.L. Partners	March 26–29, 2024	503 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%		48%	–	7%
Emerson College	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%		44%	42%	–	14%
SurveyUSA	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%		49%	40%	3%	7%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	447 (RV)	± 4.6%		39%	35%	6%	21%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	42%		46%	–	12%

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%		49%	40%	4%	7%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	?	43%		46%	–	11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)	February 18–21, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%		46%	5%	7%
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%		45%	40%	–	15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cascade (largest city: Great Falls)
• Lake (largest city: Polson)

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana^[38]

County	Tim Sheehy Republican		Jon Tester Democratic		Sid Daoud Libertarian		Robert Barb Green		TotalVotes
		%		%		%		%
	Beaverhead	3,707	63.45%	2,024	34.65%	67	1.15%	43	0.74%	5,841
	Big Horn	1,580	35.48%	2,805	62.99%	42	0.94%	26	0.58%	4,453
	Blaine	1,192	38.99%	1,814	59.34%	29	0.95%	22	0.72%	3,057
	Broadwater	3,503	72.35%	1,219	25.18%	82	1.69%	38	0.78%	4,842
	Carbon	4,459	60.35%	2,794	37.82%	95	1.29%	40	0.54%	7,388
	Carter	732	85.71%	109	12.76%	7	0.82%	6	0.70%	854
	Cascade	19,808	52.30%	17,323	45.73%	462	1.22%	284	0.75%	37,877
	Chouteau	1,643	55.49%	1,274	43.03%	25	0.84%	19	0.64%	2,961
	Custer	3,818	65.60%	1,855	31.87%	81	1.39%	66	1.13%	5,820
	Daniels	719	75.37%	220	23.06%	8	0.84%	7	0.73%	954
	Dawson	3,269	70.26%	1,259	27.06%	69	1.48%	56	1.20%	4,653
	Deer Lodge	1,820	37.07%	2,991	60.92%	62	1.26%	37	0.75%	4,910
	Fallon	1,200	80.27%	256	17.12%	30	2.01%	9	0.60%	1,495
	Fergus	4,749	70.22%	1,910	28.24%	63	0.93%	41	0.61%	6,763
	Flathead	38,582	60.72%	23,647	37.21%	974	1.53%	339	0.53%	63,542
	Gallatin	30,537	43.28%	39,094	55.41%	646	0.92%	278	0.39%	70,555
	Garfield	720	90.45%	68	8.54%	5	0.63%	5	0.63%	796
	Glacier	1,426	27.78%	3,638	70.86%	40	0.78%	30	0.58%	5,134
	Golden Valley	422	81.15%	91	17.50%	5	0.96%	2	0.38%	520
	Granite	1,377	63.02%	778	35.60%	19	0.87%	11	0.50%	2,185
	Hill	3,217	47.09%	3,438	50.32%	109	1.60%	68	1.00%	6,832
	Jefferson	5,108	61.15%	3,099	37.10%	97	1.16%	49	0.59%	8,353
	Judith Basin	991	72.87%	352	25.88%	12	0.88%	5	0.37%	1,360
	Lake	8,881	52.26%	7,798	45.89%	200	1.18%	114	0.67%	16,993
	Lewis and Clark	19,367	45.69%	22,175	52.31%	527	1.24%	320	0.75%	42,389
	Liberty	683	68.16%	307	30.64%	7	0.70%	5	0.50%	1,002
	Lincoln	8,291	70.15%	3,287	27.81%	160	1.35%	81	0.69%	11,819
	Madison	4,388	67.36%	2,025	31.09%	69	1.06%	32	0.49%	6,514
	McCone	890	82.03%	173	15.94%	13	1.20%	9	0.83%	1,085
	Meagher	845	71.61%	309	26.19%	16	1.36%	10	0.85%	1,180
	Mineral	1,831	64.27%	950	33.35%	45	1.58%	23	0.81%	2,849
	Missoula	23,743	32.36%	48,429	66.00%	751	1.02%	449	0.61%	73,372
	Musselshell	2,408	80.13%	536	17.84%	43	1.43%	18	0.60%	3,005
	Park	5,614	47.51%	6,009	50.85%	133	1.13%	60	0.51%	11,816
	Petroleum	274	83.54%	50	15.24%	4	1.22%	0	0.00%	328
	Phillips	1,678	76.27%	490	22.27%	17	0.77%	15	0.68%	2,200
	Pondera	1,804	62.94%	1,017	35.48%	25	0.87%	20	0.70%	2,866
	Powder River	886	79.82%	205	18.45%	16	1.44%	3	0.27%	1,110
	Powell	2,160	65.43%	1,065	32.26%	50	1.51%	26	0.79%	3,301
	Prairie	489	70.56%	180	25.97%	14	2.02%	10	1.44%	693
	Ravalli	19,116	63.62%	10,449	34.78%	322	1.07%	160	0.53%	30,047
	Richland	3,914	73.85%	1,238	23.36%	89	1.68%	59	1.11%	5,300
	Roosevelt	1,636	41.33%	2,249	56.82%	36	0.91%	37	0.93%	3,958
	Rosebud	2,208	59.29%	1,435	38.53%	49	1.32%	32	0.86%	3,724
	Sanders	5,663	69.86%	2,241	27.65%	121	1.49%	81	1.00%	8,106
	Sheridan	1,159	61.10%	685	36.11%	28	1.48%	25	1.32%	1,897
	Silver Bow	6,232	33.84%	11,854	64.36%	191	1.0%	141	0.77%	18,418
	Stillwater	4,473	75.40%	1,352	22.79%	65	1.10%	42	0.71%	5,932
	Sweet Grass	1,685	70.15%	665	27.69%	33	1.37%	19	0.79%	2,402
	Teton	2,323	64.42%	1,216	33.72%	43	1.19%	24	0.67%	3,606
	Toole	1,436	70.25%	558	27.30%	29	1.42%	21	1.03%	2,044
	Treasure	336	75.17%	101	22.60%	8	1.79%	2	0.45%	447
	Valley	2,672	65.28%	1,307	31.93%	67	1.64%	47	1.14%	4,093
	Wheatland	792	72.93%	278	25.60%	10	0.92%	6	0.55%	1,086
	Wibaux	414	75.27%	121	22.00%	11	2.00%	4	0.73%	550
	Yellowstone	46,812	57.10%	33,493	40.85%	1,051	1.28%	629	0.77%	81,985

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Robert Barb (G) for Senate
• Sid Daoud (L) for Senate
• Tim Sheehy (R) for Senate
• Jon Tester (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2024 General Election - November 5, 2024. Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. en.
2. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-08-06 . www.ncsl.org.
3. Web site: Silver . Nate . Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate . 2024-11-29 . www.natesilver.net . en.
4. Web site: Everett. Burgess. GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal. August 2, 2022. Politico. November 8, 2024.
5. News: Yokley . Eli . Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024 . April 27, 2023 . . April 19, 2023.
6. News: Coleman . J. Miles . The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting . April 27, 2023 . . July 11, 2024. .
7. News: Draeger . Jonathan. GOP Poised To Regain Senate Majority, Polls Indicate. July 13, 2024 . . April 19, 2023.
8. Web site: CARLY GRAF Lee Newspapers and. Associated Press . 2024-08-23 . On final day of the DNC, Tester says he won't endorse a candidate for president . 2024-09-28 . Bozeman Daily Chronicle . en.
9. Web site: Brown . Matthew . October 29, 2024 . Tester, Sheehy do battle in your mailbox . 2024-10-31 . Montana Free Press . en-US.
10. News: Arren . Kimbel-Sannit . April 3, 2023 . Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race.
11. Web site: Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester. April 5, 2023. AP News. August 6, 2023.
12. News: Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules. The New York Times . April 14, 2023 . Corasaniti . Nick .
13. News: Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary. Matthew . Brown . April 19, 2023 . Associated Press .
14. Web site: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3. Daily Kos. August 6, 2023. Singer, Jeff. The end of Montana’s legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later..
15. Web site: Concepcion . Summer . 2023-02-22 . Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024 . 2023-02-22 . . en.
16. Web site: FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List . 2024-03-12 . prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov.
17. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Montana . fec.gov . . August 11, 2023.
18. Web site: Warren . Bradley . 2023-06-27 . Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana . 2023-06-27 . KULR-8 Local News . en.
19. News: October 18, 2023 . . Rafferty . Melissa . October 18, 2023 . Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana.
20. News: . October 26, 2023 . October 19, 2023 . Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race . Ambarian . Jonathan . One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester..
21. Web site: Zanona . Melanie . 2024-03-08 . GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana says he is not running for reelection CNN Politics . 2024-03-08 . CNN . en.
22. Web site: The Hill . Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race . Carolin . Vakil . June 29, 2023 .
23. News: Warren. Bradley. Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate. Jul 5, 2023. Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement..
24. Web site: Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress. Corrin. Noah. Warren. Bradley. July 10, 2023. July 10, 2023. KTMF. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race..
25. News: Sagnor, Denali . November 14, 2023 . November 16, 2023 . . Kalispell Libertarian Sid Daoud Announces Third-Party Senate Run.
26. Web site: Lutey . Tom . Green Party candidate files to join U.S. Senate race . Montana Free Press . 2024-08-21 . 2024-08-23.
27. Web site: Lutey . Tom . 2024-08-21 . Green Party candidate files to join U.S. Senate race . 2024-11-05 . Montana Free Press . en-US . He told Montana Free Press last week that he didn’t want to be considered the spoiler in what’s expected to be a tight race between Tester and Sheehy..
28. Web site: Montana Democratic Party sues to keep Green Party off U.S. Senate ballot • Daily Montanan. Blair. Miller. August 26, 2024.
29. News: Montana Supreme Court denies Democratic Party's request for control of Green Party case.
30. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
31. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
32. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
33. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . July 11, 2024.
34. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
35. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.
36. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2024 . August 5, 2024 . . en-US.
37. Web site: 2024 Senate Forecast . Split Ticket . May 25, 2023 . 23 October 2024.
38. Web site: Montana Secretary of State. 2024-11-27. electionresults.mt.gov.