2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota explained

The 2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Republican state House of Representatives member Jim Newberger. This election was held alongside a special election for Minnesota's other Senate seat, which was held by Al Franken until he resigned in January 2018. U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections were also held.

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.^[1] This is the last time that a Democratic candidate won a majority of Minnesota's counties in a statewide election.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Steve Carlson^[3]
• Stephen A. Emery
• David R. Groves
• Leonard J. Richards

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Jim Newberger, state representative^[4] (Minnesota GOP convention endorsed)^[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Merrill Anderson, Past Candidate (Mayor of Minneapolis), Past Candidate (Governor of Minnesota)
• Rae Hart Anderson
• Rocky De La Fuente, 2016 Reform Party Presidential Nominee and perennial candidate

Declined

• Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota^[6] (running for governor)

Results

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

• Paula M. Overby (Green Party)^[7]
• Dennis Schuller (Legal Marijuana Now Party)^[8]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[9]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[10]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[12]		July 9, 2018
CNN[13]		July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[14]		November 5, 2018

Debates

On August 24, MPR News hosted a debate between Amy Klobuchar and Jim Newberger at the Minnesota State Fair.^[15]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	align="right"	$10,139,499	align="right"	$7,700,359	align="right"	$5,086,325
	Jim Newberger (R)	align="right"	$210,846	align="right"	$191,815	align="right"	$19,030
Source: Federal Election Commission[16]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Jim Newberger (R)	Paula Overby (G)	Dennis Schuller (LMN)	Other	Undecided
Change Research[17]	November 2–4, 2018	953	–	align=center	55%	40%	2%	3%	–	–
Research Co.[18]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	align=center	53%	33%	–	–	2%	12%
SurveyUSA[19]	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 5.3%	align=center	57%	34%	–	–	1%	7%
St. Cloud State University[20]	October 15–30, 2018	420	–	align=center	54%	28%	–	–	–
Mason-Dixon[21]	October 15–17, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	56%	33%	2%	2%	–	8%
Change Research[22]	October 12–13, 2018	1,413	–	align=center	50%	41%	2%	5%	–	2%
Marist College[23]	September 30 – October 4, 2018	637 LV	± 4.9%	align=center	60%	32%	4%	–	<1%	4%
				align=center	63%	33%	–	–	<1%	4%
		860 RV	± 4.2%	align=center	59%	32%	5%	–	<1%	5%
				align=center	62%	33%	–	–	<1%	5%
Mason-Dixon[24]	September 10–12, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	60%	30%	1%	3%	–	6%
SurveyUSA[25]	September 6–8, 2018	574	± 4.9%	align=center	53%	38%	–	–	2%	8%
Suffolk University[26]	August 17–20, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	34%	1%	1%	–	11%
Emerson College[27]	August 8–11, 2018	500	± 4.6%	align=center	50%	26%	–	–	–	24%
BK Strategies[28]	June 24–25, 2018	1,574	± 2.5%	align=center	57%	37%	–	–	–	6%

Results

Klobuchar won the election by a margin of 24.10%. She carried a clear majority of the state's 87 counties, won every congressional district, and had the biggest statewide margin of any statewide candidate in Minnesota in 2018. Klobuchar ran up huge margins in the state's population centers and trounced Newberger in the counties encompassing the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. As in her 2012 victory, she also won many rural counties. Klobuchar was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2019.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Morrison (largest city: Little Falls)
• Todd (largest city: Long Prairie)
• Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
• Faribault (largest city: Blue Earth)
• Nobles (largest city: Worthington)
• Martin (largest city: Fairmont)
• Cottonwood (largest city: Windom)
• Dodge (largest city: Kasson)
• Murray (largest city: Slayton)
• Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
• Redwood (largest city: Redwood Falls)
• Brown (largest city: New Ulm)
• McLeod (largest city: Hutchinson)
• Meeker (largest city: Litchfield)
• Wright (largest city: Otsego)
• Sibley (largest city: Gaylord)
• Benton (largest city: Sauk Rapids)
• Sherburne (largest city: Elk River)
• Isanti (largest city: Cambridge)
• Chisago (largest city: North Branch)
• Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
• Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
• Marshall (largest city: Warren)
• Lake of the Woods (largest city: Baudette)
• Roseau (largest city: Roseau)
• Clearwater (largest city: Bagley)
• Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
• Becker (largest city: Detroit Lakes)
• Douglas (largest city: Alexandria)
• Otter Tail (largest city: Fergus Falls)
• Cass (largest city: Lake Shore)
• Crow Wing (largest city: Brainerd)
• Hubbard (largest city: Park Rapids)
• Wadena (largest city: Wadena)

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.^[30]

District	Klobuchar	Newberger	Representative
1st	53.93%	42.34%		Tim Walz (115th Congress)
			Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)
2nd	58.96%	37.65%		Jason Lewis (115th Congress)
			Angie Craig (116th Congress)
3rd	62.54%	34.80%		Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)
			Dean Phillips (116th Congress)
4th	71.09%	25.25%		Betty McCollum
5th	81.21%	14.88%		Keith Ellison (115th Congress)
			Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)
6th	48.28%	48.18%		Tom Emmer
7th	48.44%	48.32%		Collin Peterson
8th	53.69%	42.83%		Rick Nolan (115th Congress)
			Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics

Klobuchar!

Newberger	No Answer	% of Voters
Gender
Men	54	45	1	46
Women	67	32	1	54
Age
18–24 years old	79	19	2	6
25–29 years old	60	39	1	5
30–39 years old	63	35	2	12
40–49 years old	57	42	1	13
50–64 years old	61	38	1	29
65 and older	60	39	1	35
Race
White	59	40	1	89
Black	86	12	2	5
Latino	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Race by gender
White men	52	47	1	40
White women	65	34	1	49
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	3
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	59	40	1	17
Some college education	55	43	2	23
Associate degree	54	44	2	17
Bachelor's degree	66	34	N/A	26
Advanced degree	75	25	N/A	16
Education and race
White college graduates	68	31	1	38
White no college degree	53	46	1	51
Non-white college graduates	79	20	1	4
Non-white no college degree	82	17	1	7
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	74	25	1	21
White women without college degrees	59	40	1	28
White men with college degrees	61	39	N/A	17
White men without college degrees	46	53	1	23
Non-whites	80	18	2	11
Income
Under $30,000	67	28	5	14
$30,000–49,999	63	35	2	20
$50,000–99,999	55	44	1	36
$100,000–199,999	64	36	N/A	23
Over $200,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Party ID
Democrats	98	2	N/A	39
Republicans	18	81	1	32
Independents	62	36	2	29
Party by gender
Democratic men	96	4	N/A	14
Democratic women	99	1	N/A	25
Republican men	16	84	N/A	15
Republican women	20	78	2	17
Independent men	56	42	2	16
Independent women	69	29	2	13
Ideology
Liberals	96	3	1	27
Moderates	76	23	1	39
Conservatives	17	82	1	33
Marital status
Married	55	44	1	67
Unmarried	69	28	3	33
Gender by marital status
Married men	51	47	2	31
Married women	58	42	N/A	36
Unmarried men	59	38	3	15
Unmarried women	79	19	2	18
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	59	40	1	13
No	64	35	1	87
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	78	20	2	50
Immigration	29	70	1	22
Economy	37	62	1	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	73	26	1	40
Suburban	58	41	1	32
Rural	49	49	2	28
Source: CNN[31]

See also

• 2018 Minnesota elections

External links

• Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Amy Klobuchar (D) for Senate
• Jim Newberger (R) for Senate
• Paula Overby (G) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 - Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US.
2. Web site: Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race. Star Tribune. December 25, 2016. December 26, 2016. Allison. Sherry.
3. Web site: Candidate Filings. candidates.sos.state.mn.us. 2018-06-08.
4. Web site: Challenger emerges to run against U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar — GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. August 5, 2017. August 5, 2017.
5. Web site: GOP endorses Housley, Newberger for U.S. Senate. 2 June 2018 . 29 August 2018.
6. Web site: Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota. . 16 January 2018 . 29 August 2018.
7. News: Transgender candidate announces U.S. Senate campaign in Minn., seeking Green Party endorsement. McMullen. Maureen. November 11, 2017. Duluth News Tribune. January 25, 2018.
8. News: Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices. Golden. Erin. June 16, 2018. Star Tribune. June 17, 2018.
9. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
10. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
11. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. December 7, 2017.
12. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
13. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
14. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. August 14, 2018.
15. Web site: Sen. Amy Klobuchar and state Rep. Jim Newberger debate at the State Fair. Tim. Pugmire. 22 August 2018 . 29 August 2018.
16. Web site: Campaign finance data . October 31, 2018.
17. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105224752/https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059563908942286853 Change Research
18. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_04Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
19. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eedbecb7-3e86-4c18-9e63-32cc003abf74 SurveyUSA
20. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tbm8hPcbiLAvcSZ3oxqB79CmWNlyCNsl/view?usp=sharing St. Cloud State University
21. http://www.startribune.com/the-poll-numbers-minnesota-senate-race/498049881/ Mason-Dixon
22. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nHaf6GeLgwHTUaJyvQMQcbP7ATsYv0vWAZgqFTKwYCo/htmlview Change Research
23. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MN-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1810081524.pdf Marist College
24. http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-big-lead-for-amy-klobuchar-smaller-edge-for-tina-smith-in-u-s-senate-races/493424451/ Mason-Dixon
25. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cf708ecc-dd5c-40c6-8d4e-df81085c89b9 SurveyUSA
26. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_22_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
27. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf Emerson College
28. https://www.outstate.us/politics/minnesota-statewide-poll-june-24-25-2018/ BK Strategies
29. https://www.outstate.us/politics/minnesota-statewide-poll-june-24-25-2018/ BK Strategies (R)
30. Web site: Daily Kos.
31. News: Minnesota Senate election exit poll . November 20, 2018 . CNN . en.