2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana explained

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana should not be confused with 2020 Montana House of Representatives election.

Election Name:2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Image1:File:Matt Rosendale 117th U.S Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Matt Rosendale
Popular Vote1:339,169
Percentage1:56.39%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Kathleen Williams
Popular Vote2:262,340
Percentage2:43.61%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Greg Gianforte
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Matt Rosendale
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:300px

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[2]

In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Russell
Fagg		Joe
Dooling		Timothy
Johnson		Al
Olszewski		Denny
Rehberg		Matt
Rosendale		Corey
Stapleton		Undecided
Montana State University Billings[11] October 7–16, 201999 (LV)––1%<1%––32%22%44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[12] February 24–26, 2019501 (V)± 4.4%24%––––57%–15%
––39%46%–13%
18%10%–51%–18%
15%–31%37%–16%
17%––48%19%16%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Results

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[20] October 2, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[21] October 1, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] October 1, 2020
Politico[23] September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[24] September 25, 2020
RCP[25] October 26, 2020
Niskanen[26] July 26, 2020
The Economist[27] October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Rosendale (R)		Kathleen
Williams (D)		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[28] October 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%47%46%6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[29] October 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%50%46%4%
Strategies 360[30] October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%9%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[31] October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%47%6%
45%49%6%
49%45%6%
Montana State University Bozeman[32] September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%48%46%6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[33] September 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%41%44%13%
Expedition Strategies (D)[34] August 22–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%51%1%
WPA Intelligence (R)[35] August 9–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[36] July 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%49%47%5%
Public Policy Polling[37] July 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%44%44%13%
Global Strategy Group (D)[38] June 24–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%6%
University of Montana[39] June 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%45%37%18%
Public Policy Polling[40] March 12–13, 2020903 (V)± 3.3%45%45%9%

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wasserman. David. Flinn. Ally. 2018 House Popular Vote Tracker. Cook Political Report. November 7, 2018. February 28, 2019.
  2. News: September 13, 2020 . No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race . . live . https://archive.today/20200913205414/http://ballot-access.org/2020/09/13/no-alternative-candidates-on-montana-ballot-for-any-congressional-race/ . September 13, 2020 . September 13, 2020 .
  3. News: Pathé. Simone. On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again. Roll Call. June 17, 2019. June 17, 2019.
  4. News: Alexander. Cassidy. Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat. MTPR. June 25, 2019. June 26, 2019.
  5. Web site: Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat. Drake. Phil. Great Falls Tribune. en. 2019-09-09.
  6. Web site: Dennison . Mike . Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race . KTVH . March 2, 2020.
  7. News: Drake. Phil. Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat. Great Falls Tribune. June 15, 2019. June 15, 2019.
  8. News: Michels. Holly K.. Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020. Independent Record. June 6, 2019. June 7, 2019.
  9. News: Dennison. Mike. Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races. KRTV. March 20, 2019. March 21, 2019.
  10. News: Pogreba. Don. 2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!. The Montana Post. January 9, 2019. February 28, 2019. March 1, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190301135948/https://themontanapost.com/blog/2019/01/09/2020-updates-daines-tells-tim-fox-to-shove-off-hes-supporting-gianforte-for-governor-and-denny-rehberg-is-eyeing-a-comeback/. dead.
  11. https://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/polls/2019%20Mountain%20States%20Poll%20Report.pdf Montana State University Billings
  12. https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/CfG_MT_House_Baseline_Memo_v2_190227.pdf WPA Intelligence (R)
  13. News: Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat. Associated Press. KECI. April 5, 2019. April 5, 2019.
  14. News: Michels. Holly K.. Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House. Helena Independent Record. April 2, 2019. April 2, 2019.
  15. Web site: Drake . Phil . Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams . Great Falls Tribune . January 21, 2020 . January 21, 2020.
  16. News: Hanson. Amy Beth. Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate. Associated Press. May 13, 2019. May 13, 2019.
  17. https://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/polls/2019%20Mountain%20States%20Poll%20Report.pdf Montana State University Billings
  18. Web site: Michels . Holly . Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises . Helena Independent Record . March 9, 2020.
  19. Web site: Michels . Holly . Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot . Helena Independent Record . August 7, 2020 . August 7, 2020.
  20. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2019.
  21. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 3, 2019.
  22. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . August 28, 2019 . August 22, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190822073139/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ . dead .
  23. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  24. Web site: Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020 . Daily Kos Elections. February 28, 2020.
  25. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  26. Web site: 2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections. April 28, 2020. Niskanen Center. May 1, 2020. June 21, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200621124503/https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/. dead.
  27. Web site: Oct 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . Oct 2, 2020 . The Economist.
  28. http://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2020-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf Montana State University Billings
  29. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot
  30. https://nbcmontana.com/news/beyond-the-podium/nbc-montanastrategies-360-poll-shows-extremely-tight-montana-races Strategies 360
  31. http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/25/mt-us-congress-williamsd-47-rosendaler-47/ RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
  32. https://helpslab.montana.edu/documents/treasure_state_2020_election_surveys/House_Overview_Final_11Oct2020.pdf Montana State University Bozeman
  33. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf Siena College/NYT Upshot
  34. https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/MT-AL-poll-083120.pdf Expedition Strategies (D)
  35. https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CfGPAC_MT-AL_SurveyMemo_200812.pdf WPA Intelligence (R)
  36. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MT_banner_book_2020_07_ba6t8k.pdf Civiqs/Daily Kos
  37. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MontanaPoll071220.pdf Public Policy Polling
  38. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-3176-d439-a573-7ff7c0450000 Global Strategy Group (D)
  39. https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/summer2020/summer2020---aggregate.pdf University of Montana
  40. https://www.endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Montana-Poll.pdf Public Policy Polling
  41. https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf University of Montana
  42. http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/FINALFINALBSP%204.0%20Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf University of Montana

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