2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota explained

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.^[1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.

DFL primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Ali Chehem^[3]
• Gregg A. Iverson, perennial candidate
• Nick Leonard, attorney and activist^[4]
• Richard Painter, University of Minnesota Law School professor and former White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush^[5]
• Christopher Lovell Seymore Sr.

Declined

• Scott Dibble, state senator^[6]
• Keith Ellison, U.S. Representative^[7] (running for Minnesota Attorney General)
• Melisa Franzen, state senator^{[6] [8]}
• Betty McCollum, U.S. Representative^[9] (running for reelection)
• Rick Nolan, U.S. Representative^[9] (running for Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota)
• Collin Peterson, U.S. Representative^[9] (running for reelection)
• Jake Sullivan, former National Security Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden^[10]
• Lori Swanson, Attorney General of Minnesota (running for governor)
• Patricia Torres Ray, state senator^[6] (running for MN-5)
• Tim Walz, U.S. Representative (running for Governor)^[9]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Karin Housley, state senator^[11]

Eliminated in primary

• Bob Anderson, businessman^[12]
• Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey

Declined

• Sarah Anderson, Minnesota state representative
• Michele Bachmann, former U.S. Representative^[13]
• Michelle Benson, state senator^[14]
• Christopher Chamberlin (running for MN-05)^[15]
• Norm Coleman, former U.S. Senator (endorsed Karin Housley)^[16]
• Kurt Daudt, Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives
• Tom Emmer, U.S. Representative (endorsed Karin Housley)^[17]
• Paul Gazelka, Majority Leader of the Minnesota Senate^[14]
• Pete Hegseth, veteran, Fox News Contributor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
• Amy Koch, former Minnesota state senator^[18]
• Jason Lewis, U.S. Representative^[9]
• Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow^{[19] [20]}
• Jenifer Loon, state representative (endorsed Karin Housley)
• Stewart Mills III, businessman and nominee for MN-08 in 2014 and 2016^[9]
• Erik Paulsen, U.S. Representative
• Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota (ran for governor, lost)^{[21] [22]}
• Joyce Peppin, Majority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives
• Julie Rosen, Minnesota state senator^[14]

Results

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

• Jerry Trooien (independent), real estate developer^[23]
• Sarah Wellington (Legal Marijuana Now Party)^[24]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[25]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[26]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[28]		July 9, 2018
CNN[29]		July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[30]		November 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
	Tina Smith (D)	align="right"	$8,237,522	align="right"	$7,308,790	align="right"	$928,730
	Karin Housley (R)	align="right"	$4,049,032	align="right"	$3,689,562	align="right"	$359,470
Source: Federal Election Commission[31]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tina Smith (DFL)	Karin Housley (R)	Sarah	Other	Undecided
Change Research[32]	November 2–4, 2018	953	–	align=center	51%	42%	3%	2%[33]	–
Research Co.[34]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	align=center	49%	39%	–	2%	10%
SurveyUSA[35]	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 5.3%	align=center	48%	40%	–	5%	7%
St. Cloud State University[36]	October 15–30, 2018	420	–	align=center	44%	29%	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon[37]	October 15–17, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	47%	41%	1%	1%[38]	10%
Change Research[39]	October 12–13, 2018	1,413	–	align=center	46%	43%	5%	2%	2%
Marist College[40]	September 30 – October 4, 2018	637 LV	± 4.9%	align=center	54%	38%	–	<1%	7%
	860 RV	± 4.2%	align=center	52%	39%	–	<1%	9%
Mason-Dixon[41]	September 10–12, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	44%	37%	2%	2%	15%
SurveyUSA[42]	September 6–8, 2018	574	± 4.9%	align=center	48%	39%	–	2%	11%
Suffolk University[43]	August 17–20, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	44%	37%	2%	0%[44]	18%
Emerson College[45]	August 8–11, 2018	500	± 4.6%	align=center	32%	28%	–	–	align=center	41%
Marist College[46]	July 15–19, 2018	876	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	35%	–	1%	15%
BK Strategies (R)[47]	June 24–25, 2018	1,574	± 2.5%	align=center	48%	39%	–	–	13%

Results

Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin)
• Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler)
• Pine (largest city: Pine City)
• Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)
• Freeborn (largest city: Albert Lea)
• Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids)
• Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo)
• Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
• Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
• Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
• Kandiyohi (largest city: Willmar)
• Le Sueur (largest city: Le Sueur)
• Marshall (largest city: Warren)
• Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
• Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
• Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
• Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
• Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls)
• Renville (largest city: Olivia)
• Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison)
• Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville)
• Swift (largest city: Benson)
• Stevens (largest city: Morris)
• Traverse (largest city: Wheaton)
• Wabasha (largest city: Lake City)
• Waseca (largest city: Waseca)
• Watonwan (largest city: St. James)
• Yellow Medicine (largest city: Granite Falls)

By congressional district

Smith won four of Minnesota's eight congressional districts. Housley won the other four, including one that elected a Democrat.^[49]

District	Smith	Housley	Representative
1st	46.35%	48.61%		Tim Walz (115th Congress)
			Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)
2nd	50.52%	44.93%		Jason Lewis (115th Congress)
			Angie Craig (116th Congress)
3rd	54.07%	42.21%		Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)
			Dean Phillips (116th Congress)
4th	64.38%	30.73%		Betty McCollum
5th	76.99%	18.35%		Keith Ellison (115th Congress)
			Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)
6th	39.83%	55.21%		Tom Emmer
7th	40.23%	55.21%		Collin Peterson
8th	46.84%	48.28%		Rick Nolan (115th Congress)
			Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics

Smith!

Housley	No answer	% of voters
Gender
Men	49	49	2	46
Women	61	37	2	54
Age
18–24 years old	70	28	2	6
25–29 years old	55	42	3	5
30–39 years old	60	38	2	12
40–49 years old	51	45	4	13
50–64 years old	53	45	2	29
65 and older	55	44	1	35
Race
White	53	45	2	89
Black	85	12	3	5
Latino	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Race by gender
White men	46	52	2	41
White women	59	40	1	48
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	56	43	1	17
Some college education	48	48	4	24
Associate degree	47	51	2	17
Bachelor's degree	59	40	1	26
Advanced degree	69	29	2	16
Education and race
White college graduates	62	37	1	38
White no college degree	46	52	2	51
Non-white college graduates	72	28	N/A	4
Non-white no college degree	77	18	5	7
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	68	30	2	21
White women without college degrees	51	46	3	28
White men with college degrees	55	44	1	17
White men without college degrees	40	58	2	23
Non-whites	75	21	4	11
Income
Under $30,000	63	33	4	14
$30,000–49,999	54	43	3	20
$50,000–99,999	49	48	3	36
$100,000–199,999	54	43	3	23
Over $200,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Party ID
Democrats	96	4	N/A	39
Republicans	9	90	1	32
Independents	53	43	4	29
Party by gender
Democratic men	96	4	N/A	14
Democratic women	95	4	1	25
Republican men	7	91	2	15
Republican women	10	89	1	17
Independent men	47	49	4	16
Independent women	60	36	4	13
Ideology
Liberals	93	4	3	27
Moderates	67	31	2	39
Conservatives	11	87	2	33
Marital status
Married	50	48	2	67
Unmarried	65	33	2	33
Gender by marital status
Married men	47	52	1	31
Married women	52	45	3	36
Unmarried men	55	40	5	15
Unmarried women	74	26	N/A	17
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	53	46	1	12
No	58	40	2	88
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	75	23	2	49
Immigration	23	75	2	22
Economy	32	65	3	19
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	8
Area type
Urban	66	31	3	40
Suburban	52	45	3	32
Rural	42	56	2	28
Source: CNN[50]

See also

• 2018 Minnesota elections

External links

• Elections & Voting – Minnesota Secretary of State
• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Karin Housley (R) for Senate
• Tina Smith (D) for Senate
• Jerry Trooien (I) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: United States Senate special election in Minnesota, 2018 – Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US.
2. Web site: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Tina Smith Will Replace Al Franken in U.S. Senate. Domonoske, Camila. NPR. December 13, 2017. December 13, 2017.
3. Web site: Candidate Filings. candidates.sos.state.mn.us. 2018-06-08.
4. News: Magan. Christopher. Fellow Democrat Nick Leonard to challenge Tina Smith for Senate seat. February 6, 2018. St. Paul Pioneer Press. February 5, 2018.
5. News: Richard Painter exits GOP, launches bid against DFL Sen. Tina Smith. Keen. Judy. April 30, 2018. Star Tribune. May 1, 2018.
6. News: Senate vacancy creates opportunity, complications galore. Minnesota Public Radio. Bakst. Brian. December 8, 2017. December 13, 2017.
7. News: Rep. Keith Ellison won't run for U.S. Senate in '18. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. December 13, 2017. December 13, 2017.
8. News: Minnesota Democrats aim to clear Smith's path for 2018 bid. https://web.archive.org/web/20171215005956/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minnesota-democrats-aim-to-clear-smiths-path-for-2018-bid/2017/12/14/93148ad4-e115-11e7-b2e9-8c636f076c76_story.html. dead. December 15, 2017. The Washington Post. Potter. Kyle. December 14, 2017. December 14, 2017.
9. News: What Happens to Franken's Seat If He Resigns?. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. December 6, 2017. December 13, 2017.
10. News: Franken exit could be game-changer for control of Senate. December 7, 2017. NBC News. Allen. Jonathan. December 7, 2017.
11. Web site: Washington County Republican Karin Housley wants Al Franken's Senate seat. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Orrick. Dave. December 19, 2017. December 19, 2017.
12. News: Second GOP candidate seeks to unseat Smith. Pugmire. Tim. January 17, 2018. January 25, 2018. Minnesota Public Radio.
13. News: Bachmann considering running for Franken's seat. Jordain. Carney. January 2, 2018. The Hill.
14. News: Minnesota's 2018 special Senate election for Al Franken's seat sets up seismic political shift. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. December 9, 2017. December 13, 2017.
15. Web site: As Dayton weighs Franken replacement, who may run in 2018?. Minnesota Public Radio. Pugmire. Tim. December 7, 2017. December 7, 2017.
16. Web site: NEW: Former Sen. Norm Coleman says on his personal Facebook he won't run for Franken's #mnsen seat in 2018pic.twitter.com/dktnkRzoMs. Kyle. Potter.
17. News: Emmer will seek re-election in 6th Congressional District. ABC Newspapers. January 18, 2018.
18. Web site: Minnesota Republicans are chattering about who will run for Franken's Senate seat in 2018. December 8, 2017.
19. Web site: Should @realMikeLindell step forward as the next Senator of Minnesota?. Kevin. McCullough. Twitter.
20. Web site: Will @RealMikeLindell run for U.S. Senate from Minnesota?. Kevin. McCullough. Twitter.
21. News: Tim Pawlenty eyes return to national stage — but in a new GOP era. Potter. Kyle. Twin Cities Pioneer Press. December 21, 2017. en-US.
22. Web site: Pawlenty opts against senate run on Fox News. . 16 January 2018 .
23. News: Controversial developer Jerry Trooien running for U.S. Senate as independent. Coolican. J. Patrick. April 16, 2018. Star Tribune. June 12, 2018.
24. News: Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices. Golden. Erin. June 16, 2018. Star Tribune. June 17, 2018.
25. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
26. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
27. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Ratings Changes. www.centerforpolitics.org.
28. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
29. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
30. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
31. Web site: Campaign finance data . October 31, 2018.
32. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105224757/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059564017641914368 Change Research
33. Jerry Trooien (I) with 2%
34. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_04Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
35. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eedbecb7-3e86-4c18-9e63-32cc003abf74 SurveyUSA
36. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tbm8hPcbiLAvcSZ3oxqB79CmWNlyCNsl/view?usp=sharing St. Cloud State University
37. http://www.startribune.com/the-poll-numbers-minnesota-senate-race/498049881/ Mason-Dixon
38. Jerry Trooien (I) with 1%
39. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nHaf6GeLgwHTUaJyvQMQcbP7ATsYv0vWAZgqFTKwYCo/htmlview Change Research
40. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MN-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810081524.pdf Marist College
41. http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-big-lead-for-amy-klobuchar-smaller-edge-for-tina-smith-in-u-s-senate-races/493424451/ Mason-Dixon
42. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cf708ecc-dd5c-40c6-8d4e-df81085c89b9 SurveyUSA
43. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_22_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
44. Jerry Trooien (I) with 0%
45. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf Emerson College
46. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Minnesota-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_July-26-2018_1807251147.pdf Marist College
47. https://www.outstate.us/politics/minnesota-statewide-poll-june-24-25-2018/ BK Strategies (R)
48. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf Emerson College
49. Web site: Daily Kos.
50. News: Minnesota Senate special election exit poll . November 20, 2018 . . en.