2019 Ceuta Assembly election explained

The 2019 Ceuta Assembly election, was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 7th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta is the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allows Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.^{[1] [2] [3]}

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.^{[1] [2] [3]}

The Mayor-President is indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause requires that mayoral candidates earn the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly shall be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.^[3]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.^{[1] [2]}

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				MDyC		PDSC					Lead
2019 Assembly election	26 May 2019		56.9		31.1	25.6	6.2	7.0	4.5	1.0		22.4		1.5	5.5
La Verdad de Ceuta[4]	20 May 2019	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?			?		?	?
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019		64.0	21.4		36.3	–	–	12.0	–		24.0		4.8	14.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[5]	31 Mar–7 Apr 2019	?	?		30.0	20.1	5.1	6.5	9.1	–		22.4		2.3	7.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[6]	24–31 Mar 2019	?	?		29.4	20.3	5.1	6.4	9.4	–		22.6		2.3	6.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[7]	17–24 Mar 2019	?	?		29.2	21.0	5.3	6.7	8.6	–		22.7		2.3	6.5
La Verdad de Ceuta[8]	18 Mar 2019	3,423	?	23.0	17.3	6.4	9.9	1.2	–	–		36.5	1.1	–	13.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[9]	10–17 Mar 2019	?	?		28.4	20.0	5.0	6.6	7.2	–		27.0		2.3	1.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[10]	3–10 Mar 2019	?	?		28.0	19.9	5.1	6.6	7.5	–		27.0		2.4	1.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[11]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?		28.1	19.6	4.9	6.7	8.0	–		26.9		2.4	1.2
Sigma Dos/Ceuta Ahora[12]	14–19 Dec 2018	600	?		34.7	18.5	6.3	6.6	9.4	–		19.1		2.8	15.6
La Verdad de Ceuta[13]	22 Nov 2018	1,725	?		36.1	20.8	7.5	10.4	3.1	–	0.2	13.4	0.4	–	15.3
SyM Consulting[14]	7–9 Sep 2018	518	47.0		40.5	22.6	14.2	7.7	9.6	1.9	–	–	–	–	17.9
SyM Consulting[15]	24–25 Apr 2018	537	40.5		37.9	16.6	17.6	8.7	12.6	1.3	–	–	–	–	20.3
SyM Consulting[16] [17]	8–9 Feb 2018	497	43.1		42.7	16.1	15.5	8.4	11.5	1.3	–	–	–	–	26.6
La Verdad de Ceuta[18]	14 May 2017	8,088	?		41.5	13.8	10.4	10.3	10.2	2.1	1.2	–	6.9	–	27.7
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016		50.7		51.9	22.6		–	11.5	–		0.5		10.8	29.3
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015		54.4		44.9	23.1		–	13.3	–	1.3	–	14.1	–	21.8
2015 Assembly election	24 May 2015		48.0		45.7	14.0	13.3	11.2	6.0	1.8	1.6	1.2	–	–	31.7

Results

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Assembly of Ceuta election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	10,527	31.12	–14.62	9	–4
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	8,658	25.60	+11.56	7	+3
	Vox (Vox)	7,566	22.37	+21.15	6	+6
	Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC)	2,353	6.96	–4.21	2	–1
	Caballas Coalition (Caballas)	2,105	6.22	–7.05	1	–3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	1,537	4.54	–1.47	0	–1
	United We Can–United Left–Equo (Podemos–IU–Equo)1	505	1.49	–0.09	0	±0
	Coalition for Ceuta–Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (CPC–PDSC)	329	0.97	–0.85	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	42	0.12	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		204	0.60	–1.00
Total		33,826			25	±0
Valid votes		33,826	99.14	+0.61
Invalid votes		292	0.86	–0.61
Votes cast / turnout		34,118	54.54	+6.51
Abstentions		28,443	45.46	–6.51
Registered voters		62,561
Sources[19] [20] [21]

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot →		15 June 2019
Required majority →		13 out of 25
	Absentees
Sources[22]

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Notes and References

1. General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985 . Organic Law . 5 . . es . 19 June 1985 . 8 April 2018.
2. Web site: Representation of the people Institutional Act . juntaelectoralcentral.es . Central Electoral Commission . 16 June 2017.
3. Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995 . Law . 1 . . es . 13 March 1995 . 7 April 2018.
4. Web site: La última encuesta de La Verdad de Ceuta vuelve a situar a VOX como primera fuerza política el próximo 26M . es . La Verdad de Ceuta . 20 May 2019.
5. Web site: ElectoPanel municipal (12A): muchas ciudades pendientes de un concejal . es . Electomanía . 12 April 2019.
6. Web site: ElectoPanel municipales (4A): Madrid en Pie no consigue entrar en el Ayuntamiento . es . Electomanía . 4 April 2019.
7. Web site: ElectoPanel Municipales (28M). Mayorías ajustadas en varias ciudades . es . Electomanía . 28 March 2019.
8. Web site: VOX, el gran ganador de la última encuesta sobre intención de voto de La Verdad de Ceuta . es . La Verdad de Ceuta . 18 March 2019.
9. Web site: ElectoPanel para municipales (21M): situación estable en la última semana . es . Electomanía . 21 March 2019.
10. Web site: ElectoPanel grandes áreas metropolitanas 14M: la izquierda resiste en Valencia, Madrid se le escapa a Carmena . es . Electomanía . 14 March 2019.
11. Web site: ElectoPanel municipal: distintas mayorías posibles y mucha igualdad en varias ciudades . es . Electomanía . 7 March 2019.
12. Web site: PP 10 diputados, VOX 5-6, PSOE 5, Cs 2, MDyC 1-2 y Caballas 1 formarían el Pleno de la Asamblea . es . Ceuta Ahora . 23 December 2018.
13. Web site: VOX tendría la llave del próximo Gobierno en la ciudad, según la última encuesta de 'La Verdad de Ceuta' . es . La Verdad de Ceuta . 22 November 2018.
14. Web site: Estimación oleada Septiembre 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019 . es . SyM Consulting . 24 September 2018.
15. Web site: Estimación oleada Abril 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019 . es . SyM Consulting . 2 May 2018.
16. Web site: Estimación oleada Febrero 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019 . es . SyM Consulting . 15 February 2018.
17. Web site: CEUTA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting, Febrero 2018 . es . Electograph . 15 February 2018.
18. Web site: Un sondeo de "La Verdad de Ceuta" evidencia que en las próximas autonómicas ganaría el PP, pero con 12 escaños . es . La Verdad de Ceuta . 14 May 2017.
19. Web site: Resolución de 17 de septiembre de 2019, de la Presidencia de la Junta Electoral Central, por la que se procede a la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones locales convocadas por Real Decreto 209/2019, de 1 de abril, y celebradas el 26 de mayo de 2019, según los datos que figuran en las actas de proclamación remitidas por cada una de las Juntas Electorales de Zona. Provincias: Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta y Melilla . es . . 22 October 2021.
20. Web site: Electoral Results Consultation. Municipal. May 2019. City of Ceuta . es . . 1 November 2020.
21. Web site: Elecciones Municipales y Autonómicas en Ceuta (1979-2019) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 26 October 2021.
22. News: 15 June 2019 . Juan Jesús Vivas (PP),investido presidente de Ceuta sin apoyo de otros grupos . eldiario.es . 28 July 2019.