2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate.

As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippi voters supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippi voters supported Biden.^[3] 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the white Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate.^[4] Biden flipped Warren County, with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Democratic primary

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.^[5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[6]		September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[7]		September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8]		July 14, 2020
Politico[9]		September 8, 2020
RCP[10]		August 3, 2020
Niskanen[11]		July 26, 2020
CNN[12]		August 3, 2020
The Economist[13]		September 2, 2020
CBS News[14]		August 16, 2020
270towin[15]		August 2, 2020
ABC News[16]		July 31, 2020
NPR[17]		August 3, 2020
NBC News[18]		August 6, 2020
538[19]		November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summaryAggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"

Donald Trump	Other/ Undecided	Margin
270 to Win[20]	October 17–27, 2020	November 3, 2020	40.0%		57.0%	3.0%		Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight[21]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	39.6%		55.5%	4.9%		Trump +15.9
Average			39.8%		56.3%	3.9%		Trump +16.5

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Jo Jorgensen	Howie Hawkins	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,461 (LV)	± 4%		61%	37%	-	-	–	–
Data For Progress[23]	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	562 (LV)	± 4.1%		55%	41%	2%	1%	1%	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos[24]	Oct 23–26, 2020	507 (LV)	± 5.3%		55%	41%	-	-	3%	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,116 (LV)	–		62%	37%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	782 (LV)	–		55%	44%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	607 (LV)	–		61%	36%	-	-	–	3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[25]	Aug 28–30, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%		50%	40%	No voters	-	No voters	6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy[26]	Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.1%		53%	43%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	733 (LV)	–		59%	39%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	425 (LV)	–		63%	35%	-	-	–	2%
Chism Strategies (D)[27]	Jun 2–4, 2020	568 (LV)	± 4.1%		50%	41%	-	-	6%	3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College[28]	Apr 8–9, 2020	508 (RV)	± 4.4%		49%	38%	-	-	7%	7%
Mason-Dixon[29]	Feb 26–28, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%		56%	41%	-	-	–	3%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Results

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Adams		5,696		41.40%		7,917		57.54%		146		1.06%		-2,221		-16.14%		13,759
	Alcorn		12,818		81.16%		2,782		17.62%		193		1.22%		10,036		63.54%		15,793
	Amite		4,503		62.58%		2,620		36.41%		73		1.01%		1,863		26.17%		7,196
	Attala		5,178		58.69%		3,542		40.15%		103		1.16%		1,636		18.54%		8,823
	Benton		2,570		59.92%		1,679		39.15%		40		0.93%		891		20.77%		4,289
	Bolivar		4,671		33.99%		8,904		64.78%		169		1.23%		-4,233		-30.79%		13,744
	Calhoun		4,625		70.18%		1,902		28.86%		63		0.96%		2,723		41.32%		6,590
	Carroll		3,924		68.83%		1,729		30.33%		48		0.84%		2,195		38.50%		5,701
	Chickasaw		4,175		51.28%		3,810		46.80%		156		1.92%		365		4.48%		8,141
	Choctaw		3,001		71.06%		1,185		28.06%		37		0.88%		1,816		43.00%		4,223
	Claiborne		603		13.55%		3,772		84.78%		74		1.67%		-3,169		-71.23%		4,449
	Clarke		5,417		64.97%		2,838		34.04%		83		0.99%		2,579		30.93%		8,338
	Clay		4,181		41.03%		5,844		57.36%		164		1.61%		-1,663		-16.33%		10,189
	Coahoma		2,375		27.94%		6,020		70.82%		106		1.24%		-3,645		-42.88%		8,501
	Copiah		6,250		48.51%		6,470		50.22%		163		1.27%		-220		-1.71%		12,883
	Covington		5,854		62.54%		3,416		36.50%		90		0.96%		2,438		26.04%		9,360
	DeSoto		46,462		61.03%		28,265		37.13%		1,397		1.84%		18,197		23.90%		76,124
	Forrest		17,290		54.62%		13,755		43.45%		609		1.93%		3,535		11.17%		31,654
	Franklin		2,923		65.52%		1,480		33.18%		58		1.30%		1,443		32.34%		4,461
	George		9,713		87.91%		1,218		11.02%		118		1.07%		8,495		76.89%		11,049
	Greene		4,794		82.48%		966		16.62%		52		0.90%		3,828		65.86%		5,812
	Grenada		6,081		55.73%		4,734		43.39%		96		0.88%		1,347		12.34%		10,911
	Hancock		16,132		76.98%		4,504		21.49%		321		1.53%		11,628		55.49%		20,957
	Harrison		46,822		61.70%		27,728		36.54%		1,335		1.76%		19,094		25.16%		75,885
	Hinds		25,141		25.09%		73,550		73.40%		1,517		1.51%		-48,409		-48.31%		100,208
	Holmes		1,369		16.87%		6,588		81.18%		158		1.95%		-5,219		-64.31%		8,115
	Humphreys		1,118		26.69%		3,016		72.00%		55		1.31%		-1,898		-45.31%		4,189
	Issaquena		308		45.56%		355		52.51%		13		1.93%		-47		-6.95%		676
	Itawamba		9,438		87.24%		1,249		11.54%		132		1.22%		8,189		75.70%		10,819
	Jackson		36,295		66.54%		17,375		31.86%		873		1.60%		18,920		34.68%		54,543
	Jasper		4,302		49.24%		4,341		49.69%		93		1.07%		-39		-0.45%		8,736
	Jefferson		531		13.59%		3,327		85.13%		50		1.28%		-2,796		-71.54%		3,908
	Jefferson Davis		2,534		40.79%		3,599		57.93%		80		1.28%		-1,065		-17.14%		6,213
	Jones		21,226		70.54%		8,517		28.30%		348		1.16%		12,709		42.24%		30,091
	Kemper		1,787		37.77%		2,887		61.02%		57		1.21%		-1,100		-23.25%		4,731
	Lafayette		12,949		55.28%		10,070		42.99%		404		1.73%		2,879		12.29%		23,423
	Lamar		20,704		72.57%		7,340		25.73%		486		1.70%		13,364		46.84%		28,530
	Lauderdale		17,967		57.50%		12,960		41.48%		320		1.02%		5,007		16.02%		31,247
	Lawrence		4,285		64.80%		2,260		34.18%		68		1.02%		2,025		30.62%		6,613
	Leake		5,228		56.83%		3,897		42.36%		75		0.81%		1,331		14.47%		9,200
	Lee		24,207		65.51%		12,189		32.98%		558		1.51%		12,018		32.53%		36,954
	Leflore		3,129		28.72%		7,648		70.21%		116		1.07%		-4,519		-41.49%		10,893
	Lincoln		11,596		69.02%		5,040		30.00%		165		0.98%		6,556		39.02%		16,801
	Lowndes		13,800		50.66%		13,087		48.04%		354		1.30%		713		2.62%		27,241
	Madison		31,091		55.16%		24,440		43.36%		830		1.48%		6,651		11.80%		56,361
	Marion		8,273		67.94%		3,787		31.10%		117		0.96%		4,486		36.84%		12,177
	Marshall		7,566		47.83%		8,057		50.94%		194		1.23%		-491		-3.11%		15,817
	Monroe		11,177		64.76%		5,874		34.03%		208		1.21%		5,303		30.73%		17,259
	Montgomery		2,917		57.48%		2,121		41.79%		37		0.73%		796		15.69%		5,075
	Neshoba		8,320		71.09%		3,260		27.86%		123		1.05%		5,060		43.23%		11,703
	Newton		6,997		68.71%		3,075		30.20%		111		1.09%		3,922		38.51%		10,183
	Noxubee		1,240		23.23%		4,040		75.67%		59		1.10%		-2,800		-52.44%		5,339
	Oktibbeha		9,004		45.57%		10,299		52.13%		454		2.30%		-1,295		-6.56%		19,757
	Panola		8,060		51.58%		7,403		47.37%		164		1.05%		657		4.21%		15,627
	Pearl River		19,595		81.53%		4,148		17.26%		290		1.21%		15,447		64.27%		24,033
	Perry		4,500		76.06%		1,362		23.02%		54		0.92%		3,138		53.04%		5,916
	Pike		8,479		48.84%		8,646		49.80%		236		1.36%		-167		-0.96%		17,361
	Pontotoc		11,550		80.43%		2,614		18.20%		197		1.37%		8,936		62.23%		14,361
	Prentiss		8,370		78.64%		2,153		20.23%		121		1.13%		6,217		58.41%		10,644
	Quitman		1,026		31.80%		2,150		66.65%		50		1.55%		-1,124		-34.85%		3,226
	Rankin		50,895		71.89%		18,847		26.62%		1,057		1.49%		32,048		45.27%		70,799
	Scott		6,285		58.56%		4,330		40.34%		118		1.10%		1,955		18.22%		10,733
	Sharkey		688		31.52%		1,465		67.11%		30		1.37%		-777		-35.59%		2,183
	Simpson		7,635		64.62%		4,037		34.17%		143		1.21%		3,598		30.45%		11,815
	Smith		6,458		77.55%		1,791		21.51%		78		0.94%		4,667		56.04%		8,327
	Stone		5,964		75.70%		1,802		22.87%		112		1.43%		4,162		52.83%		7,878
	Sunflower		2,799		28.91%		6,781		70.04%		101		1.05%		-3,982		-41.13%		9,681
	Tallahatchie		2,488		43.76%		3,105		54.62%		92		1.62%		-617		-10.86%		5,685
	Tate		8,707		66.50%		4,183		31.95%		203		1.55%		4,524		34.55%		13,093
	Tippah		8,054		79.73%		1,937		19.17%		111		1.10%		6,117		60.56%		10,102
	Tishomingo		7,933		86.81%		1,059		11.59%		146		1.60%		6,874		75.22%		9,138
	Tunica		926		25.97%		2,580		72.37%		59		1.66%		-1,654		-46.40%		3,565
	Union		10,373		81.79%		2,160		17.03%		150		1.18%		8,213		64.76%		12,683
	Walthall		4,220		59.28%		2,835		39.82%		64		0.90%		1,385		19.46%		7,119
	Warren		10,365		49.23%		10,442		49.60%		246		1.17%		-77		-0.37%		21,053
	Washington		5,300		29.39%		12,503		69.33%		231		1.28%		-7,203		-39.94%		18,034
	Wayne		6,307		62.72%		3,624		36.04%		125		1.24%		2,683		26.68%		10,056
	Webster		4,291		79.54%		1,043		19.33%		61		1.13%		3,248		60.21%		5,395
	Wilkinson		1,324		32.08%		2,749		66.61%		56		1.31%		-1,425		-34.53%		4,127
	Winston		5,112		55.35%		4,040		43.74%		84		0.91%		1,072		11.61%		9,236
	Yalobusha		3,671		56.17%		2,785		42.62%		79		1.21%		886		13.55%		6,535
	Yazoo		4,832		46.30%		5,496		52.66%		108		1.04%		-664		-6.36%		10,436
Totals	756,764	57.57%	539,398	41.04%	18,313	1.39%	217,366	16.53%	1,314,475

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
		64.8%	33.8%		Trent Kelly
		35.2%	63.7%		Bennie Thompson
		60.1%	38.6%		Michael Guest
		68.3%	30.3%		Steven Palazzo

Analysis

Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump comfortably carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was rejected. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to get rid of the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states, due to African Americans comprising 37.94% of its population. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden.^[3]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Mississippi
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• • • Web site: League of Women Voters of Mississippi . (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Notes and References

1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
3. News: 2020-11-03. Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-09. 0362-4331.
4. News: November 3, 2020. Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. January 27, 2021. 0362-4331.
5. News: Taylor . Kate . Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass. . February 10, 2019 . The New York Times . February 9, 2019.
6. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
7. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
8. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
9. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
10. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
11. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
12. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
13. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
14. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
15. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
16. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
17. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. en.
18. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
19. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
20. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/mississippi/ 270 to Win
21. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/mississippi/ FiveThirtyEight
22. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
23. https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ms_11.2.20.pdf Data For Progress
24. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MS_banner_book_2020_10_46eq84.pdf Civiqs/Daily Kos
25. https://consumerenergyalliance.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Mississippi-CEA-Track.pdf Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance
26. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200813_MS.pdf Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy
27. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200616_MS.pdf Chism Strategies (D)
28. http://www.millsaps.edu/_resources/documents/2020-april-sots.pdf Chism Strategies/Millsaps College
29. https://fr.scribd.com/document/450298837/Mason-Dixon-March-2020-Poll Mason-Dixon