| Election Name: | 2003 Lower Saxony state election |
| Country: | Lower Saxony |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 1998 Lower Saxony state election |
| Previous Year: | 1998 |
| Next Election: | 2008 Lower Saxony state election |
| Next Year: | 2008 |
| Seats For Election: | All 183 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony |
| Majority Seats: | 92 |
| Election Date: | 2 February 2003 |
| Turnout: | 3,984,009 (67.0%) 6.8% |
| Leader1: | Christian Wulff |
| Party1: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
| Last Election1: | 62 seats, 35.9% |
| Seats1: | 91 |
| Seat Change1: | 29 |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,925,055 |
| Percentage1: | 48.3% |
| Swing1: | 12.4% |
| Leader2: | Sigmar Gabriel |
| Party2: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election2: | 83 seats, 47.9% |
| Seats2: | 63 |
| Seat Change2: | 20 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,330,156 |
| Percentage2: | 33.4% |
| Swing2: | 14.5% |
| Party4: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election4: | 0 seats, 4.9% |
| Seats4: | 15 |
| Seat Change4: | 15 |
| Popular Vote4: | 323,107 |
| Percentage4: | 8.1% |
| Swing4: | 3.2% |
| Party5: | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| Last Election5: | 12 seats, 7.0% |
| Seats5: | 14 |
| Seat Change5: | 2 |
| Popular Vote5: | 304,532 |
| Percentage5: | 7.6% |
| Swing5: | 0.6% |
| Map Size: | 350px |
| Minister-President | |
| Before Election: | Sigmar Gabriel |
| Before Party: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| After Election: | Christian Wulff |
| After Party: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
The 2003 Lower Saxony state election was held on 2 February 2003 to elect the members of the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) majority government led by Minister-President Sigmar Gabriel was defeated. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came up one seat short of a majority, and formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). CDU leader Christian Wulff was subsequently elected minister-president.
The election in Lower Saxony had larger significance than just in the state itself.[1] Defeat for the Social Democrats in the election would mean they lost their slim majority in the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat.[1] It was thought this might cause the collapse of Gerhard Schröder's national coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Green Party.[1]
The economy was seen as the most important issue in the election, with the Social Democrats suffering as a result.[2]
Opinion polls in December 2002 showed the Christian Democrats in the lead with 43% as against 34% for the Social Democrats.[3]
The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of Lower Saxony.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 1998 result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||
| bgcolor= | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany | Social democracy | Sigmar Gabriel | 47.9% | |||
| bgcolor= | CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany | Christian democracy | Christian Wulff | 35.9% | |||
| bgcolor= | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens | Green politics | 7.0% | ||||
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | CDU | Grüne | FDP | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 state election | data-sort-value="2003-02-02" | 2 Feb 2003 | – | 33.4 | 48.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 14.9 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2003-01-31" | 27–30 Jan 2003 | 1,014 | 33 | 48 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 15 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2003-01-29" | 20–24 Jan 2003 | 1,103 | 35 | 48 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 13 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2003-01-23" | 23 Jan 2003 | ? | 37 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2003-01-22" | 16–20 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 36 | 48 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 12 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2003-01-22" | 13–18 Jan 2003 | 1,008 | 36 | 48 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2003-01-15" | 9–13 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 37 | 46 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2003-01-15" | 6–10 Jan 2003 | 1,027 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2003-01-10" | 6–9 Jan 2003 | 1,044 | 37 | 45 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2003-01-07" | 27 Dec 2002–3 Jan 2003 | 1,122 | 36 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 10 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2002-12-06" | 2–4 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 40 | 45 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2002-11-22" | 14–20 Nov 2002 | 1,003 | 34 | 43 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 9 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2002-09-23" | 23 Sep 2002 | ? | 47 | 36.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 11.5 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2002-09-06" | 30 Aug–4 Sep 2002 | 1,000 | 42 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2002-06-14" | 14 Jun 2002 | 1,000 | 45 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 10 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2002-05-31" | 31 May 2002 | ? | 39 | 37 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2002-04-17" | 17 Apr 2002 | ? | 43 | 41 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2002-03-01" | 21–27 Feb 2002 | 1,000 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2002-03-01" | 11–27 Feb 2002 | 1,327 | 43 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2001-08-31" | 31 Aug 2001 | ? | 44 | 36 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2001-06-22" | 22 Jun 2001 | ? | 46 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2001-02-20" | 20 Feb 2001 | ? | 48 | 35 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 13 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="1999-10-28" | 28 Oct 1999 | ? | 41 | 46 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="1999-10-28" | 21–24 Oct 1999 | 1,000 | 41 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1998 state election | data-sort-value="1998-03-01" | 1 Mar 1998 | – | 47.9 | 35.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 12.0 |
|-! colspan="2" | Party! Votes! %! +/-! Seats ! +/-! Seats %|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Christian Democratic Union (CDU)| align=right| 1,925,055| align=right| 48.3| align=right| 12.4| align=right| 91| align=right| 29| align=right| 49.7|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Social Democratic Party (SPD)| align=right| 1,330,156| align=right| 33.4| align=right| 14.5| align=right| 63| align=right| 20| align=right| 34.4|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Free Democratic Party (FDP)| align=right| 323,107| align=right| 8.1| align=right| 3.2| align=right| 15| align=right| 15| align=right| 8.2|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)| align=right| 304,532| align=right| 7.6| align=right| 0.6| align=right| 14| align=right| 2| align=right| 7.7|-! colspan=8||-| bgcolor=#63B8FF|| align=left | Party for a Rule of Law Offensive (Schill party)| align=right| 40,342| align=right| 1.0| align=right| New| align=right| 0| align=right| New| align=right| 0|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)| align=right| 21,560| align=right| 0.5| align=right| 0.5| align=right| 0| align=right| ±0| align=right| 0|-| bgcolor=|| align=left | Others| align=right| 39,257| align=right| 1.0| align=right| | align=right| 0| align=right| ±0| align=right| 0|-! align=right colspan=2| Total! align=right| 3,984,009! align=right| 100.0! align=right| ! align=right| 183! align=right| 26! align=right| |-! align=right colspan=2| Voter turnout! align=right| ! align=right| 67.0! align=right| 6.8! align=right| ! align=right| ! align=right| |}