2016 United States presidential election in Michigan explained

See main article: 2016 United States presidential election.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. At that time, Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Prior to the election, Michigan was considered to be a state Clinton was favored to win. However, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This made Michigan 2.33% more Republican than the nation-at-large. The state was the last to be called by most major news networks due to the close nature and the need to count provisional and absentee ballots; most networks declared Trump the winner of Michigan's electors three weeks after Election Day.^{[3] [4]} This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential elections, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all.^[5] By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.

Michigan's largest county, Wayne County, home to Detroit, voted for Clinton by 37 points. She also managed to hold on to suburban Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where residents tend to be more diverse and more white-collar, where instead third-party candidates gained votes, whilst Trump flipped the state's third largest county, Macomb County, which is home to more socially conservative but economically populist white blue-collar workers. As of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, this is the last time in which Kent County and Leelanau County voted for the Republican candidate.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary.

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.

Results

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:^[6]

Republican primary

Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.^[7]

Debate

Detroit, March 3

Candidate	Airtime[8]	Polls[9]
	26:40	35.6%
	19:23	19.8%
	13:32	17.4%
	15:20	8.8%

The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan.^[10] It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel.^[11] Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators.^[12] It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm.^[13] Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.^{[14] [15]}

Results

Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

General election

Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since 1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day.^[16] Trump was able to win the state for the first time since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988,^[17] albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day, Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later,^[18] an error which had been common in many sources at the 2000 election, in the states of Florida and New Mexico. Donald Trump's upset victory highlighted Michigan's new status as a swing state, being bitterly contested in the 2020 election, when former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden narrowly flipped it back into the Democratic column, and in 2024 when Trump flipped it back into the Republican column. Trump's State Campaign was run by Scott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director), Christopher Morris (Field Director), and Tia Jurkiw (Events Coordinator).^{[19] [20]}

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times[21]		November 6, 2016
CNN[22]		November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[23]		November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[24]		November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[25]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[26]		November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]		November 7, 2016
Fox News[28]		November 7, 2016

Polling

Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%.^[29] The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%.^[30] Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.

Minor candidates

The following were given write-in status:^[31]

• Cherunda Fox
• Ben Hartnell
• Tom Hoefling
• Laurence Kotlikoff
• Evan McMullin
• Mike Maturen
• Monica Moorehead

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	Donald Trump	Mike Pence	2,279,543	47.50%	16
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	Tim Kaine	2,268,869	47.27%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	Bill Weld	172,136	3.59%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	Ajamu Baraka	51,463	1.07%	0
	U.S. Taxpayers'	Darrell L. Castle	Scott N. Bradley	16,139	0.34%	0
	Independent	Evan McMullin (write-in)	-	8,183	0.17%	0
	Natural Law	Mimi Soltysik	Angela Nicole Walker	2,209	0.05%	0
	-	Others	-	772	0.02%	0
Totals				4,799,284	100.00%	16

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Alcona		4,201		67.78%		1,732		27.94%		265		4.28%		2,469		39.84%		6,198
	Alger		2,585		57.22%		1,663		36.81%		270		5.97%		922		20.41%		4,518
	Allegan		34,183		60.91%		18,050		32.16%		3,887		6.93%		16,133		28.75%		56,120
	Alpena		9,090		61.55%		4,877		33.02%		801		5.43%		4,213		28.53%		14,768
	Antrim		8,469		61.97%		4,448		32.55%		750		5.48%		4,021		29.42%		13,667
	Arenac		4,950		64.04%		2,384		30.84%		395		5.12%		2,566		33.20%		7,729
	Baraga		2,158		61.34%		1,156		32.86%		204		5.80%		1,002		28.48%		3,518
	Barry		19,202		62.92%		9,114		29.87%		2,201		7.21%		10,088		33.05%		30,517
	Bay		28,328		53.17%		21,642		40.62%		3,304		6.21%		6,686		12.55%		53,274
	Benzie		5,539		54.16%		4,108		40.16%		581		5.68%		1,431		14.00%		10,228
	Berrien		38,647		53.65%		29,495		40.95%		3,889		5.40%		9,152		12.70%		72,031
	Branch		11,786		66.73%		5,061		28.65%		816		4.62%		6,725		38.08%		17,663
	Calhoun		31,494		53.47%		24,157		41.01%		3,251		5.52%		7,337		12.46%		58,902
	Cass		14,243		63.04%		7,270		32.18%		1,082		4.78%		6,973		30.86%		22,595
	Charlevoix		8,674		59.19%		5,137		35.06%		843		5.75%		3,537		24.13%		14,654
	Cheboygan		8,683		63.51%		4,302		31.47%		687		5.02%		4,381		32.04%		13,672
	Chippewa		9,122		58.65%		5,379		34.59%		1,051		6.76%		3,743		24.06%		15,552
	Clare		8,505		63.24%		4,249		31.59%		695		5.17%		4,256		31.65%		13,449
	Clinton		21,636		52.85%		16,492		40.29%		2,809		6.86%		5,144		12.56%		40,937
	Crawford		4,354		63.62%		2,110		30.83%		380		5.55%		2,244		32.79%		6,844
	Delta		11,121		59.81%		6,436		34.61%		1,037		5.58%		4,685		25.20%		18,594
	Dickinson		8,580		64.84%		3,923		29.65%		729		5.51%		4,657		35.19%		13,232
	Eaton		27,609		48.80%		24,938		44.08%		4,028		7.12%		2,671		4.72%		56,575
	Emmet		10,616		55.89%		6,972		36.71%		1,406		7.40%		3,644		19.18%		18,994
	Genesee		84,175		42.59%		102,751		51.99%		10,715		5.42%		-18,576		-9.40%		197,641
	Gladwin		8,124		64.77%		3,794		30.25%		624		4.98%		4,330		34.52%		12,542
	Gogebic		4,018		54.42%		2,925		39.62%		440		5.96%		1,093		14.80%		7,383
	Grand Traverse		27,413		52.73%		20,965		40.33%		3,607		6.94%		6,448		12.40%		51,985
	Gratiot		9,880		60.01%		5,666		34.41%		919		5.58%		4,214		25.60%		16,465
	Hillsdale		14,095		70.69%		4,799		24.07%		1,046		5.24%		9,296		46.62%		19,940
	Houghton		8,475		53.77%		6,018		38.18%		1,268		8.05%		2,457		15.59%		15,761
	Huron		10,692		67.06%		4,579		28.72%		673		4.22%		6,113		38.34%		15,944
	Ingham		43,868		33.20%		79,110		59.87%		9,157		6.93%		-35,242		-26.67%		132,135
	Ionia		16,635		61.52%		8,352		30.89%		2,052		7.59%		8,283		30.63%		27,039
	Iosco		8,345		62.14%		4,345		32.36%		739		5.50%		4,000		29.78%		13,429
	Iron		3,675		61.66%		2,004		33.62%		281		4.72%		1,671		28.04%		5,960
	Isabella		12,338		48.31%		11,404		44.65%		1,798		7.04%		934		3.66%		25,540
	Jackson		39,793		56.75%		25,795		36.78%		4,537		6.47%		13,998		19.97%		70,125
	Kalamazoo		51,034		40.41%		67,148		53.17%		8,117		6.42%		-16,114		-12.76%		126,299
	Kalkaska		6,116		69.24%		2,280		25.81%		437		4.95%		3,836		43.43%		8,833
	Kent		148,180		47.66%		138,683		44.61%		24,031		7.73%		9,497		3.05%		310,894
	Keweenaw		814		56.76%		527		36.75%		93		6.49%		287		20.01%		1,434
	Lake		3,159		58.96%		1,939		36.19%		260		4.85%		1,220		22.77%		5,358
	Lapeer		30,037		66.48%		12,734		28.18%		2,412		5.34%		17,303		38.30%		45,183
	Leelanau		7,239		48.61%		6,774		45.49%		879		5.90%		465		3.12%		14,892
	Lenawee		26,430		57.09%		16,750		36.18%		3,118		6.73%		9,680		20.91%		46,298
	Livingston		65,680		61.68%		34,384		32.29%		6,425		6.03%		31,296		29.39%		106,489
	Luce		1,756		67.77%		681		26.28%		154		5.95%		1,075		41.49%		2,591
	Mackinac		3,744		60.94%		2,085		33.94%		315		5.12%		1,659		27.00%		6,144
	Macomb		224,665		53.58%		176,317		42.05%		18,330		4.37%		48,348		11.53%		419,312
	Manistee		6,915		54.62%		4,979		39.33%		766		6.05%		1,936		15.29%		12,660
	Marquette		14,646		44.09%		16,042		48.29%		2,530		7.62%		-1,396		-4.20%		33,218
	Mason		8,505		57.50%		5,281		35.70%		1,006		6.80%		3,224		21.80%		14,792
	Mecosta		10,305		59.71%		5,827		33.76%		1,127		6.53%		4,478		25.95%		17,259
	Menominee		6,702		61.92%		3,539		32.70%		583		5.38%		3,163		29.22%		10,824
	Midland		23,846		55.75%		15,635		36.55%		3,295		7.70%		8,211		19.20%		42,776
	Missaukee		5,386		73.61%		1,565		21.39%		366		5.00%		3,821		52.22%		7,317
	Monroe		43,261		57.95%		26,863		35.98%		4,531		6.07%		16,398		21.97%		74,655
	Montcalm		16,907		63.18%		7,874		29.42%		1,979		7.40%		9,033		33.76%		26,760
	Montmorency		3,498		69.52%		1,287		25.58%		247		4.90%		2,211		43.94%		5,032
	Muskegon		36,127		45.89%		37,304		47.39%		5,292		6.72%		-1,177		-1.50%		78,723
	Newaygo		15,173		66.60%		6,212		27.27%		1,397		6.13%		8,961		39.33%		22,782
	Oakland		289,203		43.23%		343,070		51.29%		36,652		5.48%		-53,867		-8.06%		668,925
	Oceana		7,228		60.59%		3,973		33.30%		729		6.11%		3,255		27.29%		11,930
	Ogemaw		6,827		65.39%		3,030		29.02%		583		5.59%		3,797		36.37%		10,440
	Ontonagon		2,066		60.18%		1,176		34.26%		191		5.56%		890		25.92%		3,433
	Osceola		7,336		69.15%		2,705		25.50%		568		5.35%		4,631		43.65%		10,609
	Oscoda		2,843		69.48%		1,044		25.51%		205		5.01%		1,799		43.97%		4,092
	Otsego		8,266		65.55%		3,556		28.20%		788		6.25%		4,710		37.35%		12,610
	Ottawa		88,467		61.50%		44,973		31.26%		10,408		7.24%		43,494		30.24%		143,848
	Presque Isle		4,488		61.84%		2,400		33.07%		369		5.09%		2,088		28.77%		7,257
	Roscommon		8,141		62.16%		4,287		32.74%		668		5.10%		3,854		29.42%		13,096
	Saginaw		45,469		47.97%		44,396		46.84%		4,915		5.19%		1,073		1.13%		94,780
	Sanilac		13,446		69.85%		4,873		25.32%		930		4.83%		8,573		44.53%		19,249
	Schoolcraft		2,556		61.19%		1,369		32.77%		252		6.04%		1,187		28.42%		4,177
	Shiawassee		19,230		56.37%		12,546		36.78%		2,335		6.85%		6,684		19.59%		34,111
	St. Clair		49,051		62.88%		24,553		31.48%		4,399		5.64%		24,498		31.40%		78,003
	St. Joseph		14,884		62.10%		7,526		31.40%		1,557		6.50%		7,358		30.70%		23,967
	Tuscola		17,102		65.96%		7,429		28.65%		1,397		5.39%		9,673		37.31%		25,928
	Van Buren		17,890		53.77%		13,258		39.84%		2,126		6.39%		4,632		13.93%		33,274
	Washtenaw		50,631		26.64%		128,483		67.59%		10,965		5.77%		-77,852		-40.95%		190,079
	Wayne		228,993		29.26%		519,444		66.36%		34,282		4.38%		-290,451		-37.10%		782,719
	Wexford		10,000		65.06%		4,436		28.86%		934		6.08%		5,564		36.20%		15,370
Totals	2,279,543	47.25%	2,268,839	47.03%	276,160	5.72%	10,704	0.22%	4,824,542

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
^[32]

• Bay (largest city: Bay City)
• Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
• Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
• Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood)
• Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant)
• Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
• Macomb (largest city: Warren)
• Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
• Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
• Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)
• Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
• Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)

By congressional district

Trump won 9 of 14 congressional districts.^[33]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
	58%	37%		Dan Benishek
			Jack Bergman
		55%	38%		Bill Huizenga
		52%	42%		Justin Amash
		59%	35%		John Moolenaar
		45%	50%		Dan Kildee
		51%	43%		Fred Upton
		56%	39%		Tim Walberg
		51%	44%
		44%	51%
	64%	32%		Candice Miller
			Paul Mitchell
		49%	45%
		34%	61%
		18%	79%
		18%	79%

Recount

The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28.^[34] The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day, Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign requested a hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives.^[35] The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5.^[35] Finally, the recount was halted on December 7 after a federal judge issued an order to Michigan's Board of Elections, thus making Trump's win official.^[36]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Michigan
• First presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

External links

• 2016 Michigan Election Results
• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

Notes and References

1. Web site: SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics. Michigan.gov.
2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. November 25, 2020.
3. Web site: Shepherd . Steven . Michigan Certifies Trump as Winner . .
4. Web site: Diaz . Jennifer Agiesta,Daniella . 2016-11-28 . Trump wins Michigan, state officials say CNN Politics . 2024-08-13 . CNN . en.
5. News: Why Trump Won: Working-Class. Cohn. Nate. 2016-11-09. The New York Times. 2017-03-10. 0362-4331.
6. Web site: Michigan Secretary of State: March 2016 Primary Information. Michigan.gov.
7. News: Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Share Harsh Words In Competing Speeches. Npr.org.
8. News: On The Clock: Trump Still Gets The Most Talking Time. Sprunt. Barbara. NPR. March 3, 2016. 2016-03-04.
9. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination.
10. News: Gold. Hadas. Hadas Gold. Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace return for March 3 debate. February 4, 2016. Politico. February 4, 2016.
11. Web site: 2016 presidential debate schedule: Dates, times, moderators and topics. Politico.com. January 19, 2016.
12. News: GOP debate headed to Detroit in March. Detroit News. February 4, 2016.
13. Web site: Feldman. Josh. Fox News Announces Criteria for Next Week's Big GOP Debate. Mediaite.com. March 1, 2016.
14. News: Transcript of the Republican Presidential Debate in Detroit. March 3, 2016. The New York Times. March 4, 2016.
15. Web site: Republican debate: candidates pledge to support Trump if needed – as it happened. March 3, 2016. Guardian. March 4, 2016.
16. https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547 How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election
17. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
18. Web site: Free Press Embarrasses Itself with a Premature Call of Clinton Win in Michigan. Deadlinedetroit.com.
19. Web site: Donald J. Trump for President Campaign Organization 2016 General Election - Michigan. 2020-10-01. www.p2016.org.
20. Web site: 2016-09-19. Forest Hills grad lands big role in national presidential campaign. 2020-10-01. mlive. en.
21. News: Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. . . 2016-11-06 . 2016-11-13.
22. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian. Road to 270: CNN's new election map . March 3, 2019 . . November 4, 2016.
23. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . November 7, 2016 . . en . March 3, 2019 . March 1, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190301010353/https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
24. Web site: 2016 Electoral Map Prediction . November 8, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
25. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House . . 10 February 2019.
26. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
27. Web site: 2016 President . Sabato . Larry J. . Larry Sabato . November 7, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
28. Web site: Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge . . 2016-11-07 . 2016-11-13.
29. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton.
30. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton.
31. Web site: Michigan Bureau of Elections : SUBJECT: Write-in Candidates for November 8, 2016 General Election: FINAL LISTING. Jalp5dai.files.wordpress.com. 19 December 2018.
32. News: Trump flipped 12 counties to win Michigan. en. Detroit News.
33. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The Cook Political Report.
34. News: Gray . Kathleen . Egan. Paul. Board of Canvassers certifies Trump victory in Michigan . . November 28, 2016. November 28, 2016.
35. News: Keneally. Meghan. Everything you need to know about the election recount efforts. 2016-12-09. ABC News. February 24, 2020.
36. News: The Latest: Federal judge agrees to end Michigan recount. 2016-12-07. Associated Press. February 24, 2020.