2016 Montana gubernatorial election explained

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Montana, concurrently with the presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.

In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%.

As of 2024 this is the most recent election where a Democrat won the Governor's office and/or state level office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Bullock, incumbent governor

• Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Bill McChesney, former state representative^[3]

• Running mate: Mike Anderson

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist^{[4] [5] [6]}

• Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner

Eliminated in primary

• Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana^[7]

• Running mate: Niki Sardot

Withdrawn

• Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana^[8]
• Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012^[9] (did not file)

Declined

• Taylor Brown, state senator^[10]
• Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate^[11]
• Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)^[4]
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative (running for re-election)^[4]

Results

Third parties

Independent

Declared

• Christopher Zarcone^[9]

Libertarian

Declared

• Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate^[12]

• Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate

Withdrew

• Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate^[9]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[13]		August 12, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos[14]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[15]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics[17]		November 1, 2016
align=left	Governing[18]		October 27, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Ted Dunlap (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[19]	November 1–7, 2016	449	± 4.6%	44%	align=center	46%	7%	3%
SurveyMonkey[20]	October 31–November 6, 2016	410	± 4.6%	align=center	45%	44%	8%	3%
SurveyMonkey[21]	October 28–November 3, 2016	403	± 4.6%	46%	46%	7%	1%
SurveyMonkey[22]	October 27–November 2, 2016	376	± 4.6%	align=center	48%	43%	7%	2%
SurveyMonkey[23]	October 26–November 1, 2016	385	± 4.6%	align=center	51%	41%	7%	1%
SurveyMonkey[24]	October 25–31, 2016	405	± 4.6%	align=center	53%	39%	7%	1%
Mason-Dixon[25]	October 10–12, 2016	1,003	± 3.2%	align=center	47%	45%	2%	6%
Montana State University Billings[26]	October 3–10, 2016	590	± 4.0%	align=center	44%	32%	3%	20%
-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->with Ryan Zinke Poll source Date(s) administered class=small Sample size class=small Margin of error Steve Bullock (D) Ryan Zinke (R) Other Undecided Gravis Marketing[27] February 24–25, 2015 1,035 ± 3% 44% 44% — 11% Gravis Marketing November 24–25, 2014 836 ± 3% 41% align=center 49% — 10% with Tim Fox Poll source Date(s) administered class=small Sample size class=small Margin of error Steve Bullock (D) Tim Fox (R) Other Undecided Gravis Marketing February 24–25, 2015 1,035 ± 3% align=center 46% 38% — 16% Gravis Marketing November 24–25, 2014 836 ± 3% 41% align=center 45% — 14% Public Policy Polling[28] July 20–22, 2013 741 ± 4% align=center 46% 43% — 11% Results External links Official campaign websites (archived) Steve Bullock (D) for Governor Greg Gianforte (R) for Governor Ron Vandevender (L) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Montana Voter Turnout. Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018 . 2022-05-26.
2. Web site: Bullock files for re-election for governor. March 1, 2016. March 2, 2016. Mike. Dennison. KTVQ. https://web.archive.org/web/20160302111133/http://www.ktvq.com/story/31354697/bullock-files-for-re-election-for-governor. March 2, 2016. dead.
3. Web site: Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race. Independent Record. March 12, 2016. March 12, 2016.
4. News: AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016. November 15, 2014. The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014.
5. News: Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor. The Montana Standard. McCumber. David. August 17, 2015. August 18, 2015.
6. Web site: Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor . The Missoulian. January 20, 2016. January 20, 2016. Bobby. Calvin.
7. Web site: Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race. Dennis. Bragg. 2017-03-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20170306135504/http://www.kpax.com/story/31469562/nelson-jumps-into-montana-gubernatorial-race. 2017-03-06. dead.
8. News: Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor. Billings Gazette. January 27, 2016. January 28, 2016.
9. Web site: First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field. Bozeman Daily Chronicle. February 1, 2015. February 3, 2015. Troy. Carter. February 5, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150205022335/http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/first-contestant-enters-gop-gubernatorial-field/article_a80be001-bb47-5681-bd23-c97aa7e88916.html. dead.
10. News: Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor. Northern Broadcasting System. Flint. Aaron. January 26, 2015. March 7, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150402215458/http://www.northernbroadcasting.com/Talk/FlintReportHeadlines/tabid/519/ID/12478/Report-Taylor-Brown-Doesnt-Rule-Out-Run-for-Governor.aspx. April 2, 2015. dead.
11. Web site: Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races. Governing. Jacobson. Louis. January 23, 2015. March 24, 2015.
12. Web site: Libertarian from Conner running for governor. Independent Record. March 20, 2016. August 11, 2016. Perry. Backus.
13. Web site: 2016 Governor Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015115045/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings/139364 . October 15, 2018 . live.
14. Web site: Elections 2015-16 . Daily Kos . October 15, 2018 .
15. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170612232401/http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2016-gubernatorial-ratings-november-3-2016 . June 12, 2017 . live.
16. Web site: Our Final 2016 picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015114619/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ . dead .
17. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . October 15, 2018.
18. Web site: 2016 Governors Races Ratings & News. Governing Magazine. October 28, 2016. October 27, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161027090343/http://www.governing.com/governor-races-2016. dead.
19. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArTFlBMU1iNjU1dmM/view SurveyMonkey
20. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArck4xWGRaUEVid1U/view SurveyMonkey
21. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArUGZzeTA3UTZOcWM/view SurveyMonkey
22. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArX25Ba3RrWkZsQTg/view SurveyMonkey
23. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreDluOWJFc0xsSzA/view SurveyMonkey
24. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B99Qs2h04TA7UGZ3aDZjeFBBNW8/view SurveyMonkey
25. http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/the-governor-s-race-is-incredibly-close-bullock-leads-gianforte/article_84f27ffc-68e0-506d-bad7-11c74c9eb10c.html Mason-Dixon
26. http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/newsphotos2016/oct/Montana_Poll_2016.pdf Montana State University Billings
27. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/2016-montana-polling/ Gravis Marketing
28. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_NC_912.pdf Public Policy Polling