| Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Country: | Arizona |
| Yes: | 2000287 |
| No: | 1246202 |
| Right to Abortion Initiative | |
| Map: | File:2024 Arizona Proposition 139 results map by county.svg |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| Notes: | 100% reporting as of Nov. 25, MST[1] |
Arizona Proposition 139 is a constitutional amendment that was approved by voters on November 5, 2024, establishing a right to abortion in the Constitution of Arizona up until fetal viability.[2]
Arizona's first ban on abortion was passed in 1864.[3] It read:
This total abortion ban was invalidated in 1973 by Roe v. Wade, which recognized a constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability. A trigger law, drafted to go into effect if Roe were overturned, was passed by the Arizona Legislature in 2022, banning abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy. Later that same year, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that Roe had been "wrongly decided". This, in turn, led to confusion over which of the two Arizona abortion laws should go into effect: Then-Governor Doug Ducey backed the 15-week ban, while then-Attorney General Mark Brnovich held that the older total ban should be operative.
In November of 2022, Katie Hobbs and Kris Mayes, both supporters of abortion rights, were elected as Governor and Attorney General of Arizona, respectively; their election was seen as part of the so-called Dobbs effect backlash against the ruling. The next month, a state appeals court ruling found that the 2022 law should take precedence, allowing abortions up to 15 weeks to be performed in Arizona.[4] In July 2023, Hobbs issued an executive order stripping local prosecutors of their ability to file prosecutions over the 15-week ban or (if it were revived in court) the 1864 ban, and assigning that power to Mayes, who, in turn, stated that she had no intention of ever filing such prosecutions.[5] [6]
On April 9, 2024, the Republican-controlled Arizona Supreme Court ruled in Planned Parenthood Arizona v. Mayes that the 1864 law could be enforced.[7] However, on May 1, in the face of further backlash, the Arizona Legislature repealed the 1864 law, leaving the 15-week ban in place.[8] Proposition 139 invalidated the 15-week ban, restoring the legal situation before the repeal of Roe.[9]
The official ballot title is as follows:
If approved, the ballot measure would add the following text to Article 2, Section 8.1, to the Arizona Constitution:[10]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | For | Against | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive 28 | October 28–30, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 57% | 33% | 9% | |
| CBS News/YouGov | October 11–16, 2024 | 1,434 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 33% | 15% | |
| Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 72% | 26% | 2% | |
| New York Times/Siena College | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 58% | 35% | 7% | |
| Fox News | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 73% | 23% | 4% | |
| KFF | May 23–June 5, 2024 | 3,192 (Female RV) | ± 5% | 67% | 32% | 0% | |
| CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1510 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 65% | 21% | 14% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.09% | 41% | 41% | 18% |