2012 United States Senate election in Utah explained

The 2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh term against the Democratic candidate, former state Senator and IBM executive Scott Howell, in a rematch of the 2000 Senate election,with Hatch doing slightly better than in 2000. .^[2] This would be the last time Hatch was elected to the Senate before his retirement in 2018.

Background

Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.5% of the vote against Pete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah. Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory of Mike Lee over Bob Bennett in the 2010 election.^[3]

Republican nomination

Convention

Candidates

Declared

• Tim Aalders, radio talk show host and former business manager^[4]
• Dale Ash, retired sales manager^[4]
• Arlan Brunson, small business owner^[5]
• David Chiu
• Kevin Fisk, small business owner^[4]
• Jeremy Friedbaum, small business owner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[4]
• Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. Senator^[6]
• Chris Herrod, State Representative^[7]
• William "Dub" Lawrence
• Dan Liljenquist, former State Senator^[8]

Declined

• Jason Chaffetz, U.S. Representative^{[9] [10]}
• Jon Huntsman, Jr., former Ambassador to China, former Governor of Utah, former Ambassador to Singapore and candidate for President in 2012^[11]
• David Kirkham, co-founder of the Utah tea party^[12]
• Morgan Philpot, former state representative and 2010 congressional candidate^[13]
• Mark Shurtleff, Utah Attorney General^[14]

Campaign

In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary for Utah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010, Mike Lee defeated Bob Bennett in the 2010 Utah Senate election.^[3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. Senator Mike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary.^[15] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until after Labor Day of 2011.^[16]

In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin endorsed Hatch.^[17] The fiscally conservative 501(c)4 organization Club for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, State Children's Health Insurance Program, No Child Left Behind Act, Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election.^[18] In an interview with Politico, Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor of Equal Opportunity to Serve Act and the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993.^[19] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.

Polling

In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% went for Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided.^[20] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% went for Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod.^[21]

Results

Primary

Candidates

• Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Dan Liljenquist, former state senator

Campaign

After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist.^[22]

Polling

Poll source				Orrin Hatch	Dan Liljenquist	Other/ Undecided
align=left	Utah Data Points/Key Research[23]	June 12–19, 2012	500	±4.4%		56%	25%	18%
align=left	Deseret News/KSL-TV[24]	June 15–21, 2012	737	±3.6%		60%	32%	8%

Results

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

• Pete Ashdown, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006^[25]
• Scott Howell, former state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000^[26]

Results

Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary.^[27]

General election

Candidates

• Orrin Hatch (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Scott Howell (Democratic), former state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000
• Shaun McCausland (Constitution)^[28]
• Daniel Geery (Justice)^[28]
• Bill Barron (Independent)^[28]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Scott Howell (D)	$421,086	$420,779	$306	$0
	Orrin Hatch (R)	$11,577,851	$13,140,209	$779,719	$515,845
	William Barron (I)	$17,157	$14,116	$3,038	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[29] [30] [31]

Top contributors

Scott Howell	Contribution	Orrin Hatch	Contribution	William Barron	Contribution
International Union of Operating Engineers	$10,000	OC Tanner Inc	$72,010	Peace River Citrus Products	$2,000
Altaview Orthodontics	$5,000	Cancer Treatment Centers of America	$67,500	Cirque Property	$1,000
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers	$5,000	Cerberus Capital Management	$65,000
International Association of Iron Workers	$5,000	Fresenius Medical Care	$65,500
Intermountain Healthcare National Education Association	$5,000	Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$54,500
Shurtleff Construction	$5,000	Ernst & Young	$53,000
St Mark's Hospital	$5,000	PricewaterhouseCoopers	$42,008
United Steelworkers	$5,000	Herbalife International	$41,900
Sutter Health	$4,500	Marriott International	$39,500
IBM Corporation	$3,150	Apollo Global Management	$39,000
Source: OpenSecrets[32]

Top industries

Scott Howell	Contribution	Orrin Hatch	Contribution	William Barron	Contribution
Retired	$43,100	Financial Institutions	$1,113,746	Retired	$4,050
Health Professionals	$17,000	Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$834,601	Agribusiness	$2,000
Building Trade Unions	$15,000	Lobbyists	$508,567	Real Estate	$1,000
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	$14,500	Insurance	$495,968	Education	$750
Lawyers/Law Firms	$12,250	Lawyers/Law Firms	$479,871	Misc Business	$500
Industrial Unions	$10,000	Health Professionals	$447,415
General Contractors	$7,500	Real Estate	$412,394
Automotive	$5,000	Health Services/HMOs	$396,132
Public Sector Unions	$5,000	Leadership PACs	$394,550
High-Tech Industry	$4,900	Oil & Gas	$391,878
Source: OpenSecrets[33]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[34]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[35]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[36]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics[37]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source				Orrin Hatch (R)	Scott Howell (D)	Other/ Undecided
align=left	Deseret News/KSL-TV	June 15–21, 2012	1,228	±2.8%		63%	29%	8%
align=left	Utah State University[38]	October 8–13, 2012	n/a	±7.6%		67%	24%	9%
align=left	Key Research[39]	October 9–13, 2012	500	±4.4%		61%	22%	17%
align=left	Deseret News/KSL[40]	October 26 – November 1, 2012	870	±3.4%		63%	26%	11%

with Dan Liljenquist

with Jason Chaffetz

Poll source				Jason Chaffetz (R)	Jim Matheson (D)	Undecided
align=left	Deseret News/KSL-TV[42]	June 13–16, 2011	406	±5.0%		46%	45%	8%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	July 8–10, 2011	732	±3.6%	42%		47%	11%
align=left	Mason-Dixon[43]	August 8–10, 2011	625	±4.0%		49%	43%	8%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll source				Orrin Hatch (R)	Jim Matheson (D)	Undecided
align=left	Deseret News/KSL-TV	June 13–16, 2011	406	±5.0%	47%	47%	6%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	July 8–10, 2011	732	±3.6%	44%		45%	11%
align=left	Mason-Dixon	August 8–10, 2011	625	±4.0%		48%	43%	9%

Republican primary

Poll source				Orrin Hatch	Jason Chaffetz	Undecided
align=left	Deseret News/KSL-TV	June 13–16, 2011	406	±5.0%		47%	44%	10%
align=left	Public Policy Polling[44]	July 8–10, 2011	406	±4.9%	43%		47%	10%
align=left	Mason-Dixon	August 8–10, 2011	305	±5.7%		49%	39%	12%

Results

By congressional district

Hatch won all 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[45]

District	Hatch	Howell	Representative
		69.84%	25.63%		Rob Bishop
		60.84%	33.85%		Chris Stewart
		70.35%	25.14%
		59.92%	35.62%		Jim Matheson

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah
• 2012 Utah gubernatorial election

External links

• Utah Government Services – Elections
• Campaign finances at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidates issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites

• Bill Barron for Senate
• Daniel Geery for Senate
• Orrin Hatch for Senate
• Scott Howell for Senate
• Shaun McCausland for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 6, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
2. Web site: Sen. Orrin Hatch forced into primary for first time since '76, faces Dan Liljenquist in June . https://web.archive.org/web/20120423033259/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865554450/Hatch-Liljenquist-locked-into-second-round-of-voting-for-GOP-nomination.html . dead . April 23, 2012 . April 21, 2012 . May 9, 2012 . Deseret News.
3. News: Orrin Hatch courts tea party activists, Tea Party Express divided. https://web.archive.org/web/20120608220127/http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/orrin-hatch-faces-tea-party-ac.html. dead. June 8, 2012. February 9, 2011. May 11, 2012. The Washington Post. Rachel. Weiner.
4. Web site: Utah Republican Party Candidates List.
5. Web site: L.A. Brunson Campaign Interview and Announcement. K-Talk Radio. October 25, 2011.
6. Web site: Sen. Hatch: 'I intend to run, and I intend to win'. December 8, 2010. December 11, 2010. The Hill. Sean J.. Miller.
7. Web site: Rep. Chris Herrod joins campaign to defeat Orrin Hatch . January 6, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
8. Web site: Liljenquist is in against Hatch. January 4, 2012. January 9, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
9. Web site: Jason Chaffetz is out, but Orrin Hatch isn't in the clear. August 22, 2011. May 11, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese. Jake. Sherman.
10. Web site: Chaffetz Passes on Hatch Challenge. August 22, 2011. May 11, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. May 10, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120510101944/http://www.rollcall.com/news/jason_chaffetz_passes_on_orrin_hatch_challenge-208262-1.html. dead.
11. Web site: Jon Huntsman rules out another political bid – for now. February 6, 2012. February 8, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Thomas. Burr. https://web.archive.org/web/20120604074413/http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/huntsman/53456955-188/huntsman-says-bid-presidential.html.csp. June 4, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
12. Web site: Tea Party leader Kirkham ready to run for governor. January 6, 2012. January 9, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
13. Web site: Philpot to challenge Herbert in 2012. December 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. Daily Herald. Billy. Hesterman. January 3, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120103083216/http://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/philpot-to-challenge-herbert-in/article_cfacf96e-9f5c-5a46-8d24-34c8f8c1aa01.html. dead.
14. Web site: Two Utah political heavyweights eyeing key races. https://web.archive.org/web/20110613153258/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705374250/Two-Utah-political-heavyweights-eyeing-key-races.html. dead. June 13, 2011. June 9, 2011. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Lisa Riley. Roche.
15. News: Mike Lee: Orrin Hatch Not Getting My Endorsement In 2012 Primary . Huffington Post . February 11, 2011.
16. Web site: Sources say Chaffetz is in against Hatch. June 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
17. Web site: Key National Voice Endorses Orrin Hatch For Senate. June 14, 2011. May 11, 2012. Orrin Hatch for Utah. https://web.archive.org/web/20110711150501/http://www.hatchforsenate.com/_blog/blog/post/Key_National_Voice_Endorses_Orrin_Hatch_For_Senate/. July 11, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
18. Web site: Run, Jason, Run!. June 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. Club for Growth. Barney. Keller. https://web.archive.org/web/20120324120900/http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=15170. March 24, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
19. Web site: Jason Chaffetz leaning toward challenging Orrin Hatch. June 3, 2011. May 11, 2012. Politico. Jake. Sherman.
20. Web site: UtahPolicy.com Poll: Salt Lake County Republicans Prefer Hatch over Liljenquist. https://archive.today/20120729192448/http://utahpolicy.com/view/full_story/17231848/article-UtahPolicy-com-Poll--Salt-Lake-County-Republicans-Prefer-Hatch-over-Liljenquist. dead. July 29, 2012. January 20, 2012. May 11, 2012. Utah Policy. Bryan. Schott.
21. Web site: Liljenquist, Herbert and Swallow lead straw poll results among Box Elder GOP. February 2, 2012. May 11, 2012. Cache Valley Daily. https://web.archive.org/web/20120313062717/http://www.cachevalleydaily.com/news/local/Liljenquist-Herbert-and-Swallow-lead-straw-poll-results-among-Box-Elder-GOP-138622749.html. March 13, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
22. Web site: Orrin Hatch fails to clinch GOP nomination in Utah — by 0.9%. April 21, 2012. May 11, 2012. Hot Air. Allahpundit.
23. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/06/who-is-going-to-win-the-republican-senate-primary/ Utah Data Points/Key Research
24. https://www.deseret.com/2012/6/24/20420612/poll-sen-orrin-hatch-maintains-lead-over-dan-liljenquist-in-gop-primary/ Deseret News/KSL-TV
25. Web site: Pete Ashdown to try again to unseat Sen. Hatch. https://web.archive.org/web/20111110095035/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705393968/Pete-Ashdown-to-try-again-to-unseat-Sen-Hatch.html. dead. November 10, 2011. November 8, 2011. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Lisa Riley. Roche.
26. Web site: From president to school board, candidates file for Utah elections. March 15, 2012. May 11, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
27. Web site: Utah Democrats pick Scott Howell as candidate for U.S. Senate. https://web.archive.org/web/20120423033304/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865554451/Utah-Democratic-Senate-hopefuls-woo-delegate-support-votes-to-be-conducted-later-day.html. dead. April 23, 2012. April 21, 2012. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Marjorie. Cortez.
28. Web site: Hatch faces 9 challengers from within his own party. March 15, 2012. May 11, 2012. Cache Valley Daily. Eric. Frandsen. https://web.archive.org/web/20120318045402/http://www.cachevalleydaily.com/news/local/Hatch-faces-9-challengers-from-within-his-own-party-142870065.html. March 18, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
29. Web site: Howell Campaign Finances.
30. Web site: Hatch Campaign Finances.
31. Web site: Barron Campaign Finances.
32. Web site: Top Contributors 2012 Race: Utah Senate . OpenSecrets.
33. Web site: Top Industries 2012 Race: Utah Senate . OpenSecrets.
34. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
35. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
36. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
37. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
38. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/10/usu-pre-election-poll/ Utah State University
39. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/10/key-research-poll-general-election-predictions/ Key Research
40. https://web.archive.org/web/20121105065630/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865565953/Deseret-NewsKSL-poll-Hatch-holds-huge-lead-in-US-Senate-race-Stewart-Bishop-Chaffetz-favored.html Deseret News/KSL
41. https://web.archive.org/web/20120904092231/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_7121118.pdf Public Policy Polling
42. https://web.archive.org/web/20110623125808/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700145325/Poll-Time-for-Senator-Orrin-Hatch-to-go.html?pg=1 Deseret News/KSL-TV
43. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/52372879-90/hatch-chaffetz-percent-matheson.html.csp?page=1/ Mason-Dixon
44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf Public Policy Polling
45. Web site: Utah 2012 sen-by-cd .