2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election explained

The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next governor of Mississippi.^[1] Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Donald Trump, who won the state by 17 points in 2016.

Background

Situated in the Deep South as a socially conservative Bible Belt state, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republicans' winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. Hood pulled off the best performance by a Democrat since the 2003 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when fellow Democrat Ronnie Musgrove took 45.81% of the vote.^[2] Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.

Uniquely among the states, the Constitution of Mississippi establishes a sort of electoral college at the state level. For the election of governor. Article 5, Section 140 of the state constitution states that each state House district is assigned an electoral vote, and that a candidate running for governor must receive a majority of electoral votes (essentially, they must win a majority of state House districts) in addition to winning a majority of the popular vote in order to be elected governor.^[3] Article 5, Section 141 of the state constitution states that if no candidate wins both a popular and electoral vote majority, the state House of Representatives is assigned to decide the winner, choosing from the two highest popular vote winners.^[4] This provision came into play only one time in the state's history; Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove in the 1999 gubernatorial election garnered a plurality, but not a majority; the House selected Musgrove.^[5]

In the lead-up to the election, controversy emerged over these constitutional provisions establishing a state system of electoral votes, with a federal lawsuit claiming the provisions are racially biased.^[6] These provisions were put in place with the 1890 Mississippi Constitution, itself established by the segregationist Redeemers and overturning the Reconstruction-era 1868 Constitution, as part of Jim Crow Era policy to minimize the power of African Americans in politics. Because of this, as well as present gerrymandering that packs African Americans into a small number of districts, the plaintiffs claim the provisions should be struck down on the basis of racial bias.

On 3 November 2020, an amendment was passed removing the electoral college, with 79% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tate Reeves, lieutenant governor of Mississippi^{[7] [8] [9] [10]}

Eliminated in runoff

• Bill Waller Jr., former chief justice of the Mississippi State Supreme Court^[11] and son of former Democratic Governor William "Bill" Waller. Sr (1972–1976)

Eliminated in primary

• Robert Foster, Mississippi state representative^{[12] [13]}

Withdrawn

• Hal Marx, mayor of Petal^{[14] [15] [10]} (endorsed Tate Reeves)

Declined

• Thomas Duff, businessman^[16]
• Lynn Fitch, Mississippi state treasurer (running for Mississippi attorney general)^[17]
• Gerard Gibert, businessman and lottery board member^[10]
• Philip Gunn, speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives^[18]
• Trent Lott, former U.S. senator^{[19] [20]}
• Chris McDaniel, Mississippi states senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2018 (endorsed Tate Reeves)^[21]
• Mike Randolph, presiding justice of the Mississippi State Supreme Court^[22]
• Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to Governor Kirk Fordice (running for Mississippi attorney general)^[23]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Robert Foster	Tate Reeves	Bill Waller Jr.	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[24]	July 24–27, 2019	500	± 4.5%	13%		41%	31%	15%
Impact Management Group[25]	June 10–14, 2019	354	± 5.3%	9%		50%	19%	28%
Mason-Dixon[26]	January 30 – February 1, 2019	400	± 5.0%	9%		62%	–	29%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lynn Fitch	Tate Reeves	Undecided
JMC Analytics[27]	February 15–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	12%		21%		67%
Mason-Dixon[28]	December 13–15, 2017	400	± 5.0%	18%		37%		45%

Runoff

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jim Hood, Mississippi attorney general^{[29] [10] [30]}

Eliminated in primary

• Michael Brown^[31]
• William Bond Compton Jr., candidate for governor of Mississippi in 2007 and 2011, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014, nominee for the Mississippi House of Representatives in the 83rd district in 2015^[31]
• Robert J. Ray^[31]
• Robert Shuler Smith, Hinds County district attorney^[32]
• Gregory Wash^[31]
• Velesha Williams, former director for the Metro Jackson Community Prevention Coalition and former U.S. Army officer^{[33] [10]}
• Albert Wilson, businessman and community organizer^[34]

Withdrawn

• Phillip West, former state representative and former mayor of Natchez (endorsed Jim Hood)^[35]

Declined

• Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia^{[36] [10]}

Results

Other candidates

Constitution Party

Declared

• Bob Hickingbottom^[38]

Independents

Declared

• David Singletary, U.S. Air Force veteran and former hotel owner^[39]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[40]		October 15, 2019
Inside Elections[41]		November 8, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42]		November 8, 2019

Debates

Dates	Location	Hood	Reeves	Link
October 10, 2019	University of Southern Mississippi Hattiesburg	Participant	Participant	align=left	[43]
October 14, 2019	WCBIStudios Columbus	Participant	Participant	align=left	[44]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tate Reeves (R)	Jim Hood (D)	David Singletary (I)	Bob	Undecided
NBC/Survey Monkey[45]	October 8–22, 2019	1,002 (RV)	± 4.7%		47%	40%	7%	2%	3%
Targoz Market Research[46]	October 13–20, 2019	384 (LV)	–		47%	46%	–	–	7%
Mason-Dixon[47]	October 17–19, 2019	625 (LV)	± 4.0%		46%	43%	–	–	9%
Hickman Analytics[48]	October 13–16, 2019	508 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%		46%	–	–	–
Hickman Analytics (D)[49]	September 22–26, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%		45%	–	–	–
Hickman Analytics (D)[50]	August 11–15, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%		43%	–	–	–
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51]	July 2–16, 2019	1,171 (RV)	± 4.2%		51%	42%	–	–	6%
Impact Management Group	June 10–14, 2019	610 (LV)	± 4.0%		48%	36%	4%	–	12%
Hickman Analytics (D)[52]	May 5–9, 2019	604 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%		45%	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon	January 30 – February 1, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%		44%	–	–	14%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[53]	January 28–30, 2019	600 (RV)	± 3.5%		51%	36%	–	–	13%
Mason-Dixon[54]	April 12–14, 2018	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	39%		44%	–	–	17%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College[55]	December 15–19, 2017	578 (RV)	± 4.1%		45%	38%	–	–	18%
Mason-Dixon	December 13–15, 2017	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%		43%	–	–	20%

with Tate Reeves, Jim Hood, and Bill Waller Jr.

with Bill Waller Jr. and Jim Hood

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Waller Jr. (R)	Jim Hood (D)	David Singletary (I)	Undecided
NBC News/SurveyMonkey	July 2–16, 2019	1,171 (RV)	± 4.2%		53%	41%	–	6%
Impact Management Group	June 10–14, 2019	610 (LV)	± 4.0%		43%	36%	4%	17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Adams (largest city: Natchez)
• Chickasaw (largest city: Houston)
• Clay (largest city: West Point)
• Copiah (largest city: Hazlehurst)
• Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville)
• Jasper (largest city: Bay Springs)
• Kemper (largest city: De Kalb)
• Lafayette (largest city: Oxford)
• Madison (largest city: Madison)
• Marshall (largest city: Holly Springs)
• Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville)
• Panola (largest city: Batesville)
• Pike (largest city: McComb)
• Quitman (largest city: Lambert)
• Sharkey (largest city: Rolling Fork)
• Tallahatchie (largest city: Charleston)
• Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)
• Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)

By congressional district

Reeves won three of four congressional districts.^[56]

District	Reeves	Hood	Representative
		59%	40%		Trent Kelly
		32%	67%		Bennie Thompson
		54%	45%		Michael Guest
		63%	35%		Steven Palazzo

See also

• 2019 United States elections
• 2019 Mississippi elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

• Mississippi State Constitution

Official campaign websites

• Tate Reeves (R) for Governor
• Jim Hood (D) for Governor
• Bob Hickingbottom (C) for Governor
• David Singletary (I) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Mississippi Voter Information Guide. State of Mississippi – Secretary of State. 2018-09-06. 2018-09-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20180906233716/https://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Documents/VoterInformationGuide.pdf. dead.
2. News: Republican Tate Reeves wins a surprisingly close race, becoming Mississippi's next governor . Collins . Sean . 2019-11-05 . Vox . 2019-11-06 . en.
3. MS Const. art. V, § 140
4. MS Const. art. V, § 141.
5. News: Legal fight over Jim Crow-era law upends Mississippi governor race. Wilson. Reid. 9 June 2019. The Hill. 2 October 2019.
6. News: Black Voters Sue Over Mississippi's Jim Crow-Era Election Law. 24 September 2019. NPR. 2 October 2019.
7. Web site: Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves announces he is running for governor. WTVA News. 2019-01-03. 2019-01-03. https://web.archive.org/web/20190103210231/https://www.wtva.com/content/news/Lt-Gov-Tate-Reeves-set-to-file-in-governors-race-503848541.html. dead.
8. Web site: GOP's Reeves officially running for Mississippi governor. Associated Press. 4 January 2019. WAPT.
9. News: Hood, Reeves could headline 2019 governor's race. Associated Press. Mississippi Business Journal. June 26, 2016. December 5, 2016. June 25, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180625021700/http://msbusiness.com/2016/06/hood-reeves-could-headline-2019-governors-race/. dead.
10. News: Pender. Geoff. Ramseth. Luke. List: Who's running for governor, AG and other open seats in Mississippi. The Clarion-Ledger. December 6, 2018. December 8, 2018.
11. News: Former chief justice Waller to run for Mississippi governor. Associated Press. WREG. February 14, 2019. February 14, 2019.
12. Web site: Hard-right Conservative 'Farmer Bob' to Announce Run for Governor. Pittman. Ashton. www.jacksonfreepress.com. en. 2018-12-11.
13. Web site: GOP rep set to enter 2019 race for Mississippi governor. thestate. en. 2018-12-11. https://web.archive.org/web/20181211143638/https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article222940615.html. 2018-12-11. dead.
14. Web site: Marx withdraws from 2019 governor's race. www.hubcityspokes.com.
15. Web site: Republican Petal Mayor Hal Marx will run for governor in 2019. May 3, 2018. May 4, 2018. The Clarion-Ledger. Beveridge. Lici.
16. News: Pender . Geoff . Ramseth . Luke . Bologna . Giacomo . Updated: Who's running for governor, AG and other open seats in Mississippi . 12 February 2019 . Clarion Ledger . 28 January 2019.
17. Web site: Lynn Fitch to run for attorney general . The Clarion Ledger . en.
18. Web site: Pender. Geoff. 2019 Right Around Corner on Political Calendars. April 13, 2017.
19. Web site: Trent Lott for governor, 2019? . Clarionledger.com . 2017-02-23.
20. Web site: Trent Lott not ruling out gubernatorial bid . TheHill.com . 10 May 2015. 2017-02-23.
21. News: Ramseth. Luke. Chris McDaniel announces decision on run for governor. The Clarion-Ledger. February 28, 2019. February 28, 2019.
22. Web site: Crawford. Bill. Waller, Randolph rumored as potential Reeves challengers. 3 September 2017 . September 15, 2017.
23. Web site: Attorney General race gets surprise, high-profile GOP candidate on qualifying deadline. The Clarion-Ledger. Pender. Geoff. March 1, 2019. August 6, 2019.
24. https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/30/poll-signals-runoff-in-gop-governors-primary-setting-the-stage-for-high-stakes-moments-at-neshoba/ Mason-Dixon
25. https://www.yallpolitics.com/2019/06/25/new-yall-politics-poll-shows-tate-reeves-leading-primary-and-general-election-ballots/ Impact Management Group
26. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mason_Dixon_MS_Gov_2_5_2019.pdf Mason-Dixon
27. http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Mississippi-Executive-Summary-1.pdf JMC Analytics
28. https://www.scribd.com/document/367675621/Mason-Dixon-MS-Poll-Part-2 Mason-Dixon
29. News: Amid Positive Polls, Jim Hood to Announce Run for Mississippi Governor. 2018-10-03. en.
30. Web site: Mississippi Primary Election Results. Jasmine C.. Lee. August 6, 2019. November 14, 2019. The New York Times.
31. Web site: Mississippi election 2019: Who's running for governor, other state offices. The Clarion Ledger.
32. Web site: Embattled DA Robert Shuler Smith running for governor. Hattiesburg American. February 23, 2019. February 23, 2019.
33. News: Pittman. Ashton. Jackson Woman Joins Dem Race for Governor; State Rep Exploring GOP Race. Jackson Free Press. December 3, 2018. December 4, 2018.
34. Web site: Albert Wilson announces campaign for governor. Sam. Huffman. 11 January 2019. WJTV.
35. News: Democrat leaves Mississippi governor's race. Associated Press. WTOK. May 31, 2019. June 6, 2019.
36. Web site: Ulmer. Sarah. Is the Democratic mayor of Magnolia considering a challenge of Jim Hood in Governor's race?. Y'all Politics. December 3, 2018. December 4, 2018.
37. https://yallpolitics.com/2018/02/09/new-yall-politics-poll-of-ms-dems-shows-jim-hood-is-potentially-vulnerable-in-a-primary/ Triumph Campaigns
38. Web site: Bill Crawford — Can lesser knowns keep favored candidates from saving us?. 7 April 2019. 15 April 2019. 15 April 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190415000812/https://msbusiness.com/2019/04/bill-crawford-can-lesser-knowns-keep-favored-candidates-from-saving-us/. dead.
39. News: Ramseth. Luke. He sings karaoke and wears a marijuana suit. He wants to be the next Mississippi governor.. The Clarion-Ledger. May 2, 2019. May 16, 2019.
40. Web site: 2020 Governor Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en.
41. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections . www.insideelections.com.
42. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Governor. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
43. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30RJ89G1l6Q
44. https://www.wcbi.com/lt-gov-tate-reeves-g-jim-hood-face-off-gubernatorial-debate-hosted-wcbi/
45. https://www.scribd.com/document/432021889/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Mississippi-Poll-10-25 NBC/Survey Monkey
46. https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2019/10/24/pollsmart-mr-polls-for-kentucky-and-mississippi Targoz Market Research
47. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-f54a-d909-abff-f56b65530001 Mason-Dixon
48. https://web.archive.org/web/20191023143420/https://mightymail.gorillawebstudio.com/t/ViewEmail/r/C0AEB0EB935FFAE52540EF23F30FEDED/5695D885DB70E6EFCE63909E3969C05F Hickman Analytics
49. https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1179374524166541313 Hickman Analytics (D)
50. https://web.archive.org/web/20190828195651/https://mightymail.gorillawebstudio.com/t/ViewEmail/r/C7D1D8894EEB96212540EF23F30FEDED/BB9BAC498BC508E9D3AB5F5EEC5F0895 Hickman Analytics (D)
51. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6206542-NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Mississippi-Poll-7-19.html NBC News/SurveyMonkey
52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o1HtkebpcXD_iN38f-34zCc8FgFNRCPb/view Hickman Analytics (D)
53. https://www.scribd.com/document/399710335/OnMessage-Polling-Memo-020619 OnMessage Inc. (R)
54. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000162-f424-d5ce-a3e7-ffac083e0000 Mason-Dixon
55. https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/tate-reeves-jim-hood-close-race-according-millsaps-college-poll/1018330001/ Chism Strategies/Millsaps College
56. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting. August 21, 2024.