2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts explained

The 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 5, 2024. Democratic incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren successfully ran for a third term, securing 59.6% of the vote.^[1] Warren was challenged by Republican attorney John Deaton. Primary elections took place on September 3, 2024.^[2] This election marked the first time that Elizabeth Warren had lost Bristol County while running for the office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Elizabeth Warren, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)^[3]

Declined

• Jake Auchincloss, U.S. representative for (2021–present)^[4] (ran for re-election)^[5]
• Seth Moulton, U.S. representative for (2015–present) (ran for re-election)^[5]
• Ayanna Pressley, U.S. representative for (2019–present)^[6] (endorsed Warren, ran for re-election)^{[7] [5]}
• Michelle Wu, mayor of Boston (2021–present)^[6] (endorsed Warren)

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• John Deaton, attorney^[9]

Eliminated in primary

• Robert Antonellis, nutrition software company owner^[10] and self-professed conspiracy theorist ^[11]
• Ian Cain, president of the Quincy City Council^[12]

Declined

• Chris Doughty, manufacturing executive and candidate for governor in 2022^[13]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
	Robert Antonellis (R)	$43,352	$37,250	$9,667
	Ian Cain (R)	$361,115	$312,722	$48,393
	John Deaton (R)	$1,690,411	$715,642	$974,769
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Robert Antonellis	Ian Cain	John Deaton	Other	Undecided
YouGov	May 17–30, 2024	292 (A)	± 4.4%		19%	5%	15%	25%		36%
Suffolk University	April 16–20, 2024	99(LV)	± 4.4%		4%	2%		4%	1%		89%

Results

Workers Party primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Brandon Griffin^{[14] [15]}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

• Louis Marino, former Chelmsford town meeting representative^[16]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[17]		November 9, 2023
align=left	Inside Elections[18]		November 9, 2023
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]		November 9, 2023
align=left	Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20]		June 8, 2024
align=left	Elections Daily[21]		May 4, 2023
align=left	CNalysis[22]		November 21, 2023
align=left	RealClearPolitics[23]		August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[24]		October 23, 2024
538[25]		October 23, 2024

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Elizabeth Warren (D)	John Deaton (R)	Undecided	Margin
538	through November 2, 2024	November 3, 2024		57.0%	34.8%	8.2%		Warren +22.2%
RealClearPolitics	September 12 - October 26, 2024	November 3, 2024		56.5%	34.3%	9.2%		Warren +22.2%
270toWin	October 8 - November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024		57.5%	34.8%	7.7%		Warren +22.7%
TheHill/DDHQ	through November 2, 2024	November 3, 2024		58.4%	36.1%	5.5%		Warren +22.3%
Average				57.4%	35.0%	7.6%		Warren+22.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	John Deaton (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	October 29 – November 2, 2024	744 (LV)	± 3.6%		60%	37%	–	3%
MassINC Polling Group	October 29 – November 1, 2024	582 (LV)	± 4.9%		55%	33%	8%	4%
ActiVote	October 2–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%		63%	37%	–	–
Emerson College	October 24–26, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%		56%	36%	1%	7%
UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB	October 3–10, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.8%		56%	34%	3%	7%
Suffolk University	October 2–6, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%		59%	35%	–	6%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)	September 19–21, 2024	638 (LV)	–		53%	32%	–	15%
MassINC Polling Group	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.1%		56%	35%	3%	7%
University of New Hampshire	September 12–16, 2024	564 (LV)	± 4.1%		58%	32%	7%	3%
YouGov	May 17–30, 2023	700 (A)	± 4.4%		47%	24%	8%	21%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Robert Antonellis

Elizabeth Warren vs. Charlie Baker

Elizabeth Warren vs. Ian Cain

Elizabeth Warren vs. Jonathan Kraft

Elizabeth Warren vs. Aaron Packard

Elizabeth Warren vs. Karyn Polito

Results

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• John Deaton (R) for Senate
• Brandon James Griffin (WP) for Senate
• Elizabeth Warren (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: 2024-11-05 . Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election Results . 2024-11-15 . The New York Times . en-US . 0362-4331.
2. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-05-13 . www.ncsl.org.
3. Web site: Kamisar . Ben . Shabad . Rebecca . Vitali . Ali . 2023-01-20 . Democrats Kaine, Warren and Gillibrand are all running for re-election . 2023-02-22 . . en.
4. News: Rumor has it . February 9, 2023 . Kashinsky, Lisa . Politico.
5. Web site: Kashinsky . Lisa . N.H. Dems sort of back Biden . 2023-05-01 . POLITICO . April 26, 2023 . en.
6. Web site: Pressley for president?. Kashinsky, Lisa. October 14, 2022. October 14, 2022. Politico.
7. News: POLITICS: Elizabeth Warren announces Senate reelection bid . 2023-03-30 . en-US. 2023-03-27 . Quinn . Melissa . CBS News.
8. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Massachusetts . fec.gov . . August 11, 2023.
9. News: . February 2, 2024 . Crypto attorney launches Senate bid against Elizabeth Warren. February 20, 2024 . Kashinsky, Lisa . Garrity, Kelly .
10. News: Barnstable Broadside . July 2023 . 10 July 2023 . Senator Warren to Face Senate Race Competition. Brissette . Kristen .
11. Web site: Blandino . Peter . John Deaton beats Ian Cain, Bob Antonellis in straw poll in lead-up to Senate primary . 2024-11-15 . The Patriot Ledger . en-US.
12. News: Kashinsky . Lisa . 2024-04-24 . Ian Cain launches senate bid against Warren . 2024-04-24 . . en-US.
13. Web site: Kashinsky . Lisa . Gardner . Sophie . Garrity . Kelly . Republicans search for a standard-bearer . 2023-05-12 . 2023-05-12 . POLITICO . en.
14. News: Meet Elizabeth Warren's newest opponent for Senate, Socialist Brandon Griffin . . 2023-09-09.
15. Web site: Brandon James Griffin For US Senate . 2024-09-21 . Brandon James Griffin For US Senate.
16. News: Independent Political Report . September 18, 2023 . September 25, 2023 . Two Massachusetts Libertarian Candidates Will Not Appear on the Ballot. Evans . Jordan .
17. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
18. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
19. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
20. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . June 8, 2024.
21. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
22. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.
23. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2024 . August 5, 2024 . . en-US.
24. Web site: 2024 Senate Forecast . Split Ticket . 23 October 2024.
25. Web site: 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . 23 October 2024.