2018 United States Senate election in Nevada explained

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated by Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen.

Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.^{[1] [2]} Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor of Nevada.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.^[3]

Background

Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.^{[4] [5]}

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks^[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.^{[7] [8]}

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.^[9]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Sherry Brooks
• Sarah Gazala, teacher^[10]
• Vic Harrell
• Tom Heck
• Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator^[11]

Withdrew

• Danny Tarkanian, businessman, former attorney and perennial candidate (ran for NV-03 and lost)^{[12] [13]}

Declined

• Mark Amodei, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election and won)^{[14] [15]}

Polling

with Danny Tarkanian

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller	Danny Tarkanian	Undecided
JMC Analytics[16]	October 24–26, 2017	500	± 4.4%	38%	align=center	44%	17%
JMC Analytics[17]	August 24–25, 2017	700	± 3.7%	31%	align=center	39%	31%
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller)[18]	August 14–16, 2017	300	± 5.8%	align=center	55%	33%	12%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Danny Burleigh
• David Drew Knight
• Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[19]
• Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
• Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative for NV-03^[20]
• Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016^[21]

Declined

• Stephen Cloobeck, businessman (endorsed Heller)^{[22] [23]}
• Aaron Ford, Majority Leader of the Nevada Senate (ran for Attorney General and won)^{[24] [25]}
• Steven Horsford, former U.S. Representative (ran for NV-04 and won)^[24]
• Ruben Kihuen, U.S. Representative (endorsed Rosen)^[24]
• Kate Marshall, former state treasurer, nominee for Secretary of State in 2014 and nominee for NV-02 in 2011 (ran for Lieutenant Governor and won)^{[26] [27]}
• Rory Reid, former chairman of the Clark County Commission, nominee for governor in 2010 and son of former U.S. Senator Harry Reid^{[28] [29]}
• Dina Titus, U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2006 (ran for re-election and won)^{[24] [30] [31]}
• Steve Wolfson, Clark County District Attorney (ran for re-election and won)^{[32] [33]}

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declared

• Kamau Bakari^[34]
• Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate^[35]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 19, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[36]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[37]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[38]		November 5, 2018
CNN[39]		October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[40]		November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[41]		October 26, 2018
Fox News[42]		October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[43]		November 6, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
	Dean Heller (R) Incumbent	align="right"	$14,525,094	align="right"	$12,538,859	align="right"	$2,211,457
	Jacky Rosen (D)	align="right"	$21,571,221	align="right"	$20,817,629	align="right"	$768,851
Source: Federal Election Commission[44]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Jacky Rosen (D)	Tim Hagan (L)	None of these	Other	Undecided
HarrisX[45]	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	align=center	47%	–	–	–	–
HarrisX[46]	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College[47]	November 1–4, 2018	1,197	± 3.0%	45%	align=center	49%	–	–	3%	4%
HarrisX[48]	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	45%	–	–	–	–
HarrisX[49]	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	45%	44%	–	–	–	–
HarrisX[50]	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	43%	–	–	–	–
Trafalgar Group (R)[51]	October 29 – November 1, 2018	2,587	± 1.9%	align=center	49%	46%	–	–	2%	3%
HarrisX[52]	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	45%	45%	–	–	–	–
HarrisX[53]	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	43%	align=center	46%	–	–	–	–
CNN/SSRS[54]	October 24–29, 2018	622 LV	± 4.8%	45%	align=center	48%	2%	4%	0%	1%
	807 RV	± 4.2%	41%	align=center	44%	4%	8%	0%	3%
Gravis Marketing[55]	October 24–26, 2018	773	± 3.5%	45%	align=center	47%	–	–	–	7%
Ipsos[56]	October 12–19, 2018	1,137	± 3.0%	align=center	47%	41%	–	–	8%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[57]	October 15–16, 2018	648	± 3.9%	46%	align=center	48%	–	–	–	7%
Vox Populi Polling[58]	October 13–15, 2018	614	± 3.7%	49%	align=center	51%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College[59]	October 10–12, 2018	625	± 4.2%	align=center	48%	41%	–	–	3%	8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[60]	October 8–10, 2018	642	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	45%	–	–	1%	7%
NBC News/Marist[61]	September 30 – October 3, 2018	574 LV	± 5.5%	align=center	44%	42%	8%	2%	<1%	4%
	align=center	46%	44%	–	5%	1%	4%
	780 RV	± 4.5%	align=center	42%	41%	8%	3%	<1%	6%
	align=center	45%	43%	–	6%	1%	6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[62]	September 19 – October 2, 2018	513	± 5.0%	align=center	45%	44%	–	–	4%	7%
CNN/SSRS[63]	September 25–29, 2018	693 LV	± 4.6%	43%	align=center	47%	4%	5%	0%	1%
	851 RV	± 4.1%	40%	align=center	43%	5%	10%	0%	2%
Ipsos[64]	September 7–17, 2018	1,039	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	43%	–	–	4%	8%
Gravis Marketing[65]	September 11–12, 2018	700	± 3.7%	45%	align=center	47%	–	–	–	8%
Suffolk University[66]	September 5–10, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	align=center	42%	2%	2%	4%[67]	9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[68]	August 20–21, 2018	528	± 4.3%	43%	align=center	48%	–	–	–	–
Suffolk University[69]	July 24–29, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	41%	40%	2%	5%	3%[70]	9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[71]	June 11 – July 2, 2018	1,097	± 5.5%	45%	align=center	48%	–	–	–	7%
Gravis Marketing[72]	June 23–26, 2018	630	± 3.9%	41%	align=center	45%	–	–	–	14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)[73]	April 30 – May 1, 2018	637	± 3.9%	42%	align=center	44%	–	–	–	14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[74]	April 2–23, 2018	1,332	± 5.0%	44%	align=center	50%	–	–	–	6%
The Mellman Group[75]	April 12–19, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	40%	39%	–	–	–	21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[76]	March 15–17, 2018	720	± 3.7%	39%	align=center	44%	–	–	–	17%
Public Policy Polling[77]	June 23–25, 2017	648	± 3.9%	41%	align=center	42%	–	–	–	17% <	-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = --> Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Dean Heller (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[78] July 26–27, 2017 847 ± 3.6% 31% align=center 50% 18% Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care)[79] June 13–14, 2017 706 ± 3.4% 39% align=center 46% 14%

Notes and References

1. Web site: Sen. Heller Considers Run For Governor In 2018. Hagar, Ray. Nevada News & Views. May 5, 2016. November 25, 2016.
2. Web site: Fresh off 2016 losses, Democrats target 2018 Senate races. Rindels, Michelle. Nevada Appeal. November 25, 2016. November 25, 2016. November 26, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161126161445/http://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/government/fresh-off-2016-losses-democrats-target-2018-senate-races/. dead.
3. News: United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018 - Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US.
4. Web site: Donald Trump threatened Dean Heller on health care. Heller was sitting next to him.. Cillizza. Chris. CNN. July 19, 2017 . July 20, 2017.
5. News: Trump Threatens Sen. Dean Heller at Lunch, May Have Found Trumpcare Patsy. Stahl. Jeremy. July 19, 2017. Slate. July 20, 2017. en-US. 1091-2339.
6. News: Unclear if Nevada Sen. Dean Heller still supports Kavanaugh. Reno Gazette Journal. 2018-10-05. en.
7. News: Heller backs Kavanaugh, and Trump-ordered FBI probe, as drama unfolds on Capitol Hill. Reno Gazette Journal. 2018-10-05. en.
8. News: Planned Parenthood targets Dean Heller on Kavanaugh comments in ad. Hellmann. Jessie. 2018-10-04. The Hill. 2018-10-05. en.
9. Web site: Ostermeier . Eric . Jacky Rosen's Historic 2018 US Senate Bid . Smart Politics . July 27, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181124143023/http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2017/07/27/jacky-rosens-historic-2018-us-senate-bid/ . 24 November 2018.
10. Web site: GAZALA, SARAH - Candidate overview. FEC.gov.
11. News: Sen. Dean Heller rules out Nevada governor bid, will seek re-election in 2018. Howell Jr., Tom. The Washington Times. December 29, 2016. December 29, 2016.
12. Web site: Tarkanian announces bid for U.S. Senate, says will challenge Heller in Republican primary in 2018. The Nevada Independent. Messerly. Megan. August 8, 2017. August 8, 2017.
13. Web site: Tarkanian drops Heller primary challenge to run for House seat. CNN. Bradner. Eric. March 16, 2018. March 16, 2018.
14. News: Hagar. Ray. Hagar: Amodei wants to be Nevada governor - if Heller doesn't. August 5, 2015. Reno Gazette-Journal. August 6, 2015.
15. News: Richardson. Seth A.. Amodei says he won't run for governor. January 18, 2017. Reno Gazette-Journal. January 18, 2017.
16. http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Nevada-Senate-Executive-Summary.pdf JMC Analytics
17. https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Nevada-Senate-Executive-Summary.pdf JMC Analytics
18. https://web.archive.org/web/20170829035302/https://www.deanheller.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Heller-Campaign-Memo.pdf The Tarrance Group (R-Heller)
19. Web site: Candidates throwing their name in the ring early. The Laughlin Times. Denevan. Jennifer. June 29, 2017. September 12, 2017. June 29, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170629190743/http://www.mohavedailynews.com/laughlin_times/candidates-throwing-their-name-in-the-ring-early/article_e7e1293c-5cef-11e7-9fc6-5779ac35521c.html. dead.
20. Web site: Rosen officially announces Senate bid, says Reid encouraged her to run. The Nevada Independent. Messerly. Megan. July 6, 2017. July 6, 2017.
21. Web site: Henderson attorney wants to challenge for Dean Heller's Senate seat. Las Vegas Review-Journal. Lochhead. Colton. April 28, 2017. May 1, 2017.
22. Web site: One person who is mulling a run for Senate (and maybe gov) is Stephen Cloobeck. Twitter. Ralston. Jon. December 1, 2016. December 2, 2016.
23. Web site: Cloobeck, huge Democratic donor and potential gov candidate, to endorse Heller. The Nevada Independent. Ralston. Jon. April 26, 2017. April 26, 2017.
24. Web site: Democrats salivating about beating Heller, have everything but a candidate. The Nevada Independent. Ralston. Jon. February 8, 2017. February 10, 2017.
25. News: Democratic Senate Leader Aaron Ford announces attorney general bid, setting up likely race to replace Laxalt. The Nevada Independent. Snyder. Riley. September 12, 2017. September 12, 2017.
26. Web site: Marshall: I'm considering a U.S. Senate bid. The Nevada Independent. Ralston. Jon. April 25, 2017. April 26, 2017.
27. Web site: Former state Treasurer Kate Marshall announces her bid for lieutenant governor. The Nevada Independent. Valley. Jackie. September 13, 2017. September 13, 2017.
28. News: 10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018. Kamisar, Ben. The Hill. November 16, 2016. November 28, 2016.
29. Web site: At this early point in @SenDeanHeller's reelex, Dems are unsure how deeply Harry Reid will get involved. Twitter. Railey. Kimberly. February 8, 2017. February 8, 2017.
30. Web site: Titus 'thinking about' run against Heller in 2018. Las Vegas Sun. Hagar. Ray. March 30, 2017. April 3, 2017.
31. Web site: Titus skips Senate race, will run for re-election to Congress. Las Vegas Review-Journal. Martin. Gary. September 27, 2017. September 27, 2017.
32. Web site: Clark Co DA Steve Wolfson says he's been approached to run vs Heller in '18. But says "I'm continuing discussions" on what he might run for. Twitter. Rindels. Michelle. March 29, 2017. April 3, 2017.
33. Web site: Clark County DA Steve Wolfson announces re-election bid. Las Vegas Review-Journal. Lochhead. Colton. August 16, 2017. August 16, 2017.
34. Web site: Nevada Secretary of State : 2018 Filed Candidates - Non-Judicial. nvsos.gov. en. 2018-03-16.
35. Web site: Barry Michaels U.S. Senate Nevada 2018 - Challenges Federal Gun Control Act. Barry Michaels. EIN Presswire. August 9, 2017. September 11, 2017.
36. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
37. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
38. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate. Center for Politics. en-US. 2018-04-08.
39. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
40. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
41. News: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. 2018-08-18.
42. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
43. Web site: 2018 Midterm Election Forecast: Senate - Nevada. FiveThirtyEight. October 29, 2018.
44. Web site: Campaign finance data. October 31, 2018.
45. https://web.archive.org/web/20181106214819/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
46. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105225346/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
47. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/final-emerson-battleground-polls-finds-democratic-momentum-florida-nevada-south-dakota-arizona-republicans-poised-take-missouri-0 Emerson College
48. https://archive.today/20181105002949/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
49. https://archive.today/20181104183155/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
50. https://archive.today/20181102205016/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
51. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rl04xWVpXhigzmKp5NObIfStKQLNPzQa/view Trafalgar Group (R)
52. https://archive.today/20181101231909/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
53. https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
54. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/31/rel2_nv.pdf CNN/SSRS
55. http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nevada-October-27-2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
56. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html Ipsos
57. http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NevadaResults1.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
58. https://web.archive.org/web/20181018161811/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NV-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Results-October-2018.pdf Vox Populi Polling
59. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus Emerson College
60. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html NYT Upshot/Siena College
61. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_NV-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810051153.pdf NBC News/Marist
62. http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-KFF-Election-Tracking-Poll-Health-Care-in-the-2018-Midterms Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS
63. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/01/rel1_nv.pdf CNN/SSRS
64. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/election-data-CA-FL-TX-NV-AZ Ipsos
65. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Nevada_(September_13_2018)_v2.pdf Gravis Marketing
66. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_11_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
67. Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2%
68. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-poll-shows-slightly-more-nevadans-than-not-think-heller-should-oppose-kavanaugh/ Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
69. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_31_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
70. Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0%
71. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
72. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Nevada_Gravis_July_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
73. https://www.scribd.com/document/378207570/Nevada-HC-April-18-2 Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)
74. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-wXoFthHd-fsFnJb5ZsmoZtS-Q9Xn7MV/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
75. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/all-the-poll-information-fit-to-publish/ The Mellman Group
76. https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-NV-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
77. https://www.scribd.com/document/352321710/NVToplines-1?irgwc=1&content=27795&campaign=VigLink&ad_group=3073860&keyword=ft500noi&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate Public Policy Polling
78. http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NV-July-31-Toplines-1.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)
79. https://www.scribd.com/document/351703448/NevadaResults-06-14-17 Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care)
80. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/titus-poll-heller-vulnerable-in-dead-heat-with-her Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
81. Web site: Nevada | Full Senate results. cnn.com.
82. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.