2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia explained

The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's deepening partisan lean and his declining popularity. Manchin ultimately won a second full term, though by a much narrower margin of 3.33% compared to his 2012 landslide. Manchin outperformed the margins of defeat from both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 40 percentage points.

As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democrat won a congressional and/or non-judicial statewide election in West Virginia.

Background

West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but is now deeply red at the federal and state levels. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 13.1%. From 1959 to 2015, West Virginia was exclusively represented in the U.S. Senate by Democrats.

In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama by 26.7% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties. Manchin's 2012 re-election against Raese was a rematch between the two, as Manchin previously defeated Raese in the 2010 special election where he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.

Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.

Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections.^[1] Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.

Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Paula Jean Swearengin, social and environmental activist^[3]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Patrick Morrisey, Attorney General of West Virginia^{[5] [6] [7] [8]}

Eliminated in the primary

• Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy^[9]
• Bo Copley, coal miner^[10]
• Evan Jenkins, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 3rd congressional district (2015–2018)^[11]
• Jack Newbrough, truck driver and navy veteran^[12]
• Tom Willis, army veteran^[13]

Declined

• Ryan Ferns, Majority Leader of the West Virginia Senate (running for re-election)^{[14] [15]}
• David McKinley, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2011–2023) (running for re-election)^{[16] [17]}
• Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present) (running for re-election)

Debates

Host
network! rowspan="2"

Date	Link(s)	Participants
Evan Jenkins		Patrick Morrisey	Don Blankenship	Bo Copley	Jack Newbrough	Tom Willis
Fox News	May 1, 2018	[18]	Invited	Invited	Invited	–	–	–
WVPB	April 23, 2018	[19]	Invited	Invited	Invited	Invited	Invited	Invited

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Don Blankenship	Evan Jenkins	Patrick Morrisey	Other	Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey)[20]	April 22–23, 2018	500	± 4.4%	15%	26%	align=center	28%	–	18%
Fox News[21]	April 18–22, 2018	985	± 3.0%	16%	align=center	25%	21%	8%[22]	24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC)[23]	April 17–19, 2018	411	± 4.9%	12%	20%	align=center	24%	5%[24]	align=center	39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey)[25]	March 13, 2018	500	± 4.4%	23%	17%	align=center	24%	4%[26]	–
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins)[27]	March 5–6, 2018	400	–	27%	align=center	29%	19%	10%[28]	15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins)[29]	February 5–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	18%	align=center	33%	25%	12%	12%
	–	align=center	42%	36%	–	22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC)[30]	October 19–22, 2017	400	± 4.9%	–	34%	align=center	40%	–	26%

Results

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominated

• Rusty Hollen^[31]

Constitution Party

Candidates

Denied ballot access

• Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election.^[32] Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate.^[33] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.^[34]

Endorsements

General election

Candidates

• Mark Brazaitis (Independent, write-in), author and deputy mayor of Morgantown, West Virginia^[35]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[36]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[37]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[38]		November 5, 2018
CNN[39]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[40]		November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[41]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[42]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[43]		November 6, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
	Joe Manchin (D)	$8,872,162	$6,459,930	$4,200,530
	Patrick Morrisey (R)	$4,943,056	$3,315,300	$1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission[44]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Manchin (D)	Patrick Morrisey (R)	Rusty Hollen (L)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[45]	October 28–31, 2018	1,013	± 3.2%	align=center	47%	42%	3%	–	8%
Research America Inc.[46]	October 19–30, 2018	400	± 4.9%	align=center	45%	40%	11%	–	5%
Strategic Research Associates[47]	October 12–19, 2018	650	± 3.8%	align=center	52%	36%	4%	–	8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC)[48]	October 16–18, 2018	600	± 4.0%	42%	align=center	44%	3%	–	12%
	45%	align=center	47%	–	–	8%
Vox Populi Polling[49]	October 13–15, 2018	789	± 3.5%	align=center	53%	47%	–	–	–
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United)[50]	October 11–13, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	45%	–	2%	3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC)[51]	October 7–9, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	41%	40%	8%	–	–
Strategic Research Associates[52]	September 17–26, 2018	650	± 3.8%	align=center	46%	38%	3%	–	13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey)[53]	September 24–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	45%	–	–	10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF)[54]	September 23–25, 2018	612	± 4.1%	align=center	47%	43%	5%	–	5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin)[55]	September 19–23, 2018	601	± 4.0%	align=center	48%	36%	4%	–	–
Emerson College[56]	September 13–15, 2018	825	± 3.5%	align=center	45%	33%	–	6%	16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC)[57]	August 23–26, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	41%	–	–	12%
Research America Inc.[58]	August 16–26, 2018	404	± 4.9%	align=center	46%	38%	–	–	16%
Trafalgar Group (R)[59]	July 13–16, 2018	1,158	± 2.9%	align=center	50%	40%	2%	–	8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[60]	June 11 – July 2, 2018	892	± 5.5%	align=center	53%	40%	–	–	6%
Monmouth University[61]	June 14–19, 2018	653	± 3.8%	align=center	49%	42%	–	3%	6%
Public Policy Polling[62]	June 12–13, 2018	633	–	align=center	49%	42%	–	–	9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC)[63]	May 15–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	40%	–	–	–
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin)[64]	May 13–16, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	50%	42%	–	–	–
	align=center	47%	40%	4%	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R)[65]	May 10, 2018	400	± 4.9%	44%	align=center	46%	–	–	11%
Zogby Analytics[66]	September 27–30, 2017	320	± 5.5%	align=center	45%	38%	–	–	17%
Research America Inc.[67]	August 11–20, 2017	400	± 4.9%	align=center	51%	37%	–	–	12%
Harper Polling[68]	November 16–17, 2016	500	± 4.4%	align=center	57%	35%	–	–	8%

with Don Blankenship

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Manchin (D)	Patrick Morrisey (R)	Don	Other	Undecided
Research America Inc.	August 16–26, 2018	404	± 4.9%	align=center	45%	34%	8%	–	13%
Monmouth University	June 14–19, 2018	653	± 3.8%	align=center	48%	39%	4%	2%	6%
Public Policy Polling	June 12–13, 2018	633	–	align=center	46%	35%	11%	–	7%
Gravis Marketing[69]	May 22, 2018	543	± 4.2%	align=center	51%	39%	5%	–	–

with generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Manchin (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC)	April 17–19, 2018	–	–	37%	align=center	41%	20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[70]	February 12 – March 5, 2018	1,591	± 3.5%	43%	align=center	52%	5% with Evan Jenkins Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Joe Manchin (D) Evan Jenkins (R) Undecided Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% align=center 49% 36% 15% Research America Inc. August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% align=center 50% 40% 10% Harper Polling November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% align=center 51% 39% 10% with Alex Mooney Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Joe Manchin (D) Alex Mooney (R) Undecided Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% align=center 49% 35% 17% Harper Polling November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% align=center 58% 28% 14% with David McKinley Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Joe Manchin (D) David McKinley (R) Undecided Harper Polling November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% align=center 54% 34% 12% Public Policy Polling[71] April 29 – May 1, 2016 1,201 ± 2.8% align=center 46% 36% 18% with generic Democratic and Republican Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Generic Democrat Generic Republican Other Undecided National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) April 17–19, 2018 – – 37% align=center 49% 4% 11% Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 35% align=center 40% 6% 19% with Carte Goodwin

Notes and References

1. News: Edmondson. Catie. October 8, 2018. Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018). en-US. The New York Times. 2021-01-10. 0362-4331.
2. News: Joe Manchin won't run for West Virginia governor. Politico. Cheney. Kyle. April 19, 2015. April 20, 2015.
3. News: 'Justice Democrat' Coal Miner's Daughter Paula Swearingen Announces Primary Challenge Against West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. RealClearPolitics. Hains. Tim. May 9, 2017. May 9, 2017.
4. Web site: Even Red State Republicans Want Medicare For All. September 23, 2017. YouTube.
5. Web site: West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey Will Run for Senate in 2018 . July 10, 2017. www.usnews.com. PDF.
6. Web site: 10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018. The Hill. Kamisar. Ben. November 16, 2016. November 17, 2016.
7. News: 2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators. Politico. Schor. Elana. Everett. Burgess. November 18, 2016. November 18, 2016.
8. Geraghty . Jim . In West Virginia, a Rising Republican Star Threatens the Nation's Most Vulnerable Democratic Senator . February 14, 2017 . . February 22, 2017.
9. Web site: Former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship to run for U.S. Senate. WCHS-TV. Bass. Kennie. Morris. Jeff. November 29, 2017. November 29, 2017.
10. Web site: Coal Worker Who Confronted Hillary Clinton Takes on Joe Manchin. Roll Call. Lesniewski. Niels. May 2, 2017. May 2, 2017.
11. News: Jenkins to challenge Manchin for U.S. Senate seat. WSAZ-TV. May 8, 2017. May 8, 2017.
12. Web site: Weirton resident seeking Senate seat. The Weirton Daily Times. Howell. Craig. September 24, 2017. September 26, 2017.
13. Web site: WV MetroNews – Willis enters US Senate race. wvmetronews.com. January 4, 2018.
14. RyanFernsWV . Ferns . Ryan . 837375029293821952 . March 2, 2017 . @ReganWV wasn't trying to dodge. Let me be more clear. If a conservative who is more qualified runs, then I'm not going to. . April 3, 2017 .
15. RyanFernsWV . Ferns . Ryan . 898532095529701376 . August 18, 2017 . @ASourAppleTree Running for reelection . August 18, 2017 .
16. Web site: McKinley says it's too early to announce campaign plans. State Journal. Marks. Rusty. May 12, 2017. May 18, 2017.
17. Web site: McKinley to run for re-election in 2018. West Virginia MetroNews. Thomas. Alex. May 30, 2017. May 30, 2017.
18. Web site: West Virginia GOP Senate Debate 2018. May 1, 2018. Fox News. May 2, 2018. May 2, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180502211308/http://video.foxnews.com/v/5779116613001/?playlist_id=2114913880001#sp=show-clips. dead.
19. Web site: Republican Senate Debate. West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 23, 2018. YouTube.
20. Web site: WV-Sen: Public Opinion Strategies (R) For Patrick Morrisey (April 2018) | PDF. Scribd.
21. Web site: Fox News Poll results 4/24 | Fox News. . April 24, 2018 .
22. Tom Willis with 4 percent, Bo Copley with 2 percent, and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
23. Web site: National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC). https://web.archive.org/web/20180424135858/https://www.gopac.org/2018/04/wvsurvey/. dead. April 24, 2018.
24. Tom Willis with 3 percent, Bo Copley and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
25. Web site: Morrisey's Poll Shows Him Leading for Senate.
26. Bo Copley with 2.5 percent, Tom Willis with 1.4 percent, and Jack Newbrough with "an unregistered amount"
27. Web site: Morrisey's poll shows him leading for Senate.
28. Tom Willis and Jack Newbrough with 4 percent; Bo Copley with 2 percent
29. Web site: Harper Polling (R-Jenkins).
30. Web site: Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC).
31. Web site: WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services. services.sos.wv.gov. en. 2018-06-16. June 16, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180616130724/https://services.sos.wv.gov/apps/elections/candidate-search/candidate.aspx?candidate=15923. dead.
32. News: Isenstadt. Alex. Blankenship to wage third-party bid after losing primary. May 21, 2018. Politico. May 21, 2018.
33. Web site: Don Blankenship To Mount Third-Party Senate Bid After Losing W.Va. GOP Primary. .
    Web site: Convicted Coal Executive Starts Third-Party Ballot Petition Drive In W.Va.. June 6, 2018.
34. News: Montellaro . Zach . POLITICO . August 29, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . West Virginia Supreme Court denies Blankenship a spot on Senate ballot .
35. Web site: Mark Brazaitis announces write-in U.S. Senate candidacy - Dominion Post. www.dominionpost.com. September 3, 2018.
36. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
37. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
38. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017.
39. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
40. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
41. News: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. 2018-08-18.
42. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
43. News: West Virginia - 2018 Senate Forecast. Silver. Nate. September 11, 2018. FiveThirtyEight. 2018-11-01. en-US.
44. Web site: Campaign finance data. September 2, 2018.
45. Web site: News & Stories Archives. September 16, 2024. Emerson Today.
46. Web site: Research America Inc..
47. Web site: Strategic Research Associates. https://web.archive.org/web/20181104221754/http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_WV_October_Survey.pdf. dead. November 4, 2018.
48. Web site: Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC). https://web.archive.org/web/20181024223454/https://www.nrsc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/10-18-NRSC-WV-Ballot-Memo-002.pdf. dead. October 24, 2018.
49. Web site: https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WV-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Results-October-2018.pdf. https://web.archive.org/web/20181018161828/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WV-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Results-October-2018.pdf . October 18, 2018 .
50. Web site: The Polling Company (R-Citizens United). .
51. Web site: GOP poll: Manchin-Morrisey race tight in final month of election. Alex. Thomas. October 12, 2018.
52. Web site: Strategic Research Associates.
53. Web site: Internal GOP poll: Morrisey, Manchin tied in W.Va. Senate race. Lisa. Hagen. September 27, 2018.
54. Web site: The Tarrance Group (R-SLF). .
55. Web site: NEW POLL: Manchin Leads Morrisey by 12. us16.campaign-archive.com.
56. Web site: For the Media, Emerson College. emerson.edu.
57. Web site: 35th PAC on Twitter: "NEW on US Senate race in West Virginia: Pre-Lab…. August 30, 2018. archive.ph.
58. Web site: Research America Inc..
59. Web site: WV Sen Poll July '18 Report & Crosstabs Final.pdf. Google Docs.
60. Web site: Google Drive: Sign-in. accounts.google.com.
61. Web site: Monmouth University.
62. Web site: BJO WV Poll Results - June2018 | PDF | West Virginia | United States Presidential Election, 2016. Scribd.
63. Web site: Democratic poll: Manchin up double digits in West Virginia - POLITICO. .
64. Web site: WV-Sen: Global Strategy Group (D) For Joe Manchin (May 2018) | PDF. Scribd.
65. https://wpaintel.com/wv_senate_180511/ WPA Intelligence (R)
66. Web site: Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll℠: Manchin leads potential foes in West Virginia senate race; Generic republican beating democrat. zogbyanalytics.com.
67. Web site: MetroNews West Virginia Poll: How would Manchin fare versus Jenkins or Morrisey?. Brad. McElhinny. September 1, 2017.
68. Web site: Harper Polling. https://web.archive.org/web/20161130111239/http://harperpolling.com/polls/west-virginia-senate-2018-general-election-poll. dead. November 30, 2016.
69. Web site: Gravis Marketing Poll: Manchin Leads Morrisey by 13 in West Virginia Senate Race . https://web.archive.org/web/20180729173041/http://orlando-politics.com/2018/05/27/gravis-marketing-poll-manchin-leads-morrisey-by-13-in-west-virginia-senate-race/ . 2018-07-29.
70. Web site: Google Drive: Sign-in. accounts.google.com.
71. Web site: Public Policy Polling.
72. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.
73. Web site: WV – Election Night Reporting. October 12, 2020.