2010 Arizona gubernatorial election explained

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.^[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,^[4] former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994

Declined

• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
• Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.^[5]

Candidates

Declared

• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Withdrew

• Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)^[6]
• Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)^[7]

Declined

• Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff^[8]
• J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
• John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[9]
• Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona^[10]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports[11]	June 16, 2010	align=center	72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports[12]	May 17, 2010	align=center	45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling[13]	April 23–25, 2010	align=center	25%	15%	11%
		align=center	58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[14]	April 13, 2010	align=center	26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports	March 15, 2010	20%	align=center	21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	January 20, 2010	align=center	29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports[16]	November 18, 2009	10%	align=center	22%	—
Public Policy Polling[17]	September 21, 2009	align=center	39%	26%	—

• Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination

Results

• Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot

Libertarian primary

Candidates

• Ronald Cavanaugh
• Barry Hess
• Bruce Olsen
• Alvin Ray Yount

Results

General election

Candidates

• Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
• Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
• Barry Hess (L)
• Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[18]		October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[19]		October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[20]		November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21]		October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[22]		October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports[23]	October 28, 2010	39%	align=center	53%
Public Policy Polling[24]	October 23–24, 2010	44%	align=center	52%
BRC Polls[25]	October 11, 2010	35%	align=center	38%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3, 2010	39%	align=center	55%
Rasmussen Reports[26]	September 7, 2010	38%	align=center	60%
Rasmussen Reports[27]	August 25, 2010	38%	align=center	57%
Rasmussen Reports[28]	July 21, 2010	37%	align=center	56%
Rasmussen Reports[29]	June 29, 2010	35%	align=center	53%
Rasmussen Reports[30]	May 17, 2010	39%	align=center	52%
Rasmussen Reports[31]	April 27, 2010	40%	align=center	48%
Public Policy Polling[32]	April 23–25, 2010	align=center	47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	April 14, 2010	40%	align=center	44%
Rasmussen Reports	March 16, 2010	align=center	45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	January 20, 2010	align=center	43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[33]	November 18, 2009	align=center	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[34]	September 27, 2009	align=center	42%	40%
Public Policy Polling[35]	September 7, 2009	align=center	46%	36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.^[36] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.^{[37] [38]}

Results

County[39]	Jan Brewer Republican		Terry Goddard Democratic		Barry Hess Libertarian		Larry Gist Green		Write-in		Margin		Total votes
	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%		data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"		data-sort-type="number"	%
	Apache		7,002		33.89		12,839		62.14		514		2.48		294		1.4		10		0.04		-5,837		-28.25		20,659
	Cochise		24,974		62.32		13,954		34.82		742		1.85		398		0.99		2		0.00		11,020		27.50		40,070
	Coconino		16,754		43.02		20,792		53.39		880		2.25		505		1.27		13		0.01		-4,038		-10.37		38,942
	Gila		11,163		62.26		6,155		34.32		451		2.51		158		0.88		2		0.01		5,008		27.94		17,929
	Graham		5,994		65.48		2,865		31.30		220		2.40		74		0.80		0		0.00		3,129		34.18		9,153
	Greenlee		1,187		48.48		1,177		48.08		60		2.45		24		0.98		0		0.00		10		0.40		2,448
	La Paz		3,048		67.31		1,330		29.37		80		1.76		70		1.54		0		0.00		1,718		37.94		4,528
	Maricopa		543,045		54.78		415,142		41.88		24,077		2.42		8,600		0.86		280		0.02		127,903		12.90		991,144
	Mohave		39,026		72.65		12,777		23.78		1,307		2.43		601		1.11		4		0.00		26,249		48.87		53,715
	Navajo		16,157		54.49		12,517		42.22		648		2.18		317		1.06		7		0.02		3,640		12.27		29,646
	Pima		148,916		47.18		158,337		50.17		648		0.20		317		0.10		16		0.00		-9,421		-2.99		315,589
	Pinal		45,807		58.28		30,109		38.31		1922		2.44		735		0.93		18		0.02		15,698		19.97		78,591
	Santa Cruz		3,190		31.76		6,608		65.81		138		1.37		105		1.04		0		0.00		-3,418		-34.05		10,041
	Yavapai		53,081		65.21		25,569		31.41		1,830		2.24		900		1.10		8		0.00		27,512		33.80		81,388
	Yuma		19,590		57.22		13,764		40.20		500		1.46		380		1.10		2		0.00		5,826		17.02		34,236
Totals	938,934	54.33	733,935	42.43	38,722	2.24	16,128	0.93	362	0.02	204,999	11.90	1,728,081

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista)
• Gila (Largest city: Payson)
• Graham (Largest city: Safford)
• Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton)
• La Paz (Largest city: Parker)
• Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix)
• Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City)
• Navajo (Largest city: Show Low)
• Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley)
• Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley)
• Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)

External links

• Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
• Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

• Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)

Official campaign sites

• Jan Brewer for Governor
• Terry Goddard for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State. 7 May 2023.
2. Web site: Governor: Napolitano resigns . The Arizona Guardian . January 20, 2009 . September 2, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110721131443/http://www.arizonaguardian.com/azg/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=35&Itemid=58&limitstart=125 . July 21, 2011 . dead . mdy-all .
3. News: Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor . Paul . Davenport . . November 5, 2009 . February 18, 2010 . December 31, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141231171021/http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2009/11/05/20091105arizona-governor-ON.html . dead .
4. Web site: Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona . Terrygoddard.org . 2010-08-17 . 2010-08-21.
5. Web site: Arizona Candidates List . Arizona SOS . August 3, 2010 . August 3, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100716003924/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2010/Primary/FullListing.htm . 16 July 2010 . dead .
6. Web site: Jessica Taylor. Martin drops challenge to Brewer . Politico.Com . 2010-08-21. https://web.archive.org/web/20100801235044/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39553.html. 1 August 2010 . live.
7. Web site: Jessica Taylor. Mills drops campaign against Brewer . Politico.Com . 2010-08-21. https://web.archive.org/web/20100801234918/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39706.html. 1 August 2010 . live.
8. News: Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor . JJ . Hensley . . May 3, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100506051958/http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2010/05/03/20100503joe-arpaio-arizona-governor-ON.html . May 6, 2010 . dead.
9. Web site: Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race . Azcapitoltimes.com . 2010-08-21 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100701144701/http://azcapitoltimes.com/blog/2010/06/01/munger-drops-out-of-gubernatorial-race . July 1, 2010 . live.
10. News: Benson . Matthew . Newton . Casey . Casey Newton . Mary Jo Pitzl . October 11, 2009 . Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10 . . https://web.archive.org/web/20100218021224/http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2009/10/11/20091011politics-insider1011.html . February 18, 2010 . dead.
11. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_gop_primary_for_governor_june_16_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
12. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_republican_primary_for_governor_may_17_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
13. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_430.pdf Public Policy Polling
14. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_republican_primary_for_governor Rasmussen Reports
15. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_gop_primary_for_governor_s_race_january_20_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
16. https://web.archive.org/web/20091125123305/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_gop_primary Rasmussen Reports
17. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_925.pdf Public Policy Polling
18. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
19. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
20. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
21. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final Calls . . October 28, 2010.
22. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .
23. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor Rasmussen Reports
24. http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/23/AZ/18/i8kAz/ Public Policy Polling
25. https://web.archive.org/web/20101123020320/http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-IV-01.pdf BRC Polls
26. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_september_7_2010 Rasmussen Reports
27. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_august_25_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
28. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_july_21_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
29. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_june_29_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
30. https://web.archive.org/web/20100525123801/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_governor_may_17_2010 Rasmussen Reports
31. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor Rasmussen Reports
32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_427.pdf Public Policy Polling
33. https://web.archive.org/web/20091001170118/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_election Rasmussen Reports
34. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/toplines/toplines_2010_arizona_governor_race_september_27_2009/ Rasmussen Reports
35. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_923330.pdf Public Policy Polling
36. Web site: Arizona governor stumbles during debate. https://web.archive.org/web/20211224043519/https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna38981701. dead. December 24, 2021. NBC News.
37. Web site: Category: DC. Talking Points Memo.
38. Web site: Brewer: No more debates – period. Howard Fischer Capitol Media. Services. Arizona Daily Star.
39. Web site: Archived copy . 2014-01-06 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130920230737/http://azsos.gov/election/2010/General/Canvass2010GE.pdf . 2013-09-20 .