2024 United States Senate election in Arizona explained

Election Name:2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2030 United States Senate election in Arizona
Next Year:2030
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Image1:Ruben Gallego official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ruben Gallego
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,676,335
Percentage1:50.06%
Nominee2:Kari Lake
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,595,761
Percentage2:47.65%
Map Size:220px
U.S. senator
Before Election:Kyrsten Sinema
Before Party:Independent politician
After Election:Ruben Gallego
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.[1]

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the senate.[2] [1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win.[4] [5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.4 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting for Gallego and Trump. This marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona. This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

Gallego will also be Arizona's first Latino U.S. Senator.[6]

Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation.[7] [8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[10]

Democratic primary

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[11] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[12] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[13] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[14]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Gallego		Ruben
Gallego		Kathy
Hoffman		Regina
Romero		Kyrsten
Sinema		Greg
Stanton		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)January 21–24, 2022673 (LV)± 4.0%–74%––16%–10%
–66%––17%–17%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%–47%––24%–29%
––44%–24%–32%
––––25%47%28%
Data for Progress (D)October 8–10, 2021467 (LV)± 5.0%9%23%–9%19%13%26%
60%–––25%–15%
–62%––23%–15%
–––55%26%–19%
––––24%59%17%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kari Lake$10,352,741$8,290,053$2,062,687
Mark Lamb$2,059,130$1,795,730$263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 22–23, 2024438 (LV)± 4.65%49%38%7%2%
Noble Predictive InsightsMay 7–14, 2024364 (RV)± 5.14%46%21%9%25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)February 21–26, 2024469 (LV)± 3.0%55%26%7%12%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 6–13, 2024384 (RV)± 5.0%54%21%9%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Abe
Hamadeh		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters
Robson		Brian
Wright		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%–40%14%–10%–4%–33%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 2023667 (LV)± 3.7%–42%11%2%7%–2%–28%
J.L. PartnersApril 10–12, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%4%38%8%3%7%10%–2%29%

Results

Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[30] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party[31]

Eliminated in primary

  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[32]
  • Arturo Hernandez[21]

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Fundraising

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Elections Daily[34] October 9, 2024
align=left CNalysis[35] October 15, 2024
align=left RealClearPolitics[36] October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] September 6, 2024
Inside ElectionsOctober 10, 2024
The Cook Political ReportSeptember 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[38] September 20, 2024
Split Ticket[39] October 23, 2024
538[40] October 23, 2024

Post-primary fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D)$56,843,786$55,360,823$2,759,538
Kari Lake (R)$21,396,539$18,239,291$3,157,247
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.3%5.3%Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPoliticsOctober 20 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.8%45.6%5.4%Gallego +3.2%
270toWinOctober 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.5%44.3%6.2%Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%45.8%4.9%Gallego +3.5%
Average49.3%45.3%5.4%Gallego +4.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024875 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2%2%
Victory Insights (R)November 2–3, 2024750 (LV)–50%47%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)November 1–3, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%49%49%–2%
Patriot Polling (R)November 1-3, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%3%
AtlasIntelNovember 1–2, 2024967 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%50%45%–5%
NYT/Siena CollegeOctober 25 – November 2, 20241,025 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%–4%
1,025 (RV)± 3.4%51%43%–6%
Morning ConsultOctober 23 – November 1, 2024666 (LV)± 4.0%50%42%–8%
AtlasIntelOctober 30–31, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%2%1%
OnMessage (R)October 29-31, 2024800 (LV)–48%48%–4%
YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024856 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%–6%
880 (RV)49%44%–7%
ActiVoteOctober 5–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 28–30, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%4%3%
Data for Progress (D)October 25–30, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.0%50%45%2%4%
AtlasIntelOctober 25–29, 20241,458 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2%2%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOctober 28, 2024610 (LV)± 3.968%50%46%3%5%
50%47%–3%
Data Orbital (R)October 26–28, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%45%45%5%6%
RABA ResearchOctober 25–27, 2024589 (RV)± 4.0%49%34%8%9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 24–26, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%–4%
CNN/SRSSOctober 21–26, 2024781 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%6%1%
Marist CollegeOctober 17–22, 20241,193 (LV)± 3.7%53%45%–2%
1,329 (RV)± 3.5%53%45%–1%
HighGround Public AffairsOctober 19–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%42%2%4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%1%3%
University of ArizonaOctober 12–20, 2024846(RV)± 3.37%51%36%2%11%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 16–18, 2024691 (LV)± 3.5%48%41%5%7%
AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,440 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%2%
CBS News/YouGovOctober 11–16, 20241,403 (LV)± 3.3%54%45%1%–
Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 2024653 (LV)± 3.0%52%40%3%5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 20241,141 (LV)± 2.7%47%42%4%7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 10–13, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%3%6%
NYT/Siena CollegeOctober 7–10, 2024808 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%–10%
808 (RV)± 3.8%48%39%–12%
ActiVoteSeptember 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
Emerson CollegeOctober 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%–7%
SoCal Strategies (R)October 5–7, 2024735 (LV)–51%39%–10%
RMG ResearchSeptember 30 – October 2, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%1%5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 2024555 (LV)± 3.9%48%42%3%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)		September 24 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%1%4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%1%6%
HighGround Public AffairsSeptember 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%51%41%2%5%
National Research Inc.September 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%2%8%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 27–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.2%52%41%–7%
AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024946 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–51%39%4%6%
54%41%–5%
Fox NewsSeptember 20–24, 2024764 (LV)± 3.5%55%42%1%1%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%56%42%1%1%
Suffolk Universitydata-sort-value="2024-09-23" September 19–24, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%5%8%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–24, 20241,264 (LV)± 3.8%54%44%–1%
1,416 (RV)± 3.6%53%44%–2%
NYT/Siena CollegeSeptember 17–21, 2024713 (LV)± 4.1%49%43%–8%
713 (RV)± 4.1%50%41%–9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-09-23" September 16–19, 2024789 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%3%9%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 15–18, 2024868 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%–10%
Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 2024862 (LV)± 3.0%53%39%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 11–12, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%47%43%4%5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024765 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%2%8%
Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%3%7%
YouGovAugust 23 – September 3, 2024900 (RV)± 4.2%50%42%–9%
InsiderAdvantage (R)August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2%4%
University of ArizonaAugust 28–31, 20241,155 (RV)–47%36%4%13%
CNN/SRSSAugust 23–29, 2024682 (LV)± 4.7%47%44%8%–
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 25–28, 2024530 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%3%17%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-08-29" August 25–28, 2024720 (LV)± 3.6%49%42%–9%
Fox NewsAugust 23–26, 20241,014 (RV)± 3.0%56%41%2%1%
Noble Predictive InsightsAugust 12–16, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%47%40%–13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 12–15, 2024592 (LV)± 3.7%44%39%4%13%
NYT/Siena CollegeAugust 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.1%49%41%–10%
677 (LV)± 4.4%51%42%–8%
WPA Intelligence (R)August 11–13, 2014600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%3%3%
Peak Insights (R)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" July 31 – August 5, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%46%46%–8%
HighGround Public Affairsdata-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%3%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-08-06" July 31 – August 3, 2024567 (LV)± 3.8%42%36%–22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" July 26 – August 2, 2024435 (LV)–51%42%–7%
July 30, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%46%42%–12%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)July 19–20, 2014736 (RV)–49%42%–9%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–50%47%–4%
J.L. Partners (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-17" July 10–11, 2024513 (LV)± 4.3%43%44%–3%
YouGovJuly 4–12, 2024900 (RV)± 3.9%48%41%2%9%
793 (LV)–49%42%2%8%
Expedition Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-10-21" June 24 – July 8, 2024268 (LV)–49%45%–7%
Remington Research Group (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 29 – July 1, 2024638 (LV)–47%47%–6%
North Star Opinion Research (R)June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%9%13%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%41%–14%
Rasmussen Reports (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-14" June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%44%41%–15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)		data-sort-value="2024-06-12" May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%–7%
Mainstreet Research/FAUMay 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%44%38%–18%
501 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%–13%
CBS News/YouGovdata-sort-value="2024-05-19" May 10–16, 20241,214 (RV)± 3.5%49%36%–15%
Noble Predictive Insightsdata-sort-value="2024-05-21" May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%46%36%–18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%46%41%–13%
NYT/Siena CollegeApril 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%45%41%–14%
626 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
Data Orbital (R)April 27–29, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%48%44%–8%
Emerson CollegeApril 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%43%–12%
RABA Researchdata-sort-value="2024-04-01" April 9, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%28%13%23%
Emerson CollegeMarch 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%–16%
March 5, 2024Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R)February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%45%–13%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%–15%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%47%37%–16%
J.L. Partners (R)January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–44%46%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%45%46%–9%
Cygnal (R)October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)October 24, 2023–± 4.4%49%44%–7%
National Research Inc. (R)October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%44%44%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%45%35%–20%
OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%33%–24%
Normington Petts (D)January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%–5%
Public Policy Polling (D)December 21, 2022650 (V)± 3.8%48%47%–5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%33%37%21%2%7%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%30%21%–13%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%34%31%23%–12%
J.L. Partners (R)January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–39%40%13%–8%
Public Policy Polling (D)January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%36%35%17%–12%
VCreek/AMG (R)data-sort-value="2023-12-19" December 1–8, 2023694 (LV)± 3.7%35%41%16%1%7%
Tulchin Research (D)November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%39%34%17%6%4%
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%39%33%29%––
Cygnal (R)October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%36%37%15%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)October 24, 2023–± 4.4%41%37%17%–5%
National Research Inc. (R)October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%33%37%19%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%36%15%–8%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%34%25%26%–15%
Public Policy Polling (D)April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–42%35%14%–9%
OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%34%26%19%–21%
Normington Petts (D)January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%36%36%24%––
Blueprint Polling (D)January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%32%36%14%–19%
Public Policy Polling (D)December 21, 2022678 (V)± 3.8%40%41%13%–6%
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Doug
Ducey (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%38%34%–28%
32%27%17%23%
Normington Petts (D)January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%37%31%27%5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Blake
Masters (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%31%17%11%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%44%36%–20%
32%24%28%16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%32%–26%
33%24%22%21%
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%–32%
31%24%21%25%
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Mark
Lamb (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%32%0%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%40%31%16%13%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%42%42%–16%
36%29%21%15%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%40%36%–24%
33%25%24%18%
Public Policy Polling (D)April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–43%33%15%9%
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Brian
Wright (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%–21%
37%25%26%12%

Results

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona.[41] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.

By congressional district

Gallego won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[42]

DistrictGallegoLakeRepresentative elected
52%47%David Schweikert
45%53%Eli Crane
73%24%Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
56%41%Greg Stanton
43%55%Andy Biggs
51%46%Juan Ciscomani
63%33%Raúl Grijalva
45%53%Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
38%60%Paul Gosar

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Raju . Manu . March 5, 2024 . Sinema announces she's retiring. March 5, 2024 . CNN . en.
  2. News: Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign . The Wall Street Journal . April 7, 2023 . Eliza . Collins. April 7, 2023.
  3. Web site: The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 . . July 20, 2024 .
  4. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
  5. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . January 25, 2023 . Cook Political Report . en.
  6. News: Cooper . Jonathan J. . Democrat Ruben Gallego wins Arizona US Senate race against Republican Kari Lake . November 12, 2024 . Associated Press . November 12, 2024.
  7. Web site: Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?. December 7, 2023. Los Angeles Times. Mark Z. . Barabak.
  8. How Did Arizona Turn Purple—and What's Next?. Steve. Phillips. December 1, 2022. The Nation.
  9. Web site: 2016 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona.
  10. Web site: Arizona certifies President-elect Biden's victory over President Trump. November 30, 2020. WBAL.
  11. Web site: Ryan O'Donnell . Gustavo Sanchez . Brian Burton . Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024 . October 14, 2021 . Data for Progress .
  12. News: Arizona Democrats have censured Kyrsten Sinema over her pro-filibuster vote . NPR . Treisman . Rachel. January 22, 2022.
  13. News: Zoë Richards . Frank Thorp V . Sahil Kapur . August 4, 2022 . Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage . CNBC . August 29, 2022.
  14. News: Kupar . Sahil . August 2, 2022 . Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill . NBC . August 29, 2022.
  15. News: Lah . Kate Sullivan,Kyung . January 23, 2023 . Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema . January 23, 2023 . CNN . en.
  16. News: Alexi McCammond . Eugene Scott . Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race . January 23, 2023 . Axios . Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat..
  17. News: January 19, 2023 . Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema. . Politico . en . January 20, 2023.
  18. News: Diamond Eye Candidate Report . Frisk . Garrett . July 21, 2023 . July 21, 2023 . We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said..
  19. News: Cathey. Libby. October 10, 2023. Kari Lake launches Arizona Senate campaign after narrow gubernatorial loss. ABC News. October 11, 2023.
  20. News: MacDonald-Evoy. Jerod. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters U.S. Senate race to challenge Kyrsten Sinema. April 11, 2023. Arizona Mirror. States Newsroom. October 16, 2023.
  21. News: March 30, 2024 . Candidate Nominations and Petitions filed . Arizona Secretary of State.
  22. News: March 26, 2023 . The Arizona Republic . Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know . https://archive.today/20230326145802/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2023/03/26/arizona-republicans-eye-2024-senate-race-from-the-sidelines/70046981007/ . March 26, 2023 . live . subscription . Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year. . Hansen, Ronald.
  23. News: Al Weaver . December 18, 2022 . Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list . The Hill . Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'.
  24. News: Manu Raju . Alayna Treene . Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run. . April 10, 2023 . Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence . CNN Politics .
  25. News: Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat . . October 17, 2023 . October 17, 2023.
  26. Web site: Collins . Eliza . August 30, 2023 . Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat . August 30, 2023 . . en-US.
  27. News: . October 26, 2023 . October 26, 2023 . Arizona Republican Blake Masters announces run for Debbie Lesko's 8th District seat. Gersony . Laura .
  28. Web site: Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona . . May 25, 2023.
  29. News: Otterbein . Holly . Everett . Burgess . Mutnick . Ally . Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again . February 1, 2023 . Politico . February 1, 2023 . One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told Politico she was not looking at another Senate bid.
  30. Web site: Candidates . Arizona Green Party . July 19, 2024.
  31. Web site: Green Party candidates for Senate in Arizona draw suspicion of being plants . gp.org.
  32. Web site: Arizona race for US Senate seat features highly watched battles . Daily Independent . April 17, 2024.
  33. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona . fec.gov . . August 11, 2023.
  34. Web site: August 1, 2023 . Election Ratings . August 2, 2023 . Elections Daily . en-US.
  35. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . October 15, 2024 . CNalysis . en-US.
  36. Web site: 2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego . August 5, 2024 . . en-US.
  37. Web site: April 17, 2023. April 17, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  38. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . June 8, 2024.
  39. Web site: 2024 Senate Forecast . Split Ticket . May 25, 2023 . October 23, 2024.
  40. Web site: 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . October 23, 2024.
  41. News: Vakil . Caroline . Gallego defeats Lake in Arizona Senate race . November 10, 2024 . . November 9, 2024.
  42. https://x.com/DrewSav/status/1861515922185338998

This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "2024 United States Senate election in Arizona".

Except where otherwise indicated, Everything.Explained.Today is © Copyright 2009-2025, A B Cryer, All Rights Reserved. Cookie policy.