2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election explained

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.^[2]

During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in 2010.

The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.^[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Bill Lee, businessman^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Diane Black, U.S. representative^[5]
• Randy Boyd, former Tennessee cabinet official^[6]
• Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives^[7]
• Basil Marceaux, perennial candidate^[8]
• Kay White, realtor and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 1st congressional district in 1996 and 1998^[9]

Withdrawn

• Mae Beavers, former state senator^{[10] [11]} (unsuccessfully ran for Wilson County Mayor)^[12]
• Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran in Tennessee's 7th congressional district)^[13]

Declined

• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. representative (successfully ran for the U.S. Senate)^{[14] [15]}
• Tim Burchett, Mayor of Knox County (successfully ran in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district)^{[16] [17] [18]}
• Joe Carr, former state representative, perennial candidate^[19]
• Bob Corker, U.S. senator^{[20] [21] [22]}
• Stephen Fincher, former U.S. representative^{[20] [23]}
• Alberto Gonzales, dean of the Belmont University School of Law and former U.S. Attorney General
• Bill Hagerty, United States Ambassador to Japan and former Tennessee cabinet official^[24]
• Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State^[25]
• Rob Mitchell, Rutherford County, Rutherford County Property Assessor^{[26] [27]}
• Mark Norris, Majority Leader of the Tennessee Senate, appointed as judge to the United States District Court for the Western District of Tennessee^{[28] [29]}
• Andy Ogles, director of Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity (successfully ran for Mayor of Maury County)^[30]
• Ron Ramsey, former lieutenant governor of Tennessee and candidate for Governor of Tennessee in 2010^{[20] [31]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black	Randy Boyd	Beth Harwell	Bill Lee	Other	Undecided
JMC Analytics[32]	July 18–21, 2018	500	± 4.4%	19%	20%	16%	align=center	26%	1%[33]	17%
Emerson College[34]	July 11–14, 2018	266	± 6.4%	align=center	27%	22%	14%	19%	3%	14%
Data Orbital[35]	June 27–30, 2018	700	± 3.7%	align=center	24%	23%	10%	19%	–	align=center	24%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[36]	June 25–28, 2018	1,040	± 3.1%	27%	align=center	33%	7%	20%	–	13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[37]	May 14–17, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	41%	28%	8%	9%	–	15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)[38]	May 4–6, 2018	800	–	align=center	41%	26%	6%	11%	–	15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	April 2018	–	–	align=center	33%	30%	5%	13%	–	–
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	March 2018	–	–	31%	31%	10%	10%	–	–
TargetPoint/GQR[39]	March 7–14, 2018	390	± 5.0%	align=center	25%	20%	6%	7%	2%[40]	align=center	37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)[41]	February 5–11, 2018	600	± 4.0%	22%	align=center	25%	4%	18%	–	align=center	30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[42]	December 12–18, 2017	1,028	± 3.1%	align=center	22%	12%	6%	4%	4%[43]	align=center	53%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Karl Dean, former Mayor of Nashville, 2007–2015^[44]

Eliminated in primary

• Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives^[45]
• Mezianne Vale Payne, retiree^[46]

Declined

• Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator
• Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015^{[47] [48]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Karl Dean	Craig Fitzhugh	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[49]	July 11–14, 2018	206	± 7.3%	align=center	44%	14%	9%	33%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 7–14, 2018	288	± 5.8%	align=center	41%	11%	–	align=center	44%

Results

Independents

Candidates

• Mark CoonRippy Brown (Independent)
• Sherry L. Clark (Libertarian)^[50]
• Justin Cornett (Libertarian)^[50]
• Gabriel Fancher (Libertarian)^[50]
• Sean Bruce Fleming (Libertarian)^[50]
• William Andrew Helmstetter (Libertarian)^[50]
• Cory King (Libertarian)^[50]
• Matthew Koch (Libertarian)^[50]
• Yvonne Neubert (Green)
• Alfred Shawn Rapoza (Libertarian)^[50]
• Chad Riden, comedian (Independent)^[50]
• Heather Scott (Libertarian)^[50]
• George Blackwell Smith IV (Libertarian)^[50]
• Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Libertarian)^[50]
• Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Libertarian)^[50]
• Mike Toews (Libertarian)^[50]
• Rick Tyler, candidate for TN-03 in 2016^[8]
• Vinnie Vineyard (Funkmaster V from Wrestling With Ghosts) ^[50] (Libertarian)
• Jaron D. Weidner (Libertarian)^[50]
• Joe B. Wilmoth (Independent)^[50]
• Patrick Whitlock (Independent)

Notes

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[51]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[52]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[53]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[54]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[56]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[57]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[58]		November 5, 2018
Politico[59]		November 5, 2018
Governing[60]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Lee (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Other	Undecided
Targoz Market Research[61]	October 28–31, 2018	480	–	align=center	53%	44%	–	2%
Emerson College[62]	October 28–30, 2018	621	± 4.0%	align=center	54%	41%	2%	3%
Fox News[63]	October 27–30, 2018	718 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	54%	37%	2%	7%
	850 RV	± 3.0%	align=center	52%	36%	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling[64]	October 27–29, 2018	780	± 3.5%	align=center	56%	44%	–	–
CNN/SSRS[65]	October 24–29, 2018	764 LV	± 4.3%	align=center	52%	42%	0%	4%
	871 RV	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	41%	0%	5%
East Tennessee State University[66]	October 22–29, 2018	495	± 4.4%	align=center	48%	36%	5%	9%
Cygnal (R)[67]	October 26–27, 2018	497	± 4.4%	align=center	59%	36%	3%	2%
Marist College[68]	October 23–27, 2018	471 LV	± 5.7%	align=center	57%	40%	1%	3%
	764 RV	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	39%	1%	4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS[69]	October 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.9%	align=center	48%	37%	0%	12%
Targoz Market Research[70]	October 9–12, 2018	558 LV	–	align=center	56%	44%	–	–
	801 RV	–	align=center	49%	39%	–	12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[71]	October 8–11, 2018	593	± 4.2%	align=center	59%	33%	–<	-- included, numbers not visible -->	8%
Fox News[72]	September 29 – October 2, 2018	666 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	53%	36%	1%	10%
	806 RV	± 3.5%	align=center	52%	35%	1%	10%
SurveyMonkey[73]	September 9–24, 2018	1,609	± 3.3%	align=center	46%	35%	–	19%
Vox Populi Polling[74]	September 16–18, 2018	567	± 4.1%	align=center	55%	45%	–	–
CNN/SSRS[75]	September 11–15, 2018	723 LV	± 4.3%	align=center	52%	43%	0%	3%
	852 RV	± 3.9%	align=center	49%	43%	0%	5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[76]	September 10–12, 2018	1,038	± 3.0%	align=center	54%	37%	–	9%
Fox News[77]	September 8–11, 2018	686 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	55%	35%	1%	10%
	809 RV	± 3.5%	align=center	52%	34%	2%	12%
Marist College[78]	August 25–28, 2018	538 LV	± 5.1%	align=center	53%	40%	1%	7%
	730 RV	± 4.5%	align=center	51%	39%	1%	9%
Gravis Marketing[79]	August 9–11, 2018	620	± 3.9%	align=center	51%	40%	–	9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[80]	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	align=center	38%	34%	–	28%

with Karl Dean

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Emerson College[81]	July 11–14, 2018	657	± 4.1%	35%	align=center	39%	27%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	align=center	46%	35%	19%
Gravis Marketing[82]	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	align=center	40%	31%	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Boyd (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Emerson College[83]	July 11–14, 2018	657	± 4.1%	34%	align=center	36%	30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	align=center	43%	34%	23%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	align=center	38%	35%	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Beth Harwell (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	align=center	43%	33%	25%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	align=center	38%	33%	29%

with Craig Fitzhugh

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mae Beavers (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	36%	36%	28%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	32%	align=center	37%	32%

Results

|}

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Davidson (largest city: Nashville)
• Haywood (largest city: Brownsville)
• Shelby (largest city: Memphis)

By congressional district

Lee won 7 of 9 congressional districts.^[84]

District	Lee	Dean	Representative
		76.2%	22.7%		Phil Roe
	63.5%	35.4%		Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress)
			Tim Burchett (116th Congress)
		64.0%	35.0%		Chuck Fleischmann
		66.0%	33.0%		Scott DesJarlais
		35.6%	59.3%		Jim Cooper
	69.7%	29.3%		Diane Black (115th Congress)
			John Rose (116th Congress)
	65.4%	32.6%		Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress)
			Mark Green (116th Congress)
		66.5%	32.2%		David Kustoff
		21.5%	74.9%		Steve Cohen

See also

• 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee
• 2018 Tennessee elections

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Karl Dean (D) for Governor
• Bill Lee (R) for Governor
• Chad Riden (I) for Governor
• Vinnie Vineyard (L) for Governor

Notes and References

1. News: November 6, 2018 . Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2018 . Tennessee Secretary of State . February 28, 2023 .
2. News: Almukhtar . Sarah . 2 August 2018 . Tennessee Primary Election Results . The New York Times .
3. Web site: Tennessee Gubernatorial Election Has Greatest Number of Candidates for a Regularly-Scheduled Statewide Election in U.S. History - Ballot Access News. ballot-access.org. September 8, 2018 .
4. News: Republican Bill Lee announces run for governor of Tennessee. The Tennessean. 2017-04-23. en.
5. Web site: Diane Black enters race for governor of Tennessee. The Tennessean. Garrison. Joey. August 2, 2017. August 2, 2017.
6. Web site: Randy Boyd announces plans to run for Tennessee governor. Reinke. Kelly. 2017-03-06. WATE.com . 2024-10-13.
7. News: Beth Harwell enters 2018 governor's race touting experience and leadership. The Tennessean. 2017-07-16. en.
8. Web site: Well-known unconventional hopefuls running for Tennessee governor. Sher, Andy. Chattanooga Times Free Press. April 6, 2018. April 7, 2018.
9. News: Kay White officially enters 2018 governor's race, makes announcement in Jonesborough. 2017-07-23. WATE 6 On Your Side. 2017-11-12. en-US.
10. News: Mae Beavers says she's running for governor of Tennessee. The Tennessean. 2017-05-28. en.
11. Web site: Tennessee 2018 General Election. www.thegreenpapers.com.
12. Web site: Humbles. Andy. Wilson County 'engaged' in Aug. 2 election, deadline reveals numerous contested races. The Tennessean. 6 April 2018. en.
13. News: Sen. Mark Green will not re-enter 2018 governor's race. The Tennessean. 2017-06-02. en.
14. Web site: Lee Co.'s Bill Lee exploring Republican run for governor. May 3, 2016. The Tennessean. May 24, 2016.
15. News: Marsha Blackburn won't challenge Sen. Corker, will seek re-election. The Tennessean. Ebert. Joel. June 6, 2017. June 6, 2017.
16. News: Tim Burchett will run for office, which one is anyone's guess. Knoxville News Sentinel. Whetstone. Tyler. May 8, 2017. June 3, 2017.
17. News: Knox County Mayor Burchett rules out run for governor. Knoxville News Sentinel. Whetstone. Tyler. June 26, 2017. July 21, 2017.
18. News: Tim Burchett to run for Congress. Knoxville News Sentinel. Whetstone. Tyler. August 2, 2017. August 8, 2017.
19. Web site: Joe Carr leaves door open to possible 2018 gubernatorial bid. The Tennessean. Ebert. Joel. February 20, 2017. February 26, 2017.
20. News: Senate Control Could Decide Opportunities in Tennessee . Roll Call . Emily Cahn . March 5, 2014 . November 26, 2014.
21. Web site: Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam Isn't Ruling Out Senate Run. WKMS. February 23, 2017. February 24, 2017.
22. Web site: Talking Trump with Tennessee's junior U.S. senator. Johnson City Press. Houk. Robert. June 4, 2017. June 6, 2017.
23. Web site: Stephen Fincher endorses Diane Black for governor. The Jackson Sun. Yusuf. Omer. August 14, 2017. August 14, 2017.
24. News: Tennessee's 2018 governor's race: Who's in, out, undecided. The Tennessean. Ebert. Joel. June 14, 2017. June 14, 2017.
25. Web site: Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett won't seek governorship in '18 . Times Free Press . November 22, 2014 . November 26, 2014.
26. Web site: Rob Mitchell considers run for governor. The Murfreesboro Post. Stockard. Sam. June 6, 2017. June 6, 2017.
27. Web site: Rutherford County Property Assessor Rob Mitchell not running for Governor. WGNS. July 20, 2017. July 21, 2017.
28. Web site: Mark Norris says he's moving toward gubernatorial bid. The Tennessean. Ebert. Joel. January 11, 2017. February 26, 2017.
29. News: Trump nominates Senate Leader Mark Norris, three others as federal judges in Tennessee. The Tennessean. 2017-07-13. en.
30. Web site: State of Tennessee: Maury County Republican Primary . 2024-10-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190212011544/http://www.maurycounty-tn.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=5085 . 2019-02-12 . dead .
31. Web site: Possible Tennessee governor candidates for 2018 . The Jackson Sun . Erik Schelzig . November 9, 2014 . November 26, 2014.
32. http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tennessee-Executive-Summary-II.pdf JMC Analytics
33. Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1%
34. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf Emerson College
35. https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/2018/7/02/tn-governor-gop-primary-6s3h7 Data Orbital
36. http://onthehill.tnjournal.net/poll-says-boyd-has-pulled-ahead-of-black-in-gop-gubernatorial-primary/ Triton Polling & Research (R)
37. https://www.scribd.com/document/379969969/TN-Gov-OnMessage-Inc-R-for-Diane-Black-May-2018 OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)
38. http://humphreyonthehill.tnjournal.net/black-surge/ Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)
39. https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/04/diane-black-narrow-lead-new-poll-education-aligned-group/483813002/ TargetPoint/GQR
40. Kay White 2%
41. http://humphreyonthehill.tnjournal.net/gop-govs-poll-shows-tight-race-among-top-3/ North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)
42. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BygPDvU_T-LiNFE2QnU4UkhOTTgtWUQ4VVpzUEFmWHFzdEZr/view Triton Polling & Research (R)
43. Mae Beavers 4%
44. Web site: Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean to run for governor of Tennessee. The Tennessean. Garrison. Joey. February 26, 2017. February 26, 2017.
45. Web site: Craig Fitzhugh to run for governor of Tennessee, setting up contested Democratic primary. The Tennessean. Garrison. Joey. August 6, 2017. August 8, 2017.
46. Web site: Mezianne Payne announces candidacy for governorship. 2018-07-04. https://web.archive.org/web/20180704093427/http://www.lebanondemocrat.com/Politics/2018/03/08/Mezianne-Payne-announces-candidacy-for-governorship.html?lp=2&ci=stream. 2018-07-04. dead.
47. Web site: New names dropped in 2016 Tennessee governor's race. Sher. Andy. November 9, 2015. Chattanooga Times Free Press. May 24, 2016.
48. Web site: Fitzhugh leaning toward run against Dean for governor; Freeman out. The Tennessean. Garrison. Joey. February 27, 2017. February 27, 2017.
49. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf Emerson College
50. Web site: Filed petitions . sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com .
51. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
52. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
53. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
54. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
55. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
56. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
57. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
58. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. 20 October 2022 .
59. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
60. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
61. https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2018/11/3/tennessee-poll-the-race-for-senate-is-too-close-to-call Targoz Market Research
62. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv Emerson College
63. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-tennessee-senate-poll-10-31-2018 Fox News
64. https://web.archive.org/web/20181031052954/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TN-Statewide-Topline-Results-10.30.18.pdf Vox Populi Polling
65. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/11/01/rel2_tn.pdf CNN/SSRS
66. https://www.etsu.edu/cas/sociology/asrl/ East Tennessee State University
67. http://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42501-Cygnal-TN-Toplines.pdf Cygnal (R)
68. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_TN-NOS-and-Tables_Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_1810291307.pdf Marist College
69. https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/toplines-midterm-poll-2018.pdf Vanderbilt University/SSRS
70. https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2018/10/15/the-race-to-elect-tennessees-next-senator-may-be-closer-than-many-expect Targoz Market Research
71. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tnsen-2.html NYT Upshot/Siena College
72. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tennessee-poll-document-10-3 Fox News
73. http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyTennesseePollToplinesMethodology102.pdf SurveyMonkey
74. https://web.archive.org/web/20180920234528/https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TN-Statewide-Survey-Toplines-Sept.-2018.pdf Vox Populi Polling
75. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/09/17/rel1_tn.pdf CNN/SSRS
76. https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/elections/article/21022750/competing-polls-show-blackburn-bredesen-with-lead Triton Polling & Research (R)
77. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-tennessee-912.html Fox News
78. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Tennessee-Tables-of-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_September-2018_1809051213.pdf Marist College
79. http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf Gravis Marketing
80. http://onthehill.tnjournal.net/poll-finds-black-leads-dean-11-points-hypothetical-governor-match-beavers-tied/ Triton Polling & Research (R)
81. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf Emerson College
82. http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/ Gravis Marketing
83. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf Emerson College
84. Web site: Dra 2020 .