2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland explained

The 2024 general election in Northern Ireland was held on 4 July 2024, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons contested. The general election occurred after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.

Background

Electoral system

MPs are elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.^[1]

Constituency boundaries

In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.^[2] Changes include:

• Belfast South became Belfast South and Mid Down, and incorporates some areas formerly part of Strangford or Lagan Valley.
• East Antrim now includes some areas that were previously in North Antrim.
• Foyle was reduced in size, with areas incorporated into the constituencies of West Tyrone and East Londonderry.
• Strangford was expanded to include large swathes of the eastern side of South Down.

Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.^[3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November^[4] and came into force on 29 November.^[5]

Campaign

In the run up to the election, there was speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts would be active in some constituencies.^[6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there was still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) would field candidates.^[7] The TUV leader Jim Allister said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it would support an “agreed single unionist candidate".^[8]

In North Down, there were calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.^[9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023.^[10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts".^[11] Alex Easton announced his independent Unionist candidacy for the seat.^[12]

In October 2023 the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland revealed that they intended to target Lagan Valley, seat of the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and required a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.^[13]

Amongst majority nationalist constituencies, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.^[14]

The campaign got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins said he was "very confident" of unseating Farry.^[15]

In January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim^[16] and announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley.^[17]

On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland.^[18] On 24 May they announced that they were supporting Alex Easton, the Independent Unionist candidate in North Down, and would not stand a candidate in that constituency.^[19]

The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Sen. Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they would stand in every constituency and would not pursue any electoral pacts.^[20]

On 7 May 2024, the UUP announced that 19 year-old Jay Basra, who is Punjabi-British, would be their candidate for Mid Ulster.^[21] Following the announcement, Basra was the target of racial abuse on social media. The abuse was condemned by UUP leader Doug Beattie and former First Minister Arlene Foster, as well as deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.^[22]

Jeffrey Donaldson, who was the DUP leader until March 2024, appeared in court on 3 July to face additional sex offence charges.^{[23] [24]}

Candidates

By affiliation

Affiliation		Number of candidates[25]
	Alliance Party of Northern Ireland	18
	Social Democratic and Labour Party	18
	Ulster Unionist Party	17
	Democratic Unionist Party	16
	Sinn Féin	14
	Traditional Unionist Voice	14
	Green Party Northern Ireland	11
	Aontú	10
	Independents	9
	Northern Ireland Conservatives	5
	People Before Profit	3
	Cross-Community Labour Alternative	1
Total		136

By constituency

Constituency	Sinn Féin	DUP	Alliance	UUP	SDLP	TUV	Green	Aontú	Others	Incumbent
Belfast East		Gavin Robinson	Naomi Long	Ryan Warren	Séamas de Faoite	John Ross	Brian Smyth		Ryan North (Independent)		DUP	Gavin Robinson
Belfast North	John Finucane	Phillip Brett	Nuala McAllister		Carl Whyte	David Clarke	Mal O'Hara		Fiona Ferguson (PBP)		SF	John Finucane
Belfast South and Mid Down		Tracy Kelly	Kate Nicholl	Michael Henderson	Claire Hanna	Dan Boucher	Áine Groogan				SDLP	Claire Hanna
Belfast West	Paul Maskey	Frank McCoubrey	Eóin Millar	Ben Sharkey	Paul Doherty	Ann McClure	Ash Jones	Gerard Herdman	Gerry Carroll (PBP) Tony Mallon (Independent)		SF	Paul Maskey
East Antrim	Oliver McMullan	Sammy Wilson	Danny Donnelly	John Stewart	Margaret Anne McKillop	Matthew Warwick	Mark Bailey				DUP	Sammy Wilson
East Londonderry	Kathleen McGurk	Gregory Campbell	Richard Stewart	Glenn Miller	Cara Hunter	Allister Kyle	Jen McCahon	Gemma Brolly	Claire Scull (Conservative)		DUP	Gregory Campbell
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	Pat Cullen		Eddie Roofe	Diana Armstrong	Paul Blake			Carl Duffy	Gerry Cullen (CCLA)		SF	Michelle Gildernew
Foyle	Sandra Duffy	Gary Middleton	Rachael Ferguson	Janice Montgomery	Colum Eastwood			John Boyle	Shaun Harkin (PBP) Anne McCloskey (Independent)		SDLP	Colum Eastwood
Lagan Valley		Jonathan Buckley	Sorcha Eastwood	Robbie Butler	Simon Lee	Lorna Smyth	Patricia Denvir				Independent (elected as DUP)	Jeffrey Donaldson
Mid Ulster	Cathal Mallaghan	Keith Buchanan	Padraic Farrell	Jay Basra	Denise Johnston	Glenn Moore		Alixandra Halliday	John Kelly (Independent)		SF	Francie Molloy
Newry and Armagh	Dáire Hughes	Gareth Wilson	Helena Young	Sam Nicholson	Pete Byrne	Keith Ratcliffe		Liam Reichenberg	Samantha Rayner (Conservative)		SF	Mickey Brady
North Antrim	Philip McGuigan	Ian Paisley Jr	Sian Mulholland	Jackson Minford	Helen Maher	Jim Allister		Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill	Tristan Morrow (Independent)		DUP	Ian Paisley Jr
North Down			Stephen Farry	Tim Collins	Déirdre Vaughan		Barry McKee		Alex Easton (Independent) Chris Carter (Independent)		APNI	Stephen Farry
South Antrim	Declan Kearney	Paul Girvan	John Blair	Robin Swann	Roisin Lynch	Mel Lucas	Lesley Veronica	Siobhan McErlean			DUP	Paul Girvan
South Down	Chris Hazzard	Diane Forsythe	Andrew McMurray	Michael O'Loan	Colin McGrath	Jim Wells	Declan Walsh	Rosemary McGlone	Hannah Westropp (Conservative)		SF	Chris Hazzard
Strangford	Noel Sands	Jim Shannon	Michelle Guy	Richard Smart	Will Polland	Ron McDowell	Alexandra Braidner		Gareth Burns (Independent) Garreth Falls (Independent) Barry Hetherington (Conservative)		DUP	Jim Shannon
Upper Bann	Catherine Nelson	Carla Lockhart	Eóin Tennyson	Kate Evans	Malachy Quinn						DUP	Carla Lockhart
West Tyrone	Órfhlaith Begley	Tom Buchanan	Stephen Donnelly	Matthew Bell	Daniel McCrossan	Stevan Patterson		Leza Houston	Stephen Lynch (Conservative)		SF	Órfhlaith Begley

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	DUP	SF	Alliance	SDLP	UUP	TUV	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election[26]	–	22.1%	27.0%	15.0%	11.1%	12.2%	6.2%	6.4%	4.9
	LucidTalk[27]	Belfast Telegraph	3,859	21%	23%	18%	14%	13%	4%		2
	LucidTalk[28]	Belfast Telegraph	3,634	21%	24%	17%	13%	12%	5%		3
	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,316	20%	26%	15%	10%	13%	8%		6
	Social Market Research[29]	Irish News–University of Liverpool	1,206	23.5%	31.1%	15.2%	8.1%	11.1%	4.8%	–	6.6
	Social Market Research[30]	Institute of Irish Studies	1,074	25%	31%	15%	9%	11%	5%	5%	6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023	Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey	ARK	1,200	%	%	%	%	%	–
2019 general election	–	30.6%	22.8%	16.8%	14.9%	11.7%	N/A	3.2%	7.8

Projections

Source ! rowspan="2"

Date	DUP	SF	SDLP	APNI	UUP	TUV	Ind.	Others
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
Electoral Calculus[31]	4 July	7	7	2	1	1	0	0	0
Bunker Consulting Group[32]	1 July	6	7	2	2	1	0	0	0
Ireland Votes[33]	25 May	5	7	2	1	1	1	1	0

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	43%	37%	20%	+6%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	41%	37%	22%	+4%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	41%	40%	19%	+1%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	46%	37%	17%	+9%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	40%	42%	18%	–2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	24%	66%	10%	−42%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	65%	8%	−38%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	25%	63%	12%	−38%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	29%	65%	6%	−36%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	27%	64%	9%	−37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	38%	39%	23%	−1%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	40%	38%	22%	+2%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	37%	38%	25%	−1%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	45%	37%	18%	+8%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	46%	37%	17%	+9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	34%	38%	28%	−4%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	38%	33%	29%	+5%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	28%	42%	30%	−14%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	37%	32%	31%	+5%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	34%	32%	0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	26%	43%	31%	−17%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	32%	40%	28%	−8%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	33%	38%	29%	−5%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	31%	39%	30%	−8%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	39%	27%	–5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Good/great	Bad/awful	Don't know	Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	23%	63%	14%	−40%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	61%	12%	−34%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	27%	57%	16%	−30%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	27%	59%	14%	−32%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	31%	54%	15%	−23%

Leadership performance ratings

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

UK and Ireland political leaders

MPs not seeking re-election

MP	Consti­tuency	First elected	Party		Date announced
	Mid Ulster	2013		Sinn Féin	[34]
	Newry and Armagh	2015		Sinn Féin	[35]
Jeffrey Donaldson	Lagan Valley	1997		DUP	[36]
Michelle Gildernew	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	2001		Sinn Féin	23 May 2024[37]

Results

By affiliation

Affiliate^[38] ! colspan="5"

Seats	Aggregate votes
Total	Gains	Losses	Net	Of all (%)	Total	Of all (%)	Differ­ence
	7	0	0		39%	210,891	27.0%	4.2%
	5	0	−3	3	28%	172,058	22.1%	8.5%
	2	0	0		11%	86,861	11.1%	3.8%
	1	+1	−1		5.6%	117,191	15.0%	1.8%
	1	+1	0	1	5.6%	94,779	12.2%	0.5%
	1	5.6%			48,685	6.2%
	1	+1	0	1	5.6%	24,223[39]	3.1%	2.8%
	0	0	0		0.0%	8,692	1.1%	0.9%
	0	0	0		0.0%	8,438	1.1%	0.2%
	0	0	0		0.0%	7,466	1.0%	0.2%
	0	0.0%			624	0.1%
	0	0	0		0.0%	553	0.1%	0.6%
	Total	18			779,847	57%	4.5%

Seats by affiliate share

Analysis

Sinn Féin became the largest Northern Ireland party in the House of Commons for the first time, following similar success in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Sinn Féin defended their seven seats with an increased majority in each, South Down, Belfast North and especially Fermanagh and South Tyrone are less marginal than they were in 2019. Sinn Féin also came very close to gaining East Londonderry, Kathleen McGurk was the runner-up just 179 votes behind the DUP. Sinn Féin also narrowed the SDLP's majority in Foyle.

The DUP won five seats, three less than in 2019, this was the lowest number of DUP MPs since 2001 and since the DUP became the largest unionist party. The DUP lost Lagan Valley to Alliance, South Antrim to the UUP and North Antrim to the TUV. The loss of North Antrim by just 450 votes is particularly notable, the DUP had held this seat for its entire existence, and between them Ian Paisley and Ian Paisley Jr had represented this constituency for 54 years since 1970. The majorities of Sammy Wilson in East Antrim and especially Gregory Campbell in East Londonderry, were significantly reduced, both were narrowly held against challenges from Alliance by 1,306 votes and Sinn Féin by 179 votes respectively. A more positive result for the DUP was the re-election of new leader Gavin Robinson in Belfast East with a slightly increased majority, the DUP also held Strangford and Upper Bann.

The SDLP held their two seats. In Foyle SDLP leader Colum Eastwood's majority was reduced from 17,110 to 4,166, mainly due to lower turnout although there was a swing to Sinn Féin. Claire Hanna was also re-elected to the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency with a slightly reduced majority of 12,506, this is now the fifth safest seat in Northern Ireland after Sinn Féin's four safest seats. Outside of these two constituencies the SDLP vote mainly decreased, with Belfast West a notable exception. The SDLP was the runner-up in South Down and Newry and Armagh, both were previously SDLP held seats but are increasingly safe for Sinn Féin.

Alliance remains the third largest party in Northern Ireland in terms of vote share, as it was in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Alliance gained Lagan Valley from the DUP, with Sorcha Eastwood becoming the third directly elected Alliance MP. Alliance also lost North Down, with independent unionist Alex Easton gaining from Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry, the party leader Naomi Long also lost in Belfast East, Long was the previous MP for Belfast East from 2010 to 2015. Alliance came a particularly close second in East Antrim, and was also runner-up in Strangford and in Belfast South and Mid Down for the first time since 1987. In other constituencies the Alliance vote was generally down slightly from their peak in 2019, but higher than any previous elections.

The UUP gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time since 2015, with the election of Robin Swann in South Antrim, Swann achieved the highest majority in South Antrim since 1997 (7,512). The UUP was runner-up in one other constituency, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which the party had last won in 2015, although Diana Armstrong was the sole unionist candidate the increase in the Sinn Féin vote ensured the seat remained a Sinn Féin hold. As with Alliance, the UUP's second best prospect in this election was East Antrim, fewer than 2,000 votes separated the top three candidates.

The TUV gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time, with Jim Allister gaining North Antrim from the DUP by 450 votes. Beyond North Antrim the TUV's strongest constituencies were East Londonderry, East Antrimand Strangford. The other MP elected in Northern Ireland was independent unionist Alex Easton in North Down who gained the seat from Alliance, Easton left the DUP in 2021 and he is the fourth North Down MP to have been elected either as an independent or with a smaller unionist party after leaving the DUP or UUP.

See also

• Elections in Northern Ireland
• Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
• List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Notes and References

1. News: BBC News. Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election. 22 May 2024. 25 May 2024.
2. Web site: Hughes . Brendan . 2023-06-28 . Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes . 2023-11-05 . Belfast Live.
3. News: 2023-06-28 . Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change . BBC News . 2023-11-05.
4. Web site: List of Business - 15th November 2023. Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
5. si . 2023 . 1230 . The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023 . 15 November 2023.
6. Web site: Michael Palmer. 2023-11-24 . Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal? . 2023-11-24 . Slugger O'Toole . en-GB.
7. Web site: David McCann . 2023-11-24 . Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte . 2023-11-24 . Slugger O'Toole . en-GB.
8. Web site: 2024-01-12 . TUV says unionists must have anti-protocol candidates to vote for in next Westminster election . 2024-01-24 . The Irish News . en.
9. Web site: 2023-10-06 . North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in a bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP . 2024-04-11 . Newsletter . en-GB.
10. Web site: 2023-11-26 . Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down . 2023-11-27 . Northern Ireland Elects.
11. News: 2024-01-24 . UUP: Iraq veteran Col Tim Collins to run in North Down . 2024-01-24 . BBC News . en-GB.
12. Web site: 2024-04-25 . Easton to Stand . 2024-04-26 . County Down Spectator.
13. News: 2023-10-21 . Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat . en-GB . . 26 May 2024 . 0307-1235.
14. News: 2023-11-13 . Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll . en-GB . Belfast Telegraph . 2023-11-24 . 0307-1235.
15. News: 2024-01-24 . Iraq War veteran standing for UUP as he sets sights on Stephen Farry's Westminster seat . 2024-01-24 . Belfast Telegraph . en-GB . 0307-1235.
16. News: 2024-01-26 . Robin Swann lined up for South Antrim election bid . 2024-01-26 . en-GB.
17. News: 2024-01-27 . NI relations with Westminster have never been worse, claims UUP deputy as he confirms election bid . 2024-01-27 . Belfast Telegraph . en-GB . 0307-1235.
18. News: 2024-03-16 . TUV conference: Jim Allister announces partnership with Reform UK . 2024-03-16 . BBC News . en-GB.
19. News: 24 May 2024 . TUV and Reform UK to support Alex Easton in North Down . Belfast Telegraph .
20. Slugger TV - 26th April 2024 . 2024-04-25 . NVTV . Northern Visions . 2024-04-26 . Vimeo.
21. Web site: 2024-05-07 . Ulster Unionists select Jay Basra as Westminster candidate for Mid Ulster . 2024-05-13 . Northern Ireland Elects.
22. News: 2024-05-13 . UUP leader Doug Beattie condemns social media 'abuse' aimed at Mid Ulster election candidate . 2024-05-14 . BelfastTelegraph.co.uk . en-GB . 0307-1235.
23. Web site: Pepper . Diarmuid . 2024-07-01 . Alliance confident of taking Westminster seat Jeffrey Donaldson has held for almost three decades . 2024-07-03 . TheJournal.ie . en.
24. Web site: McCambridge . Jonathan . 2024-07-02 . Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson facing more sex offence charges . 2024-07-03 . Irish Examiner . en.
25. Web site: Open candidate information for UK elections . Democracy Club Candidates . Democracy Club . en-gb.
26. News: Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map . BBC News . 5 July 2024 . 8 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240708074246/https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/regions/N92000002 . live .
27. Web site: LucidTalk pre NI Westminster Election Poll 3 (of 3) . 16 October 2024 .
28. Web site: Archived copy . 17 June 2024 . 17 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240617181844/https://x.com/LucidTalk/status/1802681887111999913 . live .
29. News: Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election . Manley . John . 2024-03-11 . . 2023-03-14 . 13 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240313010902/https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-on-course-for-record-performance-in-westminster-election-CPNA36GAZVH3VKW77E435GK6XA/ . live.
30. News: Sinn Féin on course to break Westminster record . Manley . John . 2023-11-13 . . 2023-11-13 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231113142200/https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2023/11/13/news/opinion_poll_sinn_fe_in_to_consolidate_position_as_north_s_biggest_party-3763225/ . 2023-11-13.
31. Web site: General Election Prediction . 4 July 2024 . Electoral Calculus . 7 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240607144152/https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html . live .
32. Web site: General Election Forecast. 27 June 2024 . Bunker Consulting Group . 7 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240707060537/https://bunker.global/escenarios-electorales . live .
33. Web site: General Election Forecast. 15 July 2024.
34. Web site: Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy not seeking re-election . BBC News . 13 February 2024. 16 February 2024.
35. Web site: Sinn Féin MP Mickey Brady not seeking re-election . BBC News . 19 February 2024. 20 February 2024.
36. Web site: Donaldson solicitor confirms MP will not contest election . 22 May 2024 . BBC News . 22 May 2024 . en.
37. Web site: Representing the people of Midlands-North-West my sole focus – Gildernew . 23 May 2024 . Sinn Féin.
38. Web site: Results of the 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland . bbc.co.uk . 13 December 2019 . 13 December 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20191213175211/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/northern_ireland . live .
39. Among others, includes 20,913 for Independent Unionist Alex Easton in North Down, and 624 for "Cross-Community Labour Alternative" in Fermanagh & South Tyrone